Okafor or Towns? Which center is the better pick?

Post #341 » by **Marcus** » Sat Mar 21, 2015 4:50 am

acrossthecourt wrote:Because right now the number one pick keeps getting compared to Big Country Reeves.

that's new

HeartBreakKid · Post #342 » by **HeartBreakKid** » Sat Mar 21, 2015 5:04 am

I agree, the idea that Okafor is a "can't miss" talent is a little silly, I mean have the standards dropped that low for centers? Can't miss guy would describe guys like Duncan and Ewing.

E-Balla · Post #343 » by **E-Balla** » Sat Mar 21, 2015 5:13 am

acrossthecourt wrote:I'm not a sucker for trends. These are entirely different issues. Your logic train went off the tracks a while ago.

The game has changed. Defense has changed immensely due to rule and style changes. This is not being a "sucker" for changes ... this is realizing it's not the 1970's anymore and there are more valuable things a team can do.

Explain why Shaq, Hakeem, and Duncan were so great offensively? Maybe because having a low post threat is a great thing.

Dirk is a prime counterexample. You're talking about high post offense, not low post, with a PF who can space the floor. That's more valuable than low post offense now! From big men at least.

Dirk was always most effective and deadly as a high post option. Sure he can spread the floor too but his high post jumper was unstoppable and that's what made him so great. You're telling me someone with a shot that effective but 5-10 feet closer to the basket isn't going to be great? Come on man.

This is the kind of thinking that made Mark Jackson go to post/iso basketball a ton last year. That was not ideal. Also, it's not really a trend. Even historically speaking it's better for an offense to move the ball outside or through a center who passes a ton, from Wilt finding success when he scored less to Portland's success with Walton to Olajuwon's team success when he started passing more, etc.

And again I'm 99% sure you don't really watch Okafor. I'll say it one more time: JAHLIL IS A VERY GOOD PASSER ALREADY. DUKE IS THE SECOND BEST OFFENSE IN THE COUNTRY RUNNING NEARLY HALF THEIR HALFCOURT PLAYS THROUGH HIM AND EARLIER IN THE SEASON (20 games in) THEY WERE AVERAGING 1.4 PPP OFF JAHLIL OKAFOR POSTUPS. That's 1.4 PPP on halfcourt possessions. This isn't Al Jefferson or Eddy Curry we're talking about this is the most offensively gifted freshman C ever.

People keep saying he *can* learn to pass better, he *can* get in better shape, he *can* play defense -- this is supposed to be a number one pick and a lock. Hey, Leonard and Bledsoe and other non-shooters learned to shoot. How about we ignore any shooting problems a guy has? Marc Gasol slimmed down and won DPOTY. Should we all ignore problems from young kids being fat/out of shape? No, that's all ridiculous.

Or maybe we are smart enough to notice that even if he doesn't improve his defense and conditioning he will most likely be the best offensive big in the league one day. And no one says he can improve his passing because anyone that watches games and doesn't just mimic things they heard about him prior to the season knows he can pass.

It's not about a guy not being able to make those changes and make a leap when they hit the NBA. It's more about probability and how it's better to bet on a guy who actually has those skillsets. Because right now the number one pick has lousy defense and he keeps getting compared to Al Jefferson and Big Country Reeves. That's not selling me. He could make vast improvements, sure, and so can everyone else.

(Hey, but at least he has that huge wingspan.)

Big Country? Who's ever made that comparison before?

I don't think talking about players you've never seen makes sense and your posts never refer to anything you've personally seen about Jahlil. It sounds like you just happen to hate the comparisons you are hearing from his haters so you don't like him.

Zeitgeister · Post #344 » by **Zeitgeister** » Sat Mar 21, 2015 5:18 am

The Big Country comp is dumb for Okafor, it comes from Layne Vashro and it is 100% based on statistical comparisons. Basically people are worried about Okafor because he is really difficult to come up with a good comparison for. A big reason for that is because he is uncommonly gifted in the low post for his age but his shooting, rebounding and defense aren't impressive so people are worried about him.

E-Balla · Post #345 » by **E-Balla** » Sat Mar 21, 2015 5:19 am

HeartBreakKid wrote:I agree, the idea that Okafor is a "can't miss" talent is a little silly, I mean have the standards dropped that low for centers? Can't miss guy would describe guys like Duncan and Ewing.

