Ace Bailey

[SkyHook]

Tony Jones did a radio interview this week where he said he thinks Philly will take Edgecombe if they keep the pick. He thinks Charlotte will then pick between Johnson and Knueppel at #4. Then he thinks the Jazz will likely take Ace at #5 (although maybe Johnson also gets to 5). He's got a good record and doesn't just say things without being sourced.

If Ace is the Jazz pick, I hope that they're looking to move him for value rather than keeping him. He is far and away my choice for the virtually inevitable top-5 bust.

I am worried about him with the Jazz and if they trade Lauri for PG13 and Ace. I am not a fan of it for Ace.

The Jazz trading up for the third pick in order to select Ace is my absolute worst case scenario for this draft.

[King Ken]

If Ace is the Jazz pick, I hope that they're looking to move him for value rather than keeping him. He is far and away my choice for the virtually inevitable top-5 bust.

I am worried about him with the Jazz and if they trade Lauri for PG13 and Ace. I am not a fan of it for Ace.

The Jazz trading up for the third pick in order to select Ace is my absolute worst case scenario for this draft.

I wouldn't do it because it is a pick swap as well.

[Catchall]

I think Ace goes 3rd to Philly (could then be traded) or he goes 5th to Utah. Small chance he slips to 6 or 7.

I don't think the Jazz will trade Lauri + 5 to move up to 3 and take back Paul George's deal. Lauri is younger, healthier and likes being in Utah.

[Frichuela]

I think Ace goes 3rd to Philly (could then be traded) or he goes 5th to Utah. Small chance he slips to 6 or 7.

I don't think the Jazz will trade Lauri + 5 to move up to 3 and take back Paul George's deal. Lauri is younger, healthier and likes being in Utah.

Agreed. Just speculation, but the Wizards may trade up to get Ace at #3, if they are convinced he has the right upside of course.

George+fodder+#3 for Middleton+Kispert+Bey+#6 could be a framework. Philly gets out of 3-years of George and gets:

1) A replacement in Middleton with just 1 year left.
2) Two wings/forwards in Kispert+Bey to beef up the bench.
3) #6, where they could target Malauch, Queen or Sorber as their center to back up Embiid.

[tester551]

I think Ace goes 3rd to Philly (could then be traded) or he goes 5th to Utah. Small chance he slips to 6 or 7.

I don't think the Jazz will trade Lauri + 5 to move up to 3 and take back Paul George's deal. Lauri is younger, healthier and likes being in Utah.

Agreed. Just speculation, but the Wizards may trade up to get Ace at #3, if they are convinced he has the right upside of course.

George+fodder+#3 for Middleton+Kispert+Bey+#6 could be a framework. Philly gets out of 3-years of George and gets:

1) A replacement in Middleton with just 1 year left.
2) Two wings/forwards in Kispert+Bey to beef up the bench.
3) #6, where they could target Malauch, Queen or Sorber as their center to back up Embiid.

This makes a lot of sense to me for the 76ers.
I don't like it for the Wizards, but can see the appeal if they REALLY think Ace is the guy.

[Catchall]

I think Ace goes 3rd to Philly (could then be traded) or he goes 5th to Utah. Small chance he slips to 6 or 7.

I don't think the Jazz will trade Lauri + 5 to move up to 3 and take back Paul George's deal. Lauri is younger, healthier and likes being in Utah.

Agreed. Just speculation, but the Wizards may trade up to get Ace at #3, if they are convinced he has the right upside of course.

George+fodder+#3 for Middleton+Kispert+Bey+#6 could be a framework. Philly gets out of 3-years of George and gets:

1) A replacement in Middleton with just 1 year left.
2) Two wings/forwards in Kispert+Bey to beef up the bench.
3) #6, where they could target Malauch, Queen or Sorber as their center to back up Embiid.

I don't think Philly would do that deal. I think they'd keep PG and ride it out rather than take back Middleton and salary filler. Middleton missed an awful lot of games last year and isn't comparable to PG as a player.

[Frichuela]

I think Ace goes 3rd to Philly (could then be traded) or he goes 5th to Utah. Small chance he slips to 6 or 7.

