pelifan wrote:Why Miles Bridges so low? Dont think he can play the 3 at the NBA level?
I think he's probably a 3, just don't think he's a very good one, I don't see any standout skills.
Foliohattu wrote:Wow and I thought I was a big Gary Clark guy. You really must believe in his shooting translating?
Think it pretty much all translates, shot included, was very impressed by what he showed at the Portsmouth. Stroke looks consistent, still got the slow release so not a shooter per se, but a spacer.
Forte IV wrote:I don't even think Gary Clark gets drafted and you have him 6th? Are you Gary Clark?
Doncic JJJ MPJ Carter Ayton Bamba Mikal Bridges Sexton Miles Bridges Young
I think are my top 10 in order, need to look more into Miles Bridges.
MyUniBroDavis wrote: he was like YALL PEOPLE WHO DOUBT ME WILL SEE YALLS STATS ARE WRONG I HAVE THE BIG BRAIN PLAYS MUCHO NASTY BIG BRAIN BIG CHUNGUS BRAIN YOU BOYS ON UR BBALL REFERENCE NO UNDERSTANDO
eminence wrote:Shamet - Best shooter in the draft, being able to move off the ball more in the NBA will really help him shine (spot up/wing shooting #'s are nuts). Think his more thoughtful/slower playstyle has led to a massive underrating of his athleticism - I expect him to look great at the combine.
Elie Okobo and Landry Shamet - two great shooters. But I think it's ridiculous to suggest that anyone but Trae Young isn't the best shooter in this class.
stitches wrote:The best shooter in the draft is Elie Okobo.
Ha
Okobo is good, man, but not at Trae Young level. Trae has that lightning quick release like Steph Curry and all of his energy is on the up. No wasted motion, always square. Trae is going to light the league up in a few years just like Steph is doing now.
I'll be tickled pink with an Okobo pick in the draft, though. We need our Manu.
I haven't watched enough film, but here it is so far, mostly based on player tools and archetypes. But I don't know, I switch every day. This draft in particular, I feel like there are so many unknowns for every player.
1) Ayton - Hard to see how he doesn't become an all-star in my opinion given his combination of touch, length, athleticism. HIghest ceiling, highest floor, while the median outcome does worry me in how conductive it is for winning in a championship team. 2) Doncic - Ridiculously skilled and productive for age and competition, but worried his limited wiggle would make him nothing more than a good starter. 3) Jackson - 3&D Center at worst sounds like a great worst case scenario + his age makes me very hopeful that he can become a better self-creator. 4) Young - He might just bust out, but has a ridiculously high offensive ceiling with his pull up jump shot, passing ability and wiggle. If Steve Nash and Steph Curry could do it, maybe this guy can to. I typically worry about lack of athleticism, but hey man its the modern NBA. 5) Bamba - Also has 3&D potential. Ridiculous length and agility. Dude seems extremely smart too so I think he will figure out how to put the tools together. 6) Bagley - I think he is gonna win rookie of the year, consistent 20/10 guy, but if he doesn't play alongside a Porzingis type, i don't see how he is conductive to winning basketball. 7) Porter - If his back is healthy, his offensive potential is top notch. Still wouldn't see him as a potential #1 pick though. 8) Carter - Seems like a surefire starter with all star potential. Length, shooting, smart.
Doncic JJJ MPJ Carter Ayton Bamba Mikal Bridges Sexton Miles Bridges Young
I think are my top 10 in order, need to look more into Miles Bridges.
Looking more, 4-6 are a tossup. I like Bamba best I think but his frame spooks me a little. Those I change by the minute. Might even flip Sexton and Bridges.
Edit: Screw it, Bamba's 4, Carter/Ayton 5 and 6.
Doncic JJJ MPJ Bamba Carter Ayton Bridges Sexton Miles Young
MyUniBroDavis wrote: he was like YALL PEOPLE WHO DOUBT ME WILL SEE YALLS STATS ARE WRONG I HAVE THE BIG BRAIN PLAYS MUCHO NASTY BIG BRAIN BIG CHUNGUS BRAIN YOU BOYS ON UR BBALL REFERENCE NO UNDERSTANDO
Think I overcomplicated my board a bit last time trying to stretch to 30. Think I'm going to simplify a bit and cut back to 15-20 guys I feel good about.
