Looking back at last year's draft...the Lopez error

[Jonathan Watters]

Well I mean, he did never pass, and he pretty much still doesn't.

So you don't understand that there is a difference between not passing and being a black hole?

It's also accurate to say he wasn't an outstanding rebounder... he was 200th in the NCAA in oboard and dboard rate. He certainly was no Love or Thompson or even Dorsey.

You make mention of the competition he played, yet then compare his rebounding to Jason Thompson - and completely gloss over who was playing next to him.

Anybody capable of taking their head out of their behind and looking at the big picture for half a second knew that Lopez was an excellent rebounder.

Also, from DraftExpress:
“Lopez is very formulaic in this range when he has his back to the basket, never trying to further back his man down once he has the ball, never putting the ball on the floor for more than one dribble, and almost always going right up into a right-handed hook shot or a turnaround jumper, often rushing his shot. Watching him in this area of the court, you get the idea that he knows exactly what he's going to do even before he gets the ball, regardless of how the defense is reacting to him. He shows no counter-moves or fakes in this range, and doesn't adjust to what the defense gives him."

And yet DX still had him #3 in their mock for most of the pre-draft process. Even though they completely underestimated his offensive potential. It is easy to look "formulaic" when everybody knows the formula, which is to pound the ball to Brook Lopez and let his ridiculous physical gifts take over.

I'm not saying he shouldn't have gone higher or that the Bobcats don't regret passing (I certainly do), but those were definitely widely-held ideas about him at the time.

Did you read my above post? Where I question the process that led to these views being "widely held"?

[Basileus777]

Lopez's physical gifts were underrated. He's not an athetlic freak, but he's from a stiff. He has enough quickness that combined with his excellent size, strength, and length that he always had plenty of physical upside. I'll take his size and skillset over some super-athletic tweener who can't do much other than jump any day.

[Jonathan Watters]

Lopez's physical gifts were underrated. He's not an athetlic freak, but he's from a stiff. He has enough quickness that combined with his excellent size, strength, and length that he always had plenty of physical upside. I'll take his size and skillset over some super-athletic tweener who can't do much other than jump any day.

He's not a "freak" in that Michael Jordan, Kevin Garnett-inspired manner that usually comes to mind when the term is used, but his physical gifts absolutely are unique - more unique than the majority of your traditional "freak".

[Paladin55]

you bring up some valid points, but in my opinion we have to wait at least two more years to judge that draft year

Sports fans are too impatient to wait that long, even though that is what you have to do when you are drafting kids who have only played one year out of high school.

The teams which really could have used Lopez the most are Miami and Minnesota, IMO.

McHale fell in love with Love- so what he has now is Jefferson playing out of position at C, and Love, who has some skills, having issues at PF. A front line with Lopez at C and Jefferson at PF would have been a much better situation than Jefferson and Love.

Miami is really in need of a C, and Lopez is the type of unselfish player who fits in well on a team where Wade seems to need the ball all the time. Beasley will be an offensive machine, but he is a black hole as far as ball movement goes, and I have to wonder how he and Wade are going to ever put up with other players on that team taking shots.

Lopez's ultimate value is yet to be determined though, as is the case with everyone drafted last year.

[Basileus777]

Lopez would be a good fit with Wade as Brook does a lot of his scoring off the pick and roll.

[Dr Positivity]

I hyped Lopez all of last year to the point where people were making jokes of a sexual nature about how much I wanted him on my team.

And you people blasting teams for going with "potential" over a proven player like Brook Lopez are still freaking idiots.

(The potential players, on average, turn out better than the proven ones. This is a fact. It can already be seen in the 2009 draft. Deal with it.)

Anyways, it still boggles my mind that here are still people out there who think Brook Lopez isn't athletic. That he wasn't a "potential" pick.

The guy is 7 feet and plays bigger than that because of his wingspan. He's got the perfect build. He moves extremely well for his size. He was a freaking college sophomore.

WHERE IN THIS EQUATION ISN'T THERE UPSIDE?

Does anybody want to come back from fantasy camp and answer this question?

I agree... I'm more critical of the way teams (and fans) judge upside and natural talent, often putting too much emphasis on pure athleticism and not enough on skill or bball IQ. IMO James Harden's upside >>>>>>>> Demar Derozan's.

But yeah, a legit 7 footer with very good footwork and a midrange jumpshot definitely should not have been given a 'safe' label.

[LPKingsFan]

I hyped Lopez all of last year to the point where people were making jokes of a sexual nature about how much I wanted him on my team.

