Cameron Boozer

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Re: Cameron Boozer 

Post#241 » by King Ken » Mon Dec 29, 2025 8:24 am

tmorgan wrote:
CptCrunch wrote:Duke players are picked apart for no apparent reason. Cooper 6th pick in 2025 Flagg. Kon 'role player' Knuepppel.

Now 23/10/4 true freshman Boozer is a 5-10 pick. Delusional hatred of Duke is strong here.


You know, for us older posters, there’s a reason some bias might creep in. Duke has a pretty long history of getting guys over-drafted, because, up until Coach K’s aging out, they had a really long run of impressive March performances, top recruits, and coaching able to maximize their strengths and hide their weaknesses.

As I am indeed old and suffering through a CE hangover, I don’t feel like compiling a list, but I assure you this the case. This year, of course, the two highest drafted Blue Devils are killing it, which is great to see. Maluach not so much, but you can’t win ‘em all.

In any case, it’s not “delusional hatred”, and saying such sounds really childish.

None of them have been anywhere near as good or as productive as Boozer. Not even close. Even a bust that most of us Duke supporters was high on like Marvin Bagley III and Wendell Carter weren't anywhere close to Cam.
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Re: Cameron Boozer 

Post#242 » by Capn'O » Mon Dec 29, 2025 4:59 pm

Boozer goes to Duke and he kind of looks like Marvin Bagley, who is a bust. Also, his athleticism doesn't pop. I think that plays into the skepticism.

I don't think he plays like Bagley though, who got by in college due to superior athleticism, which he doesn't have in the bigs. Boozer is more skilled. He reminds me a bit of Sengun. Would his NBA position be PF?
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Re: Cameron Boozer 

Post#243 » by Duke4life831 » Mon Dec 29, 2025 6:13 pm

As a Duke homer, I’m one of the more vocal people on here questioning Boozer’s fit in the NBA. I was also pretty vocal on questioning Kon’s potential in the NBA.

Using those two as examples, I don’t think that’s a Duke thing, I think it’s strictly an archetype thing.

How many guards like Kon are All-NBA level players? 6’5 with a 6’6 wingspan and at best below average athleticism. The bet was, he was just so freakishly skilled that he could overcome the athleticism issues. Has that happened? Ya sure is looking like it. But if he ended up being just Luke Kennard 2.0, I don’t think too many people would be scratching their heads, asking “what went wrong with Kon”.

Same goes for Boozer. How many 6’8 sub 7’ wingspan, who are below the rim players with slow feet dominating the NBA right now? There are basically 2 examples. Sabonis: who for basically his entire career people have been asking if you could actually win with him (hasn’t won a playoff series in his career). And Sengun. Then the question is, what if he ends up just being say 80% of the passer Sengun is. Is that still a very valuable player?

Can Boozer end up being this year’s version of Kon but for big men. Where he’s just so skilled/crafty and productive where any physical limitation questions just kind of get forgotten? Ya. But let’s not act like the questions about Boozer and his fit in the current NBA isn’t a very valid one. Especially in a draft that has the top end talent this one has
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Re: Cameron Boozer 

Post#244 » by greenOakX » Mon Dec 29, 2025 9:28 pm

Duke4life831 wrote:As a Duke homer, I’m one of the more vocal people on here questioning Boozer’s fit in the NBA. I was also pretty vocal on questioning Kon’s potential in the NBA.

Using those two as examples, I don’t think that’s a Duke thing, I think it’s strictly an archetype thing.

How many guards like Kon are All-NBA level players? 6’5 with a 6’6 wingspan and at best below average athleticism. The bet was, he was just so freakishly skilled that he could overcome the athleticism issues. Has that happened? Ya sure is looking like it. But if he ended up being just Luke Kennard 2.0, I don’t think too many people would be scratching their heads, asking “what went wrong with Kon”.

Same goes for Boozer. How many 6’8 sub 7’ wingspan, who are below the rim players with slow feet dominating the NBA right now? There are basically 2 examples. Sabonis: who for basically his entire career people have been asking if you could actually win with him (hasn’t won a playoff series in his career). And Sengun. Then the question is, what if he ends up just being say 80% of the passer Sengun is. Is that still a very valuable player?

