Caleb Wilson

[One_and_Done]

KG meets Giannis or Kawhi.

If that was his projection he'd be going #1.

To be fair, they were talking about ultimate ceiling and not projection. Nobody projects to be a first-ballot HoF and perennial MVP candidate.

KG crossed with Giannis/Kawhi is likely the GOAT, it seems like a pretty ridiculous comp for a guy going 4th or 5th, even with the caveat that it's their ceiling.

Riddle me this… what pick did KG go?

Curry?


Giannis?


Kawhi?


How about Jordan?


Kobe Bryant?


How about Wade?


Jokic?


Jason Kidd and Steve Nash?

1) Scouting has generally gotten better over time.
2) A KG/Kawhi hybrid projects out higher than any of those guys ever got to.
3) Some of the guys above fell because of factors like being HS players in an era with little HS scouting, or playing overseas, or the game changing to favour them more, or having the most unprecedented improvement ever seen, or intentionally tanking their draft stock, etc. Wilson plays in a high profile college team and has been scouted to death. Nobody thinks he could be a GOAT candidate.

[Upperclass]

He reminds me of college Rasheed Wallace.. more affable personality but doesnt seem super keen to exponentially polish and improve his game. May not matter though since he is already extremely talented in every area of basketball

[Benjammin]

^I can see that comparison. Sheed was thicker and longer. Wilson probably has a better motor.

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[Jcool0]

Most likely a future Bull

Read on Twitter

[tmorgan]

Look, I actually REALLY like Caleb Wilson, but watching him bury a bunch of uncontested slow release shots where he gets 4 inches off the ground doesn’t do a whole lot for me. That can work if you have Wemby’s release point, but he’s gonna have a hand in his face for all those shots in the league.

That said, he’s a great athlete with a great motor, good passing instincts and good touch. He’s 3rd on my board and I think anyone taking Boozer over this guy is a doofus. It’s not Wilson’s fault there are two truly excellent potential lead ball handling prospects ahead of him — one with excellent size plus athleticism and another with a polished pro game oozing scoring potential.

[tmorgan]

^I can see that comparison. Sheed was thicker and longer. Wilson probably has a better motor.

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I don’t think Sheed was any thicker or stronger at this stage of development. Longer maybe, can’t say for sure.

[Prospect Dong]

https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1346857&hilit=bagley&start=1000

...so, here's the back end of 50+ pages of pre-draft discussion of Bagley, FWIW. TLDR: great motor, elite athlete, elite rebounder, nice ball handling, reasonable odds of developing an outside shot, the next Shawn Kemp.... The concerns were wingspan and shot creation/offensive upside - maybe he tops out as a bigger Kenneth Faried.

As a Griz fan, this does worry me quite a bit when thinking about Wilson. The wingspan differential helps quite a bit. The ft% is probably a nicer indicator of the ability to develop an outside shot, but you probably can't rely on that happening.

Maybe Bagley was still the right pick knowing what we did at the time - at say #4 where he was mostly mocked, if not at #2 where he actually went. Sometimes you just get unlucky and a great prospect doesn't translate. But the comparison does seem to suggest a low floor for Wilson if he doesn't develop as a modern PF. I guess if the wingspan (and steals) make him a plus defender a couple of years in, that makes a big difference to the bear case - he's probably a starter just based on the rebounding, D, and hops.

[eminence]

Did my Chris Gatling - Marvin Bagley comp wind up being a little generous?

[Prospect Dong]

Did my Chris Gatling - Marvin Bagley comp wind up being a little generous?

[King Ken]

His weight and defensive quirks give me serious pause and why I would take Mikel Brown Jr over him if I was Chicago. That said, his makeup, talent, and ability is crazy good. I would put his ass in the weight room and in the film room

[JMAC3]

https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1346857&hilit=bagley&start=1000

...so, here's the back end of 50+ pages of pre-draft discussion of Bagley, FWIW. TLDR: great motor, elite athlete, elite rebounder, nice ball handling, reasonable odds of developing an outside shot, the next Shawn Kemp.... The concerns were wingspan and shot creation/offensive upside - maybe he tops out as a bigger Kenneth Faried.

As a Griz fan, this does worry me quite a bit when thinking about Wilson. The wingspan differential helps quite a bit. The ft% is probably a nicer indicator of the ability to develop an outside shot, but you probably can't rely on that happening.