And you people blasting teams for going with "potential" over a proven player like Brook Lopez are still freaking idiots.

(The potential players, on average, turn out better than the proven ones. This is a fact. It can already be seen in the 2009 draft. Deal with it.)

Anyways, it still boggles my mind that here are still people out there who think Brook Lopez isn't athletic. That he wasn't a "potential" pick.

The guy is 7 feet and plays bigger than that because of his wingspan. He's got the perfect build. He moves extremely well for his size. He was a freaking college sophomore.

WHERE IN THIS EQUATION ISN'T THERE UPSIDE?

Does anybody want to come back from fantasy camp and answer this question?

Yep. Not all of us were guilty of committing this error.

[Paydro70]

Jonathan:
I don't get why you're being so angry/condescending. BigSlam was responding to a post suggesting he was flawless by offering some of his perceived flaws, which you called "false" and "made up." They obviously weren't, as the quote from DX shows, plus this other one on passing:

"Never considered much of a passer in college, Lopez has continued along that same path in the NBA thus far, even regressing statistically in that aspect... Right now he ranks in the top 10 amongst the worst passers per-possession in the NBA."

As for rebounding, I really don't even understand... he wasn't elite in college, whatever his competition, and he's not elite now. Maybe he will be, but right now he's average. What does it matter who I picked as an example of a better rebounder in college? He wasn't outstanding, which is what BigSlam said.

I never said draft predictors were right about these things, and as you point out, DX still thought he was a good prospect, but he wasn't flawless, and the specific flaws BigSlam picked out were not made up out of thin air.

I don't even dispute your broader point, that Lopez had considerable "potential" himself.

[pillwenney]

I agree... I'm more critical of the way teams (and fans) judge upside and natural talent, often putting too much emphasis on pure athleticism and not enough on skill or bball IQ. IMO James Harden's upside >>>>>>>> Demar Derozan's.

But yeah, a legit 7 footer with very good footwork and a midrange jumpshot definitely should not have been given a 'safe' label.

I don't know if I would go that far per se. I think the bigger problem is that people assume far too much certainty with regards to "upside". The truth is that if Joe Alexander does everything right, picks up a lot of skill, really gets the NBA game and realizes his full potential, he may be the better player than Lopez. But people fail to realize what a tall order that is.

[S3n1le_N3ls0n]

Lol at knocking the Thunder harder than anybody when they ended up with a franchise PG.

[blzrfan]

To the OP. I just wanted to say that you wrote a really nice summary. It was a really interesting read.

[cucad8]

A Blazers website, OregonLive, ran a mock draft last year, where the moderator picked 14 individuals to act as one of the teams in the lottery, and emailed in our picks, after being informed who was off the board. I ended up with Minnesota as the third pick. With Mayo there, and Beasley and Rose obviously off the board, I decided to go with Lopez at that slot. Here's what I wrote at the time:

I know it would dissapoint Minnesota fans, and might suprise some drafting behind me, but I am going to go with Brook Lopez for the Timberwolves at No 3. Ideally, I would trade down a spot, and grab something from Seattle, since maybe Lopez isn't a "top 3 player" in this draft, but as it is, I can't pass on him for my team.
I understand the problems with drafting for need as a rebuilding team, but I look at my conference, and I see having to go up against Greg Oden and LaMarcus Aldridge (Blazers) to win the division crown, and Andrew Bynum and Pau Gasol (Lakers) as another big duo to get through. I think Lopez can do a good job out to 15 feet, which should help spread the floor some for Al Jefferson. He's a solid defender, not great, but could definitely get better. I like Mayo's potential and the inside-outside threat paired with Jefferson, but I see duplication with Mayo and Randy Foye. Overall I'm not as excited about that pair as my backcourt.

I think a lineup of Radny Foye-Rashad McCants-Corey Brewer-Al Jefferson-Brook Lopez will be a solid one, giving us a chance to at least be more competitive next year. We have a couple of 2nd rounders, and picks next year, and could be one backcourt player away from competing for the playoffs. And cap space next year could be used to trade for a decent PG to lead the team.

Overall, I just can't see passing on Lopez. He has a polished game, solid offensive skills, decent passer, and could envision an intriguing high-low set with him and Jefferson. I worry about Mayo in Minnesota, and his desire to play out his career there. So maybe playing it safe, but has to be Lopez for me here.

[Dan's with the Wolves]

I would have been down for Memphis drafting Lopez and offering the same Mike Miller deal to the Wolves with Lopez instead of Love. I wonder if Mchale & Co. would have still done the trade?

