Amen & Ausar Thompson - Potential 2022 NBA Draft Guys

[Big J]

They are literally already projected top 5. They've been top 5 the entire cycle.

Then why is Auser at 7 on KOC’s big board?

Givony has them top 5 the entire cycle. That's literally the only board that matters and you know it. And so what if he has Ausar 7? Is he going to "shoot" up to 5? Just take the L and move on bro. It was a weird point to be dying for.

When you get to the top 5-10 guys, leaping one spot is a huge deal. Don’t act like nobody cared when Masai took Scotty Barnes over Suggs who had been projected above him in every pre draft mock.

[EvanZ]

lol please stop, you said they'd shoot up the boards...that's not leaping one spot.

[JMAC3]

lol please stop, you said they'd shoot up the boards...that's not leaping one spot.

Wouldn't shock me if we hear several teams have Amen over Scoot on their big board. Would that classify as a leap up the board?

How different are Jalen Williams and Ausar Thompson as players heading into the league?

[EvanZ]

lol please stop, you said they'd shoot up the boards...that's not leaping one spot.

Wouldn't shock me if we hear several teams have Amen over Scoot on their big board. Would that classify as a leap up the board?

No

[Big J]

lol please stop, you said they'd shoot up the boards...that's not leaping one spot.

Wouldn't shock me if we hear several teams have Amen over Scoot on their big board. Would that classify as a leap up the board?

No

I could see them leapfrogging other dudes. There I fixed it.

[EvanZ]

It's not "other dudes". It's literally 2 dudes. lol

[mattao313]

It's really hard not to see Josh Jackson with these guys. I really liked him but he never improved his shot and was a low iq player.

How confident are you guys in either of them improving their shooting?

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[Big J]

It's really hard not to see Josh Jackson with these guys. I really liked him but he never improved his shot and was a low iq player.

How confident are you guys in either of them improving their shooting?

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Josh Jackson would have been great if he didn’t have a piss poor attitude and off the court issues. These twins have Kobe level work ethics.

[mattao313]

It's really hard not to see Josh Jackson with these guys. I really liked him but he never improved his shot and was a low iq player.

How confident are you guys in either of them improving their shooting?

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Josh Jackson would have been great if he didn’t have a piss poor attitude and off the court issues. These twins have Kobe level work ethics.

Yet they are horrible shooters

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[Hal14]

It's really hard not to see Josh Jackson with these guys. I really liked him but he never improved his shot and was a low iq player.

How confident are you guys in either of them improving their shooting?

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Josh Jackson would have been great if he didn’t have a piss poor attitude and off the court issues. These twins have Kobe level work ethics.

Yet they are horrible shooters

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They literally just turned 20. Most dudes who just turned 20 aren't very good shooters - especially dudes who are 6'7" and among the best athletes we've seen in the past decade.

They are improving quite a bit as shooters, too. Both improved their shooting from last season to this season. And Ausar went from shooting 30% from 3 in the regular season this year to 38.5% from 3 in the playoffs. Amen went from 25% in the reg season to 30% in the playoffs.

[Big J]

They really won't need to rely on 3's their first few years anyway. They'll be able to Ja Morant their way to 25 points per game just by attacking the hole.

[The-Power]

if we're just gonna boil everything to shooting what are we even doing here? just rank players based on their 3pt% and be done with it.

It's not that the best shooters are the best prospects; but there's essentially a baseline in today's NBA for perimeter players (both on and off the ball) and if there's a risk that you'll end up below that, it has huge consequences for how to project your impact and role.

So it does make a lot of sense to talk about, for instance, whether teams will be able to go under screens regarding a ball-handling prospects, or whether teams will be to play 5 on 4 on defense as they gladly leave the player open in the corner regarding a wing prospect.

And those are the extreme cases. If the threat of you shooting does not concern defenses – which happens in today's hyper-efficient NBA even when you are not a terrible but just an okay-ish shooter – it makes the path to high-level impact so much tougher and narrower.

[Hal14]

if we're just gonna boil everything to shooting what are we even doing here? just rank players based on their 3pt% and be done with it.

It's not that the best shooters are the best prospects; but there's essentially a baseline in today's NBA for perimeter players (both on and off the ball) and if there's a risk that you'll end up below that, it has huge consequences for how to project your impact and role.

So it does make a lot of sense to talk about, for instance, whether teams will be able to go under screens regarding a ball-handling prospects, or whether teams will be to play 5 on 4 on defense as they gladly leave the player open in the corner regarding a wing prospect.

And those are the extreme cases. If the threat of you shooting does not concern defenses – which happens in today's hyper-efficient NBA even when you are not a terrible but just an okay-ish shooter – it makes the path to high-level impact so much tougher and narrower.