I don't think the Jazz will trade Lauri + 5 to move up to 3 and take back Paul George's deal. Lauri is younger, healthier and likes being in Utah.

Agreed. Just speculation, but the Wizards may trade up to get Ace at #3, if they are convinced he has the right upside of course.

George+fodder+#3 for Middleton+Kispert+Bey+#6 could be a framework. Philly gets out of 3-years of George and gets:

1) A replacement in Middleton with just 1 year left.
2) Two wings/forwards in Kispert+Bey to beef up the bench.
3) #6, where they could target Malauch, Queen or Sorber as their center to back up Embiid.

I don't think Philly would do that deal. I think they'd keep PG and ride it out rather than take back Middleton and salary filler. Middleton missed an awful lot of games last year and isn't comparable to PG as a player.

Well that may be the case. However, George missed almost as many games as Middleton last year, is a year older and has 3 more years at a whooping +50mn/year (vs. Middleton just 1 year). Their stats are also quite similar last season:

https://stathead.com/basketball/versus-finder.cgi?player_id2=georgpa01&year_min=2025&player_id1=middlkh01&seasons_type=forall&request=1&utm_id=middlkh01&utm_campaign=2023_01_wdgt_player_comparison&utm_medium=sr_xsite&utm_source=bbr

[FarBeyondDriven]

If the Sixers are keeping Paul George and trying to compete, given their current cap space, before they match whatever offer Grimes will surely get, and the likely FA losses, they need bodies bad. I wonder if they'll entertain moving back so they can pick up extra picks. Nets have 4 first rounders. The Wizards, Hawks, Jazz, and Magic have 2 first rounders. I think with the roster crunch the Thunder have, with them having 2 first rounders and many future picks I wonder if they'd rather consolidate and take a guy they're really high on instead of trading out for more future picks. They're going to have to pay SGA, Chet and Williams soon and a whole slew of their other guys are potentially going to be too expensive to keep or are FAs. Like, maybe they'd move up for Edgecomb who they feel could replace Dort and not even take Ace in that instance? Or Maluach since Hartenstein could be gone after next season? Whatever the case #3 is where this draft starts as far as excitement goes.

[JMAC3]

If the Sixers are keeping Paul George and trying to compete, given their current cap space, before they match whatever offer Grimes will surely get, and the likely FA losses, they need bodies bad. I wonder if they'll entertain moving back so they can pick up extra picks. Nets have 4 first rounders. The Wizards, Hawks, Jazz, and Magic have 2 first rounders. I think with the roster crunch the Thunder have, with them having 2 first rounders and many future picks I wonder if they'd rather consolidate and take a guy they're really high on instead of trading out for more future picks. They're going to have to pay SGA, Chet and Williams soon and a whole slew of their other guys are potentially going to be too expensive to keep or are FAs. Like, maybe they'd move up for Edgecomb who they feel could replace Dort and not even take Ace in that instance? Or Maluach since Hartenstein could be gone after next season? Whatever the case #3 is where this draft starts as far as excitement goes.

Sixers have just as much depth as half the contenders do.

Maxey
McCain - Grimes
Ace - Oubre
PG- Edwards
Embiid - Drummond- Bona

Maybe Yabusele, plus pick 35. That is 10-11 deep.

[SkyHook]

I’ve settled in on the perfect comparable for Bailey: Josh Jackson. I thought about Stromile Swift, but he was probably better than Ace coming out of college. Is there a better one?

[JMAC3]

Here is the issue, we all suck at evaluating wing prospects. Why? Because people are really bad at accepting that most elite wings weren't very elite in college. Most of the best wings in todays NBA were not efficient scorers in college and were not good playmakers in college, but when we think of Carmelo, KD, Paul George etc we instantly think about how awesome they are in the NBA and then act as if WingX in this draft could never be as good as they are....... This was my entire argument for Brandon Miller a few years ago when people said he wouldn't be good because of his lack of playmaking.

