Brook Lopez

[BigSlam]

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Lopez was a better high school senior than Bogut or Kamen. He was a better college freshman than Bogut or Kamen. He was a better college sophmore than Bogut or Kamen. And he will be a better NBA player than Bogut or Kamen. And I like both Bogut and Kamen.

Agreed that he will be better than Kaman, but I think that Bogut will always have it over him unless Lopez learns how to pass and think a bit quicker.

[Jonathan Watters]

No doubt about it Cammo.

I have absolutely zero idea where people get some of their ideas about Brook Lopez. There aren't any scouting reports out there that call him a stiff. There aren't any scouting reports out there that say he's an offense-first player. Yet we get a steady stream of folks thinking that is exactly what he'll be in the league.

People, Brook Lopez WASN'T just doing the Mikan drill with himself around the basket. Stanford had zero offensive balance, and Lopez was used an obscenely high amount for a center. Not even Kevin Durant was as big a part of Texas' offense last year as Lopez was of Stanford's, and that is straight from the statistics. Sure, he put back a few of his own misses - as any big guy in college will. But did he ever get a wide open dunk created for him by teammates? Did he ever get single coverage against these 6'6, 200 pounders people seem to think he was facing every night in the Pac-10 (not true, will get to more of that later)? I would be shocked if there was a single post player in the country whose rate of difficult shots to gimmees could even approach Brook Lopez's.

So unless you are Michael Beasley, players with this type of usage rate simply don't shoot 55-60% from the field. I'm not saying Lopez couldn't get better in this area, because he absolutely could. But to act like his 47% is the same as DeAndre Jordan shooting 47% or almost any other player in the country shooting 47% absolutely ludicrous. It simply isn't a viable argument.

And as for defense/rebounding, Brook was significantly better than Robin in both areas. He generally guarded an opponents' key post scorer, and absolutely shut those scorers down. Kevin Love shot 42% in 3 games vs Stanford, and saw his rebounding drop even more dramatically. Given the fact that Robin was on the weakside more often and that Brook didn't get the non-conference to pad his block stats like Robin did, the case can be made that Robin is no better/worse as a shot blocker, also.

The thing that really baffles me is that people seem to think the guy was merely an above average college player this past season. Forget about it. Lopez was the best player in the Pac-10 - he dominated both sides of the ball in a horribly balanced offense, and led that offense to a 2nd place finish in the best conference in the league and a #3 seed. The only reason he wasn't far and away the best player in the conference was a historic season from a certain freshman that he locked up when they went head to head.

Let me repeat - Brook Lopez played the toughest schedule in America this year. Where the average player gets to pad his percentages and efficiency in the non-conference, Lopez didn't get that chance in either of his seasons. He went straight into the toughest conference in the country, where there was only 1 team not capable of competing for a tourney berth. Some of the non-NCAA teams he played? Washington with Jon Brockman, Cal with Devon Hardin, and Arizona St with Jeff Pendergraph.

If there is ANY college player who got an NBA-caliber schedule during his time in college, it was Brook Lopez.

So what am I missing? For two straight years, Lopez has instantly transformed Stanford from downright lousy to very good. He's carried a load that no 7-footer should ever have to carry at the college level for a team with a laughably lacking ability to complement him, and led that team to a 2nd place finish in the toughest conference in the country. He was at his best when it counted in the tournament. He's got just about every tool you could ask for in terms of skill. He's a 7-foot, 260 lb SOPHOMORE that can move well for his size.

So if you honestly believe this guy has a limited upside and is a stiff, could you please comprehensively respond to these arguments?

[UGA Hayes]

^ good post Jonathan. I would also add that Legit Center prospects tend to be considered at least top 3 during the course of their NBA season, and Lopez has been considered a number 3 caliber for a while.

[Cammo101]

No doubt about it Cammo.

I have absolutely zero idea where people get some of their ideas about Brook Lopez. There aren't any scouting reports out there that call him a stiff. There aren't any scouting reports out there that say he's an offense-first player. Yet we get a steady stream of folks thinking that is exactly what he'll be in the league.

