Reed Sheppard and Rob Dillingham - 2024 NBA Draft

[EvanZ]

https://www.si.com/nba/draft/newsfeed/report-nba-draft-prospects-required-to-participate-in-combine-starting-in-2024

Starting in 2024, invited draft prospects will be required to attend and participate in the NBA Draft combine, per a memo obtained by ESPN.

Players who don’t could be ruled ineligible in the draft until the “first subsequent draft for which the player attends and fully participates."

Participating in the combine will include medical examinations, the sharing of medical history and biomechanical and functional movement testing, as well as strength and agility testing, shooting drills, performance testing and anthropometric measurements.

[HadAnEffectHere]

We need measurements. And we'll get them. I have no idea if Dillingham is 6', 6'1", 6'2" or 6'3". Also heard he has super short arms.

I mean, we'll see, Keyonte George ducked the measurements last year because his arms were short, lol.

They can't do that anymore. New rules. Everyone gets measured.

Ohhhh, I thought they only changed the medical info rules as people were using that to try to only go to certain teams. That's nice.

Still wondering how short Keyonte's arms are, lol.

[EvanZ]

Rob Dillingham most likely is going to suck on d, but that is virtually inevitable if he is a high usage point guard in the NBA. I've given this speech before. It's just extremely rare to be a high usage point guard and to also be even average on d. You can count those guys on one hand probably.

And by high usage I'm talking at a minimum 28% but more like 30%+. Once you get to that rarified level of usage it's really good night for any hopes of above-average defense for smaller point guards or really any point guards at all that I can recall. The offensive responsibilities are just too demanding physically to have guys compete *that* hard on both ends. They always end up having to choose offense, including physical outliers like Russ who obviously could be elite on d if he put in the effort. But he couldn't. I doubt that Dillingham is somehow the exception.

So rather than have this silly debate, I choose to accept reality. Dillingham won't be both an elite offensive point guard and anything other than at best an average defender, and most likely worse than that. If you are evaluating him in some other way, you're probably doing it wrong.

[HadAnEffectHere]

The question I have isn't if Rob Dillingham is an elite offensive player while being a very bad defender, my question is if Dillingham has any value if he's just a good offensive player and a very bad defender.

If you take Trae Young's playmaking and shooting and make them like 10-20% worse while removing Trae's flopping skills, is Trae even a net positive player? Because this seems like the most likely outcome for Dillingham to me.

[EvanZ]

Given how every Kentucky guard ever under Cal has vastly outplayed their college rep, my assumption is Dillingham is a future MVP lol

[Hal14]

If you take Trae Young's playmaking and shooting and make them like 10-20% worse while removing Trae's flopping skills, is Trae even a net positive player? Because this seems like the most likely outcome for Dillingham to me.

That's just such a weird, random hypothetical that it's pointless to even discuss.

Hey guys, if you took Kyrie Irving but his ball handling was 12% worse, and he dribbled left handed instead of right handed..and he was 1" taller but 11 lbs lighter and he flopped 6% more. but his teeth were 54% whiter....

Like what the hell? lol

If anyone working for an NBA team tried saying that garbage in their team's war room on draft night, they'd get fired on the spot.

[HadAnEffectHere]

If you take Trae Young's playmaking and shooting and make them like 10-20% worse while removing Trae's flopping skills, is Trae even a net positive player? Because this seems like the most likely outcome for Dillingham to me.

That's just such a weird, random hypothetical that it's pointless to even discuss.

Hey guys, if you took Kyrie Irving but his ball handling was 12% worse, and he dribbled left handed instead of right handed..and he was 1" taller but 11 lbs lighter and he flopped 6% more. but his teeth were 54% whiter....

Like what the hell? lol

If anyone working for an NBA team tried saying that garbage in their team's war room on draft night, they'd get fired on the spot.

"Is worse Trae Young playable in the NBA?" seems like a very legitimate question to ask? Defensive 0s are huge liabilities in the postseason.

[Hal14]

If you take Trae Young's playmaking and shooting and make them like 10-20% worse while removing Trae's flopping skills, is Trae even a net positive player? Because this seems like the most likely outcome for Dillingham to me.

That's just such a weird, random hypothetical that it's pointless to even discuss.

Hey guys, if you took Kyrie Irving but his ball handling was 12% worse, and he dribbled left handed instead of right handed..and he was 1" taller but 11 lbs lighter and he flopped 6% more. but his teeth were 54% whiter....

