Luka Doncic Part III

[arkuo]

Doncic I think should have comparable numbers to Ben Simmons on his first year. but that is due to a lot of touches he will get. In comparison, Dennis Smith's numbers arent that far off from CP3's rookie year too. So lets slow down and let the kids develop. It will take 2 to 3 years before they have it figured out.

[Shy Gorgeous-Al]

Doncic when it's all said and done will be in the HOF. Kings and Atlanta made a huge mistake. I'm not counting Phoenix because they had to take the consensus 1st overall pick, but the other two teams? they **** up.

Doncic will look huge in the NBA and noticebly quicker in time. He will be able to switch very effectively and take care of mismatches all over the floor, whether it is in the post or from behind the line. Smaller players will not be able to handle him. And for that to happen, he has to play the PG position surrounded by big lineups that would force the opposing team to put a PG on him.

He will annihilate the P&R game in the NBA if teams don't switch and if they do, I hope that he would have a center to dump it to make the defense pay, because I still don't feel like he is very good in taking advantages of switches, certainly not in the NBA. He will get there though and become excellent even in isolation, you see.

He is lucky to be selected by the Mavs. It's a huge thign for him...infinitely better than the rebuilding Hawks and the mystery that is the Kings.

Doncic just looks like a star.

Wow slow down buddy

It will take a good year for him to properly adapt. His strength/conditioning is nowhere near NBA level. He wont be able to play consistently through 82 games just because of fatigue. He has to improve a lot of things and will take good 2-3 years for him to do so...
So first we have to see him play, then we can talk about if he can even win ROY for starters

People don't realize how big and strong he is. I had my concerns mainly because of his inability to shake off defenders in isolaton in Euroleague competitions. But guess what, he is just much more of a fit in the NBA to do the things he is good at. 3 second rule, better shooters and spacing.

So yeah, it might take some time for him to transform into an excellent all-around player in the NBA. But he will immediately do things much better than his rookie counterparts.

There are 3 offensive ready players: Doncic, Young and Bagley. 3 of them can contribute immediately on the offensive end, altough two of them are not ready to defend in the NBA yet, and one of them may never even be able to... ever in Young. While Doncic is seen as a weak defender and slow of feet, people don't realize how much size is a factor in defense nowadays as far as being able to switch and rebound.

I don't know how good Doncic is going to be offensively right away, he might struggle attacking in isolation, but I do know that he will be the most NBA ready as far as being a two way player.

I will say that he does need time to rest his body. He is absolutely spent, so 82 games is long season to adjust to after playing for almost 2 years straight.

[arkuo]

I don't know how good Doncic is going to be offensively right away, he might struggle attacking in isolation, but I do know that he will be the most NBA ready as far as being a two way player.

Doncic may struggle on his first year the same way Steve Nash struggled in his rookie year. These guys need to get used to NBA speed and spacing. But once they get that nailed down, i expect Doncic to make plays like Steve Nash. That is making assists even with his eyes closed. LOL

[Shy Gorgeous-Al]

I don't know how good Doncic is going to be offensively right away, he might struggle attacking in isolation, but I do know that he will be the most NBA ready as far as being a two way player.

Doncic may struggle on his first year the same way Steve Nash struggled in his rookie year. These guys need to get used to NBA speed and spacing. But once they get that nailed down, i expect Doncic to make plays like Steve Nash. That is making assists even with his eyes closed. LOL

Nash played 4 years in College on a weak program. He wasn't ready...he needed time to adjust physically as he was weak and mentally.

Doncic played with grown ass men and he is big and strong. If the PnR will be presented to him with normal coverage(I.E no switch that will make him prone to step back 3's and the likes) then he will thrive...simple as that. You double him or hard hedge? he will make the right pass.

He will probably not look like a superstar or a star really right away on the floor, but his advanced stats will look phenomenal even as a rookie. I'm only worried about the fact that he hasn't rested yet.

