Reed Sheppard and Rob Dillingham - 2024 NBA Draft

[MemphisX]

Sigh, the fallacies are infecting people here. I'm surprised a self-proclaimed "numbers" guy would fall for this one.

Everyone is aware by now that Haliburton had very low usage...but before him so did Lonzo who did not become a lead guard. And before him there were countless college prospects with very low usage who never became lead guards.

But sure. Haliburton. It must no longer be a thing. Anyone with 16% usage can now be a lead guard without any hesitation.

SMH

What part do you disagree with?

There is no point of contention with "water is wet".

[JMAC3]

They play South Carolina tonight.

Projected statline. 26 mins. 2/4 from three. 0/0 from inside arc. 2/2 fta. 8 pts. 4 assists. 2 steals. and 1 really sick look ahead pass.

[Hal14]

If he can play that Marcus smart type role and be a 40% shooter that's a legit high quality starter. Lotto pick imo

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Exactly. Smart was the starting PG for the Celtics in 21-22 (went to NBA finals) and 22-23 (went to game 7 of ECF) and had a usage % of 17% and 18%, respectively, during those seasons.

Chris Paul's usage % has typically been in the 15-20% range throughout his career. Guys like Mike Conley, Lonzo Ball, Kyle Lowry, etc. have all been lower usage (15-20%) PGs as well. Look at Ron Harper on those championship Bulls and Lakers teams. Look at Brian Shaw and Derek Fisher on those championship Lakers teams. Paxson, BJ Armstrong and Steve Kerr on those bulls teams. Look at Muggsey Bogues. John Stockton for most of his career was in the 15-19% range for usage. A lot of Mark Price's career he was in the 19-22% range, so not *that* high.

They're not ball dominant, volume scoring PGs. They're PG's who facilitate, distribute the ball, get other guys involved - play winning basketball. And can hit shots when left open.

But they don't dominate the ball, because they have 2-3 other guys on the team who are elite scorers - so they get the ball to those guys..

[Hal14]

They play South Carolina tonight.

Projected statline. 26 mins. 2/4 from three. 0/0 from inside arc. 2/2 fta. 8 pts. 4 assists. 2 steals. and 1 really sick look ahead pass.

Posts like this are not helpful, insightful or funny. It's just trolling.

What's weird is you've made it clear that you're very low on Sheppard as a prospect, yet you're probably the most active one in this thread.

What's worse, is that you continue to go out of your way to bash Sheppard, talk smack about him, slander him, and root for him to fail, when he is just a 19 year old KID, who might be reading this thread right now. His family might be reading this thread right now.

[Hal14]

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[JMAC3]

They play South Carolina tonight.

Projected statline. 26 mins. 2/4 from three. 0/0 from inside arc. 2/2 fta. 8 pts. 4 assists. 2 steals. and 1 really sick look ahead pass.

Posts like this are not helpful, insightful or funny. It's just trolling.

What's weird is you've made it clear that you're very low on Sheppard as a prospect, yet you're probably the most active one in this thread.

What's worse, is that you continue to go out of your way to bash Sheppard, talk smack about him, slander him, and root for him to fail, when he is just a 19 year old KID, who might be reading this thread right now. His family might be reading this thread right now.

Idk how me thinking he should be picked in the first round of the NBA draft is me bashing and slandering him. I don't have to think everyone is the same level of good and they all should be top 10 picks.

I am rooting for him to score 25 and shoot 14 times and solidify himself as a legit lottery guy, I am just not predicting that.

I am pretty sure if I was on the Bronny James topic and was trying to convince everyone he should go top 5 then I would get pushback. Would that mean if anyone disagreed with me they would be slandering him? What if LeBron read it.

[JMAC3]

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I mean look at the massive differences in 2pt fga column, ftr, usage all pretty important things when evaluating prospects.

If you can't see the difference in the fraudulent ts% compared to the other 6 guys then idk what to tell you.

[Hal14]

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I mean look at the massive differences in 2pt fga column, ftr, usage all pretty important things when evaluating prospects.

If you can't see the difference in the fraudulent ts% compared to the other 6 guys then idk what to tell you.

That's not relevant.

If Sheppard was a volume scorer like those guys, he'd be the consensus number 1 pick.

I'm not saying he's the number 1 pick.

I'm saying he's a lottery pick.

The common thread Sheppard has with those other guys is his impact on winning, his ability to impact winning on both ends of the floor + tremendous efficiency at a very young age vs elite competition. That is enough to be a lottery pick.

Ignore the 2 pt FGA.

Just look at the BPM and TS%. We have never seen a high major freshman with these numbers NOT go in the lottery.