Maybe Bagley was still the right pick knowing what we did at the time - at say #4 where he was mostly mocked, if not at #2 where he actually went. Sometimes you just get unlucky and a great prospect doesn't translate. But the comparison does seem to suggest a low floor for Wilson if he doesn't develop as a modern PF. I guess if the wingspan (and steals) make him a plus defender a couple of years in, that makes a big difference to the bear case - he's probably a starter just based on the rebounding, D, and hops.

Caleb Wilson wingspan isn't really all that good, basically +3- which is the same as Bagley. I think there are a lot of similarities with both playstyles and size, Wilson has better steals +blocks but Bagley had better 3pt shooting sample + % which you would think would have indicated a smoother move to the PF position but he still ended up an energy big backup 5- which feels like Wilson could be destined for in certain runouts. I also don't really believe in the ball handling for Wilson which again I think could limit his upside at the 4.

If you are comparing him to someone like Jaren Jackson, he has 25 lbs less and wingspan is 5 inches shorter.
Jabari Smith is another guy that had 30 lbs and 2 more inches of wingspan.
I also think is a good bit smaller than Mobley with way worse defense.

I personally feel like betting on Acuff is the better move at this point, I know he is a 3 level scorer with real playmaking skills. The defense could be worrisome but if he can be an elite scorer the lack of defense won't be that big of a deal as long as rest of the team is somewhat decent ala Jamal Murray, Brunson, Ja, Garland, Mitchell, Kyrie etc etc...

I get more concerned about guards with lack of size if they are also concerns offensively or shooting the ball because then you can have liability on both ends and you aren't really bringing anything.

[Prospect Dong]

https://forums.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?f=3&t=1346857&hilit=bagley&start=1000

...so, here's the back end of 50+ pages of pre-draft discussion of Bagley, FWIW. TLDR: great motor, elite athlete, elite rebounder, nice ball handling, reasonable odds of developing an outside shot, the next Shawn Kemp.... The concerns were wingspan and shot creation/offensive upside - maybe he tops out as a bigger Kenneth Faried.

As a Griz fan, this does worry me quite a bit when thinking about Wilson. The wingspan differential helps quite a bit. The ft% is probably a nicer indicator of the ability to develop an outside shot, but you probably can't rely on that happening.

Maybe Bagley was still the right pick knowing what we did at the time - at say #4 where he was mostly mocked, if not at #2 where he actually went. Sometimes you just get unlucky and a great prospect doesn't translate. But the comparison does seem to suggest a low floor for Wilson if he doesn't develop as a modern PF. I guess if the wingspan (and steals) make him a plus defender a couple of years in, that makes a big difference to the bear case - he's probably a starter just based on the rebounding, D, and hops.

Caleb Wilson wingspan isn't really all that good, basically +3- which is the same as Bagley. I think there are a lot of similarities with both playstyles and size, Wilson has better steals +blocks but Bagley had better 3pt shooting sample + % which you would think would have indicated a smoother move to the PF position but he still ended up an energy big backup 5- which feels like Wilson could be destined for in certain runouts. I also don't really believe in the ball handling for Wilson which again I think could limit his upside at the 4.

If you are comparing him to someone like Jaren Jackson, he has 25 lbs less and wingspan is 5 inches shorter.
Jabari Smith is another guy that had 30 lbs and 2 more inches of wingspan.
I also think is a good bit smaller than Mobley with way worse defense.

I personally feel like betting on Acuff is the better move at this point, I know he is a 3 level scorer with real playmaking skills. The defense could be worrisome but if he can be an elite scorer the lack of defense won't be that big of a deal as long as rest of the team is somewhat decent ala Jamal Murray, Brunson, Ja, Garland, Mitchell, Kyrie etc etc...

I get more concerned about guards with lack of size if they are also concerns offensively or shooting the ball because then you can have liability on both ends and you aren't really bringing anything.

My chatgpt search has Bagley with a similar wingspan, but significantly lower (3") standing reach. That would explain (some of the) disparity in block rate, too. I think those two, together, point to a meaningful difference in defensive potential, with the steals pointing to a difference in awareness/lateral mobility as well.

I think you make pretty reasonable points about the bear case for Wilson, but I think 'defensive hustle big' is a meaningful difference from 'hustle big', if that's his downside. The first guy probably cracks a playoff team's crunch time rotation, while the second doesn't. Either is a huge disappointment from a top five pick in a good draft though, obviously.

I also think you can't put too much weight on worst case scenario. I'm genuinely unsure whether Bagley was a good prospect who just realized his 5th percentile outcome, in which case you probably still draft his clone late in the top 5, or whether he was flawed at the time and few people saw it. I feel like it's probably a mix of both, which carries across to his comparison with Wilson. I think Bagley's a warning sign, but not a red flag, for Wilson.