Can Boozer end up being this year’s version of Kon but for big men. Where he’s just so skilled/crafty and productive where any physical limitation questions just kind of get forgotten? Ya. But let’s not act like the questions about Boozer and his fit in the current NBA isn’t a very valid one. Especially in a draft that has the top end talent this one has


But how many of the players who fit the bolded category put up a near 20BPM in college? None. There simply isn't an example of a player whose been as productive pre-NBA as Boozer who hasn't turned into a good player. Furthermore, we have examples of super-productive prospects who have fallen due to athleticsm concerns (Doncic & Sengun being the most recent). They have a good track record.

Calling Boozer this year's version of Kon is underselling how good Boozer has been (including pre-college). He blows Kon's production out of the water and is basically a year younger than Kon was. I'd argue he's a significantly better athlete too.
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Re: Cameron Boozer 

Post#245 » by JMAC3 » Wed Dec 31, 2025 12:03 am

Duke4life831 wrote:As a Duke homer, I’m one of the more vocal people on here questioning Boozer’s fit in the NBA. I was also pretty vocal on questioning Kon’s potential in the NBA.

Using those two as examples, I don’t think that’s a Duke thing, I think it’s strictly an archetype thing.

How many guards like Kon are All-NBA level players? 6’5 with a 6’6 wingspan and at best below average athleticism. The bet was, he was just so freakishly skilled that he could overcome the athleticism issues. Has that happened? Ya sure is looking like it. But if he ended up being just Luke Kennard 2.0, I don’t think too many people would be scratching their heads, asking “what went wrong with Kon”.

Same goes for Boozer. How many 6’8 sub 7’ wingspan, who are below the rim players with slow feet dominating the NBA right now? There are basically 2 examples. Sabonis: who for basically his entire career people have been asking if you could actually win with him (hasn’t won a playoff series in his career). And Sengun. Then the question is, what if he ends up just being say 80% of the passer Sengun is. Is that still a very valuable player?

Can Boozer end up being this year’s version of Kon but for big men. Where he’s just so skilled/crafty and productive where any physical limitation questions just kind of get forgotten? Ya. But let’s not act like the questions about Boozer and his fit in the current NBA isn’t a very valid one. Especially in a draft that has the top end talent this one has


The front offices that care about Analytics over the Eye Test will rate him higher.
I do agree with a lot of what is being said here.

He can still be a really good player in the NBA by being productive, smart and strong. However, I fail to see him being a top tier superstar with his lack of explosiveness and physical gifts.

I have come around to Kon being a good player, watching him for the Hornets all year. However, I am still not really sold on his long-term ceiling of ever being a top 30 guy, which again isn't a reason not to draft a guy. However, if you are debating guys 1 or 2 in a draft you have to consider it to some degree.

Kon is very good, but he has terrible block rate, bad steal rate and he is currently shooting 56% at the rim (which is 14th percentile). Now he shoots the cover off the ball and that is awesome early return but his lack of athleticism is probably not going to massively improve and make those earlier statistics a positive. He profiles as a wing that will never be a plus defender, to me that limits his long-term value.

Boozer gives me Kevin Love vibes. Ultra productive, will be an all-star in the NBA but the ceiling was never really there to be a first option on a good team. He profiled better as 2nd or 3rd option.
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Re: Cameron Boozer 

Post#246 » by Duke4life831 » Wed Dec 31, 2025 12:15 am

greenOakX wrote:
Duke4life831 wrote:As a Duke homer, I’m one of the more vocal people on here questioning Boozer’s fit in the NBA. I was also pretty vocal on questioning Kon’s potential in the NBA.

Using those two as examples, I don’t think that’s a Duke thing, I think it’s strictly an archetype thing.

How many guards like Kon are All-NBA level players? 6’5 with a 6’6 wingspan and at best below average athleticism. The bet was, he was just so freakishly skilled that he could overcome the athleticism issues. Has that happened? Ya sure is looking like it. But if he ended up being just Luke Kennard 2.0, I don’t think too many people would be scratching their heads, asking “what went wrong with Kon”.

