Kon Knueppel

[greg4012]

If you expand the sample size to the entire college season, Kon's numbers when he played without Flagg are still great.

But that was all just minutes during a game when Flagg was active and playing--hence no real game planning with Kon as focal point. Totally different thing. Akin to 6th man getting put in starting lineup and seeing his efficiency and impact diminish when facing starters.

Flagg isn't going to play every single minute, and college teams have more than enough resources at their disposal to prepare for lineups that don't involve him. Kon doesn't morph into an entirely different player either.

Kon should be the 2nd player on the scouting report after Flagg, he was the 2nd scoring option after all. This isn't anything like a 6th man being pushed into a bigger role. You should already be prepared to play against Kon, and he shouldn't be surprising you.

It’s actually just like that. What do you think college reg season scouting is like? lol

[2weekswithpay]

But that was all just minutes during a game when Flagg was active and playing--hence no real game planning with Kon as focal point. Totally different thing. Akin to 6th man getting put in starting lineup and seeing his efficiency and impact diminish when facing starters.

Flagg isn't going to play every single minute, and college teams have more than enough resources at their disposal to prepare for lineups that don't involve him. Kon doesn't morph into an entirely different player either.

Kon should be the 2nd player on the scouting report after Flagg, he was the 2nd scoring option after all. This isn't anything like a 6th man being pushed into a bigger role. You should already be prepared to play against Kon, and he shouldn't be surprising you.

It’s actually just like that. What do you think college reg season scouting is like? lol

I don't think it's great, and I don't believe skill level in college basketball is that high, but I'm not buying the Kon caught them by surprise stuff. Kon is a good college player, and I think Kon playing well in a bigger role had more to do with him being good instead of the opponents being caught with their pants down.

[greg4012]

Flagg isn't going to play every single minute, and college teams have more than enough resources at their disposal to prepare for lineups that don't involve him. Kon doesn't morph into an entirely different player either.

Kon should be the 2nd player on the scouting report after Flagg, he was the 2nd scoring option after all. This isn't anything like a 6th man being pushed into a bigger role. You should already be prepared to play against Kon, and he shouldn't be surprising you.

It’s actually just like that. What do you think college reg season scouting is like? lol

I don't think it's great, and I don't believe skill level in college basketball is that high, but I'm not buying the Kon caught them by surprise stuff. Kon is a good college player, and I think Kon playing well in a bigger role had more to do with him being good instead of the opponents being caught with their pants down.

A lot of in between on the extremes you want to latch onto. We’re talking about a top 10 NBA draft pick playing guard in college. I hope he can function in minutes without the best player in the nation while surrounded by multiple other nba players while playing against non-NBA players

[2weekswithpay]

It’s actually just like that. What do you think college reg season scouting is like? lol

I don't think it's great, and I don't believe skill level in college basketball is that high, but I'm not buying the Kon caught them by surprise stuff. Kon is a good college player, and I think Kon playing well in a bigger role had more to do with him being good instead of the opponents being caught with their pants down.

A lot of in between on the extremes you want to latch onto. We’re talking about a top 10 NBA draft pick playing guard in college. I hope he can function in minutes without the best player in the nation while surrounded by multiple other nba players while playing against non-NBA players

I don't think I'm latching on to anything. I just don't see the need to find some fault in everything he does. He plays well, and it's he plays on a stacked team with the best player in college basketball. He plays well without Flagg, and it's the other team was unprepared.

[greg4012]

I don't think it's great, and I don't believe skill level in college basketball is that high, but I'm not buying the Kon caught them by surprise stuff. Kon is a good college player, and I think Kon playing well in a bigger role had more to do with him being good instead of the opponents being caught with their pants down.

A lot of in between on the extremes you want to latch onto. We’re talking about a top 10 NBA draft pick playing guard in college. I hope he can function in minutes without the best player in the nation while surrounded by multiple other nba players while playing against non-NBA players

I don't think I'm latching on to anything. I just don't see the need to find some fault in everything he does. He plays well, and it's he plays on a stacked team with the best player in college basketball. He plays well without Flagg, and it's the other team was unprepared.

I do find the need for increased scrutiny for a player in talks to be selected 3rd in NBA draft. I get valuing Kon for his high floor. In pursuit of upside, I struggle to see the case for scaling beyond good starter/role player with defensive limitations.