[SportsGuy8]

I don't understand the fascination with DSJ, he's just another inefficient chucker who makes a couple freakishly athletic plays per game and everyone goes crazy. His efficiency isn't just bad, it's absolutely HORRENDOUS. Even vs. college competition it wasn't anything special.

People always naively expect that since a player is young, his decision making is going to miraculously get better, but that basically NEVER happens drastically, there are only some minor improvements.

In a way he's basically the opposite of Doncic, probably loved by those who hate Doncic and vice-versa.

The Mavs really should get rid of him while his value is still high.

There are plenty of great NBA players who had horribly inefficient rookie seasons. That's nothing new, and it's not a predictor of their future ceiling as NBA players. Durant is a prime example. You think OKC should have kicked Durant to the curb after his first season?

I'm not even the biggest DSJ fan, but he's exactly type of talent you allow growing pains to play out for to see if he can learn develop into something much better. The idea that decision making never drastically improves from a players rookie season, especially a point guard which is the hardest position to play is absolute crap. A rookie finds it difficult to be a good decision maker their rookie season because they are having to adapt to a level of play far above what they've ever experienced before, in a new environment with a new team and different coaching. If you're the PG as the primary ball handler every possession, it's doubly difficult because you can never hide. These factors flatten out by their second or third season, which are much better indicators of what they are going to be.

Durant's TS% was 52 during his rookie season, which is A LOT higher than 47 (one of the worst in the league, as I wrote in the next post). So many people **** on advanced stats, some rightfully so, but efficiency is the key to this game. If you're not scoring enough points per shot, you simply cannot win. Only exceptions are the players who are really good at other things besides scoring, which DSJ isn't.

As for the decision making, it's not like DSJ was just making rookie mistakes, it's much more than that, it's his overall game. His awareness (both offensively and defensively) is bad also, which is another key indicator, it's something that really cannot be taught much.

There's just too many of such PGs year after year after year, that people fall in love with because of their individual abilities, but never really end up truly contributing to winning, mostly because they're simply not efficient enough.

DSJ's TS% is probably going to jump from 47 to around 52-56, where it's going to stay for his career, but that's not nearly enough. Contending teams need their scorers at around 60, preferably above it.

[azizx]

I think it's clear the EL > NCAA but that shouldn't be the discussion anymore. It should be a sincere discussion about how Doncic's game translates to the NBA.

I must say I'm extremely disappointed that all rational evaluation of Doncic has gone out the window.
There are either Doncic stans who are absolutely 100% confident that Doncic will be a perennial All-NBA player. Hell, there are people who think he's the biggest talent since [insert player].
Then, there are the haters who think he's a definite bust. After the Mavs trading up, Doncic has a lot more to live up to now.

[Archx]

I think it's clear the EL > NCAA but that shouldn't be the discussion anymore. It should be a sincere discussion about how Doncic's game translates to the NBA.

I must say I'm extremely disappointed that all rational evaluation of Doncic has gone out the window.
There are either Doncic stans who are absolutely 100% confident that Doncic will be a perennial All-NBA player. Hell, there are people who think he's the biggest talent since [insert player].
Then, there are the haters who think he's a definite bust. After the Mavs trading up, Doncic has a lot more to live up to now.

Exactly. Funny thing is i think even 99% of us Slovenian supporters are rational enough to believe he has quite a way to go to live up to the hype and obviously we know he has to improve a lot. But some people who barely watched him play either think he is a total scrub or on the other hand think he is Harden 2.0 already... I hardly even engage in those conversations anymore, it's stupid, he is 19yo, he has to adapt to completely new life and playstyle. So i am very realistic what his chances are in the first year and in the years that follow.

[Nikson]

He might struggle a bit or a lot against PO type of defense. Some opponents will sure try to prove him he is just a rookie. If they are not top defenders they might burn themselves. If they try too much could easily make them look foolish. He will promptly apologize after. He is a nice guy.

But against regular season defense he will thrive, I am totally positive on this.

[batigol18]

Interesting read about first few hours immediately after beeing drafted...