People, Brook Lopez WASN'T just doing the Mikan drill with himself around the basket. Stanford had zero offensive balance, and Lopez was used an obscenely high amount for a center. Not even Kevin Durant was as big a part of Texas' offense last year as Lopez was of Stanford's, and that is straight from the statistics. Sure, he put back a few of his own misses - as any big guy in college will. But did he ever get a wide open dunk created for him by teammates? Did he ever get single coverage against these 6'6, 200 pounders people seem to think he was facing every night in the Pac-10 (not true, will get to more of that later)? I would be shocked if there was a single post player in the country whose rate of difficult shots to gimmees could even approach Brook Lopez's.

So unless you are Michael Beasley, players with this type of usage rate simply don't shoot 55-60% from the field. I'm not saying Lopez couldn't get better in this area, because he absolutely could. But to act like his 47% is the same as DeAndre Jordan shooting 47% or almost any other player in the country shooting 47% absolutely ludicrous. It simply isn't a viable argument.

And as for defense/rebounding, Brook was significantly better than Robin in both areas. He generally guarded an opponents' key post scorer, and absolutely shut those scorers down. Kevin Love shot 42% in 3 games vs Stanford, and saw his rebounding drop even more dramatically. Given the fact that Robin was on the weakside more often and that Brook didn't get the non-conference to pad his block stats like Robin did, the case can be made that Robin is no better/worse as a shot blocker, also.

The thing that really baffles me is that people seem to think the guy was merely an above average college player this past season. Forget about it. Lopez was the best player in the Pac-10 - he dominated both sides of the ball in a horribly balanced offense, and led that offense to a 2nd place finish in the best conference in the league and a #3 seed. The only reason he wasn't far and away the best player in the conference was a historic season from a certain freshman that he locked up when they went head to head.

Let me repeat - Brook Lopez played the toughest schedule in America this year. Where the average player gets to pad his percentages and efficiency in the non-conference, Lopez didn't get that chance in either of his seasons. He went straight into the toughest conference in the country, where there was only 1 team not capable of competing for a tourney berth. Some of the non-NCAA teams he played? Washington with Jon Brockman, Cal with Devon Hardin, and Arizona St with Jeff Pendergraph.

If there is ANY college player who got an NBA-caliber schedule during his time in college, it was Brook Lopez.

So what am I missing? For two straight years, Lopez has instantly transformed Stanford from downright lousy to very good. He's carried a load that no 7-footer should ever have to carry at the college level for a team with a laughably lacking ability to complement him, and led that team to a 2nd place finish in the toughest conference in the country. He was at his best when it counted in the tournament. He's got just about every tool you could ask for in terms of skill. He's a 7-foot, 260 lb SOPHOMORE that can move well for his size.

So if you honestly believe this guy has a limited upside and is a stiff, could you please comprehensively respond to these arguments?

I swear we were separated at birth. I think you are the only person on this entire site as high on Lopez and Augustin as I am. Which clearly makes you a genius.

[BigSlam]

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I swear we were separated at birth. I think you are the only person on this entire site as high on Lopez and Augustin as I am. Which clearly makes you a genius.

I think it was you Cammo that said:

"DJ Augustin is the PG Jerryd Bayless wishes he could be".

Classic.

[Jonathan Watters]

I'm piling on here, but this one popped into my head so I figured I'd come back to beat a dead horse:

If you think Lopez was getting single coverage against undersized college post players the whole season, take a look at the final 10 or so minutes of the Marquette-Stanford game.

Tom Crean was stupid enough to make 6'7 Dwight Burke try to stop Lopez without much/any help down the stretch of their 2nd round tournament game.

Lopez was unstoppable, scoring 20 points in just over 10 minutes of regulation+OT, including the game winner from the baseline.

[Cammo101]

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I think it was you Cammo that said:

"DJ Augustin is the PG Jerryd Bayless wishes he could be".

Classic.

I did say it, because right now Augustin is a true PG and Bayless is a guy trying to become a PG. If Bayless becomes a true PG the sky is the limit for him, but he is not that guy yet. For the record, I have been very high on Bayless for quite a while now.

But, I also stand by what I said. And the proof is in the All American. I never said Bayless was not capable of being better eventually, but he sure is not right now.

[BigSlam]

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I did say it, because right now Augustin is a true PG and Bayless is a guy trying to become a PG. If Bayless becomes a true PG the sky is the limit for him, but he is not that guy yet. For the record, I have been very high on Bayless for quite a while now.

