Reed Sheppard and Rob Dillingham - 2024 NBA Draft

[RookieStar]

Just a question here, will any of your outlook change if you find out Reed is actually just around 6'1?

There's a UK forum that said he kinda met Reed and said he isn't that much taller than him which is around 6'1

[FarBeyondDriven]

no surprise that the Kentucky guards were outscored by the Arkansas guards by a large margin. Besides wide open threes I'm just not seeing Sheppard being able to do much offensively. That's okay as a role player in the NBA. He'll definitely be able to run an NBA offense on a 2nd unit. Dillingham looks like he's going to make a wonderful tank commander as a starter or instant offense for an offensively starved 2nd unit even on a contender. I'm still struggling to justify lottery picks but who knows at this point who will declare. They might be by default.

[HadAnEffectHere]

Just a question here, will any of your outlook change if you find out Reed is actually just around 6'1?

There's a UK forum that said he kinda met Reed and said he isn't that much taller than him which is around 6'1

I mean... He measured at 6'1" without shoes at Kentucky's pro day?

Measured 6-foot-2 in shoes with a 6-3 wingspan and 187 pounds at Kentucky’s pro day, Sheppard’s dimensions aren’t going to blow teams away, which is why making the transition to full-time point guard will likely be important to maximize his draft stock down the road. Can he attack pick-and-roll switches when teams force him to be a one-on-one scorer? Does he have the size and length to slow down elite-level guards consistently? How will his ballhandling hold up when he’s the focal point of an opposing scouting report?

https://www.nationofblue.com/espn-says-reed-sheppard-has-been-the-most-surprising-freshman-in-college-basketball/

Would be pretty expected that he's only 6'1"

[RookieStar]

Just a question here, will any of your outlook change if you find out Reed is actually just around 6'1?

There's a UK forum that said he kinda met Reed and said he isn't that much taller than him which is around 6'1

I mean... He measured at 6'1" without shoes at Kentucky's pro day?

Measured 6-foot-2 in shoes with a 6-3 wingspan and 187 pounds at Kentucky’s pro day, Sheppard’s dimensions aren’t going to blow teams away, which is why making the transition to full-time point guard will likely be important to maximize his draft stock down the road. Can he attack pick-and-roll switches when teams force him to be a one-on-one scorer? Does he have the size and length to slow down elite-level guards consistently? How will his ballhandling hold up when he’s the focal point of an opposing scouting report?

https://www.nationofblue.com/espn-says-reed-sheppard-has-been-the-most-surprising-freshman-in-college-basketball/

Would be pretty expected that he's only 6'1"

Gotcha. Im just asking here cuz a lot of teams posters are assuming he is 6'3 like Herro or something.

I

[Hal14]

no surprise that the Kentucky guards were outscored by the Arkansas guards by a large margin. Besides wide open threes I'm just not seeing Sheppard being able to do much offensively. That's okay as a role player in the NBA. He'll definitely be able to run an NBA offense on a 2nd unit. Dillingham looks like he's going to make a wonderful tank commander as a starter or instant offense for an offensively starved 2nd unit even on a contender. I'm still struggling to justify lottery picks but who knows at this point who will declare. They might be by default.

We get it. You don't think they're lottery picks. You've posted basically this same thing ^ like 20 times now in this thread. We get it. No need to keep repeating yourself after every Kentucky game.

[JMAC3]

no surprise that the Kentucky guards were outscored by the Arkansas guards by a large margin. Besides wide open threes I'm just not seeing Sheppard being able to do much offensively. That's okay as a role player in the NBA. He'll definitely be able to run an NBA offense on a 2nd unit. Dillingham looks like he's going to make a wonderful tank commander as a starter or instant offense for an offensively starved 2nd unit even on a contender. I'm still struggling to justify lottery picks but who knows at this point who will declare. They might be by default.

We get it. You don't think they're lottery picks. You've posted basically this same thing ^ like 20 times now in this thread. We get it. No need to keep repeating yourself.

To be fair Battle is a hooper. Much better than his 13.5 ppg on a balanced Arkansas team would suggest. Sheppard was super quiet, if you didn't know he was a lottery pick you could have watched that game and said he was like the 7th or 8th best player on Kentucky very easily.

Side note: Thiero feels like he might be a break out guy next year for Kentucky.

[JMAC3]

Real comparison. What is the difference between Braden Smith and Reed Sheppard?

Smith is a sophomore scoring 13.1 ppg, 7.1 apg. 5.9 rpg on the #2 team in the country
6 ft/180 lbs was all freshman in Big 10 last year.
Splits 47/44/82
36.4%
3 fta per 40

Reed is a freshman scoring 12.4 ppg, 4.3 apg, 4.2 rpg on #18th team in the country
6-2 187 lbs
splits 53.5/51.7/83.6
3 fta per 40
2.9 fta per 40

Yes Reed is 1 yr younger and he is shooting better from 3 (probably not realistic to keep it up), but Smith is clearly a great shooter as well. 1 is getting top 5 pick consideration and the other isn't even on draft boards.

