Scoot Henderson

[Big J]

I've seen Scoot drop to 3 in multiple mocks, and now his fanboys are in shambles trying to figure out what went wrong. Thing is, Miller is leapfrogging him because he is more typical of a superstar in the modern game. The length, the efficiency, the scoring the passing. It's not really surprising what is happening when you take off the homer goggles and take a few deep breaths. No team wants to build around an inefficient small point guard who is not very good defensively.

[The-Power]

The main difference is clearly 3PAr. And defense but that's another topic.

this rumor floating around that Scoot doesn't play defense is weird.

I've seen him play very bad defense lately, and he clearly has shortcomings on that end compared to someone like Miller (few players with Scoot's size are actually plus defenders). But we've also disagreed on Keyonte George in that regard. I think both of them are definitely going to be below-average defenders at least for the foreseeable future (the tools are solid enough to eventually become decent but I wouldn't count on anything beyond that because mentality and instincts play a huge role in that and are usually already there or not at that age). Since neither of us will be able to convince the other, we can just agree to disagree (although I would be open to picking out one or two games for each of them and we both can talk about their defense in more detail and talk in more concrete terms – just let me know).

[clyde21]

The main difference is clearly 3PAr. And defense but that's another topic.

this rumor floating around that Scoot doesn't play defense is weird.

(few players with Scoot's size are actually plus defenders).

is there data that backs this up? are players 'his size' less prone to being good defenders for their position or something?

there are plenty of good defenders 'his size' (and I'd argue smaller given they are not as strong/big/lengthy)...Gary Payton, Chris Paul, Marcus Smart, Jrue Holiday, Mike Conley, Jones bros, you can go down the list.

and i'd say he has just as much size coverage as someone like Klay Thompson or Matisse Thybulle too tbh if are actually talking about length/reach ratios.

also, wings are just as likely if not more likely to be bad defenders. the only differences is it's much more important for wings to be good defenders than PGs, so those guys are outta the league quickly if they can't do anything else. that's why wings are a premium because wings that can defend and are not total 0s on offense are rare.

but this assumption that he's not gonna be a good defender b/c of his size is one of the weirdest things I've seen on this board. Davion Mitchell got drafted top 10 based on his defensive prowess alone and he's barely 6ft.

[azcatz11]

this rumor floating around that Scoot doesn't play defense is weird.

(few players with Scoot's size are actually plus defenders).

is there data that backs this up? are players 'his size' less prone to being good defenders for their position or something?

there are plenty of good defenders 'his size' (and I'd argue smaller given they are not as strong/big/lengthy)...Gary Payton, Chris Paul, Marcus Smart, Jrue Holiday, Mike Conley, Jones bros, you can go down the list.

and i'd say he has just as much size coverage as someone like Klay Thompson or Matisse Thybulle too tbh if are actually talking about length/reach ratios.

also, wings are just as likely if not more likely to be bad defenders. the only differences is it's much more important for wings to be good defenders than PGs, so those guys are outta the league quickly if they can't do anything else. that's why wings are a premium because wings that can defend and are not total 0s on offense are rare.

but this assumption that he's not gonna be a good defender b/c of his size is one of the weirdest things I've seen on this board. Davion Mitchell got drafted top 10 based on his defensive prowess alone and he's barely 6ft.

Is your comp Spida with good defense? Just curious my friend.

[clyde21]

(few players with Scoot's size are actually plus defenders).

is there data that backs this up? are players 'his size' less prone to being good defenders for their position or something?

there are plenty of good defenders 'his size' (and I'd argue smaller given they are not as strong/big/lengthy)...Gary Payton, Chris Paul, Marcus Smart, Jrue Holiday, Mike Conley, Jones bros, you can go down the list.

and i'd say he has just as much size coverage as someone like Klay Thompson or Matisse Thybulle too tbh if are actually talking about length/reach ratios.

also, wings are just as likely if not more likely to be bad defenders. the only differences is it's much more important for wings to be good defenders than PGs, so those guys are outta the league quickly if they can't do anything else. that's why wings are a premium because wings that can defend and are not total 0s on offense are rare.

but this assumption that he's not gonna be a good defender b/c of his size is one of the weirdest things I've seen on this board. Davion Mitchell got drafted top 10 based on his defensive prowess alone and he's barely 6ft.

Is your comp Spida with good defense? Just curious my friend.

it's a decent comp but I wouldn't even go there b/c D Mitch is a combo guy, Scoot's a true PG.