We get that. But 2 things:

1) Average 3 pt % in the NBA this season is 36%. The average 3 pt % among the prospects in this year's draft class is 31%. Does that mean this is a terrible draft class? No. It's just the reality that dudes who are only 18-20 years old aren't great shooters yet. Dudes typically don't develop into really good shooters until age 22 or 23 (if not older) which is obviously older than the Thompson twins and older than most of the dudes who will get drafted this june. So part of it is having that perspective and being realistic with what type of shooter someone is likely to be when they're barely 20 yrs old.

2) When you have the combination of size (6'7") + insane athleticism + really good handle that the twins have, you're able to blow by your man and get to the rim.

Amen has a better handle, more burst off the dribble and more passing creativity/vision - whereas Ausar is the better shooter. So even if defenses sag off Amen, it's still gonna be nearly impossible to stay in front of him defensively - and if you bring help to contain his drive, he's gonna hit the open man for an easy basket. Ausar is also very hard to stay in front of defensively - while also getting much better as a shooter.

Not to mention they're both elite defenders and their explosiveness in the open floor, high IQ and court vision to make hit ahead passes, allows for lots of easy transition baskets. Amen is also a really good cutter, Amen is a really good lob passer.

Bottom line, they both do so many other things well, that they're projected to be top 5 or 6 picks, even with the shooting concerns.

Giddey couldn't shoot as a prospect and he went #6. And he couldn't defend and didn't have the athleticism of these guys either. Scottie Barnes couldn't shoot as a prospect and he went #4, then won ROY.

I highly encourage everyone to check out these vids if you haven't already - so we can all have the full picture of them (pros and cons).

Watch on YouTube

Watch on YouTube

[babyjax13]

It's really hard not to see Josh Jackson with these guys. I really liked him but he never improved his shot and was a low iq player.

How confident are you guys in either of them improving their shooting?

Sent from my SM-A528B using RealGM mobile app

Josh Jackson would have been great if he didn’t have a piss poor attitude and off the court issues. These twins have Kobe level work ethics.

Yet they are horrible shooters

Sent from my SM-A528B using RealGM mobile app

Ausar looks like he is improving to me. Amen's jumper still looks completely broken.

[The-Power]

We get that. But 2 things:

1) Average 3 pt % in the NBA this season is 36%. The average 3 pt % among the prospects in this year's draft class is 31%. Does that mean this is a terrible draft class? No. It's just the reality that dudes who are only 18-20 years old aren't great shooters yet. Dudes typically don't develop into really good shooters until age 22 or 23 (if not older) which is obviously older than the Thompson twins and older than most of the dudes who will get drafted this june. So part of it is having that perspective and being realistic with what type of shooter someone is likely to be when they're barely 20 yrs old.

It's not about raw percentages. It's about projection. When I question the shooting ability for some players, efficiency is only part of the equation. It's also about shooting volume, the type of shots you take, FT%, shooting mechanics etc. For instance, I don't think Keyonte George is going to be a below average shooter because he only shot 34% on 3s with Baylor – because there are too many other indicators in play that instill more confidence.

Also, the idea that players typically don't develop into really good shooters until they are 22 or 23 (or even older) is obviously incorrect. There are plenty of elite shooters in the NBA who were very good if not already elite shooters at that age. So I'm not sure where you get that from. And again: being a good shooter is not only about raw percentages. I don't think anyone would argue that Lillard and Harden are feared for their shooting – it bends defenses constantly – and yet their overall percentages aren't elite. Shot volume and type of shots matter a great deal. 36% on occasional wide open corner 3s are very different from 36% on tightly contested pull up and step-back 3s on high volume.

The way you make it sound implies either that we should just expect anyone to develop into a shooter over time or that we just cannot know until the players are much older. And I fundamentally disagree with that notion. You can easily see when someone is likely to be a good shooter early on, and it's incredibly rare for poor or even mediocre shooters to turn into actual shooting threats that NBA teams are concerned about.

2) When you have the combination of size (6'7") + insane athleticism + really good handle that the twins have, you're able to blow by your man and get to the rim - even if the defense sags off you - we've seen it time and time again this season and last season from the twins. Add in their insane passing ability (so that once they drive into the lane and the help defense comes, they can find the open man for an open look) and you have a quality offensive weapon.

You have seen this from the twins in a HS setting. The NBA is just different and if you think what they do in their league can just be assumed to work in the NBA, I fear there's just not much for us to talk about. NBA teams just have completely different levels of athleticism, length, strength, IQ and defensive schemes at their disposal. The NBA can look easy for scorers once you crack the nut but not many players can do that consistently – especially in the playoffs – and therefore need someone else to crack that nut for them. You can't just expect poor shooters to be able to penetrate non-stop and finish efficiently in the NBA just because they are quick. And very few of those players will even be given the opportunity to try it out because most NBA teams have elite talent, and most draft picks – even high ones – will eventually have to find ways to impact the game without having the ball in their hands a ton.