Big board with tiers only, and most importantly some notes on every player to at least explain my reasoning and my expectations.
TIER 1 (1–2)
Luka Doncic
Spoiler:
Firmly remains on the top of my board as the best prospect since at least Anthony Davis, in my opinion. He has incredible talents in a big body, and an understanding of the game unlike anyone I have ever seen at this age. He will have no issues finding his role in the NBA, and has as good a chance as any prospect to have legitimate star impact on winning teams going forward. He will have to become more consistent as a shooter and must work hard on his body to be in the best shape possible to maximize his impact, but I do believe in his desire to win and improve in those areas relentlessly. His ability to understand the game, manipulate and punish defenses, are things you simply cannot learn if you do not have it yet. Defensively, I believe he will be fine. Good rebounder, strong, good size – not having high-end athletic ability should not affect his potential to become a serviceable defender if he tries to make an impact on that end and improve on his fundamentals.
Jaren Jackson Jr.
Spoiler:
My number two draft prospect, and the only other prospect besides Doncic that I am willing to put into my first tier. Simply put, Jackson has the ability to not only be a good-to-great defensive player but also someone who should provide value on offense no matter where he goes. I seriously doubt that he will be a primary or secondary scorer in the NBA but this does not mean that he cannot be an elite prospect overall. His combination of rim protection, perimeter defense, and effort level on defense are second to none in this draft. Offensively, his ability to spread the floor makes him a low-risk pick in this regard, and he has shown flashes of taking on smaller guys in the post with some success and the rudimentary ability to attack the rim on close-outs. Despite not being an elite run-and-jump athlete, his great length and – in the future – strength along with fluid movements will make him one of the better functional athletes in the NBA. Add to this his mature character and youth and I cannot see him being anything less than a long-time pro in the NBA with great upside to boot.
In terms of upside, I'd rank them: Doncic, Jackson In terms of floor, I'd rank them: Doncic, Jackson
TIER 2 (3–5)
DeAndre Ayton
Spoiler:
Ayton leads the next tier consisting of three players I struggle to really separate. I have been critical of Ayton in the past, not least because of my opinion that Ayton does not possess the skills necessary to anchor a good offense – skills which are extremely rare for a big man to possess as it is – and that his defense has enough apparent holes (most notably a lack of awareness that leads to slow reactions as a help defender) that I do not see him as a franchise player. However, I do value him as a good big man who will bring important things to his team: efficient above the rim scoring, able to attack mismatches in the post, rebounding on both ends, and the ability to not be played off the floor in small-ball line-ups with his good lateral movement. This will make him a valuable player in the NBA for a long time, at least as long as he is willing to do as the coaches instruct him. He is bound to produce in the NBA, and even though I doubt his boxscore production will accurately reflect his impact on the game, I do believe he will be a positive impact player for years to come. He is, after all, a physical specimen with sufficient ball skills to carve out a role as a valuable starter. Yet the hype as 'the next all-time great' is something I personally do not quite understand.
Trae Young
Spoiler:
I have long pondered on his placement on my board. Most people will fear how his offense translates but this is not my biggest worry. He is exceptionally skilled on offense. Almost unprecedented combination of ball handling, shooting and playmaking in a freshman, and I find it hard to believe that he will not be a really good offensive player with a more normal usage. He will always produce some turnovers from overly risky passes, and take some bad shots to check his temperature, but there is just too much to like in terms of his skills to not peg him as a potentially great offensive player, including his quickness with the ball. Although I will say that he must embrace a Curry-like role in which constant off-ball movement is emphasized – or else his offensive impact is likely to be limited, especially in terms of how it scales up with other offensive talent around him. His issue is defense. Little effort in college which will change in the NBA, I presume. But he has to really dig in and play tough and constantly aware defense, or else he will be such a negative on that end that his offensive impact can hardly make up for it. I am not sure he has that mentality in him – especially as his offensive role increases – but we have seen players of his size not being liabilities, and that must be the goal for Young. Whether or not he will be playable against teams like Houston who relentlessly force and then attack mismatches – something I suspect we will see more and more in the NBA going forward – will in no small part determine what kind of peak impact Trae can possibly have. He is a classic high-risk high-reward pick, no question.