Kevin Durant 40.40% 3pt% 53.60% efg% 1.3 Assists 2.8 Turnovers
Brandon Miller 38.40% 3pt% 53.30% efg% 2.1 Assists 2.2 Turnovers
Brandon Ingram 41.00% 3pt% 52.50% efg% 2.0 Assists 2.0 Turnovers
Paolo Banchero 33.80% 3pt% 52.00% efg% 3.2 Assists 2.4 Turnovers
Airious Bailey 34.60% 3pt% 51.40% efg% 1.3 Assists 2.2 Turnovers
Jayson Tatum 34.20% 3pt% 50.70% efg% 2.1 Assists 2.6 Turnovers
Paul George 35.30% 3pt% 50.60% efg% 3.0 Assists 3.2 Turnovers
R.J. Barrett 30.80% 3pt% 50.60% efg% 4.3 Assists 3.2 Turnovers
Andrew Wiggins 34.10% 3pt% 49.90% efg% 1.5 Assists 2.3 Turnovers
Carmelo Anthony 33.70% 3pt% 49.80% efg% 2.2 Assists 2.2 Turnovers
Harrison Barnes 35.80% 3pt% 48.70% efg% 1.1 Assists 1.9 Turnovers
Anthony Edwards 29.40% 3pt% 47.30% efg% 2.8 Assists 2.7 Turnovers
Jaylen Brown 29.40% 3pt% 47.10% efg% 2.0 Assists 3.1 Turnovers
Khris Middleton 26.00% 3pt% 45.50% efg% 2.2 Assists 2.1 Turnovers

So Ace Bailey, the guy that people will tell you is wildly inefficient basketball player is the 5th most efficient among these 15 players by efg%. Doesn't seem wildly inefficient to me.

Just like when I made my point about Brandon Miller a few years ago, college wings do not flourish as playmakers. This is a skill that is almost always refined in the NBA evidence by 4 of 15 guys averaging above 2.2 assists per game in college. Ace 2.2 turnovers is pretty consistent with this list as well. Durant, Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Paul George all rocking negative assist to turnover ratios- all pretty good playmakers in the NBA.

Again, Ace isn't a perfect prospect. He needs to improve at things but I think this shows that he isn't some sort of anomaly of a player that people are constantly out to make him look like.

[SkyHook]

Here is the issue, we all suck at evaluating wing prospects. Why? Because people are really bad at accepting that most elite wings weren't very elite in college. Most of the best wings in todays NBA were not efficient scorers in college and were not good playmakers in college, but when we think of Carmelo, KD, Paul George etc we instantly think about how awesome they are in the NBA and then act as if WingX in this draft could never be as good as they are....... This was my entire argument for Brandon Miller a few years ago when people said he wouldn't be good because of his lack of playmaking.

Spoiler:

Kevin Durant 40.40% 3pt% 53.60% efg% 1.3 Assists 2.8 Turnovers
Brandon Miller 38.40% 3pt% 53.30% efg% 2.1 Assists 2.2 Turnovers
Brandon Ingram 41.00% 3pt% 52.50% efg% 2.0 Assists 2.0 Turnovers
Paolo Banchero 33.80% 3pt% 52.00% efg% 3.2 Assists 2.4 Turnovers
Airious Bailey 34.60% 3pt% 51.40% efg% 1.3 Assists 2.2 Turnovers
Jayson Tatum 34.20% 3pt% 50.70% efg% 2.1 Assists 2.6 Turnovers
Paul George 35.30% 3pt% 50.60% efg% 3.0 Assists 3.2 Turnovers
R.J. Barrett 30.80% 3pt% 50.60% efg% 4.3 Assists 3.2 Turnovers
Andrew Wiggins 34.10% 3pt% 49.90% efg% 1.5 Assists 2.3 Turnovers
Carmelo Anthony 33.70% 3pt% 49.80% efg% 2.2 Assists 2.2 Turnovers
Harrison Barnes 35.80% 3pt% 48.70% efg% 1.1 Assists 1.9 Turnovers
Anthony Edwards 29.40% 3pt% 47.30% efg% 2.8 Assists 2.7 Turnovers
Jaylen Brown 29.40% 3pt% 47.10% efg% 2.0 Assists 3.1 Turnovers
Khris Middleton 26.00% 3pt% 45.50% efg% 2.2 Assists 2.1 Turnovers

So Ace Bailey, the guy that people will tell you is wildly inefficient basketball player is the 5th most efficient among these 15 players by efg%. Doesn't seem wildly inefficient to me.