[CPops57]

Not hard to reach for more turnovers than assists to not be a great indicator for an expanded onball role in nba

For reference, I don't have the play-by-play and know exactly how many of the assists or turnovers were done with Flagg on the court, but he had a total of 14 assists to 8 turnovers in that tournament. To me, that is pretty good college production for a non point guard in the circumstances he was in. And let's remember the most important part of the equation: he did enough to help them win.

when paired with league worst positional athleticism and bad pull up 3 pt shooting. But OK

I think we all agree that Kneuppel's athleticism will be in the lower tier of the NBA. As far as his creation ability goes, I don't expect him to consistently beat many guys with a quick first step and explode over the opposing team.

But he does have some advantages.

* He's a good enough shooter that teams will have to aggressively closeout on him. That's a big advantage.

* His body frame is thick and heavy and he's very willing to mix it up physically and finish through contact. That's rare for a great shooter

* He's a high-iq player with a good feel for the game. Guys like that use crafty tricks to create space, like bumping the defender at the right time and getting them a bit off balance so they have space.

* He was running Duke's offense and most of what he was supposed to run were either outside shots or get to the rim. He's said in interviews he knows a pull-up jumper and a floater is a great shot for him and he said he's working on that. Is it an unreasonable aspiration for a great shooter who is self-aware and coachable to refine that aspect of his game? To me, that looks like one of the safer bets in this draft.

Anyway, beyond this 3 game sample size, another poster provided some interesting data about his overall season long production without Flagg.

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=2450188&start=140#p118675676

In lineups without Flagg (lineup B), Kon's AST% rose to 23.7%, got to the rim a bit more, and didn't have a big drop in efficiency.

Good numbers with Flagg (lineup A) and without (lineup B) against top 60 competition. His ability to get to the rim and finish didn't drop against good teams, and his AST% stayed at a respectable number.

Nobody can predict the future with certainty, but food for thought.

[greg4012]

Not hard to reach for more turnovers than assists to not be a great indicator for an expanded onball role in nba

For reference, I don't have the play-by-play and know exactly how many of the assists or turnovers were done with Flagg on the court, but he had a total of 14 assists to 8 turnovers in that tournament. To me, that is pretty good college production for a non point guard in the circumstances he was in. And let's remember the most important part of the equation: he did enough to help them win.

when paired with league worst positional athleticism and bad pull up 3 pt shooting. But OK

I think we all agree that Kneuppel's athleticism will be in the lower tier of the NBA. As far as his creation ability goes, I don't expect him to consistently beat many guys with a quick first step and explode over the opposing team.

But he does have some advantages.

* He's a good enough shooter that teams will have to aggressively closeout on him. That's a big advantage.

* His body frame is thick and heavy and he's very willing to mix it up physically and finish through contact. That's rare for a great shooter

* He's a high-iq player with a good feel for the game. Guys like that use crafty tricks to create space, like bumping the defender at the right time and getting them a bit off balance so they have space.

* He was running Duke's offense and most of what he was supposed to run were either outside shots or get to the rim. He's said in interviews he knows a pull-up jumper and a floater is a great shot for him and he said he's working on that. Is it an unreasonable aspiration for a great shooter who is self-aware and coachable to refine that aspect of his game? To me, that looks like one of the safer bets in this draft.

Anyway, beyond this 3 game sample size, another poster provided some interesting data about his overall season long production without Flagg.

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=2450188&start=140#p118675676

In lineups without Flagg (lineup B), Kon's AST% rose to 23.7%, got to the rim a bit more, and didn't have a big drop in efficiency.

Good numbers with Flagg (lineup A) and without (lineup B) against top 60 competition. His ability to get to the rim and finish didn't drop against good teams, and his AST% stayed at a respectable number.

Nobody can predict the future with certainty, but food for thought.

I've definitely already digested all of that and formed my opinions with all of that in mind. Which is why I've posted at least 5 times throughout this thread that Kon has one of the best floors in this draft class.

What i question and push back on is when people try to make a case for Kon having superstar upside or being a lead ballhandler. Which I see a crazy amount of i draft dialogue. To me, he's right around the 10-12 range as a prospect. Lotto talent. He has a safer floor than many I have above him, but less ceiling IMO

[CPops57]

Thank you for your thoughts. Just to clarify, I also don't see Kon as a superstar, however one defines what a superstar is.

But I do see a very realistic path for him to be a better creator than most expect, and these 2 things are realistic and marginal refinements of skills he already has in some measure.

1) His handle is already decent for non point guard, but tightening that up a bit will help him create and use space on offense without being able to rely on athleticism.

2) He has to demonstrate a midrange pull-up and floater game to give him an option besides just going hard to the rim, which will be harder for him to consistently achieve in the NBA than in college.

[greg4012]

Thank you for your thoughts. Just to clarify, I also don't see Kon as a superstar, however one defines what a superstar is.