[NO-KG-AI]

Kevin Garnett comparisons are always weird for guys that are clearly just much smaller in college than KG was in high school.

[King Ken]

Kevin Garnett comparisons are always weird for guys that are clearly just much smaller in college than KG was in high school.

Last time I strapped the KG comp to someone was a former Tar Heel, Brandan Wright. That might still be my worst eval of all time.

While Wilson size looks great in college. This is what I call the Brandan Wright effect. Wright was skinny and Horford was much bigger but both are still bigger PFs in college so the difference is minimal. Then I seen them both in the NBA and it looked like Wright was a small forward with no handles playing the 4 and Horford looked like a standard sized PF. I knew I **** up instantly.

Some of my biggest busts have been miscalculations. Bagley, Bamba, Thabeet, and of course, Wright. Big for college and big for the NBA or built for the NBA is massively different. Margins. It's all about margins. Wright eventually picked up weight but lost all his athletic traits he was known for so he was nothing close to KG by the time he was 235. If anything, he was a shell of his athleticism in college.

Wilson being 210 for me is scary. He's in that failzone for me. My greatest busts have been here and they didn't make it. That said, none of them had A+ makeup, work ethic, and no one produced like him. This **** is insane

https://tankathon.com/players/caleb-wilson

I am not against him but of all of the top 8 guys who have have ahead of everyone else in my opinion by a significant margin in terms of overall impact, him and Wagler have the highest bust margins of everyone. The rest are fairly safe. That said, both him and Wagler have the highest multi time MVP potential in this class. There is a lot to like but I've been burned by this type as the size issue is real.

[King Ken]

Wilson's superstar path
Must model his game after Jalen Johnson
Must gain about 10-12 good pounds plus maintain everything
Must play with a PG who can setup **** out the ass. Giddey is fine. Trae is fine. George is not. Ja is too drive and dish like, not a good fit. Brooklyn is not a good fit. Garland, I'm not sure. Maybe that could work.

Team must accept, his defense in year 1 will be ass but he has legit upside on that end.

His path is developing his all around game and obviously his range as he's a smaller big.

If these things don't happen, his bust rates overshadow his positive rates.

His path to superstardom is real but so is his bust metrics.

[Upperclass]

Some team is going to have to teach him how to play impactful basketball. He isnt so athletic that he can walk in and not be Stromile Swift or Brandan Wright. In the top 10 the only good spots for him imo are Memphis who wont take him and Brooklyn.

[Jcool0]

His weight and defensive quirks give me serious pause and why I would take Mikel Brown Jr over him if I was Chicago. That said, his makeup, talent, and ability is crazy good. I would put his ass in the weight room and in the film room

No one is taking Mikel Brown in the top 4. Be serious.

[CptCrunch]

Caleb is just a ball of putty.

Just athletic enough to be a good athletic.

Just productive enough to not be an energy big.

Otherwise, he is basically Bagley with worse shooting. Bagley developed in a bottom 10th percentile way. I can't even say Caleb won't because he is a high basketball IQ players like Boozer. He could literally become any NBA great PF, or end up as nothing as he is great at nothing at this point. His mental makeup and NBA development will determine his path. I don't sense too dumb/too mentally weak to develop vibes from Ayton

[King Ken]

His weight and defensive quirks give me serious pause and why I would take Mikel Brown Jr over him if I was Chicago. That said, his makeup, talent, and ability is crazy good. I would put his ass in the weight room and in the film room

No one is taking Mikel Brown in the top 4. Be serious.

Traits matter to teams and Brown is elite for his position. Add to the fact that the film from Team USA is special and teams aren't as likely to hold Louisville against him since the interviews and workouts have been elite

[King Ken]

Caleb is just a ball of putty.

Just athletic enough to be a good athletic.

Just productive enough to not be an energy big.

Otherwise, he is basically Bagley with worse shooting. Bagley developed in a bottom 10th percentile way. I can't even say Caleb won't because he is a high basketball IQ players like Boozer. He could literally become any NBA great PF, or end up as nothing as he is great at nothing at this point. His mental makeup and NBA development will determine his path. I don't sense too dumb/too mentally weak to develop vibes from Ayton

To some degree. He does have a lot of skill. He can rebound at an insane rate for his position, take it coast to coast. He is extremely rangy. He's just athletic as hell, but it's extremely functional. It's not just vertical like Tyus Thomas. He moves well laterally. It's the discipline. I would love to see him with OKC. They would have him being an all-star in two years.