Mikal Bridges
Spoiler:
I am still firmly in Team Mikal, and I love him more as a prospect than perhaps anybody on this board. I see him play, listen to him talk, look at his development and accomplishments, and I simply do not see any way that he fails to make an impact on winning teams as a starting player. His combination of off-ball movement, athleticism, shooting, length, instincts and effort makes him the best prototypical 3&D wing prospect I have ever seen. Usually, with my emphasis on impact on winning teams in non-high-usage roles, I love those players more than most, but not enough to consider drafting them in the Top 5. Mikal is different, however, because he is as close to the perfect combination for this role as anybody. He is not just a stopper but an incredibly smart and active team defender, he is not just a shooter but moves so well off the ball; he has great size to defend all players on the perimeter, and he is athletic while smart enough to realize that he must get into the spots in which he can make the most out of it – running in transition, cutting hard towards the rim, attacking overzealous close-outs. And he is a leader. I had him as high as #3 on my board and I would not blink an eye if someone had him above Ayton or Young. What he lacks compared to those two guys is some of their upside. Mikal has all the tools in the world to become a great and highly impactful player. But unless he develops his handle to an almost unprecedented extent, he will always be limited in what he can do offensively, and rely more heavily than others on what defenses give him. Add to this that – while he should be a good shooter – there are some doubts if he can indeed become an elite 'I don't care about a hands in my face' and 'who needs set feet to get a good shot off' type of shooter, I do not want to put him a tier above the others. Note that I am fully aware that odds are that someone drafted behind him will turn out to be better because he reaches his potential that is higher than Mikal's. But it is impossible to know for sure who this is going to be, and then there is no sense in shooting for the stars when an almost assuredly valuable player with still good upside – by becoming the best player in a limited yet still important role – is right in front of you. And to me, seeing him end up as the fifth best player in this draft would not be a surprise at all as the number of true franchise players is extremely limited in every draft.
In terms of upside, I'd rank them: Young, Ayton, Bridges In terms of floor, I'd rank them: Bridges, Ayton, Young
TIER 3 (6–7)
Marvin Bagley
Spoiler:
Like with Ayton, I have been critical of Bagley in the past. However, I do like him as a player and prospect, and pointing out weaknesses came as reaction to – in my eyes – overly positive assessments of his game and star potential. Bagley is going to be a long-time NBA player who will carve out a role that teams will find valuable. His athleticism is off the charts, and with his energy level there is just no way that he will not succeed at least in the role of an energy big. He runs the floor like a gazelle, crashes the offensive glass, can finish above the rim with ease. But he can clearly be more. He is more skilled than most energy bigs already and he has obviously room for improvement. He could become a decent ball handler and shooter for his position, an adequate passer and a mismatch in the post. This would make him a valuable offensive player – but not a great one. As with Ayton, I will argue again that offensive superstars usually possess some elite skills that Bagley does not and most likely will never possess, and that he is not one of the exceptions among bigs who can anchor a good offense. Rather, I foresee his contributions to valuable yet clearly more modest than some expect or the numbers would suggest. This is not only an opinion I hold on prospects but consistent with my evaluation of the impact of the bigs who are already in the NBA, by the way. His shortcomings in terms of skills (including only using his left to finish) are likely to be exploited in a primary role on offense. Can his defense be good enough to still make him a veritable tier-one prospect? In my eyes, no. He has some abilities on that end, to be sure. He has not only the athleticism but also the desire to defend, and he can obviously rebound the ball. But he not only lacks length to play closer to the rim effectively, but also the awareness and – in some instance – the fundamentals to become more than a passable defensive player in a realistic scenario. I would not be surprised if he looked better than at Duke at times, but with the different level of the NBA game I still find it hard to imagine him as some sort of good-to-great defender – and that's enough rank him behind a number of other prospects. But, to be sure, being ranked at #6 still clearly shows that I like him as a prospect despite being a bit lower on him than the average fan, scout and, it seems, executive.