[clyde21]

honestly the best semi recent comp I can come up with is Detroit Chauncey Billups, from like 06-09, but more athletic, kinda like Baron Davis athleticism/physical profile.

B-Diddy would also be a good comp I guess, but more Hornets BD instead of Warriors BD

[CptCrunch]

I've seen Scoot drop to 3 in multiple mocks, and now his fanboys are in shambles trying to figure out what went wrong. Thing is, Miller is leapfrogging him because he is more typical of a superstar in the modern game. The length, the efficiency, the scoring the passing. It's not really surprising what is happening when you take off the homer goggles and take a few deep breaths. No team wants to build around an inefficient small point guard who is not very good defensively.

How many NBA league offices did you send this scouting report to?

[The-Power]

is there data that backs this up? are players 'his size' less prone to being good defenders for their position or something?

there are plenty of good defenders 'his size' (and I'd argue smaller given they are not as strong/big/lengthy)...Gary Payton, Chris Paul, Marcus Smart, Jrue Holiday, Mike Conley, Jones bros, you can go down the list.

It's not really relative to position. Obviously for every position individually you should expect a similar distribution. But smaller players tend to have more exploitable weaknesses compared to larger players (who are still solid athletically). Smaller players are hunted a lot more in the playoffs compared to larger players.

But I agree that relative to position matters if (!) you need your offensive load to be handled by a smaller player who tend to be more skilled in the NBA (if only because the pool of such players is just much greater). But if you can get away with not playing smaller players, teams tend to be inclined to do that unless the smaller players are truly elite defenders.

You mentioned some players and most of them are good defenders, especially for their position / relative to their height (although not all are right now). But the majority of them do not carry the offensive load for their teams. Generally, players who carry more load on offense are less engaged on defense – but only those with good NBA size tend to be able to get away with it (more or less) without giving up points on the other end.

Among current Guards that do not have awesome size for their position and do carry a heavy scoring and creation load (which is what we expect of Scoot), I'd say the list of players who cannot be seriously exploited is pretty short. Let's look at this year, players with >18 PPG and >5 APG. Here's the list (ordered by PPG):

Spoiler:

Lillard
Curry
Irving
Morant
Young
Fox
Brunson
Garland
Rozier
McCollum
Haliburton
D. Murray
J. Murray
Holiday
VanVleet
Russell

How many of them are genuinely good defenders? Holiday and D. Murray (not sure how consistent he's been for Atlanta on that end)? And how many more of them cannot be relatively easily targeted and exploited – to different degrees of course – in the playoffs? Curry and VanVleet? Not sure about Rozier and Brunson this year. But yeah, the list is pretty short I'd say even if we disagree on a couple players.

And I have seen nothing in Scoot's play to indicate that he's a Holiday or D. Murray level of defender in terms of effort and ability. And for players like Curry and VanVleet, it took years to develop into players who can provide positive value on that end even when teams can scout them out. I just think it's much more likely that Scoot ends up being another Morant, Fox, Lillard or Irving on that end, i.e., someone who carries a lot of offensive burden that makes them exploitable defenders because they cannot, and do not have the mindset to, put in consistently high effort on that end.

I believe Scoot has solid tools to develop into someone who can at least hold his own on defense when he wants to, but the G-League games haven't given me confidence that high-level intensity or instinctual plays on defense come natural to him. And we can talk about the importance (or lack thereof) of G-League games and that they don't really matter; but usually, for players to whom defense comes naturally it doesn't really matter where they play, they'll always try hard and make defensive plays consistently. And players who develop into those kinds of players once they enter the NBA aren't usually primary offensive options who play regardless simply because they are needed on offense. It's tough to develop a defensive mindset when you're already the franchise player without.

[Big J]

Yea, guys like Holiday, Conley, Smart showed much greater effort and awareness on that end at a young age. No one is saying that he's going to be Trae on that end, but he's more likely than not going to be a negative defensively.

[clyde21]

is there data that backs this up? are players 'his size' less prone to being good defenders for their position or something?

there are plenty of good defenders 'his size' (and I'd argue smaller given they are not as strong/big/lengthy)...Gary Payton, Chris Paul, Marcus Smart, Jrue Holiday, Mike Conley, Jones bros, you can go down the list.

It's not really relative to position. Obviously for every position individually you should expect a similar distribution. But smaller players tend to have more exploitable weaknesses compared to larger players (who are still solid athletically). Smaller players are hunted a lot more in the playoffs compared to larger players.

