Jaren Jackson Jr.

[EvanZ]

FWIW, I just posted (no pun) some post-up stats from Synergy. JJJ doesn't look all that bad inside by this metric.

Read on Twitter

[yoyoboy]

Isn't Jontay a horrible rim finisher though? I heard something like 50% at the rim, that's not what you want in a center.

But he's damn young and could improve more than most in the draft...he's supposed to be in HS right now.

JJr is really bad too inside and I don't think he has much more than spot up shooting potential because of his weird pulling mechanics from his chest limits him off the dribble.

Porter: 60% at the rim
Jacson: 65% at the rim

Bagley: 76% at the rim
Bamba: 78% at the rim
Ayton: 82% at the rim

Jackson dribble drove far more than all those guys ahead of him and it's led to some rough shots so he hadn't been efficient at it, which has tanked his overall finishing efficiency. I'm not worried. In fact, the fact that he's so willing and able to explore that part of the game (as the youngest player in the draft outside of Jontay if I'm not mistaken and considerably younger than the other bigs) is a very good sign. The attacks of closeouts and even the ability to take guys off the dribble at times are both very impressive even though he hasn't been great at finishing the play. That'll come. Also his shooting has an unorthodox form, but I still have no doubt he'll be the best shooter at the next level of any of the lottery bigs. An 18 year old shooting 40% from three on decent enough volume and 80% from the FT line projects to be a good shooter.

He moves with catlike agility laterally and should be a PnR defending/switching dynamo at the next level. He has fantastic timing and length to contest virtually everything around the rim, even though his explosiveness isn't great. He just needs to bulk up so he can handle bigger players in the post and fortunately he has the frame to add some mass.

[EvanZ]

Also his shooting has an unorthodox form, but I still have no doubt he'll be the best shooter at the next level of any of the lottery bigs. An 18 year old shooting 40% from three on decent enough volume and 80% from the FT line projects to be a good shooter.

I love JJJ have him #2 on my board.

But Jontay will be the best shooter out of the bigs in this class. His stroke and release time is by far the best among the bigs in the class, and other than Trae and Huerter, maybe 3rd best in the entire Draft.

[yoyoboy]

Also his shooting has an unorthodox form, but I still have no doubt he'll be the best shooter at the next level of any of the lottery bigs. An 18 year old shooting 40% from three on decent enough volume and 80% from the FT line projects to be a good shooter.

I love JJJ have him #2 on my board.

But Jontay will be the best shooter out of the bigs in this class. His stroke and release time is by far the best among the bigs in the class, and other than Trae and Huerter, maybe 3rd best in the entire Draft.

I agree with that possibility. But I don't think Jontay will get selected in the lottery even though I'm a fan of him.

[EvanZ]

I agree with that possibility. But I don't think Jontay will get selected in the lottery even though I'm a fan of him.

Yeah, maybe not. I have him 6 on my board, but I'm not an NBA GM.

[Shady Franchise]

A little something to take in consideration:

If you scaled Jaren Jacksons minutes to ~32-33 minutes a game like Bagley, Bamba, Ayton it would look like

17.1 ppg, 8.7rpg, 4.9 bpg while making 1.8 3PT per game and getting to the FT line 6 times a game. Those are some ridiculous numbers when you put it into context like that

I’m really not a fan of these kind of comparisons in terms of just adding up what his numbers would look like with more minutes. It doesn’t say anything. He’s playing against a lot of guys that are undersized, some bad players and some bad teams. NBA is also literally a different game since the NCAA has a shorter three point less, less talented players than the NBA and a longer shot clock. This is a non-story.

Isn't he comparing the stats to other college players (Bagley, Bamba, Ayton?). If so, it does indeed "say something".

[doordoor123]

A little something to take in consideration:

If you scaled Jaren Jacksons minutes to ~32-33 minutes a game like Bagley, Bamba, Ayton it would look like

17.1 ppg, 8.7rpg, 4.9 bpg while making 1.8 3PT per game and getting to the FT line 6 times a game. Those are some ridiculous numbers when you put it into context like that

I’m really not a fan of these kind of comparisons in terms of just adding up what his numbers would look like with more minutes. It doesn’t say anything. He’s playing against a lot of guys that are undersized, some bad players and some bad teams. NBA is also literally a different game since the NCAA has a shorter three point less, less talented players than the NBA and a longer shot clock. This is a non-story.