Michael Porter
Spoiler:
Some medical concerns have made me drop Porter a bit recently. If health was guaranteed, he would rank a bit higher and somewhere in that second tier. Yet he is not good enough – or at least not proven enough – to still rank this highly with the existing health concerns. When I watch Porter, I see someone with the potential to excel offensively in the NBA albeit not at the highest levels as his handles and playmaking is not advanced enough. He can be an excellent scorer who just finds different ways to score, whatever works on a given night. This has clear value in the NBA, especially if you can still within the flow of the game and only take over – in the classic sense – when defenses tighten up. In HS he showed zero effort on defense which made me question his motor, and which could be an issue if he reaches stardom. But if he does reach this level, I suppose his motor issues on defense become less of an issue in the grand scheme of things. In games when he had to prove himself, he did play with decent effort on defense. Most notably, he was able to rebound well and challenge shots at the rim more and more effectively than you would expect from a Forward. Perimeter defense was never his strength, though, and we will see if he can fix this in the NBA or if he must indeed be a full-time 4 to really make an impact. Question marks clearly exist with him. Yet at the same time, his potential is still obvious and I do believe that being considered the best of your class not only by scout rankings but also among many peers – as was the case with Porter during HS – does say something about his potential; even though it is more of a side note than real argument.
In terms of upside, I'd rank them: Porter, Bagley In terms of floor, I'd rank them: Bagley, Porter
TIER 4 (8–12)
Lonnie Walker
Spoiler:
Walker was so tough to rank for me because it can really go either way with him. On the one side, you have his talents. Being an incredible athlete with a quick first step, Walker can blow past anyone if given the opportunity. His skills must still be improved a lot but he does have the foundation for improvement in the areas of ball handling, shooting, and playmaking. Will he improve enough, though? There are some concerns. His motor has been up and down in college, and motor issues can be a sign of the overall desire to become great. As of now, he is not good enough as a shooter to provide value for his team, he is not a good enough ball handler to create for himself consistently, he is not a good enough playmaker to run your offense and create for others reliably, and he does not play with sufficient intensity on defense to make an impact on that end for his team. So where do we go from here? If he works tirelessly on his game and he ramps up his intensity level, he has a ceiling that few prospects in this draft can match. But there is a real and disproportionally high chance that he will not got there and this could lead to him searching for his role in the NBA forever, without ever leaving a clear imprint his teams behind. Picking him in the Top 10 is betting on his ceiling, but going with less risky picks is absolutely justifiable in my eyes.
Mohamed Bamba
Spoiler:
My highest ranked player going into the season probably saw the most substantial drop of all. I have written a lot of posts on Bamba and my view on him, perhaps justifying in front of myself as to why I feel the need to drop him this far (and I ranked him even lower before). Basically, I cannot convince myself that Bamba is a low-risk pick. I do believe there is a real chance that he can be played off the floor when teams size down. His rim protection is his main selling point and on a spread-out NBA court this ability of his could take a serious hit. It does not help that his college rim protection was different from what he could do in the NBA, and even against line-ups with a more traditional C there is the chance that his rim protection is not as effective as hoped because it relies more on already being at the rim than getting there to help. And can he cover the perimeter on switches? He moves gracefully, but perhaps not quickly and flexible enough to not be picked on by good isolation players. Offensively, he is a work in progress. He has the mechanics to become a decent shooter but it is more likely that this will only be a useful instead of defining feature of his offensive game, i.e. something he does on low volume to space the floor a bit, but nothing that will change the dynamics on games. He is a poor passer as of now, who lacks a variety of moves in the post and awareness of what is going on and where is teammates and opponents are on the floor – this lack of feel severely limits the role he can possibly handle in the NBA. I hope he can find a way to be effective in a limited role á la Tyson Chandler but even that is not a given considering that Bamba is not an explosive athlete, and does not play at full intensity all the time. If the game slows down for him a bit, and if he can find a consistent motor and develop his skills, I do believe he can be a useful offensive player. But this is still a long way ahead; and to expect him to be even more than that is not reasonable in my eyes. That said, if he can find a way to be an effective defensive anchor in today's NBA – which is possible – then his upside (e.g. Gobert) is real. This is way he warrants consideration in the 7-12 range for some teams not least because all players in this range have clear deficiencies – either a presumably limited ceiling or high risk to not reach levels close to their ceiling.