But I agree that relative to position matters if (!) you need your offensive load to be handled by a smaller player who tend to be more skilled in the NBA (if only because the pool of such players is just much greater). But if you can get away with not playing smaller players, teams tend to be inclined to do that unless the smaller players are truly elite defenders.

You mentioned some players and most of them are good defenders, especially for their position / relative to their height (although not all are right now). But the majority of them do not carry the offensive load for their teams. Generally, players who carry more load on offense are less engaged on defense – but only those with good NBA size tend to be able to get away with it (more or less) without giving up points on the other end.

Among current Guards that do not have awesome size for their position and do carry a heavy scoring and creation load (which is what we expect of Scoot), I'd say the list of players who cannot be seriously exploited is pretty short. Let's look at this year, players with >18 PPG and >5 APG. Here's the list (ordered by PPG):

Spoiler:

Lillard
Curry
Irving
Morant
Young
Fox
Brunson
Garland
Rozier
McCollum
Haliburton
D. Murray
J. Murray
Holiday
VanVleet
Russell

How many of them are genuinely good defenders? Holiday and D. Murray (not sure how consistent he's been for Atlanta on that end)? And how many more of them cannot be relatively easily targeted and exploited – to different degrees of course – in the playoffs? Curry and VanVleet? Not sure about Rozier and Brunson this year. But yeah, the list is pretty short I'd say even if we disagree on a couple players.

And I have seen nothing in Scoot's play to indicate that he's a Holiday or D. Murray level of defender in terms of effort and ability. And for players like Curry and VanVleet, it took years to develop into players who can provide positive value on that end even when teams can scout them out. I just think it's much more likely that Scoot ends up being another Morant, Fox, Lillard or Irving on that end, i.e., someone who carries a lot of offensive burden that makes them exploitable defenders because they cannot, and do not have the mindset to, put in consistently high effort on that end.

I believe Scoot has solid tools to develop into someone who can at least hold his own on defense when he wants to, but the G-League games haven't given me confidence that high-level intensity or instinctual plays on defense come natural to him. And we can talk about the importance (or lack thereof) of G-League games and that they don't really matter; but usually, for players to whom defense comes naturally it doesn't really matter where they play, they'll always try hard and make defensive plays consistently. And players who develop into those kinds of players once they enter the NBA aren't usually primary offensive options who play regardless simply because they are needed on offense. It's tough to develop a defensive mindset when you're already the franchise player without.

there is a lot of stuff right here that I don't have a lot of time to drill down on, but a few main points I want to make/highlight:

- the threshold for defensive effectiveness and impact is much higher for wings than guards, so if we are gonna take Miller/Scoot as examples, Miller has to reach a higher defensive ceiling than Scoot to have impact on that end in NBA games.

- this is why it seems like there are a lot more defensive wings than there are guards, but that's only because guards can be impactful without being great defenders, but wings generally speaking have to at least be passable defensively to really get major NBA minutes. if you're a wing that can't defend, you have to have an elite trait (in today's NBA that's shooting)...otherwise you're just not gonna be in the league for very long.

- i don't agree with the notion that someone 6-9 is automatically a better defender than someone 6-2. all that means is the 6-9 player has a higher defensive threshold he needs to meet to see the court, but it doesn't automatically mean the 6-9 guy is a better defender. Gary Payton was probably the best inch of inch defender on the Warriors last year and he's what, 6-1 if that?

- i don't want to make this about Scoot vs. Miller, but I think at this point it seems to me that Scoot's getting a bit underrated defensively and Miller is getting overrated defensively. He's a good team defender, which in today's NBA is infinitely more important than POA perimeter defender, even tho I have no issues with him long term in that capacity either, and there is potential there for him being able to defend 1-3 in the NBA at some point too.

[The-Power]

there is a lot of stuff right here that I don't have a lot of time to drill down on, but a few main points I want to make/highlight:

- the threshold for defensive effectiveness and impact is much higher for wings than guards, so if we are gonna take Miller/Scoot as examples, Miller has to reach a higher defensive ceiling than Scoot to have impact on that end in NBA games.

Well, impact in today's NBA is more and more holistic and not relative to position because basketball is becoming more position-less. If Miller can defend better overall than Scoot, irrespective of position, that means Scoot would have to make up that gap on offense.