Isn't he comparing the stats to other college players (Bagley, Bamba, Ayton?). If so, it does indeed "say something".

Stats matter, but in the grand scheme of things they don’t because players improve and players translate differently to the NBA game. Someone who is a terrible defender in college like John Collins is actually pretty solid in the NBA and vice-versa. What matters is the eye-test and comparing a college players visual game to the NBA game and seeing how and where they fit in. Stats help in seeing how effective some of that visual translatable stuff is.

[Shady Franchise]

I’m really not a fan of these kind of comparisons in terms of just adding up what his numbers would look like with more minutes. It doesn’t say anything. He’s playing against a lot of guys that are undersized, some bad players and some bad teams. NBA is also literally a different game since the NCAA has a shorter three point less, less talented players than the NBA and a longer shot clock. This is a non-story.

Isn't he comparing the stats to other college players (Bagley, Bamba, Ayton?). If so, it does indeed "say something".

Stats matter, but in the grand scheme of things they don’t because players improve and players translate differently to the NBA game. Someone who is a terrible defender in college like John Collins is actually pretty solid in the NBA and vice-versa. What matters is the eye-test and comparing a college players visual game to the NBA game and seeing how and where they fit in. Stats help in seeing how effective some of that visual translatable stuff is.

OK, got it. I thought you were comparing his college stats to NBA players, but not doing the same for Bagley, Ayton, etc.

[JMac1]

Yuck!

[EricAnderson]

If I’m picking high I want a guy who at least has the potential to be the 1st option on a contender one day and JJJ is never gonna be that.

[3toheadmelo]

dude is overhyped like crazy

[MemphisX]

If I’m picking high I want a guy who at least has the potential to be the 1st option on a contender one day and JJJ is never gonna be that.

What does high mean? Because there isn't usually one of these guys available in every draft.

I do agree that in the top 5, I would want someone that has actually produced. But production is relative because JJJ produced in the minutes he played. The big question is: why didn't he play more?

[nolang1]

If I’m picking high I want a guy who at least has the potential to be the 1st option on a contender one day and JJJ is never gonna be that.

What does high mean? Because there isn't usually one of these guys available in every draft.

I do agree that in the top 5, I would want someone that has actually produced. But production is relative because JJJ produced in the minutes he played. The big question is: why didn't he play more?

He fouled a ton and there were games that Michigan State went on a huge run when he was on the bench. I get that from an analytics perspective coaches can sometimes be too conservative when it comes to foul trouble, but when we're talking about a player who was regularly capable of fouling out in 15-20 minutes it's not like keeping him in after two quick fouls would have resulted in that many more minutes for him.

As a super young freshman big, his conditioning isn't all the way there yet either; he only went above the 30 minute mark twice for the season and two of his 4 highest-minute games were against Wisconsin, a team that played at the 5th-slowest pace in the entire country. In addition, he seemed to wear down later in the season (62% on field goals in January, 53% in February, 42% in March).

[SeattleJazzFan]

there were times when mich state went on huge runs while he was on the bench. lol. there were times they went on huge runs when he played. get outta here with that weak stuff. provide some real evidence that mich state was better without Jackson on the floor if that is your argument.

[nolang1]

there were times when mich state went on huge runs while he was on the bench. lol. there were times they went on huge runs when he played. get outta here with that weak stuff. provide some real evidence that mich state was better without Jackson on the floor if that is your argument.

No, you just need to get better at reading. I was stating a fact, which is that there were some games that Jackson didn't get much playing time because the team happened to go on a run while he was on the bench and Izzo stayed with the group making the run; not exactly a conspiracy or incompetent coaching keeping Jackson on the bench in those cases. This happened in games against UNC (11/26), Northwestern (2/17), and Penn State (1/31), and I'm sure there are others I'm forgetting.