Same goes for Boozer. How many 6’8 sub 7’ wingspan, who are below the rim players with slow feet dominating the NBA right now? There are basically 2 examples. Sabonis: who for basically his entire career people have been asking if you could actually win with him (hasn’t won a playoff series in his career). And Sengun. Then the question is, what if he ends up just being say 80% of the passer Sengun is. Is that still a very valuable player?

Can Boozer end up being this year’s version of Kon but for big men. Where he’s just so skilled/crafty and productive where any physical limitation questions just kind of get forgotten? Ya. But let’s not act like the questions about Boozer and his fit in the current NBA isn’t a very valid one. Especially in a draft that has the top end talent this one has


But how many of the players who fit the bolded category put up a near 20BPM in college? None. There simply isn't an example of a player whose been as productive pre-NBA as Boozer who hasn't turned into a good player. Furthermore, we have examples of super-productive prospects who have fallen due to athleticsm concerns (Doncic & Sengun being the most recent). They have a good track record.

Calling Boozer this year's version of Kon is underselling how good Boozer has been (including pre-college). He blows Kon's production out of the water and is basically a year younger than Kon was. I'd argue he's a significantly better athlete too.


First thing first, I wouldn’t hold onto that “20 BPM” number. Conference play hasn’t even started yet. Most players numbers tend to drop off as the season goes on. Because the every other game playing against teams that most people didn’t know existed and don’t have more than 1 player over 6’8, goes away.

With that said, Vernon Carey had a 34 PER as a freshman, consensus 2nd team all American. Jared Sullinger was a consensus 1st team All American each of his 2 years in college. Okafor was a consensus 1st team all American and finished 2nd in NPOY voting as a freshman.

What do they all have in common? Elite high school players, were elite the second they stepped foot on a college court. But all of them also had an out dated archetype for today’s NBA. All of them were out of the league essentially by the end of their rookie deals.

Do I think Boozer is better than all of those players? Without a doubt. Do I think Boozer will be out of the league by the time he’s 25? No chance in hell.

But that doesn’t change the fact that his best comps when it comes to his archetype in the NBA, are classic PFs that are now extinct in the NBA.
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Re: Cameron Boozer 

Post#247 » by Duke4life831 » Wed Dec 31, 2025 12:22 am

JMAC3 wrote:
Duke4life831 wrote:As a Duke homer, I’m one of the more vocal people on here questioning Boozer’s fit in the NBA. I was also pretty vocal on questioning Kon’s potential in the NBA.

Using those two as examples, I don’t think that’s a Duke thing, I think it’s strictly an archetype thing.

How many guards like Kon are All-NBA level players? 6’5 with a 6’6 wingspan and at best below average athleticism. The bet was, he was just so freakishly skilled that he could overcome the athleticism issues. Has that happened? Ya sure is looking like it. But if he ended up being just Luke Kennard 2.0, I don’t think too many people would be scratching their heads, asking “what went wrong with Kon”.

Same goes for Boozer. How many 6’8 sub 7’ wingspan, who are below the rim players with slow feet dominating the NBA right now? There are basically 2 examples. Sabonis: who for basically his entire career people have been asking if you could actually win with him (hasn’t won a playoff series in his career). And Sengun. Then the question is, what if he ends up just being say 80% of the passer Sengun is. Is that still a very valuable player?

Can Boozer end up being this year’s version of Kon but for big men. Where he’s just so skilled/crafty and productive where any physical limitation questions just kind of get forgotten? Ya. But let’s not act like the questions about Boozer and his fit in the current NBA isn’t a very valid one. Especially in a draft that has the top end talent this one has


The front offices that care about Analytics over the Eye Test will rate him higher.
I do agree with a lot of what is being said here.

He can still be a really good player in the NBA by being productive, smart and strong. However, I fail to see him being a top tier superstar with his lack of explosiveness and physical gifts.