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/23/sports/luka-doncic-draft-mavericks.html

[sam_I_am]

I think Doncic will be a rookie phenomenon even more so than Porzingas. He has issues defensively in isolation but he is a savvy team defender and a disruptor so he will look good at times on that end. He is going to get good numbers like Mitchell and he will be a regular on ESPN top plays. I suspect we will see a lot of his mom cheering for him too!

[Archx]

I think Doncic will be a rookie phenomenon even more so than Porzingas. He has issues defensively in isolation but he is a savvy team defender and a disruptor so he will look good at times on that end. He is going to get good numbers like Mitchell and he will be a regular on ESPN top plays. I suspect we will see a lot of his mom cheering for him too!

I am just scared that people have way too high expectations for him. Even he said that he has a lot of work to do before he steps on the NBA court.. I am not sure people have realistic expectations. If he can bring his NBA 3pt at a steady 35-37% then maybe, otherwise i don't think he will be as good as people say.
If he would be like Lonzo who had 7as 7reb then i would be thrilled because i know Luka is a way better shooter than Lonzo but Lonzo is faster than Luka so... we'll have to wait and see how it goes.

[Johnny Firpo]

So happy with Luka, and cannot wait for the season to start. I think his floor is very high, but I wouldn't want to predict his numbers. I hope he can strengthen his core by the time the training camp starts, and work on his balance, because right now he is putting a little too much stress on his knees for my liking, and he has some weird knee tendencies. If you want to become great, you have to stay healthy, so that's the most important thing right now, doing some injury prevention work.

[Archx]

So happy with Luka, and cannot wait for the season to start. I think his floor is very high, but I wouldn't want to predict his numbers. I hope he can strengthen his core by the time the training camp starts, and work on his balance, because right now he is putting a little too much stress on his knees for my liking, and he has some weird knee tendencies. If you want to become great, you have to stay healthy, so that's the most important thing right now, doing some injury prevention work.

You are right. Even if you get injured the stronger you already are the faster you heal. And i think they already said in press conference that they have some plans for his condition and strength training plus i believe people said DAL NBA trainers are one of the best. So fingers crossed he bulks up and gets stronger sooner than later.

[burek3]

Haven't heard anything from peja_the_legend since the first MVP title announcement a month ago.

I wonder...

[Shy Gorgeous-Al]

Just can't wait to see him play. He has an aura about him.

[Mirotic12]

I am just scared that people have way too high expectations for him. Even he said that he has a lot of work to do before he steps on the NBA court.. I am not sure people have realistic expectations. If he can bring his NBA 3pt at a steady 35-37% then maybe, otherwise i don't think he will be as good as people say.
If he would be like Lonzo who had 7as 7reb then i would be thrilled because i know Luka is a way better shooter than Lonzo but Lonzo is faster than Luka so... we'll have to wait and see how it goes.

One of the best NCAA coaches analyzed game film of Doncic and he said something like (paraphrasing): "Doncic is vastly superior and way better right now than Lonzo Ball is, not just when Lonzo was in college, but Lonzo right now. He's basically much better than Lonzo currently is at all aspects of basketball."

So I think you need to raise your expectations....you are seriously underrating the level Doncic is at.

[Oscar9992]

If his career goes ideal he is gonna be 25-7-7 player;

If his career gonna get average for his talent stats gonna look like: (18-20)-5-5;

If his career gonna be dissapointing, he is gonna be 13-4-4 player.

He is gonna be descent player anywany.

[Archx]

I am just scared that people have way too high expectations for him. Even he said that he has a lot of work to do before he steps on the NBA court.. I am not sure people have realistic expectations. If he can bring his NBA 3pt at a steady 35-37% then maybe, otherwise i don't think he will be as good as people say.
If he would be like Lonzo who had 7as 7reb then i would be thrilled because i know Luka is a way better shooter than Lonzo but Lonzo is faster than Luka so... we'll have to wait and see how it goes.