Like what the hell? lol

If anyone working for an NBA team tried saying that garbage in their team's war room on draft night, they'd get fired on the spot.

"Is worse Trae Young playable in the NBA?" seems like a very legitimate question to ask? Defensive 0s are huge liabilities in the postseason.

Again, Payton Pritchard is a way worse version of Trae Young..and he's definitely playable in the NBA. 1st guard off the bench for the best team in the league. Just got signed to a 4 year extension.

Case in point why these comps and hypotheticals are silly.

If we look at players in the past 20 or so years, only look at freshmen who were between 6'0" - 6'4" and look at players with at least a 4.0 for a BPM, at least a 71% FT%, at least 38% from 3, at least 23% assist rate, at least 2% steals rate, at least 7 3PA/100 possessions and less than a .350 FTr, usage % of at least 24, here's the list of players you get....

Rob Dillingham.

That's it, that's the list.

And keep in mind, Rob is way higher than those minimums and we lower than that FTr, so you'd think a few other guys would have fit that, right? Nope..that just tells you that prospects are very unique..Rob is a very unique prospect and it's basically pointless to rely too much on comps..

[clyde21]

this class is so meh that I would have 0 qualms about taking Dilly top 5, sometimes you just gotta take the asset and run.

[Hal14]

Another reason why we shouldn't base everything on these player comps. I mean, how do we know Rob won't be better than Trae?

Trae shot 36% from 3 in college and 35% from 3 for his career in the NBA. Rob is at 44% from 3 in college. So Rob could end up being a better shooter..and Rob could certainly end up being a better defender than Trae too..

Rob is only a freshman. He could certainly end up being a decent defender. Most freshman guards in a high major conference aren't that good on D..

[HadAnEffectHere]

Rob shot 30% from three in high school and the OTE!

[EvanZ]

If you take Trae Young's playmaking and shooting and make them like 10-20% worse while removing Trae's flopping skills, is Trae even a net positive player? Because this seems like the most likely outcome for Dillingham to me.

That's just such a weird, random hypothetical that it's pointless to even discuss.

Hey guys, if you took Kyrie Irving but his ball handling was 12% worse, and he dribbled left handed instead of right handed..and he was 1" taller but 11 lbs lighter and he flopped 6% more. but his teeth were 54% whiter....

Like what the hell? lol

If anyone working for an NBA team tried saying that garbage in their team's war room on draft night, they'd get fired on the spot.

"Is worse Trae Young playable in the NBA?" seems like a very legitimate question to ask? Defensive 0s are huge liabilities in the postseason.

All legit NBA point guards are essentially defensive 0's. Let's not pretend like it's just Trae Young. It's Lillard. It's Ja. It's Garland. It's Mitchell too. We can go on and on. The ones that aren't 0's are not high usage (like Jrue or Mike Conley).

[Hal14]

Rob shot 30% from three in high school and the OTE!

False.

36.1% from 3 last season in OTE..a very good number, considering he played most of that season at age 17 and a lot of those shots were off the dribble and closely guarded.

Now only is the stat you posted wrong, but it's pointless to post that unless you're also gonna share with us what Trae shot in HS so we have an apples to apples comparison.

[HadAnEffectHere]

Rob shot 30% from three in high school and the OTE!

False.

36.1% from 3 last season in OTE..a very good number, considering he played most of that season at age 17 and a lot of those shots were off the dribble and closely guarded.

Now only is the stat you posted wrong, but it's pointless to post that unless you're also gonna share with us what Trae shot in HS so we have an apples to apples comparison.

I have no idea where you got 36.1% from?

https://overtimeelite.com/players/f01ed4c3-2081-4630-b53b-87818fd4b6ee/seasons/e130bb01-9005-4690-83e6-320eec091f1f

31.9% in the regular season.

https://overtimeelite.com/players/f01ed4c3-2081-4630-b53b-87818fd4b6ee/seasons/21083f2a-c307-4623-a0ef-22ed7ade6407

25% in the postseason (four games)

62.5% in the preseason (one game)

[JMAC3]

Another reason why we shouldn't base everything on these player comps. I mean, how do we know Rob won't be better than Trae?

Trae shot 36% from 3 in college and 35% from 3 for his career in the NBA. Rob is at 44% from 3 in college. So Rob could end up being a better shooter..and Rob could certainly end up being a better defender than Trae too..