I have come around to Kon being a good player, watching him for the Hornets all year. However, I am still not really sold on his long-term ceiling of ever being a top 30 guy, which again isn't a reason not to draft a guy. However, if you are debating guys 1 or 2 in a draft you have to consider it to some degree.

Kon is very good, but he has terrible block rate, bad steal rate and he is currently shooting 56% at the rim (which is 14th percentile). Now he shoots the cover off the ball and that is awesome early return but his lack of athleticism is probably not going to massively improve and make those earlier statistics a positive. He profiles as a wing that will never be a plus defender, to me that limits his long-term value.

Boozer gives me Kevin Love vibes. Ultra productive, will be an all-star in the NBA but the ceiling was never really there to be a first option on a good team. He profiled better as 2nd or 3rd option.


Ya this is the point I’m making. I’m not claiming I think Boozer will be out of the league quickly. I think at minimum, he has a long career as an offensive spark big man off the bench like a Bobby Portis (not saying identical play styles, but general career arc). Do I think there is a chance Cam is just on a different level with his skill set and productivity he creates his own high level archetype in today’s NBA? Ya. I’m just not sure how likely that is.

And another thing is, I’m just not sure there is much wiggle room for him. Like if he doesn’t come in and be Sengun level of offensive hub. What’s his role? I feel like he either has to be a star, or he turns into that offensive spark big man off the bench. This is my main issue with Cam at the next level. If he’s not your offensive hub, is he a starter? Slow feet, non rim protector, solid 3pt shooter but not lights out (33% on the season so far). He does the majority of his work 5ft and in, playing a back 2 the basket bull in a china shop kind of style. Teams aren’t lining up for that from their 4 man, if he doesn’t provide being the offensive hub as well.
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Re: Cameron Boozer 

Post#248 » by CptCrunch » Wed Dec 31, 2025 11:24 am

greenOakX wrote:
Duke4life831 wrote:As a Duke homer, I’m one of the more vocal people on here questioning Boozer’s fit in the NBA. I was also pretty vocal on questioning Kon’s potential in the NBA.

Using those two as examples, I don’t think that’s a Duke thing, I think it’s strictly an archetype thing.

How many guards like Kon are All-NBA level players? 6’5 with a 6’6 wingspan and at best below average athleticism. The bet was, he was just so freakishly skilled that he could overcome the athleticism issues. Has that happened? Ya sure is looking like it. But if he ended up being just Luke Kennard 2.0, I don’t think too many people would be scratching their heads, asking “what went wrong with Kon”.

Same goes for Boozer. How many 6’8 sub 7’ wingspan, who are below the rim players with slow feet dominating the NBA right now? There are basically 2 examples. Sabonis: who for basically his entire career people have been asking if you could actually win with him (hasn’t won a playoff series in his career). And Sengun. Then the question is, what if he ends up just being say 80% of the passer Sengun is. Is that still a very valuable player?

Can Boozer end up being this year’s version of Kon but for big men. Where he’s just so skilled/crafty and productive where any physical limitation questions just kind of get forgotten? Ya. But let’s not act like the questions about Boozer and his fit in the current NBA isn’t a very valid one. Especially in a draft that has the top end talent this one has


But how many of the players who fit the bolded category put up a near 20BPM in college? None. There simply isn't an example of a player whose been as productive pre-NBA as Boozer who hasn't turned into a good player. Furthermore, we have examples of super-productive prospects who have fallen due to athleticsm concerns (Doncic & Sengun being the most recent). They have a good track record.

Calling Boozer this year's version of Kon is underselling how good Boozer has been (including pre-college). He blows Kon's production out of the water and is basically a year younger than Kon was. I'd argue he's a significantly better athlete too.


True freshman with high bpm (historic or NCAA leading) has basically a 1.000 batting average. Even the fails end up as role players.
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Re: Cameron Boozer 

Post#249 » by G R E Y » Wed Dec 31, 2025 3:22 pm

Duke4life831 wrote:As a Duke homer, I’m one of the more vocal people on here questioning Boozer’s fit in the NBA. I was also pretty vocal on questioning Kon’s potential in the NBA.

Using those two as examples, I don’t think that’s a Duke thing, I think it’s strictly an archetype thing.