Michigan State's offense actually was slightly better when Jackson was on the bench and his overall on/off impact wasn’t as transformative as one would expect from a player with a BPM above 15, but that is totally incidental to the point I was making.

[doordoor123]

there were times when mich state went on huge runs while he was on the bench. lol. there were times they went on huge runs when he played. get outta here with that weak stuff. provide some real evidence that mich state was better without Jackson on the floor if that is your argument.

No, you just need to get better at reading. I was stating a fact, which is that there were some games that Jackson didn't get much playing time because the team happened to go on a run while he was on the bench and Izzo stayed with the group making the run.

Michigan State's offense actually was better when Jackson was on the bench, but that is totally incidental to the point I was making.

Nick Ward is underrated. Really smart player.

[SeattleJazzFan]

there were times when mich state went on huge runs while he was on the bench. lol. there were times they went on huge runs when he played. get outta here with that weak stuff. provide some real evidence that mich state was better without Jackson on the floor if that is your argument.

No, you just need to get better at reading. I was stating a fact, which is that there were some games that Jackson didn't get much playing time because the team happened to go on a run while he was on the bench and Izzo stayed with the group making the run; not exactly a conspiracy or incompetent coaching keeping Jackson on the bench in those cases. This happened in games against UNC (11/26), Northwestern (2/17), and Penn State (1/31), and I'm sure there are others I'm forgetting.

Michigan State's offense actually was slightly better when Jackson was on the bench and his overall on/off impact wasn’t as transformative as one would expect from a player with a BPM above 15, but that is totally incidental to the point I was making.

and its a ridiculous point. that happens to every player at different times. they get in foul trouble and their team goes on runs, so the coach stays with the group going on the run. this isn't unique to jackson. its a dumb point to make and proves nothing.

offense better when jackson is on the bench. again, that's weak. come with some evidence if you are going say stuff like that.

120 ORtg with JJJ on the floor, OBPM of 5.1.

[nolang1]

there were times when mich state went on huge runs while he was on the bench. lol. there were times they went on huge runs when he played. get outta here with that weak stuff. provide some real evidence that mich state was better without Jackson on the floor if that is your argument.

No, you just need to get better at reading. I was stating a fact, which is that there were some games that Jackson didn't get much playing time because the team happened to go on a run while he was on the bench and Izzo stayed with the group making the run; not exactly a conspiracy or incompetent coaching keeping Jackson on the bench in those cases. This happened in games against UNC (11/26), Northwestern (2/17), and Penn State (1/31), and I'm sure there are others I'm forgetting.

Michigan State's offense actually was slightly better when Jackson was on the bench and his overall on/off impact wasn’t as transformative as one would expect from a player with a BPM above 15, but that is totally incidental to the point I was making.

and its a ridiculous point. that happens to every player at different times. they get in foul trouble and their team goes on runs, so the coach stays with the group going on the run. this isn't unique to jackson. its a dumb point to make and proves nothing.

offense better when jackson is on the bench. again, that's weak. come with some evidence if you are going say stuff like that.

120 ORtg with JJJ on the floor, OBPM of 5.1.

Relative to the average college player, Jackson got into foul trouble much more often and played with much better teammates, so it actually is somewhat unique to him. Teams aren't going to be making a run too often if a player gets into foul trouble and his replacement is bad, and there are plenty of players who play enough minutes that there isn't enough time for a team to go on an extended run without them. Anyways, I wasn't even trying to make a 'point.' The poster I replied to asked why he didn't play many minutes and I provided some reasons why he didn't play many minutes. At that point you chose to butt in and interpret them in maybe the most moronic, semi-literate way possible.

Michigan State's ORTG improved by 2 points with Jackson off the court when you look at how many points per possession the team actually scored with him on vs. off, rather than the box score-derived estimates you are citing. If you are unable to understand what that means, it's cool with me as I wasn't replying you originally and don't feel any obligation to hold your hand and teach you math.

[MemphisX]

Fouling is just part of the equation. However, Izzo sat him down the stretch of a tournament game and he wasn't in foul trouble and his team did not go on a run.

[Pinkyring]

According to woj "sources" jjj had a monster workout with phoenix