Josh Okogie
Spoiler:
Having Okogie this high might surprise most of you, and frankly it surprises me as well a bit. I was, however, thinking about where to rank him and could not find a reason that convinces to put him a tier or two lower than the other guys here. I am obviously high on Okogie's potential. He is a very athletic player who, akin to Walker, has a solid skill foundation to build upon. As of now, he has to improve a lot to become a lead guard or secondary offensive option and it is more likely that he never gets there than it is that he does. What does he have to fall back on? This is where I like him. Despite not being a great shooter, I do like what he can bring off the ball and on defense. He has the ability to impact the game in different ways and even if those ways will not be incredibly impactful if he does not reach his potential, it is something that should make him a useful player in a limited role regardless. Not what you hope for but players in this tier are all in the same boat in that none of them combines a high floor with a high ceiling. I do believe Okogie will benefit from the increased space in the NBA and a reduced usage. He has the physical tools to be great and a solid foundation – but he will have to improve in all areas (including shot selection and finishing) while maintaining his competitive edge to become more than a bench player at the next level. But he does have the chance to explode not least because he is still super young for his class (younger than some of the freshmen) and this is what makes him intriguing.
Kevin Huerter
Spoiler:
Huerter might be the best off-ball scorer in this draft and I place huge emphasis on that. Most players will see their touches and field goal attempts reduced, so being able to excel in a limited role and make an impact without handling the ball is extremely important for me – even if some other guys behind him have higher theoretical ceilings. Huerter has great range and can get his shot off on the move, but he is not an absolutely elite shooter in the Klay Thompson mold – or else I would rank him even higher. His FT% is not that great, and his release is a bit low which means he needs some space to get it cleanly off, without having to rush it or change his mechanics. He is deceptively athletic giving him an edge in terms of off-ball play, and he does make the right play most of the time. That said, he is not overly creative as a playmaker and his ball handling is not good enough to be put in a creating role at the NBA level. This puts a ceiling on his impact on offense – he should be a player every time could use but not a player that you look to build around. His ability to be plugged in and play at the 2 in almost every line-up, however, does mean that his offensive contribution should be portable and scale well. Defensively, he should be fine with his good size and athleticism, as well as understanding of the game, although it's tough to ever envision him as a truly good defensive player.
Donte DiVincenco
Spoiler:
DiVincenco made the biggest leap for me as I was re-watching a bit of tape focusing on him. The main reason was his versatility on offense that I underrated a bit. He has been a bit streaky when it comes to shooting but his ability to hit difficult 3's – a couple feet behind the line, quickly over the defender, off the dribble – bodes well for future improvement. Add to this ability to get to the rim and using either hand to finish, or to find open guys (although I wish he did it a bit more consistently), makes him an intriguing prospect. He would not rank this highly without his winning mentality, though. This year, he has been a key to the success of Villanova by embracing his role. He is limited by a lack of length on defense, but he should fit seamlessly in the NBA with his will to play defense. I really like his potential as the first guard off the bench who can play with or in place of the starting PG, and the fact that he has shown to really good in this role already makes his transition to the NBA much easier to anticipate. This might not be a sexy pick then, but on winning teams those players are incredibly important. Iguodala on the Warriors, Gordon on the Rockets, Ginobili on the Spurs – all of them are starting caliber players who were incredibly important pieces on their teams not least because of what they could provide off the bench. While I am not suggesting that Donte will reach this level of play – that remains to be seen and he would have to develop really well – I believe he can be a great player of the bench (ask the Raptors about VanVleet), a starter in all but name, for the team that drafts and trusts him. And perhaps he can even find a starting role somewhere.
In terms of upside, I'd rank them: Walker, Okogie, Bamba, DiVincenco, Huerter In terms of floor, I'd rank them: Huerter, DiVincenco, Okogie, Bamba, Walker
TIER 5 (13–17)
Wendell Carter
Spoiler:
Carter has been ranked a little more highly on my board before, and I still see the argument for him. I do like the jack-of-all-trades he gives me. He is a good passer for a big man, he can post up smaller players, he can hit an open shot, he can rebound well, he can protect the rim some, he has good length. This is a great package to start with and should make him a long-year professional in the NBA. What I have soured on a bit more is his (in)ability to defend in space which limits his potential on defense and this along with his best role as a high post hub makes him a pure at the next level in my eyes. Maybe he will play some 4 but I do not see him succeeding there. As a 5, some of his strengths must be put into perspective: he no longer continues to be a dominant rebounder, and his relative length and rim protection – as the primary rim protector – take clear hits, too. I simply do not see big upside with him. He should be able to play passable on both ends but with clear limitations. One could argue that this is still valuable, and I would agree. After all, he still warrants consideration for a mid-first or even late lottery pick. Moreover, I would not be surprised if he ends up outplaying his draft position if others fail to live up to the hopes I have in them. But I do not see the appeal as an upside pick, and some players i also like more as floor picks due to their role/style (and most of them have higher upside, too).