How many guards like Kon are All-NBA level players? 6’5 with a 6’6 wingspan and at best below average athleticism. The bet was, he was just so freakishly skilled that he could overcome the athleticism issues. Has that happened? Ya sure is looking like it. But if he ended up being just Luke Kennard 2.0, I don’t think too many people would be scratching their heads, asking “what went wrong with Kon”.

Same goes for Boozer. How many 6’8 sub 7’ wingspan, who are below the rim players with slow feet dominating the NBA right now? There are basically 2 examples. Sabonis: who for basically his entire career people have been asking if you could actually win with him (hasn’t won a playoff series in his career). And Sengun. Then the question is, what if he ends up just being say 80% of the passer Sengun is. Is that still a very valuable player?

Can Boozer end up being this year’s version of Kon but for big men. Where he’s just so skilled/crafty and productive where any physical limitation questions just kind of get forgotten? Ya. But let’s not act like the questions about Boozer and his fit in the current NBA isn’t a very valid one. Especially in a draft that has the top end talent this one has

I'm having a harder time seeing his NBA translation than I did with Kon. Great shooters are always going to be a hot commodity, and so far Kon is doing very well.

Boozer's slower feet concern me. And he's not super athletic. Does his skill set translate well in a more physical, faster NBA?

We need to shore up our 3 and 4 starters long term. We have Atl's pick (currently 12th) and I'd be thrilled if we could draft Yaxel. Even with his age. And I'm not sure I wouldn't draft him over Boozer, all things considered, in particular our specific situation. Yaxel would be the ultimate plug and play without worrying whether his game could fit/translate well.

Does Boozer have that high a ceiling that Yaxel does not compare right now? Will Boozer be that much better than Yaxel at the latter's current age?
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Re: Cameron Boozer 

Post#250 » by tmorgan » Wed Dec 31, 2025 5:04 pm

Ehhhhh, I don’t know. I’m obviously a huge Yaxel homer, but his “star upside” or whatever is still limited. He’s a do-it-all type, but I have no reason to believe he’ll be a star, or even close to one. He’s just… good. And likely very ready from year one to provide value on his contract.

Boozer will go before Lendeborg because of his age, pedigree and raw numbers. Justifiably so. He definitely has the higher ceiling, even if he just turns into Julius Randle or a more modern version of his dad. But there’s a very real chance Yaxel has the better career because he’s an easier fit in today’s NBA, and if Boozer goes 3rd or 4th and Lendeborg goes 10th or 12th, to me the latter’s a better pick.
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Re: Cameron Boozer 

Post#251 » by ezhkw8u69e » Wed Dec 31, 2025 5:52 pm

Beasley was around before BPM but I'm sure it would have been high. He busted and was never really even a useful role player. But he was also basically a dummy. I think Boozer will figure out how to be useful even if it's not a star role.

One thing I'll say is as much as I like Boozer it's hard for me to imagine an offense ever running through him. Unless it's kind of like Jimmy Butler iso. I guess that's possible. Boozer doesn't have a ton of moves though, he just kind of physically dominates smaller players. Not sure that will translate well.
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Re: Cameron Boozer 

Post#252 » by CptCrunch » Wed Dec 31, 2025 6:55 pm

EvanZ wrote:Beasley was around before BPM but I'm sure it would have been high. He busted and was never really even a useful role player. But he was also basically a dummy. I think Boozer will figure out how to be useful even if it's not a star role.

One thing I'll say is as much as I like Boozer it's hard for me to imagine an offense ever running through him. Unless it's kind of like Jimmy Butler iso. I guess that's possible. Boozer doesn't have a ton of moves though, he just kind of physically dominates smaller players. Not sure that will translate well.


