HotelVitale wrote:I'm sure I don't have to tell you this, but absolutely no stats guy would ever say 'tell me what these three stats are and I'll tell you how good this guy will be.' The whole point of looking for 'telling' stats is to find diamonds in the rough or at least guys who look a little better if you're focusing on some previous indicators of next-level success. Vashro would be the first to tell you how oversimplified his catch-all stat is, how it's just one little tool among many others (his stat also has a pretty weak track record...plus it does basically like Dekker. Puts him at #18 this year, not too far off from his projected position).
My point is that it'd be foolish to focus on just one thing (steal rate, A/TO, etc) and run with it. Saying that 'steal rate is the best indicator of NBA success' is a chatroom answer, not a real evaluation tool. If a guy has like zero steals but everyone thinks he's a great prospect, then it's a red flag. But if he has the 25th best steal rate then you shouldn't fret over taken him top 5.
Oh yeah, you can't just look at those four and run with that as a way to evaluate guys, of course. There's a ton more to it - defensive systems can make steal rates pretty useless (Syracuse's zone is the worst for inflating steal rates). Just having a good or great steal rate isn't going to mean a guy will be a good NBA player. Brendan Dawson is a fantastic example of where just looking at the basic stats fails, because he's a stand-out shot blocker, offensive rebounder, and has a solid steal rate, but he's not a great prospect because he's a wing and he's too limited offensively to be worth keeping on the floor.
In Dekker's case, I think that just .7 steals per40 pace adjusted is a red flag for a wing, but there's a lot more negatives than just his poor steal (and block) rate that have me so down on him. I already mentioned that he was weak on the defensive glass. He's a poor shooter for a wing- way too inconsistent and got worse since his freshman year, not better. His handle is also a bit weak. Without any advanced moves, he's going to struggle getting to the basket a bit in the NBA. He doesn't have much iso-game at all, and that's a serious problem for a wing with a poor jump shot. You note that he had a really low TO rate, but he also had a terrible assist%; he basically didn't create many shots for his teammates.
Dekker's best feature outside of his A/To and offensive rebounding is his FG% at the rim- 75% this season. However, he's really just awful at drawing fouls. Just .44FTA/2PA, which is one of the worst I've actually calculated, and is especially horrid since unlike some guys who don't draw fouls, Dekker took 44% of his shots right at the rim. In his previous two seasons he finished 70% of his shots at the rim, and drew .59FTA/2PA. I think the jump in finishing and decline in foul-drawing can be attributed to his teammates. Koening started in place of Jackson, Kaminsky got even better from deep, and Nigel Hayes went from taking no 3 pointers, to shooting 101 at nearly a 40% clip. This meant that both the starting bigs and guards were knock-down 3 point shooters, so opposing bigs who were in the paint contesting his shot or fouling him his first two seasons were now getting dragged out of the paint. This is all to say that Dekker is good at finishing and poor at drawing fouls, but the numbers from this season paint a more extreme picture due to his unusual team situation.
But so at the next level, Dekker's going to struggle with scoring. Posting him up against smaller wings is pretty much his only isolation offense. How much room is there in the NBA for a wing who is a poor shooter and can't really create for himself or others? He's a good finisher, but it's not like he's a lob target, and he didn't do much work in pick and rolls either. I feel like all of his offensive skills are good enough for college but are poor relative to the next level. He desperately needs to fix that jump shot or he won't have a real offensive role to play.
On the defensive end, he is indeed a good team defender and will make his rotations and everything, but he isn't some impact defender. He isn't going to be locking people up, nor is his help defense anything special. That short wingspan is going to force him to stay closer to guys to contest their shots, and make it real tough for him to pick up steals or blocks. Dumping his poor steal rate, watching him I don't see him being anything more than a neutral defender in the NBA, but combine that with the question marks about his offense and he looks like a poor prospect.
He is typically rated as just a non-lottery first round pick, but I feel like a lot of people are overrating his potential and his floor, and I really think that he's 2nd round material. I really do think that there are more than 30 guys I'd take ahead of him in this draft.
What does Al Jefferson of Kanter mean? Frank can have all the foot work he wants, if he doesn't toughen up and put on some muscle he's not going to last one second in the league. Olynik has a better shot and is at least a little tough under the boards.Olynk can at least be a stretch, I'm not sure about Frank.