Duncan and Ewing were seniors coming out and weren't considered can't miss until they were 20. Jahlil started the season at 18. The standard hasn't dropped we are just dealing with younger players.

HeartBreakKid · Post #346 » by **HeartBreakKid** » Sat Mar 21, 2015 5:23 am

E-Balla wrote:
HeartBreakKid wrote:I agree, the idea that Okafor is a "can't miss" talent is a little silly, I mean have the standards dropped that low for centers? Can't miss guy would describe guys like Duncan and Ewing.

Duncan and Ewing were seniors coming out and weren't considered can't miss until they were 20. Jahlil started the season at 18. The standard hasn't dropped we are just dealing with younger players.

I'm aware those players were older, but even in this era Okafor is not really a generational prospect. Davis was also a center who was the same age and he was a much better prospect, and was certainly a can't miss type of player. Oden and Durant a few years before that.

I just don't think it is that crazy to pass up on him, I think he has some valid question marks and this draft is pretty damn talented. I would probably take Okafor over Wiggins and Parker last year, and those guys were very excellent prospects in their own right. That's probably the same tier I'd put him in, the same tier as Wiggins and Parker - but someone like a Joel Embiid I would have drafted over Okafor.

Post #347 » by **Marcus** » Sat Mar 21, 2015 5:39 am

E-Balla wrote:
HeartBreakKid wrote:I agree, the idea that Okafor is a "can't miss" talent is a little silly, I mean have the standards dropped that low for centers? Can't miss guy would describe guys like Duncan and Ewing.

Duncan and Ewing were seniors coming out and weren't considered can't miss until they were 20. Jahlil started the season at 18. The standard hasn't dropped we are just dealing with younger players.

I read the article in your sig. Great write up on all 4 players.

E-Balla · Post #348 » by **E-Balla** » Sat Mar 21, 2015 6:11 am

HeartBreakKid wrote:
E-Balla wrote:
HeartBreakKid wrote:I agree, the idea that Okafor is a "can't miss" talent is a little silly, I mean have the standards dropped that low for centers? Can't miss guy would describe guys like Duncan and Ewing.

Duncan and Ewing were seniors coming out and weren't considered can't miss until they were 20. Jahlil started the season at 18. The standard hasn't dropped we are just dealing with younger players.

I'm aware those players were older, but even in this era Okafor is not really a generational prospect. Davis was also a center who was the same age and he was a much better prospect, and was certainly a can't miss type of player. Oden and Durant a few years before that.

I just don't think it is that crazy to pass up on him, I think he has some valid question marks and this draft is pretty damn talented. I would probably take Okafor over Wiggins and Parker last year, and those guys were very excellent prospects in their own right. That's probably the same tier I'd put him in, the same tier as Wiggins and Parker - but someone like a Joel Embiid I would have drafted over Okafor.

I can't agree with that. Okafor is so much better offensively I don't even think its close. Okafor has better feet, strength, touch, and he has a rudimentary J (he's 36% from around 9-12 feet). defensively Embiid is a monster but he still fouls a ton. He's pretty raw on both ends.

Justwar · Post #349 » by **Justwar** » Sat Mar 21, 2015 8:25 am

I don't think your giving towns credit on offense eballa the gap is closing pretty fast. Towns is super skilled

E-Balla · Post #350 » by **E-Balla** » Sat Mar 21, 2015 3:10 pm

Justwar wrote:I don't think your giving towns credit on offense eballa the gap is closing pretty fast. Towns is super skilled

I love Towns offensively actually. His jumper is better than most NBA bigs already and athletically he's amazing on the move. In the PNR he might end up being the best target next to Davis in 3-5 years. But in the post he's inefficient (.848 PPP) despite not really playing any good bigs (I mean his biggest games are against teams like Georgia and Auburn with no rotation players taller than 6-8... Kentucky has 5/6 guys bigger than their biggest players) and he hasn't scored 10+ on 50%+ shooting on any 6-10 Cs outside of Jon Horford - a player he played in practice back in high school.

In the NBA early on he'll be a PNR target and garbage man early on because on the block he's only good against 6-8 guys. He can't get deep position against NBA sized bigs and athletically he's not built for the paint (he has around an average standing reach and standing vert).