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Spoiler:
I remember being the first or second poster to make a thread on him when he started becoming Kentucky's best player. Back then, I really liked what I see and said he could be a mid-first or late lottery pick iirc. I still stand by that. Yet, as the season went on and his stock rose, I did not see anything to make me rank him much – or any – higher than when he broke out. The consistency he displayed was duly noted and worked in his favor, but it did not erase some doubts about his skills. I love him for his tenacious defense and long arms. It makes him a player who should do really well defending Guards at the next level. It remains to be seen how much stronger he can get, though, and I do not see him as a guaranteed lockdown defender against various types of Guards either. On offense, I love his ability to play within himself. He makes the correct passes and he tries to play to his strengths, and teams should love having him next to another PG. This is an important caveat, though. I do not see him as a PG in the NBA. He cannot penetrate consistently, he is not an off-the-dribble threat, he does not see the floor at the highest level, and he is not elite around the rim. So what remains is the role of a combo Guard who plays off the ball a lot – and for that role, he lacks in several departments. Most notably in terms of off-screen shooting, or shooting in general despite some potential, and high-end athleticism. He reminds me a bit of Ntilikina but a little less toolsy on both ends and a little less upside (Ntilikina has more potential simply due to the possibility of him playing less timid soon – knowing what the NBA is like, getting more used to playing on the ball, and transforming his body). Really solid mid-first pick if he can show some more as a shooter but he does not look special to me.
Troy Brown
Spoiler:
Troy Brown was my first draft crush this year, if you want to call it that. I loved his tools, and he appeared to be the perfect wing player in a secondary offensive role with good defense. However, he struggled a bit in college because of two things that are very critical. First and foremost, this concerns his shooting ability. His form looks better than the percentages would suggest, but how much stock do we put on form when the struggles shooting the ball were really obvious? You could see his confidence going down by the day, and in the NBA it is not easy to suddenly regain confidence in something you were never good at to being with. If he is unable to convert at least semi-open shots somewhat reliably, his value takes a big hit and he will probably not reach starting levels. The second part is his athleticism. He is an okay-ish athlete and has good size to be a wing, but will that be enough? A big part of his appeal are his defensive potential and his ability to create in a secondary role, and both of it is impacted by a lack of quickness. I believe he will become at least good enough in terms of shooting the ball that he will not be liability, and he certainly has the age factor going for him. I also love his mentality and would love to have him on the Warriors to fill in for Iguodala at some point. But if I had to be realistic and not let myself get blinded by the many things I love about him – e.g. mentality, passing, pushing the ball – I do expect him to be a high-end bench player or a low-level starting player. This is something valuable, and he has some more upside to him, but somewhere in the middle of the first round seems to be fitting for such a player.
Miles Bridges
Spoiler:
Miles is a player many of you rank higher than I do. I have watched MSU more than any other team last year, and I do understand the appeal. Yet I must admit to being a bit more reserved when it comes to him. For starters, I do believe he benefitted greatly on defense from playing on that MSU team and under Coach Izzo. He was a great college defender on the wings because his strengths – rebounding, post defense, weak side help defense for a wing and general effort level – were emphasized while his weaknesses – staying with quicker players, lack of size/length against bigger Forwards – could be somewhat hidden. In the NBA, where he has to defend well in space, I expect to see him struggle a bit and his close-outs/challenges should be considerably less effective. To me, he will have to play the 4 quite a bit in order to maximize his potential on offense and to not struggle as much on defense – but then his defense could still be an issue, or at least not a clear positive any longer, due to his lack of size and the then relatively pedestrian weak side help and defensive rebounding. Offensively, he can do a lot of things quite well but does not project to be great at anything in particular. His handles would be solid for a 4 but not good enough to create offense for himself or others consistently, i.e. he would create off others breaking down defenses. That is good but nothing special. His shot is decent but inconsistent and not good enough to be a real threat. He can make plays but is not a consistent playmaker. He is a great leaper and can run in transition, but he does not have the best functional athleticism. Overall, I do believe Bridges brings enough to the table to carve out a role in the NBA even though I am not quite sure yet how exactly it will look like. But more than that would require a lot of improvement of which to me he has not shown enough in his Sophomore year. If he does find a way to play the 4 effectively, however, his upside is probably a bit higher than that of most guys in this tier.