Just like when I made my point about Brandon Miller a few years ago, college wings do not flourish as playmakers. This is a skill that is almost always refined in the NBA evidence by 4 of 15 guys averaging above 2.2 assists per game in college. Ace 2.2 turnovers is pretty consistent with this list as well. Durant, Tatum, Jaylen Brown and Paul George all rocking negative assist to turnover ratios- all pretty good playmakers in the NBA.

Again, Ace isn't a perfect prospect. He needs to improve at things but I think this shows that he isn't some sort of anomaly of a player that people are constantly out to make him look like.

This is well written. We certainly all suck at evaluating wing prospects. I wanted the Jazz to trade up from 10 to 5 last year to select... Cody Williams. It all remains to be seen, of course. Barring an immediate collapse by one of these prospects, we really won't know what we have with any of them for years to come.

I don't know that I see Bailey as an anomaly or outlier in this context, but I'm just getting eerily similar vibes. https://www.nbadraft.net/face-off-josh-jackson-vs-jayson-tatum/

[FarBeyondDriven]

If the Sixers are keeping Paul George and trying to compete, given their current cap space, before they match whatever offer Grimes will surely get, and the likely FA losses, they need bodies bad. I wonder if they'll entertain moving back so they can pick up extra picks. Nets have 4 first rounders. The Wizards, Hawks, Jazz, and Magic have 2 first rounders. I think with the roster crunch the Thunder have, with them having 2 first rounders and many future picks I wonder if they'd rather consolidate and take a guy they're really high on instead of trading out for more future picks. They're going to have to pay SGA, Chet and Williams soon and a whole slew of their other guys are potentially going to be too expensive to keep or are FAs. Like, maybe they'd move up for Edgecomb who they feel could replace Dort and not even take Ace in that instance? Or Maluach since Hartenstein could be gone after next season? Whatever the case #3 is where this draft starts as far as excitement goes.

Sixers have just as much depth as half the contenders do.

Maxey
McCain - Grimes
Ace - Oubre
PG- Edwards
Embiid - Drummond- Bona

Maybe Yabusele, plus pick 35. That is 10-11 deep.

Embiid might not return and if he does he's bound to miss a huge chunk of the season. George is always injured too. McCain has already had knee surgery. Grimes is a RFA and they might get outbid. Oubre and Drummond both have low $ player options, are they picking them up? Yabusele is a UFA. This is not good depth.

[HadAnEffectHere]

Before the draft, I thought Brandon Miller was a sociopath who could end up being as good as Brandon Ingram.

As of now, Brandon Miller is a sociopath who is probably going to end up as good as Brandon Ingram.

Brandon Miller as a fringe top 50 guy without the juice to be more than that was very easy to call actually...

11% (!!!) of Miller's shots last year were at the rim and he took less than one free throw for every six shots he took. He has very very very little juice.

[JMAC3]

Before the draft, I thought Brandon Miller was a sociopath who could end up being as good as Brandon Ingram.

As of now, Brandon Miller is a sociopath who is probably going to end up as good as Brandon Ingram.

Brandon Miller as a fringe top 50 guy without the juice to be more than that was very easy to call actually...

11% (!!!) of Miller's shots last year were at the rim and he took less than one free throw for every six shots he took. He has very very very little juice.

As opposed to which wings though?
Kawhi shot 13% of his shots at the rim last year.
Durant shot 9% of his shots at the rim last year.
Tatum shot 18% of his shots at the rim last year.
Lavine shot 16% of his shots at the rim last year.
Miller was 14% last year

Miller played with the worst spacing and supporting cast of this group and only played 25 games, so not a very large sample this year.

Also, Miller was at 3.6 apg in his 2nd year, trending to be a guy that could be a 4-6 assist player in his prime with this progression.

