eminence wrote:Charm wrote:eminence wrote:
Some guy named Nash wasn't far over a 1.0 ratio his freshman season. Turned out to be an alright passer.
Sure, but Nash didn't become an All-Star PG overnight. It took nearly a decade of remarkable year-after-year development. Maybe Cade has a puncher's chance to replicate that, but we're projecting waaaaay into the future there.
And nobody expects Cade to be anywhere close to that, especially overnight (or ever, let's be honest, Nash is a GOAT candidate passer). That doesn't mean it's not a good option for a young team to turn their offense over to him to try to develop him into that clear offensive lead guy.
I think my issue is that even by the eye test, Cade doesn’t appear to be a lead playmaker - both because he just doesn’t have the penetration ability and because I really don’t think he’s that good of a passer
if you’re comparing him to other primary ball handlers.
And statistically, I’m not sure anyone with a sub-1.0 AST/TO ratio in college has ever turned out to be a quality lead playmaker in the NBA. Even with guys like Nash (who by the way passed the eye test as a playmaker in ways Cade didn’t), you’re talking about a 1.08 ratio versus a 0.86 ratio, which is a significant difference. I understand the argument that if Nash could become possibly the GOAT passer despite an uninspiring AST/TO ratio, then it’s not out of the realm of possibility that Cade can be an at least good primary playmaker in the NBA. But when we’re coming up with projections, all we can really do is go off what we think are the most likely outcomes, and historically, if you go by the data, Cade would be a complete outlier if he turns out to be a guy who can run your offense. And if I’m a GM I’d rather draft based on the most likely scenario rather than the absolute best possible case scenario if everything breaks right, the latter of which is a trap I think too many front offices fall into.
I do still like Cade as a prospect, but I think he’s my #2 behind Mobley in a draft I’m already not as high on as others. If I had more confidence in myself and didn’t let the consensus opinion sway my thoughts, I’d probably rank him a little lower. To me, he optimistically projects as a secondary playmaker wing who will operate similarly to Middleton or Tatum in terms of style/role. Because I think he can shoot the hell out of the ball, he’s got decent team defender potential, and he’s definitely a great playmaker relative to other wings in the league. But I’m very concerned with his penetration ability and finishing, and I don’t think it’s a guarantee he’ll be an actual difference maker on defense. If a team tries to develop him as an oversized PG I think they’ll regret it.