But, I also stand by what I said. And the proof is in the All American. I never said Bayless was not capable of being better eventually, but he sure is not right now.

Hey man, you're preaching to the choir!

Go swing by the Bobcats board and ask the guys there what I have been saying about DJ for the past 7 months.

I love the kid and am a HUGE fan.

[A.J.]

Just think a better version of Chris Mihm.

[GSW2K4]

To J. Watters,

In response to your previous post...here is a comprehensive (and thus long) response to your well thought out assessment of Lopez...

The thing is...I think DX has already responded to your arguments...

http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Brook-Lopez-545/

There aren't any scouting reports out there that call him a stiff.

I don't think anyone has called him a stiff... DX does call him "mechanical" though...

There aren't any scouting reports out there that say he's an offense-first player.

DX does have an old scouting report that describes Brook as "The more offensively gifted of the Lopez twins, Brook will be relied upon greatly this upcoming season in a Stanford offense." NBAdraft.net calls him "a smooth offensive player" in Robin's scouting report (and their scouting reports are iffy at best). So the claim is not unfounded in the major scouting reports people read...plus he has a number of offensive strengths. I don't think anyone is saying that is what he will be in the league... offense just happens to be something he brings to the table.

But did he ever get a wide open dunk created for him by teammates? Did he ever get single coverage against these 6'6, 200 pounders people seem to think he was facing every night in the Pac-10 (not true, will get to more of that later)? I would be shocked if there was a single post player in the country whose rate of difficult shots to gimmees could even approach Brook Lopez's.

This is a solid point...I think I addressed it above as did DX: "Lopez is very formulaic in this range when he has his back to the basket...He shows no counter-moves or fakes in this range, and doesn

[UGA Hayes]

GSW I think those are some reasonable responses but I also feel like your assessment is a combination of outdated and unrealistic. His actual skill level is pretty advance for his age/year-Its his decisionmaking in executing his moves that is going to need to improve. Only a handlful of NBA Bigs ever develop the footwork or hands that Brooke already has.

In other words he is already an improved player from the one described in his scouting report, so I don't think its fair to hold it against him.

I'm probably not going to be able to convince you b/c you don't seem to think the skills Lopez has shown are advanced to begin with. If you don't believe that to begin with then I'm not sure what to say.

Additionally I'm not sure bringing Kaman into this is really adding to the conversation. Kaman achieved a certain level of success (in a very bad conference mind you--Sheldon Williams in the tourny was one of the few bigs he ended up facing) which seems inconsequential in evaluating Lopez's actual skills

[Jonathan Watters]

I don't think anyone has called him a stiff... DX does call him "mechanical" though...

Well, then I ask what post-oriented 7-footer to be drafted in the last 5 years wouldn't be deemed "mechanical". Is Tim Duncan "mechanical"? I think one thing to remember about DX is that their profiles are very comprehensive. They apparently want to have numerous weaknesses listed for every player, regardless of whether or not this may overstate some and understate others. I'm not sure how much you can read into that "mechanical" assessment....

DX does have an old scouting report that describes Brook as "The more offensively gifted of the Lopez twins, Brook will be relied upon greatly this upcoming season in a Stanford offense." NBAdraft.net calls him "a smooth offensive player" in Robin's scouting report (and their scouting reports are iffy at best). So the claim is not unfounded in the major scouting reports people read...plus he has a number of offensive strengths. I don't think anyone is saying that is what he will be in the league... offense just happens to be something he brings to the table.

Well, I'm not disagreeing with the idea that he has offensive strengths. I'm disagreeing with the waves of people who are posting that defense isn't a strong point. That simply isn't true. He's further ahead of the curve defensively than he is offensively, and is absolutely ready to make a defensive impact in the NBA.

The issue is not that he got double teamed a lot but that he did not respond to them well. I again refer to guys like Bogut, Kaman, Duncan or Oden who also got double teams and did respond to them much much more effectively. Lopez just doesn't respond well and seems almost stubborn to do so.

Between level of play, usage rates, and team success, none of the three players you mention can be compared to Lopez. Oden played at a similar level (also missing the non-conference), but didn't come close to Lopez in terms of usage. Bogut didn't either, and played at a much poorer level. I don't have stats on Kaman, but it is highly unlikely he matched Lopez in usage and he played in the freaking MAC. If we can compare the MAC to the Pac-10, we might as well make straight stat comparisons between the Pac-10 and the NBA.