But I do see a very realistic path for him to be a better creator than most expect, and these 2 things are realistic and marginal refinements of skills he already has in some measure.

1) His handle is already decent for non point guard, but tightening that up a bit will help him create and use space on offense without being able to rely on athleticism.

2) He has to demonstrate a midrange pull-up and floater game to give him an option besides just going hard to the rim, which will be harder for him to consistently achieve in the NBA than in college.

I think he has a below-average handle for a starting NBA SG personally. Point 2 will be crucial for him to be more than just a connective passer and 3pt shooter bc we know he ain't gonna be an athletic finisher at the rim. But he has craft.

[CPops57]

Maybe we can agree to disagree on his handle as I think it's positionally at least solid, particularly if you're viewing him playing a bit more as a 3 rather than a pure 2.

I'm not 100% sure about this, but I've read before that Kon played point guard before he hit a growth spurt in high school and I view him as having a solid handle for a non point guard. I think it might be easy to perceive his ball control as more limited than it actually is because he's not a particularly flashy dribbler and he plays with a lot of calm and patience so there's not as much herky-jerky movement. One area I'd like to see him work on is blurring his live dribbles into passes more: we saw a little bit of that with his lobs to Maluach but I think he's capable of more.

Anyway, I do acknowledge that he has flaws and is not a perfect prospect. But I think he has a little more upside potential than the typical consensus for an unathletic guy due to the unquantifiable "feel for the game" and many other factors.

[jezzerinho]

Kon's ceiling to me looks like mid-career Joe Ingles. Not a horrible player to be, by any means, but well shy of star material.

[CPops57]

Kon's ceiling to me looks like mid-career Joe Ingles. Not a horrible player to be, by any means, but well shy of star material.

That's a possibility, though I think that's a bit closer to a subpar case outcome than the optimistic case or even best case outcome.

A big difference is that Ingles came to the NBA at 27 years old. It's hard to make a comparison about the level of competition he went up against in Australia at 19 years old, but I'm pretty sure that it wasn't the level of competition at Duke at the time.

[Klomp]

I think a flaw of pre-draft analysis is that sometimes people can get too caught up in "superstar potential." While certainly there are times you need to shoot for that, for some of these perennial losing franchises, sometimes you just need to go for a single or double instead of going for a home run swing and risking a swing and a miss, to borrow from another sport.

Everyone gets so caught up in what a Top 5 pick should look like, but look back at the biggest draft busts of the past 25 years. Most of those busts came from upside swings, not safe picks that just didn't produce enough. This is also why teams in the middle and the back of the draft often stay there, because teams pass on many of the safest picks because they aren't flashy enough or provide the most upside.

Kon Knueppel feels like one of the safest top prospects we've had in a long time. He's just a solid ball player, and I think teams are going to regret passing on him. I think any team after the Mavericks needs to have a serious talk about considering him, but many of the franchise at that point in the draft simply keep repeating the same mistakes over and over again, which is why they keep selecting high up in the lottery.

[CPops57]

This is also why teams in the middle and the back of the draft often stay there, because teams pass on many of the safest picks because they aren't flashy enough or provide the most upside.

Just a funny thing to look at since we're at 1 game left in the NBA Finals.

Go back and look at TJ McConnell's draft class. He was undrafted and barely managed to make the team on the worst version of the Process Sixers. Nobody thought he'd amount to anything more than maybe float around as a deep reserve for a year or two before heading to South America or something.

But of the Top 10 players drafted in his draft, I believe that only 3 are still in the NBA. Meanwhile, TJ right now has a non-zero chance at pulling a literal Finals MVP out of his ass. TJ has had a more productive career than arguably 7 or 8 of the Top 10 players drafted in his year who were compared to various players like James Harden or Kawhi Leonard.

Yeah, sometimes you need to make a home-run bet, but there's also a lot of value in high-iq players who make winning plays and bust their butts off.

I don't think Kon is the right choice for every lottery team, but I think he'll be better than expected, just like he's been at every level of basketball he's entered.

[Klomp]

This is also why teams in the middle and the back of the draft often stay there, because teams pass on many of the safest picks because they aren't flashy enough or provide the most upside.

Just a funny thing to look at since we're at 1 game left in the NBA Finals.

Go back and look at TJ McConnell's draft class. He was undrafted and barely managed to make the team on the worst version of the Process Sixers. Nobody thought he'd amount to anything more than maybe float around as a deep reserve for a year or two before heading to South America or something.