Also, I have seen the twins play and they couldn't even consistently penetrate and finish efficiently against half-court defenses in their league. When teams could force them into half-court offense and sagged off them, it wasn't exactly pretty a lot of the time. Now multiply this effect by a lot when you project it to the NBA (for the reasons I mentioned above) and I just don't think your confidence is warranted at all. Their shooting limitations, and the issues that causes in the half-court, are very legitimate concerns and I won't just work with the most optimistic outlook as you do because I realize how few prospects actually turn into offensive weapons in the NBA.

[Big J]

Elite athletes are usually better in the NBA than they were at lower levels. If teams have to constantly send at them and these kids know how to pass they are either getting to the hoop, getting fouled, or throwing a lob dunk to their teammates. Do you guys realize how many extra points per game they are getting just from the take foul rule alone? It’s at least 5.

[The-Power]

Elite athletes are usually better in the NBA than they were at lower levels. If teams have to constantly send at them and these kids know how to pass they are either getting to the hoop, getting fouled, or throwing a lob dunk to their teammates. Do you guys realize how many extra points per game they are getting just from the take foul rule alone? It’s at least 5.

None of that is true.

[Hal14]

It's not about raw percentages. It's about projection. When I question the shooting ability for some players, efficiency is only part of the equation. It's also about shooting volume,

Ausar's volume is good (4.3 3PA / game on the season, which jumped to 7.8 3PA / game in the playoffs). Amen's is lower (2.8 3PA / game on the season, which jumped to 4 3PA / game in the playoffs) but he's also a PG rather than a wing - PG's are typically looking to distribute more and shoot 3's less.

That's why bringing up Keyonte George in this discussion is kind of silly - of course he's got higher shooting volume - he's an undersized guard who doesn't have much burst off the dribble or vertical pop so he is an inefficient shot chucker. Completely different player than the twins.

You can't just expect poor shooters to be able to penetrate non-stop and finish efficiently in the NBA just because they are quick.

They're not just quick. If you think that all the twins have is quickness, you might want to watch them some more. Highly recommend watching their scouting report vids by the Box and One.

It's the combination of size at 6'7" + handles + burst/athleticism (they'll both be in the top 10 in the league in terms of burst/athleticism from day 1 their rookie year. The sprinting and shuttle times Amen has posted are some of the best we've seen in the past 20 years) + change of speed, change of direction, craft and aggressiveness that allows them (especially Amen) to be a walking paint touch.

That combination of size (6'7" or taller) + handles/craft + athleticism/burst + aggressiveness + vision/passing is VERY rare. We're talking about only guys like Penny Hardaway, Grant Hill, LeBron, maybe Ben Simmons. I guess KD is in there too but KD is not fair to include since his shooting is on a level that we know the twins will never reach).

Their shooting limitations, and the issues that causes in the half-court, are very legitimate concerns and I won't just work with the most optimistic outlook as you do because I realize how few prospects actually turn into offensive weapons in the NBA.

Giddey, Scottie Barnes and Dyson Daniels couldn't shoot either as a prospect. Giddey went 6th overall, has certainly been a top 5 or 6 player from his draft class. Barnes went 4th overall and won ROY, Daniels was 8th pick and has a bright future ahead of him, Neither could D'Aaron Fox and he's a borderline all-star and franchise cornerstone for the 3 seed in the west.

The twins are more athletic/explosive than those guys, have better handles and are much taller, better defenders than Fox..

I have seen the twins play and they couldn't even consistently penetrate and finish efficiently against half-court defenses in their league.

They also have horrible spacing in OTE, yet the twins are still able to be a walking paint touch.

And I think you're really underestimating the talent and athleticism in OTE. I was watching the Belmont vs Drake game the other night. The OTE finals had 10x more athleticism than that game. The team the twins faced in the OTE finals had just as much (if not more) athleticism than a lot of the kids on Wisconsin and Ohio State. OTE has a handful of kids (other than the twins) who are eligible for the 2023 draft, they have multiple kids who are projected 1st round picks in 2024, and a good chunk of players who hold or will soon hold high major D1 offers.

[Big J]

People are underestimating OTE. The games are hella fast paced. Zach Edey would get run off the court in that league.

[eminence]

Pace is not a particularly good indicator of anything other than pace.

I'm unsure how to judge the Thompsons based on the league quality, but the league quality was not good.