Sheppard might not shoot a ton of 2 ppt FG but those other guys on this list didn't shoot nearly as high from 3 as Sheppard. Only 1 of them had a higher assist % than Sheppard. 2 of them had lower blocks % than Sheppard. All of them had lower steals % than Sheppard. All of them had a lower TS% and lower eFG% than Sheppard. All of them had lower 3PA/100 possessions than Sheppard.

All of them had significantly lower offensive rating than Sheppard.

You can point out 2 stats Sheppard is low in, but I'll point out 10 stats he is high in. So what's your point?

Lastly, that FTr for Sheppard really isn't that bad for a guard. It's similar FTr to guys like Keyonte George (most scouts last season actually said Keyonte ability to draw fouls and get to the line was a strength for him last season), Jalen Brunson, Markelle Fultz, etc.

Sheppard FTr is higher than Dejounte Murray's as a freshman and Anthony Edwards as a freshman too.

[Hal14]

They play South Carolina tonight.

Projected statline. 26 mins. 2/4 from three. 0/0 from inside arc. 2/2 fta. 8 pts. 4 assists. 2 steals. and 1 really sick look ahead pass.

Posts like this are not helpful, insightful or funny. It's just trolling.

What's weird is you've made it clear that you're very low on Sheppard as a prospect, yet you're probably the most active one in this thread.

What's worse, is that you continue to go out of your way to bash Sheppard, talk smack about him, slander him, and root for him to fail, when he is just a 19 year old KID, who might be reading this thread right now. His family might be reading this thread right now.

Idk how me thinking he should be picked in the first round of the NBA draft is me bashing and slandering him. I don't have to think everyone is the same level of good and they all should be top 10 picks.

I am rooting for him to score 25 and shoot 14 times and solidify himself as a legit lottery guy, I am just not predicting that.

I am pretty sure if I was on the Bronny James topic and was trying to convince everyone he should go top 5 then I would get pushback. Would that mean if anyone disagreed with me they would be slandering him? What if LeBron read it.

Don't be coy or try to act all innocent. You know darn well that you've posted like 150 negative posts in this thread about a KID who is only 19, might be reading this thread and his family might be reading it too.

[JMAC3]

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I mean look at the massive differences in 2pt fga column, ftr, usage all pretty important things when evaluating prospects.

If you can't see the difference in the fraudulent ts% compared to the other 6 guys then idk what to tell you.

That's not relevant.

If Sheppard was a volume scorer like those guys, he'd be the consensus number 1 pick.

I'm not saying he's the number 1 pick.

I'm saying he's a lottery pick.

The common thread Sheppard has with those other guys is his impact on winning, his ability to impact winning on both ends of the floor + tremendous efficiency at a very young age vs elite competition. That is enough to be a lottery pick.

Ignore the 2 pt FGA.

Just look at the BPM and TS%. We have never seen a high major freshman with these numbers NOT go in the lottery.

Sheppard might not shoot a ton of 2 ppt FG but those other guys on this list didn't shoot nearly as high from 3 as Sheppard. Only 1 of them had a higher assist % than Sheppard. 2 of them had lower blocks % than Sheppard. All of them had lower steals % than Sheppard. All of them had a lower TS% and lower eFG% than Sheppard. All of them had lower 3PA/100 possessions than Sheppard.

All of them had significantly lower offensive rating than Sheppard.

You can point out 2 stats Sheppard is low in, but I'll point out 10 stats he is high in. So what's your point?

Lastly, that FTr for Sheppard really isn't that bad for a guard. It's similar FTr to guys like Keyonte George (most scouts last season actually said Keyonte ability to draw fouls and get to the line was a strength for him last season), Jalen Brunson, Markelle Fultz, etc.

Sheppard FTr is higher than Dejounte Murray's as a freshman and Anthony Edwards as a freshman too.

Guy just went scoreless in the first 39 mins tonight before hitting a garbage time 3 in a blowout loss. Idk the exact mins he played yet but watching the majority of the 2nd half seemed like Cal went with other guys to try and get back into the game.

[The-Power]

Games like this one need to be monitored. There's a difference between passive and unselfish, and afraid or unable to score or create. Yesterday it was the latter, and he has to show some ability and desire to create a shot in tough situations or else that's going to make him fall some spots come draft time. The kick-out in transition that turned into a contested 3 when he was ahead of a trailing Center close to the basket just cannot happen.

[FarBeyondDriven]

I mean look at the massive differences in 2pt fga column, ftr, usage all pretty important things when evaluating prospects.

If you can't see the difference in the fraudulent ts% compared to the other 6 guys then idk what to tell you.