We can calculate historical BPM by applying the BPM coefficient to his box score stats. Since official BPM data on Sports-Reference only begins in 2011, this "Rough BPM" provides a raw impact estimate based on his 43.1 PTS, 20.3 TRB, 2.1 STL, and 2.7 BLK per 100 possessions.
Calculation using the latest coefficients, we find his scoring impact (0.15 * 43.1 + 0.12 * 11.0 TS% bonus) yields 7.79, his playmaking (0.20 * 1.9 AST - 0.15 * 4.7 TOV) adds -0.33, his rebounding (0.08 * 6.5 ORB + 0.05 * 13.8 DRB) adds 1.21, and his defensive stocks (0.25 * 2.1 STL + 0.20 * 2.7 BLK) add 1.07, resulting in a rough BPM of 9.74.

With Beasy's heavy usage, he would receive a pure creator penalty of -2.77 and neutral position penalty of 0. His rough estimated BPM is in the 7-8 range really. K-state would get an upward adjustment under BPM 2.0 but I highly doubt that will lift him into the 13-15 range.
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Re: Cameron Boozer 

Post#253 » by greenOakX » Wed Dec 31, 2025 9:30 pm

Beasley is in the barttorvik database which uses it's own version of BPM. His BPM comes out at 14.9 which is 4th all-time for freshmen behind only Flagg, Zion, and AD (Boozer would finish above him too at this pace). However, I think his statistical projection would be considerably worse given his awful 0.57 A/TO ratio, which is one of the strongest statistical indicators of future success.
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Re: Cameron Boozer 

Post#254 » by Chi town » Wed Dec 31, 2025 9:46 pm

Duke4life831 wrote:As a Duke homer, I’m one of the more vocal people on here questioning Boozer’s fit in the NBA. I was also pretty vocal on questioning Kon’s potential in the NBA.

Using those two as examples, I don’t think that’s a Duke thing, I think it’s strictly an archetype thing.

How many guards like Kon are All-NBA level players? 6’5 with a 6’6 wingspan and at best below average athleticism. The bet was, he was just so freakishly skilled that he could overcome the athleticism issues. Has that happened? Ya sure is looking like it. But if he ended up being just Luke Kennard 2.0, I don’t think too many people would be scratching their heads, asking “what went wrong with Kon”.

Same goes for Boozer. How many 6’8 sub 7’ wingspan, who are below the rim players with slow feet dominating the NBA right now? There are basically 2 examples. Sabonis: who for basically his entire career people have been asking if you could actually win with him (hasn’t won a playoff series in his career). And Sengun. Then the question is, what if he ends up just being say 80% of the passer Sengun is. Is that still a very valuable player?

Can Boozer end up being this year’s version of Kon but for big men. Where he’s just so skilled/crafty and productive where any physical limitation questions just kind of get forgotten? Ya. But let’s not act like the questions about Boozer and his fit in the current NBA isn’t a very valid one. Especially in a draft that has the top end talent this one has


Cam will be a lot like Elton Brand. Fill up the stat sheet due to skill, motor, IQ and body. His body can play day one. Kon has a stocky frame and he uses it really well to creat contact and absorb contact. Both player will be really good in the league because of their skill and frame.
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Re: Cameron Boozer 

Post#255 » by CptCrunch » Wed Dec 31, 2025 11:06 pm

greenOakX wrote:Beasley is in the barttorvik database which uses it's own version of BPM. His BPM comes out at 14.9 which is 4th all-time for freshmen behind only Flagg, Zion, and AD (Boozer would finish above him too at this pace). However, I think his statistical projection would be considerably worse given his awful 0.57 A/TO ratio, which is one of the strongest statistical indicators of future success.


And I just want to note that Beasley didn't succeed in the NBA not because he lacked talent or athleticism. His mentality was the main reason for him not reaching his ceiling.

I believe everyone here would be in agreement that college BPM says nothing about mentality. BPM as the single measure of a true freshman is literally the single best public predictor of NBA success.

(BPM really shouldn't be 'different' things across sites. BPM 2.0 has unfortunately made this a reality...)
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Re: Cameron Boozer 

Post#256 » by ezhkw8u69e » Thu Jan 1, 2026 12:00 am

CptCrunch wrote:
greenOakX wrote:Beasley is in the barttorvik database which uses it's own version of BPM. His BPM comes out at 14.9 which is 4th all-time for freshmen behind only Flagg, Zion, and AD (Boozer would finish above him too at this pace). However, I think his statistical projection would be considerably worse given his awful 0.57 A/TO ratio, which is one of the strongest statistical indicators of future success.