Also, to look at it from a different angle: any team can easily integrate Miller and not experience any negative effects. The same cannot be said about Scoot. You can either not play another PG with limited size next to him (which means you lose offense in the form of opportunity cost) or you play him next to another PG with limited size and you're either hurting your defense or you have to compensate for it on other positions (which again means you lose offense in the form of opportunity cost).

That is to say: an average defender at the wing is a lot easier to integrate without any problems – and provides more line-up flexibility – than an average defender at PG. That's why taller wings who can play multiple positions are the prime commodity in the NBA.

- this is why it seems like there are a lot more defensive wings than there are guards, but that's only because guards can be impactful without being great defenders, but wings generally speaking have to at least be passable defensively to really get major NBA minutes. if you're a wing that can't defend, you have to have an elite trait (in today's NBA that's shooting)...otherwise you're just not gonna be in the league for very long.

I mean, the same is true for Guards – and even more so. If you're not at least passable defensively as a Guard, you need to provide a ton of offensive value (due to some elite traits) if you want to be in the NBA. There are tons of offensively skilled Guards in the G-League and Europe because they can't make it in the NBA. There aren't a lot of offensively skilled 6'9 guys in the G-League and Europe because these players are rare and impactful and thereby coveted by NBA teams.

- i don't agree with the notion that someone 6-9 is automatically a better defender than someone 6-2. all that means is the 6-9 player has a higher defensive threshold he needs to meet to see the court, but it doesn't automatically mean the 6-9 guy is a better defender. Gary Payton was probably the best inch of inch defender on the Warriors last year and he's what, 6-1 if that?

I never said that taller players are automatically better defenders. I said that it's a lot easier for someone with size to be better defensively. Size and length matter in basketball after all – especially on defense. That's why we all care about measurements.

- i don't want to make this about Scoot vs. Miller, but I think at this point it seems to me that Scoot's getting a bit underrated defensively and Miller is getting overrated defensively. He's a good team defender, which in today's NBA is infinitely more important than POA perimeter defender, even tho I have no issues with him long term in that capacity either, and there is potential there for him being able to defend 1-3 in the NBA at some point too.

Let's just agree to disagree regarding Scoot's current level on defense. I do agree that he has decent tools (for his size) but I just don't expect primary offensive options to turn into a different type and tier of defender in the NBA even though it happens occasionally.

Too many offensive stars have the tools to be better defenders than they are but never put in the effort to learn and execute playing defense and thereby maximize their potential. And if your small Guard coasts a bit, you have a problem that you need to cover on defense. If your long Wing coasts, it's not ideal but doesn't hurt your defense nearly as much.

[BostonCouchGM]

I predicted this months ago and it's a major red flag imho. I want kids who live and breather basketball to lead my team, not guys cool with being shut down. I'm taking the twins and Miller over Scoot. You can't teach heart and this is now multiple seasons where Scoot has seemingly been fine sitting out games. I think he's clearly talented but it's not like he's 6'4" or a great shooter. He has holes to his game so his head has to be right and I don't think it is. He's young so he gets somewhat of a pass which is why he's still a top 5 guy.

[Village Idiot]

I predicted this months ago and it's a major red flag imho. I want kids who live and breather basketball to lead my team, not guys cool with being shut down. I'm taking the twins and Miller over Scoot. You can't teach heart and this is now multiple seasons where Scoot has seemingly been fine sitting out games. I think he's clearly talented but it's not like he's 6'4" or a great shooter. He has holes to his game so his head has to be right and I don't think it is. He's young so he gets somewhat of a pass which is why he's still a top 5 guy.

While a lot of the criticisms of Scoot's game are valid I wanted to add something Hollinger wrote this week.

On the other hand, Henderson’s own work ethic seems exemplary, and might actually be part of the issue: a staffer told me he was already on the arena floor practicing at 3 p.m. for a 7 p.m. game, which would have meant he worked out for over two hours on a game day. (He wasn’t just lobbing free throws, either.) When I got there they were actually trying to pull him off the floor for a media hit and he was continuing to work. Seeing him dominate the first quarter before fading, I’m wondering if he was spent by halftime.

[The Box Office]

Really? "Spent by halftime?"

A 19 year old kid with tons of natural energy. He could have taken an hour nap and gulp down energy drink.

Spent by halftime.

[Big J]

I know it’s hard for people to accept, but Miller has passed Scoot up. He just has and that’s ok. Just take the L and move on.