And I don't think there's anything there to support Lopez not being able to handle the double teams, either. He had the highest ORtg of any Stanford starter, despite the high usage rate. His assist rate isn't alarmingly low for his position, and he almost never turned the ball over. Players struggling with passing out of double teams generally don't play for good offensive teams, have the highest ORtg on their team, or produce miniscule turnover rates.

I follow your argument, but again, it can't be ignored as a major red flag. It's not the same as Jordan -- they're different players. Jordan is a much more fluid athlete which is why people might suggest taking a risk on Jordan over Lopez. I would argue that you'd be hard pressed to find a successful NBA center who shot less than 50% in college. I could be wrong...and Lopez could be the exception... but he's not the first center ever to see double teams like this.

No, he really is the first center to see double teams like this, play such a large role in the offense, and play on such a successful team. So it is hard to pigeon hole him on that. There are few valid statistical comps for Lopez over the past 3 years, and that is because his offensive role is so rare. So yes, you'd be hard pressed to find a center who shot under 50% finding success in the NBA - about as hard pressed as you would be to find a center on a #3 seed with absolutely no help and using 33% of his team's posessions while on the floor.

So it really comes down to eyeballing it. Does Lopez look like a guy who only makes shots because he is big? Or does he look like a guy who never gets easy shots because of all the attention he is getting and the inability of his teammates to A) keep pressure/attention off of him B) create their own shots.

I don't see how anybody who watched him regularly could say that Lopez was only making shots because he was big. In that slow it down offense, he never got open looks. He never got the chance to get putbacks, because he was always the player shooting difficult shots 30 seconds into the shot clock.

I think it is fair to say that in a normal offense, Lopez would be shooting 50% from the floor. And in that scenario, we aren't having this discussion.

Fair point -- again I think people are looking primarily at Robin's agility and intensity and saying he projects as a better NBA defender. Stats aside though, Brook knows how to use his size to be a presence, where as Robin does have better shot blocking instincts. Brook is more of a stand up tall hands up guy (which is effective at the college level). That's just from watching games...

The stats don't support Robin having better shot blocking instincts. What watching the games does support is Brook having elite-caliber individual post defense instincts.

Some would argue he wasn't even the best in the state...but nobody would call him "merely above average college player"... he's clearly among the best. But that's different that calling him an above average NBA prospect...those are two entirely different things... I don't think we need to go through the long and very painful list of top level college players who didn't translate to the NBA...

And once again, I'll ask just how in the world a player as skilled, mobile, and huge as Brook Lopez has a game that wouldn't translate to the NBA. We aren't talking about JJ Redick here. We are talking about a guy who has consistently graded as an elite NBA prospect at every stage of development, a guy who has dominated the toughest league he could have possibly played in up to this point, and a guy who is far from a finished product.

I follow UW quite closely and that team was completely inept this past season after losing Roy/Jones/Williams and then Hawes in consecutive years. Brockman is a tough guy, but he gives up 5 inches to Lopez...and none of the above players you listed project as legit NBA bigs (barring significant improvement)... plus defending a guy like Lopez is about team D, so I'm not sure if this really helps your point. DX happens to list the opposite as one of his weaknesses: "Has struggled against NBA caliber big men".

Well, if "has struggled against NBA caliber big men" were one of his weaknesses, I would expect to be able to look at game logs and see games where he was clearly outplayed by NBA caliber big men. And I don't see them.

As for none of the competition projecting as NBA caliber big men, I don't know what more you could ask for in terms of competition at the college level. All of the above players have very good shots to play in the NBA, with a couple of them likely turning in lengthy careers. There are numerous players of Jon Brockman's caliber playing in the NBA these days, and Lopez would see them on a semi-regular basis if he is going to be the Rasho-style bench player you are projecting him as.

I'm not sure where this idea that Lopez was in a situation that "no 7-footer should ever have to carry at the college level"... again, try to find footage of Chris Kaman in college (since that's a comparison here). I happened to live in MI at the time and caught some of his games... he dealt with much the same situation, had a worse supporting cast (even relative to the level of competition) and didn't emerge with the same concerns Lopez has.