[Mattya]

I remember barely anyone wanted Lopez, from a Wolves point of view. I remember he had a workout with the Wolves and got beat by one of their TV commentators, Jim Peterson, and the word got out and his stock fell

[Teen Girl Squad]

A large part of it was because he was skilled and a sophmore. You are seeing a bit of this even with Griffin atm. Somehow if you aren't a high school or one and done player AND you actaully have sound fundamentals, you automatically have no more potential upside. Lopez had legit concerns last year but most of them were under the (false) assumption that Lopez somehow because he was a skilled sophomore that he somehow was already a finished product that could not improve at all.

[wilt]

in terms of posters here and non-professional opinions on him : People tended to focus on things that they thought might not translate to the NBA and flaws that might be exposed, almost no one thought about things that would translate better to the NBA than College. Like Pick and Roll offense, his ability to outquick big guys, less collapsing in the NBA with better spacing, better Passing to set him up.
He also played on a medium/slow paced team with very few possessions. Stanford on average scored 70 and conceded 61. The average NBA score is in the mid 90s.

Haven´t much time now, but for the rebounding : He averaged "only" 8 a game, but that was on an outstanding rebounding team alongside another 7 footer. Stanford ranked 6th in rebounding differential that year.
There was no way to use stats and claim he´d be a bad rebounder. Propably never will be a truly great one, but arround 10-11 per 36 for most of his career sound pretty reasonable now and that´s more than fine.

For people saying he´s not athletic , that is really crazy. The guy has great athleticism for a guy that big. He´s also playing big and agressive. There´s a lot to like here.

Overall i don´t disagree that much with the Top 9 teams drafting process at the time (hindsight is 20/20) though. There´s been bigger and more obvious slips.

[Sid the Squid]

Lopez fell because too many people overanalyze the draft process and fall in love with untapped potential.

Too many people underanalyze the draft process...Randolph fell to 14 and he was *the potential pick* of the 08 draft...Ended up being a total steal for Golden State..

[Luv those Knicks]

The mistake, more often than not in the draft, is drafting big guys too early, not too late.

Sam Bowie in 84.
Luc Longly - #7 pick in 91, not an awful pick, but several better players followed.
Shawn Bradley #2 pick in 93. Not that bad a player, but a bad #2 pick.
Yinka Dare #14 pick in 94. At least he made a great punchline.
Michael Olowokandi, #1 pick in 1998. No need for comment
Alek Redojevic (12) and my personal Favorite Freddie Weiss (15), over some servicable players that followed.
2003 was interesting. I won't list darko because he was considered a top prospect and he was an 18 year old kid with a smooth game. He didn't work out, but I think most coaches would have taken him at 2 because of his potential. There was also Chris Kaman who many felt the clips drafted too early, but Kaman proved those guys wrong.
2005, Bogut isn't bad, but I don't think he's the best player in the draft, but people were saying that about him then too, so I don't think he really counts as a big drafted too early. The bucks went safe over potential. That's fine.
2007 - again with Oden, he's had some injuries and he's not and perhaps never will be a polished offensive player in the NBA, but he was a consensus #1 pick since he's been 14 years old. I don't want to say Oden was a bad pick.

But the point is, teams, much more often than not, get hurt drafting big. I think it's a good idea to avoid the obvious or consensus choices because I don't blame a GM for taking Oden at 1 or Darko at 2 - those were picks that 90% of the GMs would have made.

But some of the others, bigs were drafted and teams regreted it:

Same Bowie, Shawn Bradley, Yinka Dare, Olowokandi, Wiess, Redojevic.

There have been far fewer instances like Lopez when a big was considered a low-mid lotto pick, he was overlooked and picked late/latish, and then he impressed and made some teams wish they'd picked him.

[revprodeji]

Jonathan:
I don't get why you're being so angry/condescending.
.

Because he is......

in


everything

he

ever

writes

regardless of who

or about what

when

or where

he is simply who he is...

[GopherIt!]

talking about Minnesota:

So instead of actually drafting a true center, they selected a player who plays the same position as their best player and is not as good as Lopez anyhow.

(and this is in response to Cucad too)

I like Lopez but I don't think he Jefferson wouldn't work too well as a starting duo for MN. Jefferson isn't a true center but from an offensive standpoint he plays like one. I think a Lopez-Jefferson front court would be problematic on offense and the improvement on defense wouldn't be enough compensate for the decrease in offensive efficiency when compared to a Jefferson-Love front court. Offensively, those too have the potential to compliment each other very well. I'm counting on McLovin' to back up his talk and sharpen his shooting skills.