But of the Top 10 players drafted in his draft, I believe that only 3 are still in the NBA. Meanwhile, TJ right now has a non-zero chance at pulling a literal Finals MVP out of his ass. TJ has had a more productive career than arguably 7 or 8 of the Top 10 players drafted in his year who were compared to various players like James Harden or Kawhi Leonard.

Yeah, sometimes you need to make a home-run bet, but there's also a lot of value in high-iq players who make winning plays and bust their butts off.

I don't think Kon is the right choice for every lottery team, but I think he'll be better than expected, just like he's been at every level of basketball he's entered.

Well said.

"Upside" is how teams draft Killian Hayes over Tyrese Haliburton
"Upside" is how teams draft Marvin Bagley III over Jaren Jackson Jr.
"Upside" is how teams draft Ndudi Ebi over Josh Howard
"Upside" is how teams draft Darko Milicic over Chris Bosh
"Upside" is how teams draft Michael Kidd-Gilchrist over Harrison Barnes

These aren't even the lowest-hanging fruits, I'm just looking positionally.

[tmorgan]

Hey, as long as we’re mentioning incompetent Pistons moves from the past…. and discussing Dukies…

NOT looking at upside is how you draft Luke Kennard over Donovan Mitchell.

[2weekswithpay]

A lot of in between on the extremes you want to latch onto. We’re talking about a top 10 NBA draft pick playing guard in college. I hope he can function in minutes without the best player in the nation while surrounded by multiple other nba players while playing against non-NBA players

I don't think I'm latching on to anything. I just don't see the need to find some fault in everything he does. He plays well, and it's he plays on a stacked team with the best player in college basketball. He plays well without Flagg, and it's the other team was unprepared.

I do find the need for increased scrutiny for a player in talks to be selected 3rd in NBA draft. I get valuing Kon for his high floor. In pursuit of upside, I struggle to see the case for scaling beyond good starter/role player with defensive limitations.

I'm all for increased scrutiny, but I don't consider claiming the opponents weren't prepared as scrutiny. It's conjecture, unless you're personally involved with these programs.

[Klomp]

Hey, as long as we’re mentioning incompetent Pistons moves from the past…. and discussing Dukies…

NOT looking at upside is how you draft Luke Kennard over Donovan Mitchell.

Kennard wasn't a BUST though. I put that into a different category, because he wasn't really a bad pick. He just wasn't the best pick possible. But within 2 years, Kennard was a 20 mpg role player on a Pistons team that was in the playoffs.

But to that point, I will say that it's important for franchises to look at their positioning within the league and their roster construction. There are absolutely times where going for the home run is the right move. Looking at those Pistons teams, that was an example of a team that could have used a bigger swing. A famous example in Minnesota was 2014. A lot of people wanted Minnesota to play it safe at 13 and take Gary Harris, but coach and executive Flip Saunders knew his team needed a jolt of upside and so he took a home run swing (his own words) on the heels of the Kevin Love trade demand and took Zach LaVine.

But circling back to the current draft and Knueppel.....
-Does San Antonio need upside or do they need safe, solid picks?
-Does Philadelphia need upside or do they need safe, solid picks?
-Does Charlotte need upside or do they need safe, solid picks?
-Does Utah need upside or do they need safe, solid picks?

Utah is probably the first one I would say needs upside over sure things, but then it's Utah and going for upside hasn't really panned out for them recently either.

[Upperclass]

Kon is an onball initiator in the league. Everyone thought Shai didnt have the athleticism, Luka, Giddey, Cade, Franz is also very ball dominant.. and so on and so on. He's a great passer with a solid handle, fantastic footwork and a strong body. He's smart, knows to use defenders leverage against them and makes extremely quick reads.

He is also a lights out shooter that will be tough to guard in a 2 man with another big guard or rolling big.

He's the 2nd best prospect in the draft after his teammate and Milwaukee should be bringing him back in a Giannis trade vs Harper imo.

[azcatz11]

Kon is an onball initiator in the league. Everyone thought Shai didnt have the athleticism, Luka, Giddey, Cade, Franz is also very ball dominant.. and so on and so on. He's a great passer with a solid handle, fantastic footwork and a strong body. He's smart, knows to use defenders leverage against them and makes extremely quick reads.

He is also a lights out shooter that will be tough to guard in a 2 man with another big guard or rolling big.

He's the 2nd best prospect in the draft after his teammate and Milwaukee should be bringing him back in a Giannis trade vs Harper imo.

You keep saying he's an onball initiator but he didn't do any of that at Duke. It's the same thing as saying Carter Bryant will be a good PNR player. We just don't know because they weren't asked to do it...

I'm still taking Ace over him because I want upside.