Sad thing is, Kaman probably didn't have much worse of a supporting cast on the offensive end. And then there's the fact that he's playing in the MAC. Sorry, you just can't make this comparison. It is highly unlikely he played any more an important role for his team, and he did it at a much worse level. You can be darn sure Lopez's numbers would shoot through the roof if he were playing in the MAC. I think you can also be sure that Lopez is a significantly better athlete than Kaman.

There's nothing thus far to substantiate him being a top 15 center in the league (which isn't saying much because there are so few true centers playing anyway)... he'd barely be a top 10 center drafted in the last 5 years...

Compare Lopez to other top 10 pick centers in the last five years and he's a below average center prospect (this is excluding Biedrins, who was #11)...he's just the best center in this draft that lacks center prospects...

Once again, hard to make statistical comps based on position when the guy you are comparing doesn't have any statistical comps - with the closest ones being players from other positions.

I think it is obvious that Brook's situation at Stanford skewed things quite a bit. On a team with a balanced offensive attack, his usage probably drops from 32+ into the 25-28 range, and his FG% shoots up into the 50-52% range.

As for speculation...

I think it is obvious that Lopez is more of a natural in a supporting role offensively, and is going to be able to stretch opposing 5 men in the NBA. I've heard that he has range all the way out to the college 3-point line, which doesn't surprise me given his FT%. Problem is that nobody ever saw this in college because he was tied up on the low block. There is no way a 7-footer can head out to the perimeter when his teammates are offensively raw 7-footer at C, a combo forward at SF, a player who can't shoot at SG, and a physicall overmatched PG.

I appreciate the defense of your arguments, most people never bother to get this far...

[jfucsd10]

The fact that brooke lopez will be able to tie his own shoe and breathe at the same time already makes him a true top 15 center i nthe league.

The Kid will be a solid to above average player in the league. If nobody wants him, the Kings will be more than thrilled to have him line up along side spencer hawes and watch some pretty basketball.

[Texas Longhorns]

Lopez sucks and his brother sucks even more.

[GSW2K4]

Nice responses.

For the record, I saw Lopez at a game in person during his freshman year and wasn't impressed... I'm admittedly biased by that. I also saw him play on TV at the end of this season and in the NCAA tournament. But I think it's hard to judge a player like Lopez without seeing him in person against mult. defenses... I'd be interested to know how much other people have actually watched him play...

And regardless of whether the DX scouting report is old, I don't see Lopez's game much differently. I used the scouting reports only because it's a common resource. But I know they are flawed because those guys are human (Monta Ellis DX scouting report still makes me chuckle, but they nailed some core points).

Anyway, I agree with UGA Hayes on his assessment of Lopez and I think this is probably the source of our major point of contention -

His actual skill level is pretty advance for his age/year-Its his decisionmaking in executing his moves that is going to need to improve.

It's his execution that bothers me...not his skill level. The tools are there. It's what he does with that at the next level where I think we disagree -- I think he just doesn't respond well to situations, you say he was facing unprecedented situations that nobody else had to. I think he lacks what people are calling that "It" factor and I don't think one develops that if it's lacking in college. The other centers that I mentioned above (I mentioned Kaman only because people are comparing Lopez to Kaman) had "it". I think that goes beyond what stats will bear out and we'd have to watch the same piece of footage to come to support our points further... so I'll agree to disagree.

So I'll skip all the previous stuff and jump to this... because I think it's most important --

As for speculation...

I think it is obvious that Lopez is more of a natural in a supporting role offensively, and is going to be able to stretch opposing 5 men in the NBA. I've heard that he has range all the way out to the college 3-point line, which doesn't surprise me given his FT%. Problem is that nobody ever saw this in college because he was tied up on the low block. There is no way a 7-footer can head out to the perimeter when his teammates are offensively raw 7-footer at C, a combo forward at SF, a player who can't shoot at SG, and a physicall overmatched PG.

I totally agree with this -- I think I said something similar in an earlier post -- he's a high post center who has the ability to score on the block and will be a defensive presence. He could probably play the 4 on offense in the right system. Yes, the package is attractive. I don't think many people could dispute that.

But I don't think he's a guy who you can just put out there and expect to produce without being in the high post situation you describe above. He just has to be in a situation where he can maximize his talent (he would be a horrible fit on a team like the Warriors who just run and chuck and probably wouldn't work on a team like Boston/New Orleans where Garnett/West already play the perimeter).