That's not relevant.

If Sheppard was a volume scorer like those guys, he'd be the consensus number 1 pick.

I'm not saying he's the number 1 pick.

I'm saying he's a lottery pick.

The common thread Sheppard has with those other guys is his impact on winning, his ability to impact winning on both ends of the floor + tremendous efficiency at a very young age vs elite competition. That is enough to be a lottery pick.

Ignore the 2 pt FGA.

Just look at the BPM and TS%. We have never seen a high major freshman with these numbers NOT go in the lottery.

Sheppard might not shoot a ton of 2 ppt FG but those other guys on this list didn't shoot nearly as high from 3 as Sheppard. Only 1 of them had a higher assist % than Sheppard. 2 of them had lower blocks % than Sheppard. All of them had lower steals % than Sheppard. All of them had a lower TS% and lower eFG% than Sheppard. All of them had lower 3PA/100 possessions than Sheppard.

All of them had significantly lower offensive rating than Sheppard.

You can point out 2 stats Sheppard is low in, but I'll point out 10 stats he is high in. So what's your point?

Lastly, that FTr for Sheppard really isn't that bad for a guard. It's similar FTr to guys like Keyonte George (most scouts last season actually said Keyonte ability to draw fouls and get to the line was a strength for him last season), Jalen Brunson, Markelle Fultz, etc.

Sheppard FTr is higher than Dejounte Murray's as a freshman and Anthony Edwards as a freshman too.

Guy just went scoreless in the first 39 mins tonight before hitting a garbage time 3 in a blowout loss. Idk the exact mins he played yet but watching the majority of the 2nd half seemed like Cal went with other guys to try and get back into the game.

as is the case every time Kentucky has faced good guards Sheppard is less of a factor due to his inability to defend. All of their guards struggle, not just Sheppard though. But that's why he wasn't on the floor. SC had some pretty good athletes on the floor at the guard position and Sheppard was overmatched. Calipari wins with overwhelming talent and even then he routinely gets outcoached especially against good teams and in the tournament. Tonight was one of those nights. I don't know why bigs would ever choose to play for him nor why so many guards decided to go there since even in three guard lineups the touches are inconsistent.

[FarBeyondDriven]

They play South Carolina tonight.

Projected statline. 26 mins. 2/4 from three. 0/0 from inside arc. 2/2 fta. 8 pts. 4 assists. 2 steals. and 1 really sick look ahead pass.

you were much too generous

[Hal14]

I mean look at the massive differences in 2pt fga column, ftr, usage all pretty important things when evaluating prospects.

If you can't see the difference in the fraudulent ts% compared to the other 6 guys then idk what to tell you.

That's not relevant.

If Sheppard was a volume scorer like those guys, he'd be the consensus number 1 pick.

I'm not saying he's the number 1 pick.

I'm saying he's a lottery pick.

The common thread Sheppard has with those other guys is his impact on winning, his ability to impact winning on both ends of the floor + tremendous efficiency at a very young age vs elite competition. That is enough to be a lottery pick.

Ignore the 2 pt FGA.

Just look at the BPM and TS%. We have never seen a high major freshman with these numbers NOT go in the lottery.

Sheppard might not shoot a ton of 2 ppt FG but those other guys on this list didn't shoot nearly as high from 3 as Sheppard. Only 1 of them had a higher assist % than Sheppard. 2 of them had lower blocks % than Sheppard. All of them had lower steals % than Sheppard. All of them had a lower TS% and lower eFG% than Sheppard. All of them had lower 3PA/100 possessions than Sheppard.

All of them had significantly lower offensive rating than Sheppard.

You can point out 2 stats Sheppard is low in, but I'll point out 10 stats he is high in. So what's your point?

Lastly, that FTr for Sheppard really isn't that bad for a guard. It's similar FTr to guys like Keyonte George (most scouts last season actually said Keyonte ability to draw fouls and get to the line was a strength for him last season), Jalen Brunson, Markelle Fultz, etc.

Sheppard FTr is higher than Dejounte Murray's as a freshman and Anthony Edwards as a freshman too.

Guy just went scoreless in the first 39 mins tonight before hitting a garbage time 3 in a blowout loss. Idk the exact mins he played yet but watching the majority of the 2nd half seemed like Cal went with other guys to try and get back into the game.

1 bad game (a game where everyone on the team was bad) and you just couldn't wait to come on here and post about it.

Why don't you give it a rest?

Again, it's very weird behavior that you clearly are not high on Sheppard as a prospect yet you are the most active one in this thread and appear to be on a mission to constantly trash the kid.