One of the best NCAA coaches analyzed game film of Doncic and he said something like (paraphrasing): "Doncic is vastly superior and way better right now than Lonzo Ball is, not just when Lonzo was in college, but Lonzo right now. He's basically much better than Lonzo currently is at all aspects of basketball."

So I think you need to raise your expectations....you are seriously underrating the level Doncic is at.

I don't agree with that. Lonzo is a good defender and also a good playmaker with great vision. His major problem is shooting and being able to stay healthy. If he can improve his shot he could easily become 20-7-7 guy. Also Lonzo is quite fast and athletic.

Luka has a lot of training ahead of him in order to achieve a decent NBA speed and quickness. I rather have lower expectations than being disappointed later on. Also i am realistic not like other people who already crowned him as the next HOF or a superstar lol...Thats just silly...

[Shy Gorgeous-Al]

I am just scared that people have way too high expectations for him. Even he said that he has a lot of work to do before he steps on the NBA court.. I am not sure people have realistic expectations. If he can bring his NBA 3pt at a steady 35-37% then maybe, otherwise i don't think he will be as good as people say.
If he would be like Lonzo who had 7as 7reb then i would be thrilled because i know Luka is a way better shooter than Lonzo but Lonzo is faster than Luka so... we'll have to wait and see how it goes.

One of the best NCAA coaches analyzed game film of Doncic and he said something like (paraphrasing): "Doncic is vastly superior and way better right now than Lonzo Ball is, not just when Lonzo was in college, but Lonzo right now. He's basically much better than Lonzo currently is at all aspects of basketball."

So I think you need to raise your expectations....you are seriously underrating the level Doncic is at.

I don't agree with that. Lonzo is a good defender and also a good playmaker with great vision. His major problem is shooting and being able to stay healthy. If he can improve his shot he could easily become 20-7-7 guy. Also Lonzo is quite fast and athletic.

Luka has a lot of training ahead of him in order to achieve a decent NBA speed and quickness. I rather have lower expectations than being disappointed later on. Also i am realistic not like other people who already crowned him as the next HOF or a superstar lol...Thats just silly...

Doncic will be in the HOF when it's all said and done.

If you can't see it then you are just not a good talent evaluator.

Doncic is on anotherl level as a prospect...sorry 2 levels.

Doncic is the most NBA ready rookie, and it's not close. Just wait till he fixes his diet and gets on the juice.

[J_T]

I am just scared that people have way too high expectations for him. Even he said that he has a lot of work to do before he steps on the NBA court.. I am not sure people have realistic expectations. If he can bring his NBA 3pt at a steady 35-37% then maybe, otherwise i don't think he will be as good as people say.
If he would be like Lonzo who had 7as 7reb then i would be thrilled because i know Luka is a way better shooter than Lonzo but Lonzo is faster than Luka so... we'll have to wait and see how it goes.

One of the best NCAA coaches analyzed game film of Doncic and he said something like (paraphrasing): "Doncic is vastly superior and way better right now than Lonzo Ball is, not just when Lonzo was in college, but Lonzo right now. He's basically much better than Lonzo currently is at all aspects of basketball."

So I think you need to raise your expectations....you are seriously underrating the level Doncic is at.

I don't agree with that. Lonzo is a good defender and also a good playmaker with great vision. His major problem is shooting and being able to stay healthy. If he can improve his shot he could easily become 20-7-7 guy. Also Lonzo is quite fast and athletic.

Luka has a lot of training ahead of him in order to achieve a decent NBA speed and quickness. I rather have lower expectations than being disappointed later on. Also i am realistic not like other people who already crowned him as the next HOF or a superstar lol...Thats just silly...

I think that you are too scared of being labeled as a Euro homer or Slovenian homer. Also having lower expectation just for the sake of not being disappointed is hardly a valid reason to have those lower expectations. I want to have realistic expectations and I am not afraid to be disappointed.

There is no way that Doncic is not better than Lonzo Ball is right now. I think that's a reasonable opinion to have.