So is that worth labeling him a consensus #3 pick? I don't think so... there are players available (at other positions) who can seem to do more. Lopez is certainly not a guy you can build around. Nor is he a guy who I would want to depend on as a game changer, though he'll manage to find a role in the right system. So then you say he's a niche role player, which means he probably needs the right scheme to pan out. And at the top of the lottery, even in a deep draft that lacks stars -- adding a role player (ahem, Sheldon Williams) -- just seems wasteful. You're there because you need an impact player who can help you win, not just a player that fits a scheme that may or may not work with what's already there.

At #3, the Wolves have this gaping black hole at center that just diminishes the talent of the other positions, but it's not like they are loaded with all-stars at the other 4 spots (Jefferson is obviously very good). They need talent where they can get it and work the rest out later -- Mayo wouldn't be a bad pick for them, hype aside. Best talent available is not Lopez. I agree with this blogger: http://www.wolvesnews.com/blog/Minnesot ... selection/

As you go down the line, teams already have an equivalent talent or a situation that Lopez won't thrive in. Seattle? Wilcox and Lopez? Doubtful. Memphis - Darko and Brook? Nope. The Knicks? Immovable parts Curry and Randolph with Brook? No comment. Clips have Kaman and Brand, Bucks have Bogut and Yi... In the entire league, Lopez probably fits best with a handful of teams -- Charlotte could work, Indiana (depending on O'Neal), maybe NJ, possibly San Antonio (to get a younger big). The Kings could try a triple post rotation with Lopez, Miller, and Hawes and have Lopez develop until Miller leaves... but....

I just don't see why people are so high on Lopez given the realities of the NBA game...honestly what am I missing here...?

[shane5153]

I'm piling on here, but this one popped into my head so I figured I'd come back to beat a dead horse:

If you think Lopez was getting single coverage against undersized college post players the whole season, take a look at the final 10 or so minutes of the Marquette-Stanford game.

Tom Crean was stupid enough to make 6'7 Dwight Burke try to stop Lopez without much/any help down the stretch of their 2nd round tournament game.

Lopez was unstoppable, scoring 20 points in just over 10 minutes of regulation+OT, including the game winner from the baseline.

So if your Minnesota and you have the third pick would you go Brook Lopez or OJ Mayo?

[yehyeh82]

I watched a lot of Pac-10 basketball last year and came away with these conclusions:

1. The Cardinal weren't a very good team when Lopez was suspended.

2. They became a very good team after he came back.

3. They had the worst guard play I can remember in a long time for a high ranking college team. Nobody could shoot from the outside, Goods couldn't handle the ball well and the pg couldn't beat anyone off the dribble. It didn't matter how wide open that they were they would miss it. When they played UCLA the guards were pretty pathetic.

4. The entire offensive possessions were switching the ball side to side in the hopes of getting either Brook or Robin the ball in the post. When Brook got the ball the shot clock was often winding down and he was still able to carry the team. He has soft touch around the rim and knows how to get angles off the glass. He has a decent bank shot out to 12 feet right now, and I can only see him getting better.

5.OJ Mayo was very disappointing to me this year, not quite the leader that Brook Lopez showed himself to be.

6. Kevin Love was my favorite player in the Pac-10 and I would love to see him on the Warriors, but his games against Lopez showed some weaknesses. Lopez is a big body who is also tall, long and agile. He will be a defensive plus, especially man to man in the post. Lopez is a smart player.

I don't understand all the hate for him. He was forced to take almost every shot even if he was double-teamed or had a terrible angle and he still carried his team. He will be a solid pick-up and I would take both him and Love ahead of Mayo.

[carrottop12]

Brook Lopez will be good, but he won't there are sure to be better players taken behind him.

He would be great for a team that wants to move up who already has a few more answers then the Grizzlies as the OP was asking, but a team like them in full rebuilding mode should take someone with more upside.

Jordan fits that pick.

[Cammo101]

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So if your Minnesota and you have the third pick would you go Brook Lopez or OJ Mayo?

You take Lopez and the decision is easy.

[JMillott]

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You take Lopez and the decision is easy.

That is crazy talk, you don't pass on a pretty damn surefire 20/4/4 SG who can also defend and hit 40% on his threes for a center who isn't likely to be more then a 15/8 guy.