Khyri Thomas
Spoiler:
Unlike for many other guys, Thomas' role should be quite clearly defined. He projects to be a good defender – although probably limited to Guards – and a capable off-ball shooter when shooting with his feet set. But I definitely do not see a PG in him – and not even a combo Guard, really. His shooting has been reliable during college and I do appreciate his constant improvement in terms of scoring – increasing his scoring average and 2P% while maintaining high levels of efficiency from behind the arc. But I find it hard to imagine that as a shooter he becomes more than someone who can space the floor in the corners and hit relatively open 3's. His form does not look like it would allow him to become someone who can hit 3's reliably off-screen or on pull-ups in the PnR, where his relative lack of burst and ball-handling, compared to lead guards, also comes into play. His age also does not work in his favor. I see him as the prototypical 3&D Guard and as I mentioned above, I really appreciate those players more than many. This is why I would still use a mid-first pick on him – but I would not expect him to become more than such a role player.
In terms of upside, I'd rank them: Brown, Bridges, Shai, Carter, Thomas In terms of floor, I'd rank them: Carter, Thomas, Bridges, Shai, Brown
____
Other players I would consider next include:
Grayson Allen, Kevin Knox, DeAnthony Melton, Dzanan Musa, Landry Shamet and Moritz Wagner
Spoiler:
Allen is intriguing as an off-screen shooter who can also make the right plays but could struggle a bit to defend and lacks offensive upside outside of his limited role. I see him as a valuable piece off the bench going forward.
Kevin Knox is a bit of an enigma. He gives you the vibe of having the potential to become a decent starter, but when you actually see him play there are just so many small holes and inconsistencies in his game that you lose some faith. Realistically, he will find a role in the NBA but not warrant a lottery pick even in hindsight.
Melton impressed me last year, when I became one of his most vocal fans. The issue with him is that we needed to see some development, and obviously we were deprived of that last year. If his shot has improved then he could be a sleeper pick for some team, but if it did not then I see him as nothing more than a low-minute back up PG.
Musa has the tools to outplay his position, but leaves some things to be desired. I have not seen as much as I should have to make an educated assessment of him as a player, so this could be a bit off – but from what I have seen, I do believe in his ability to find a role as a scorer with some issues in other areas who consequently deserves consideration somewhere in the mid- to late-first round.
Shamet has shown to be a good shooter with decent size for his position. But he struggles to penetrate in half-court settings consistently, is not a great transition player and could struggle with NBA physicality. I see him as the type of combo Guard many teams can potentially use (probably off the bench), but he will have to work to find minutes in the NBA.
Wagner is one of the better offensive bigs in this draft and could carve out a niche in the NBA as an option in the post and as a floor spacer especially with second units who could use some scoring. If he can handle more than back-up minutes depends on his ability to defend at an adequate level – he seems willing but limited.
Some further notes on a couple of other players:
Spoiler:
From the limited footage I have seen, I would also include Elie Okobo, Adjin Penava, Anfernee Simons and possibly Gary Clark to that group. But I do not feel comfortable at all when it comes to rating these guys, and especially ranking them among the other players I have seen much more of. All of them could easily be ranked much higher or much lower if I had seen more of them, but all of them do have shown me enough intriguing stuff to at least mention them here.
At this point, Sexton and Smith also deserve a shout-out. I am obviously a lot lower on both of them than the most but given that all the players I just mentioned above appear to be back-up players or low-level starters, and that the upside of most of them is fairly limited, both of them become are good options for teams who are willing to bet on higher ceilings instead of rounding out their rosters. Both should be worth a first round pick.
