BostonCouchGM wrote:crows2 wrote:It's as deep as any other recent draft. On average all drafts will have around the same level of depth (with a slight increase incrementally as professionalism increases and the game explodes internationally). It's the lack of superstar level prospect at the top that stands out. Pretty much every recent draft has had a clear top 3. The most recent draft included a generational talent in that top 3, which made the draft stand out.
The 2024 draft doesn't yet have any prospect that stands out as a top 3 level guy. At this stage last year Wemby and Scoot had already established themselves as top 3 guys, whilst Miller needed the college season to do that. It's likely that at least one or two guys will get to that level during the next season, but we have no idea who they'll be yet as no one really stands out. I'm not convinced we'll get three guys on that level, but we'll see.
First of all, what makes a prospect a "superstar level prospect"? If it's being considered one of the top guys then does that make Jabari Smith, Mobley, Ingram, Green and Lonzo superstar level prospects? As far as guys establishing themselves as top guys I think Sarr, Almansa and Ajinca just did that. So literally, "at this stage" we have three elite superstar level guys (if you consider Mobley, Ingram, Lonzo and Green superstar level prospects) at the top of the 2024 draft. You might not see that yet. Scouts and gurus might not. But it happened. As we sit right now, those are the top 3 guys, in no particular order. The narrative that there aren't elite talents at the top of the 2024 class died with the conclusion of the U19 Fiba 2023 tournament. Sarr is the same caliber of prospect as Mobley. He's like his twin in almost every way. Almansa might even be better than him. And Ajinca is a legit 6'8" athlete that can shoot the lights out and defend. He's every bit the prospect 18 y/o Tatum and Ingram were. The only question now is how many high school and other international prospects join them in the elite category.
What made those guys top 3 level prospects? For Smith, Mobley and Ingram - starring in college as freshmen, just as Miller did this year. As I said, it's likely that 1 or 2 players from this class will have a similar impact in college or the G-League and elevate themselves to that level, but at this stage it's almost impossible to tell who that will be.
As for the guys in the U19 World Cup, I'm very bullish on Almansa and was confused even before the tournament as to why he hasn't been mocked higher. He's been the clear standout player at his age group for a number of years now. Whether or not he has the versatility and overall game to star in the NBA is obviously the debate. I certainly don't begrudge you for rating him that highly, and it'll be fascinating to see how he compares to Buzelis and Holland in the G-League. I wouldn't be surprised if he outplays them.
Ajinca looked great in the tournament. I'm not convinced about him being 6'8, but he should certainly be rated higher than many American freshman who are currently mocked ahead of him. I don't see Sarr as a top 3 guy - compare his impact to Chet (and of course Wemby) at the previous U19 WC and I don't think he matches up. Good prospect though, and I don't see how he's any worse than Bradshaw - in fact I think Sarr is a better player than him right now. The NBL is a very tough league for rookies, it'll be interesting to see how he fares.