Meanwhile Okafor has shot under 50% only 4 times and he's automatic inside of 10 feet. I've also seen Jahlil score 20 against a team that wasn't doubling or tripling constantly - even the ones with NBA sized bigs guarding him like Virginia Tech and Boston College, his two career highs. I don't think the two are close offensively and offensively Towns is helped out by playing in the SEC (who has no big teams outside of Arkansas, Florida, and LSU and two of those teams played him well) and playing alongside the next two biggest players in his conference.

DickGrayson · Post #351 » by **DickGrayson** » Sat Mar 21, 2015 4:26 pm

What does Okafor do outside of 10 feet?

E-Balla · Post #352 » by **E-Balla** » Sat Mar 21, 2015 5:19 pm

DickGrayson wrote:What does Okafor do outside of 10 feet?

The same thing Shaq did.

kbitboc · Post #353 » by **kbitboc** » Sat Mar 21, 2015 8:59 pm

If it was last year's Joel Embiid with no health concerns whatsoever, would he be considered a better prospect than Okafor and Towns? Would he be the consensus higher pick?

E-Balla · Post #354 » by **E-Balla** » Sat Mar 21, 2015 11:24 pm

kbitboc wrote:If it was last year's Joel Embiid with no health concerns whatsoever, would he be considered a better prospect than Okafor and Towns? Would he be the consensus higher pick?

Not to me. Physically he's better than both of these guys healthy (aka the reason why most others would take him) but Towns and Jahlil already have skills that will be elite at the NBA level (Towns' shooting and Jahlil's low post game) and as much as I like Embiid he doesn't (mostly a result of him being new to the sport). Embiid's bust potential is just too high compared to those guys and both of those guys are potential All-Pros and HOFers.

sportscrazy · Post #355 » by **sportscrazy** » Sat Mar 21, 2015 11:54 pm

It's tough because Okafor is one of the best athletic low post scorers college has seen recently, but isn't as well rounded a star as Towns. Towns is a solid defender with a jump shot. I've seen him compared to a taller Al Horford with a deeper jump-shot. If that's the case, he will be right below Cousins/Anthony Davis for young centers in his prime. I really think in their prime, they will both (Okafor and Towns) be among top ten big men with Cousins/Davis/Drummond/etc.

Post #356 » by **Worm Guts** » Sun Mar 22, 2015 1:44 am

Has there been a been a better low post scoring prospect than Okafor since Duncan?

HeartBreakKid · Post #357 » by **HeartBreakKid** » Sun Mar 22, 2015 1:46 am

Yao Ming

djphan · Post #358 » by **djphan** » Sun Mar 22, 2015 3:45 am

okafor's scoring should not be a question mark... at worst he's like pekovic who is wildly efficient just bullying people....

okafor has the edge in low post scoring.. and i think all the okafor fans are so enamored with it that they turn a blind eye towards all other aspects of his game... not being able to defend like a good defensive center is a huge drag for a nba defense if not the biggest drag... just look at what utah and now okc have to deal with in kanter....

he would probably would have an edge on an all defense no offense type of a center... but towns is not that type of prospect.. the presence of having someone so dominant as okafor on offense has diminished how great towns has been on that end... towns would be the best freshman center on offense since duncan if it wasn't for okafor... this just doesn't happen that often...

where towns has a huge edge is on defense... and really it's not close.. you can say okafor can be a good defender but there is zero evidence to suggest that he will be other than wishful thinking... if you wanna go by the numbers or if you want to go by the eye test... there just hasn't been a defender this bad turning into something even decent...

Zeitgeister · Post #359 » by **Zeitgeister** » Sun Mar 22, 2015 4:11 am

djphan wrote:
where towns has a huge edge is on defense... and really it's not close.. you can say okafor can be a good defender but there is zero evidence to suggest that he will be other than wishful thinking... if you wanna go by the numbers or if you want to go by the eye test... there just hasn't been a defender this bad turning into something even decent...

It's more than "wishful thinking", he has the physical tools to be a good defender. If you don't have those, it's very difficult to be good.

djphan · Post #360 » by **djphan** » Sun Mar 22, 2015 4:20 am

oh he has tools... nevermind... close the thread....