And I just want to note that Beasley didn't succeed in the NBA not because he lacked talent or athleticism. His mentality was the main reason for him not reaching his ceiling.

I believe everyone here would be in agreement that college BPM says nothing about mentality. BPM as the single measure of a true freshman is literally the single best public predictor of NBA success.

(BPM really shouldn't be 'different' things across sites. BPM 2.0 has unfortunately made this a reality...)


That's a cool fact if true. Can you cite a study that showed this?
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Re: Cameron Boozer 

Post#257 » by CptCrunch » Thu Jan 1, 2026 1:08 pm

EvanZ wrote:
CptCrunch wrote:
greenOakX wrote:Beasley is in the barttorvik database which uses it's own version of BPM. His BPM comes out at 14.9 which is 4th all-time for freshmen behind only Flagg, Zion, and AD (Boozer would finish above him too at this pace). However, I think his statistical projection would be considerably worse given his awful 0.57 A/TO ratio, which is one of the strongest statistical indicators of future success.


And I just want to note that Beasley didn't succeed in the NBA not because he lacked talent or athleticism. His mentality was the main reason for him not reaching his ceiling.

I believe everyone here would be in agreement that college BPM says nothing about mentality. BPM as the single measure of a true freshman is literally the single best public predictor of NBA success.

(BPM really shouldn't be 'different' things across sites. BPM 2.0 has unfortunately made this a reality...)


That's a cool fact if true. Can you cite a study that showed this?


It's called opening one's eyes, this is 100% NBA player hit rate. 17/19 starter rate, around 50% rookie max contract. If you pull a better list out of some better numerical list, let the NBA front offices know.

List of 19 high-major college freshman with >10 Bart Trovik BPM post 2011. I would use the better bbref list but I don't have a subscription.

Rank Player Team BPM
1 Zion Williamson Duke 18.7
2 Anthony Davis Kentucky 16.6
3 Karl-Anthony Towns Kentucky 13.0
4 Evan Mobley USC 12.6
5 Nerlens Noel Kentucky 11.1
6 Lonzo Ball UCLA 11.0
7 Brandon Miller Alabama 11.0
8 Onyeka Okongwu USC 10.9
9 Cody Zeller Indiana 10.9
10 Reed Sheppard Kentucky 10.9
11 D'Angelo Russell Ohio St. 10.8
12 Jaren Jackson Jr. Michigan St. 10.6
13 Joel Embiid Kansas 10.6
14 Wendell Carter Jr. Duke 10.4
15 Sam Dekker Wisconsin 10.3
16 Donovan Clingan Connecticut 10.2
17 Trae Young Oklahoma 10.1
18 Jabari Smith Auburn 10.1
19 Marcus Smart Oklahoma St. 10.0
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Re: Cameron Boozer 

Post#258 » by ezhkw8u69e » Thu Jan 1, 2026 3:33 pm

CptCrunch wrote:
EvanZ wrote:
CptCrunch wrote:
And I just want to note that Beasley didn't succeed in the NBA not because he lacked talent or athleticism. His mentality was the main reason for him not reaching his ceiling.

I believe everyone here would be in agreement that college BPM says nothing about mentality. BPM as the single measure of a true freshman is literally the single best public predictor of NBA success.

(BPM really shouldn't be 'different' things across sites. BPM 2.0 has unfortunately made this a reality...)


That's a cool fact if true. Can you cite a study that showed this?


It's called opening one's eyes, this is 100% NBA player hit rate. 17/19 starter rate, around 50% rookie max contract. If you pull a better list out of some better numerical list, let the NBA front offices know.

List of 19 high-major college freshman with >10 Bart Trovik BPM post 2011. I would use the better bbref list but I don't have a subscription.