[HadAnEffectHere]

Before the draft, I thought Brandon Miller was a sociopath who could end up being as good as Brandon Ingram.

As of now, Brandon Miller is a sociopath who is probably going to end up as good as Brandon Ingram.

Brandon Miller as a fringe top 50 guy without the juice to be more than that was very easy to call actually...

11% (!!!) of Miller's shots last year were at the rim and he took less than one free throw for every six shots he took. He has very very very little juice.

As opposed to which wings though?
Kawhi shot 13% of his shots at the rim last year.
Durant shot 9% of his shots at the rim last year.
Tatum shot 18% of his shots at the rim last year.
Lavine shot 16% of his shots at the rim last year.
Miller was 14% last year

Miller played with the worst spacing and supporting cast of this group and only played 25 games, so not a very large sample this year.

Also, Miller was at 3.6 apg in his 2nd year, trending to be a guy that could be a 4-6 assist player in his prime with this progression.

Kawhi and Durant are physically shot and can't beat people off the dribble anymore because they're a billion years old. But even despite that, they still got to the line twice as frequently as Miller along with being much better shooters than Miller.

(Miller also was at 11% in 2024-2025, a decline from 14% in his rookie season)

[JMAC3]

Right anyways... Brandon Miller is projecting as an awesome player in the NBA, despite the holes that people were trying to poke in him as a draft prospect.

I think in general people freaking out over Ace Bailey averaging 1.3 assists on one of the worst teams in the country is going to look like a pretty bad reason to why he is a red flag and shouldn't get drafted highly. When the statistical norm for wings is like 2 assists a game and roughly the same number of turnovers per game. Again KD averaged 1.3 apg, don't think that people were on the right track that he was a generationally selfish and poor IQ player.

Just like I think people saying Bailey is super inefficient and his game won't work in the NBA, despite him being statistical on par with majority of scoring wings in the college ranks before.

[HadAnEffectHere]

Miller is absolutely not projecting to be an awesome NBA player, he's going to have a very Brandon Ingram like career of being fringe top 50 forever and this was what basically everyone expected of him.

Anyway, your stat comparisons are really awful because you're specifically focusing on eFG% and not TS% when Ace's inefficiency comes through most obviously in TS% because Ace never got to the line at all. He's a clear step below a lot of these guys when TS% is considered and above basically no one.

I also don't think he's even slightly close to a super freak athlete like Edwards, Brown, or Wiggins. Ace is not very coordinated.

[tmorgan]

All this talk about playmaking wings and how they all suck in college just reminds me of how awesome a prospect Flagg is.

[JMAC3]

Miller is absolutely not projecting to be an awesome NBA player, he's going to have a very Brandon Ingram like career of being fringe top 50 forever and this was what basically everyone expected of him.

Anyway, your stat comparisons are really awful because you're specifically focusing on eFG% and not TS% when Ace's inefficiency comes through most obviously in TS% because Ace never got to the line at all. He's a clear step below a lot of these guys when TS% is considered and above basically no one.

I also don't think he's even slightly close to a super freak athlete like Edwards, Brown, or Wiggins. Ace is not very coordinated.

Lol mkay, first Brandon Miller is in his 2nd season and already put up
83% Off epm
64% Def epm
83% Overall

That is basically peak Ingram, so yes if Miller doesn't improve at all from here on out sure he is Brandon Ingram. How many #2 picks are done improving after 2 seasons? Assuming a 2nd year player who averaged 21 ppg is not a good NBA player is just overthinking a very simple answer.

Please show me your statistical analysis and I will tell you it sucks too so we are even lol... again the point of it is that most young wings aren't good playmakers in college and even with Ace's "terrible shot selection" he is shooting the same percentage as elite wing prospects.

I really don't feel great betting against a #2 prospect with great measurables, great athletic testing, elite shot making and great defensive tools. Seems weird the haters are really digging in their heels over Ace averaging 1.3 assists instead of 2 assists per game. And upset with 3.8 fta when Tatum averaged 4.8 and PG averaged 4.6. Those are such minor differences for a guy with his prestige and natural talent.