[JMAC3]

is there data that backs this up? are players 'his size' less prone to being good defenders for their position or something?

there are plenty of good defenders 'his size' (and I'd argue smaller given they are not as strong/big/lengthy)...Gary Payton, Chris Paul, Marcus Smart, Jrue Holiday, Mike Conley, Jones bros, you can go down the list.

It's not really relative to position. Obviously for every position individually you should expect a similar distribution. But smaller players tend to have more exploitable weaknesses compared to larger players (who are still solid athletically). Smaller players are hunted a lot more in the playoffs compared to larger players.

But I agree that relative to position matters if (!) you need your offensive load to be handled by a smaller player who tend to be more skilled in the NBA (if only because the pool of such players is just much greater). But if you can get away with not playing smaller players, teams tend to be inclined to do that unless the smaller players are truly elite defenders.

You mentioned some players and most of them are good defenders, especially for their position / relative to their height (although not all are right now). But the majority of them do not carry the offensive load for their teams. Generally, players who carry more load on offense are less engaged on defense – but only those with good NBA size tend to be able to get away with it (more or less) without giving up points on the other end.

Among current Guards that do not have awesome size for their position and do carry a heavy scoring and creation load (which is what we expect of Scoot), I'd say the list of players who cannot be seriously exploited is pretty short. Let's look at this year, players with >18 PPG and >5 APG. Here's the list (ordered by PPG):

Spoiler:

Lillard
Curry
Irving
Morant
Young
Fox
Brunson
Garland
Rozier
McCollum
Haliburton
D. Murray
J. Murray
Holiday
VanVleet
Russell

How many of them are genuinely good defenders? Holiday and D. Murray (not sure how consistent he's been for Atlanta on that end)? And how many more of them cannot be relatively easily targeted and exploited – to different degrees of course – in the playoffs? Curry and VanVleet? Not sure about Rozier and Brunson this year. But yeah, the list is pretty short I'd say even if we disagree on a couple players.

And I have seen nothing in Scoot's play to indicate that he's a Holiday or D. Murray level of defender in terms of effort and ability. And for players like Curry and VanVleet, it took years to develop into players who can provide positive value on that end even when teams can scout them out. I just think it's much more likely that Scoot ends up being another Morant, Fox, Lillard or Irving on that end, i.e., someone who carries a lot of offensive burden that makes them exploitable defenders because they cannot, and do not have the mindset to, put in consistently high effort on that end.

I believe Scoot has solid tools to develop into someone who can at least hold his own on defense when he wants to, but the G-League games haven't given me confidence that high-level intensity or instinctual plays on defense come natural to him. And we can talk about the importance (or lack thereof) of G-League games and that they don't really matter; but usually, for players to whom defense comes naturally it doesn't really matter where they play, they'll always try hard and make defensive plays consistently. And players who develop into those kinds of players once they enter the NBA aren't usually primary offensive options who play regardless simply because they are needed on offense. It's tough to develop a defensive mindset when you're already the franchise player without.

This times 1000, majority of the good defenders his size are very meh to bad offensively. Not 20 ppg scorers.

[JMAC3]

There is a reason that since 2012 only 1 player under 6-4 has been drafted in the top 4. and if a decade of draft data isn't enough for you then Idk what to tell you.

[reanimator]

2012
Brad Beal went 3rd and Dame went 6th but should have went 1st/2nd.

2013
Cj McCollum went 10th but should have went 3rd or 4th

2017
Fox went 6th and Donovan Mitchell went 13th but both go top 4 in a redraft

2018
Trae Young went 5th but goes top 4 in a redraft

2019
Ja went 2nd but Garland joins him in the top 4 in a redraft

Lets see if history repeats itself with a "small guard" being undervalued for guys with more size

[clyde21]

this thread is gonna be a goldmine in a few yrs

[Big J]

2012
Brad Beal went 3rd and Dame went 6th but should have went 1st/2nd.

2013
Cj McCollum went 10th but should have went 3rd or 4th

2017
Fox went 6th and Donovan Mitchell went 13th but both go top 4 in a redraft

2018
Trae Young went 5th but goes top 4 in a redraft

2019
Ja went 2nd but Garland joins him in the top 4 in a redraft

Lets see if history repeats itself with a "small guard" being undervalued for guys with more size

Speaking of history, I seem to remember in 2017 when a small guard with with unquestioned hype got drafted over a 5 tool guy who looked the part.