Does it make you feel better to make 150 posts in the same thread trashing a 19 year old kid who is chasing his dreams of playing pro ball?

You have a snide comment to make about him before and after every damn game he plays - good grief.

[JMAC3]

1 bad game (a game where everyone on the team was bad) and you just couldn't wait to come on here and post about it.

Why don't you give it a rest?

Again, it's very weird behavior that you clearly are not high on Sheppard as a prospect yet you are the most active one in this thread and appear to be on a mission to constantly trash the kid.

Does it make you feel better to make 150 posts in the same thread trashing a 19 year old kid who is chasing his dreams of playing pro ball and is better at basketball at age 19 than you probably will be at anything in your entire life?

You have a snide comment to make about him before and after every damn game he plays - good grief.

Are you him? You must be related to him at this point.

Why don't we keep it about basketball instead of going off on a tangent about his family or whatever you are trying to really hammer home over the last 3 posts.

It is not 1 bad game. It is a trend since SEC play has started that he has been having a smaller and smaller role on offense. We are now 6 games in a row where he hasn't shot more than 5 fga.

I feel like he could shoot the ball 10 times total over the next 10 games and there would be people in here still preaching about his efficiency.

[clyde21]

he's shooting just 4.5 times per game in conference, that's such low volume that it's hard to draw any real conclusions about his shooting at this point. part of that is he has high BBIQ and doesn't take a lot of dumb shots, also has to share a lot of shots with Dilly and Wagner and Reeves, but it's also possible that he has trouble finding great looks for himself.

he's getting to the line more in conference, but his FT% dripped to mid 70s as well.

honestly he's guy that i wouldn't be surprised if he's a 12 year NBA player, or if he's out of the league in 5 years. its gonna come down to how he translates athletically and just how high his BBIQ really is. i'd probably be much more comfortable with him in the mid first than in the lotto at this point because even if he hits I'm not sure what the ceiling is. but we'll see.

[JMAC3]

he's shooting just 4.5 times per game in conference, that's such low volume that it's hard to draw any real conclusions about his shooting at this point. part of that is he has high BBIQ and doesn't take a lot of dumb shots, also has to share a lot of shots with Dilly and Wagner and Reeves, but it's also possible that he has trouble finding great looks for himself.

he's getting to the line more in conference, but his FT% dripped to mid 70s as well.

honestly he's guy that i wouldn't be surprised if he's a 12 year NBA player, or if he's out of the league in 5 years. its gonna come down to how he translates athletically and just how high his BBIQ really is. i'd probably be much more comfortable with him in the mid first than in the lotto at this point because even if he hits I'm not sure what the ceiling is. but we'll see.

I am sure this will be a hater comment, but I think his FTr is a bit inflated. He shoots so little that any free throws he does shoot are so heavily weighted.

For instance... he shot 11 free throws in Florida game which was by far his most all year so I wanted to see why.... 6 of which that came in the final 19 seconds because Florida was losing and had to foul. Normally I wouldn't care because most guys that doesn't impact FTr a lot but for a guy that is shooting so little it's more of a factor. He has only shot 41 free throws all year so those gimme ones are 15% of free throws right there.

Like a certain point shooting 2 free throws per game is what it is.

[Hal14]

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[JMAC3]

Having to cut to high school highlights after 45 seconds because you run out of useable college footage isn't a great sign. Even still these takes to the basket couldn't be more average, feels like any starting guard at Winthrop or Indiana State could put these on tape.

[FarBeyondDriven]

Having to cut to high school highlights after 45 seconds because you run out of useable college footage isn't a great sign. Even still these takes to the basket couldn't be more average, feels like any starting guard at Winthrop or Indiana State could put these on tape.

agreed, nothing suggests he will be able to do this in college let alone at the next level. Though, counterpoint, these Kentucky and Duke guards all choosing to play at the same school is not really allowing them to shine and showcase different aspects of their games.

Caleb Foster is Duke's biggest and best defensive point guard. When he's on the floor no matter who with, he's usually the lead guard. He's shooting 40% from three too. But because of the other three guards he takes a major backseat when it comes to getting shots and plays run for him. He's takes a back seat and is very reluctant to take guys off the dribble though he's at least flashed this ability. It's really killed his draft stock. He could very well be capable of much better scoring and numbers but we'll never know. Even though I see him as a OAD, he's likely going to have to return.

Sheppard might be capable of being a lead guard and getting by guys off the dribble but that's not the opportunities that present themselves due to Kentucky having three other guards and a loaded roster. It's hurting his draft stock and while I think he's potentially a OAD it wouldn't shock me if he chooses to return so he gets the opportunity to be a lead guard next year.