Rank Player Team BPM
1 Zion Williamson Duke 18.7
2 Anthony Davis Kentucky 16.6
3 Karl-Anthony Towns Kentucky 13.0
4 Evan Mobley USC 12.6
5 Nerlens Noel Kentucky 11.1
6 Lonzo Ball UCLA 11.0
7 Brandon Miller Alabama 11.0
8 Onyeka Okongwu USC 10.9
9 Cody Zeller Indiana 10.9
10 Reed Sheppard Kentucky 10.9
11 D'Angelo Russell Ohio St. 10.8
12 Jaren Jackson Jr. Michigan St. 10.6
13 Joel Embiid Kansas 10.6
14 Wendell Carter Jr. Duke 10.4
15 Sam Dekker Wisconsin 10.3
16 Donovan Clingan Connecticut 10.2
17 Trae Young Oklahoma 10.1
18 Jabari Smith Auburn 10.1
19 Marcus Smart Oklahoma St. 10.0


So now it's high major true Freshmen with BPM > 10 since 2011, because you can't count Michael Beasley. Got it. Any other caveats? Also where is Marvin Bagley? His BPM was 10.8 according to basketball-reference. Why isn't Cooper on top of that list?
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Re: Cameron Boozer 

Post#259 » by CptCrunch » Thu Jan 1, 2026 4:45 pm

EvanZ wrote:
CptCrunch wrote:
EvanZ wrote:
That's a cool fact if true. Can you cite a study that showed this?


It's called opening one's eyes, this is 100% NBA player hit rate. 17/19 starter rate, around 50% rookie max contract. If you pull a better list out of some better numerical list, let the NBA front offices know.

List of 19 high-major college freshman with >10 Bart Trovik BPM post 2011. I would use the better bbref list but I don't have a subscription.

Rank Player Team BPM
1 Zion Williamson Duke 18.7
2 Anthony Davis Kentucky 16.6
3 Karl-Anthony Towns Kentucky 13.0
4 Evan Mobley USC 12.6
5 Nerlens Noel Kentucky 11.1
6 Lonzo Ball UCLA 11.0
7 Brandon Miller Alabama 11.0
8 Onyeka Okongwu USC 10.9
9 Cody Zeller Indiana 10.9
10 Reed Sheppard Kentucky 10.9
11 D'Angelo Russell Ohio St. 10.8
12 Jaren Jackson Jr. Michigan St. 10.6
13 Joel Embiid Kansas 10.6
14 Wendell Carter Jr. Duke 10.4
15 Sam Dekker Wisconsin 10.3
16 Donovan Clingan Connecticut 10.2
17 Trae Young Oklahoma 10.1
18 Jabari Smith Auburn 10.1
19 Marcus Smart Oklahoma St. 10.0


So now it's high major true Freshmen with BPM > 10 since 2011, because you can't count Michael Beasley. Got it. Any other caveats? Also where is Marvin Bagley? His BPM was 10.8 according to basketball-reference. Why isn't Cooper on top of that list?


Why don't you go figure out why Cooper isn't in Bart's list. Rest of your question are either in bad faith or shows lack of quantitative background.
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Re: Cameron Boozer 

Post#260 » by vincecarter4pres » Thu Jan 1, 2026 5:15 pm

Boozer reminds me of fringe prime Horford stylistically and athletically, but without the defense. Like when Horford’s athleticism had faded but was still average at worst for the 4/5, before he became old man Horford.

But that Horford without his defensive instincts and foot speed is just an OK player that you mask on defense.

Don’t believe Boozer will be a liability or sieve, and can succeed as a team defender in the right lineups, but it’s obviously not going to be his forte.

Shades of LMA and even some Millsap as well, but he doesn’t have the size and length of the former, nor defensive ability; and isn’t as short, nor the bull Millsap was.

Idk, maybe like a rich man’s Carl Landry? Landry was a poor passer though, or at least unwilling.Or some Luis Scola?

I kinda see the Kevin Love thing too. Not the passing, but the parallel of the big on paper numbers and some obvious impact, but kinda weird tweener between the 4/5 even with the 3 point shooting ability and the obvious defensive and athletic limitations, mixed with the mainly old school style. He has better length and frame though. But again, more so the other parallels instead of the direct stylistic comparison.
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