Rob is only a freshman. He could certainly end up being a decent defender. Most freshman guards in a high major conference aren't that good on D..

Trae Young stats as a freshman 27.6 ppg, 8.7 apg, 58.5 TS%
Rob Dillingham stats as freshy 15 ppg, 4 apg, 59.4 TS%

Can we put this convo to bed? You are basically asking Rob to double his output while only going down 1% in TS to be in the convo with Trae.

[EvanZ]

Another reason why we shouldn't base everything on these player comps. I mean, how do we know Rob won't be better than Trae?

Trae shot 36% from 3 in college and 35% from 3 for his career in the NBA. Rob is at 44% from 3 in college. So Rob could end up being a better shooter..and Rob could certainly end up being a better defender than Trae too..

Rob is only a freshman. He could certainly end up being a decent defender. Most freshman guards in a high major conference aren't that good on D..

Trae Young stats as a freshman 27.6 ppg, 8.7 apg, 58.5 TS%
Rob Dillingham stats as freshy 15 ppg, 4 apg, 59.4 TS%

Can we put this convo to bed? You are basically asking Rob to double his output while only going down 1% in TS to be in the convo with Trae.

This is actually not that hard to imagine. You simply have to do the thought experiment swapping Rob onto that OSU team or Trae onto this Kentucky team. Their stat lines would look completely different. And we've literally seen time and time again now the effect Calipari has inhibiting his guards. I would never have imagined Quickley was a high usage scorer.

[JMAC3]

This is actually not that hard to imagine. You simply have to do the thought experiment swapping Rob onto that OSU team or Trae onto this Kentucky team. Their stat lines would look completely different. And we've literally seen time and time again now the effect Calipari has inhibiting his guards. I would never have imagined Quickley was a high usage scorer.

Yeah making the jump to a Quickley level player is nowhere near the realm of being a Trae Young type of player.

[EvanZ]

This is actually not that hard to imagine. You simply have to do the thought experiment swapping Rob onto that OSU team or Trae onto this Kentucky team. Their stat lines would look completely different. And we've literally seen time and time again now the effect Calipari has inhibiting his guards. I would never have imagined Quickley was a high usage scorer.

Yeah making the jump to a Quickley level player is nowhere near the realm of being a Trae Young type of player.

Ok, then take Maxey. Arguably better than Trae.

[eminence]

Another reason why we shouldn't base everything on these player comps. I mean, how do we know Rob won't be better than Trae?

Trae shot 36% from 3 in college and 35% from 3 for his career in the NBA. Rob is at 44% from 3 in college. So Rob could end up being a better shooter..and Rob could certainly end up being a better defender than Trae too..

Rob is only a freshman. He could certainly end up being a decent defender. Most freshman guards in a high major conference aren't that good on D..

Trae Young stats as a freshman 27.6 ppg, 8.7 apg, 58.5 TS%
Rob Dillingham stats as freshy 15 ppg, 4 apg, 59.4 TS%

Can we put this convo to bed? You are basically asking Rob to double his output while only going down 1% in TS to be in the convo with Trae.

This is actually not that hard to imagine. You simply have to do the thought experiment swapping Rob onto that OSU team or Trae onto this Kentucky team. Their stat lines would look completely different. And we've literally seen time and time again now the effect Calipari has inhibiting his guards. I would never have imagined Quickley was a high usage scorer.

Quickley isn't a particularly high usage scorer?

[Hal14]

Rob shot 30% from three in high school and the OTE!

False.

36.1% from 3 last season in OTE..a very good number, considering he played most of that season at age 17 and a lot of those shots were off the dribble and closely guarded.

Now only is the stat you posted wrong, but it's pointless to post that unless you're also gonna share with us what Trae shot in HS so we have an apples to apples comparison.

I have no idea where you got 36.1% from?

https://overtimeelite.com/players/f01ed4c3-2081-4630-b53b-87818fd4b6ee/seasons/e130bb01-9005-4690-83e6-320eec091f1f

31.9% in the regular season.

https://overtimeelite.com/players/f01ed4c3-2081-4630-b53b-87818fd4b6ee/seasons/21083f2a-c307-4623-a0ef-22ed7ade6407

25% in the postseason (four games)

62.5% in the preseason (one game)

Got it from RealGM. Just go to his player page, click on game log..select 22-23 season which shows stats for all games he played in last season, in 1 view.