[clyde21]

Real comparison. What is the difference between Braden Smith and Reed Sheppard?

Smith is a sophomore scoring 13.1 ppg, 7.1 apg. 5.9 rpg on the #2 team in the country
6 ft/180 lbs was all freshman in Big 10 last year.
Splits 47/44/82
36.4%
3 fta per 40

Reed is a freshman scoring 12.4 ppg, 4.3 apg, 4.2 rpg on #18th team in the country
6-2 187 lbs
splits 53.5/51.7/83.6
3 fta per 40
2.9 fta per 40

Yes Reed is 1 yr younger and he is shooting better from 3 (probably not realistic to keep it up), but Smith is clearly a great shooter as well. 1 is getting top 5 pick consideration and the other isn't even on draft boards.

well, for starters, Reed is 6-3 and Braden is 6-0, also Reed has double the steals per 100 possessions and like 4x the blocks, clearly a better defender.

[The Moose]

Reed is having one of the most efficient seasons for a high major underclassman in over 15 years.

There are only 4 other guys since 2008 who have had Reed's USG (18%) while being as efficient as him (69% TS).

The other 4 guys are Zion, Sophomore Mark Williams and Udoka Azubuike, and freshman Thomas Bryant, so 3 centers and Zion.

He is currently one of only 5 high major NCAA players since 2008 with 120+ 3PTA and 50+% 3pt.

Add on his 2:1 AST/TO ratio as an underclassman, signal of very high feel. Since 2016 the only freshman drafted in the lottery with a 2:1 AST/TO ratio are Lonzo, Ja and Cason Wallace. If you include sophomores, the list expands to Hali, Franz and Vassell.

And then on top of the offensive production, currently only 2 other high major players since 2008 match his BLK 2.5%+ and STL 4.9%+ rate, Gary Payton II and Matisse Thybulle.

Currently 9th in BPM for freshman since 2008, behind Zion, AD, Beasley, Love, Chet, KAT, Mobley and Harden.

Braden Smith is a sophomore guard listed 6'0, there has been 2 players drafted from the NCAA since 2019 that were listed at 6'0 or shorter. The last time an NCAA player listed at 6'0 or shorter was drafted in the first round was 2013, over 10 years ago.

He is having a very good season but is still behind Reed basically across the board offensively aside from assists, but also has the luxury of passing to the most dominant interior scoring big man in the NCAA for decades. And then defensively, Reed's block rate is 7x higher, and steal rate 1.5x higher.

One is freshman having one of the most productive all around seasons in recent high major history, the other is a sophomore having a a very good season but he is actually basically an undraftable size and also gets to play off the most dominant offensive NCAA big in many, many years

[MemphisX]

Real comparison. What is the difference between Braden Smith and Reed Sheppard?

Smith is a sophomore scoring 13.1 ppg, 7.1 apg. 5.9 rpg on the #2 team in the country
6 ft/180 lbs was all freshman in Big 10 last year.
Splits 47/44/82
36.4%
3 fta per 40

Reed is a freshman scoring 12.4 ppg, 4.3 apg, 4.2 rpg on #18th team in the country
6-2 187 lbs
splits 53.5/51.7/83.6
3 fta per 40
2.9 fta per 40

Yes Reed is 1 yr younger and he is shooting better from 3 (probably not realistic to keep it up), but Smith is clearly a great shooter as well. 1 is getting top 5 pick consideration and the other isn't even on draft boards.

Why do y'all keep doing this? I can't even take it seriously.

[JMAC3]

Real comparison. What is the difference between Braden Smith and Reed Sheppard?

Smith is a sophomore scoring 13.1 ppg, 7.1 apg. 5.9 rpg on the #2 team in the country
6 ft/180 lbs was all freshman in Big 10 last year.
Splits 47/44/82
36.4%
3 fta per 40

Reed is a freshman scoring 12.4 ppg, 4.3 apg, 4.2 rpg on #18th team in the country
6-2 187 lbs
splits 53.5/51.7/83.6
3 fta per 40
2.9 fta per 40

Yes Reed is 1 yr younger and he is shooting better from 3 (probably not realistic to keep it up), but Smith is clearly a great shooter as well. 1 is getting top 5 pick consideration and the other isn't even on draft boards.

well, for starters, Reed is 6-3 and Braden is 6-0, also Reed has double the steals per 100 possessions and like 4x the blocks, clearly a better defender.

Yes, Reed has a historic steal rate, 3pt% but we should know these are outliers. We know they are going to come down and once they do they will be more in line with Smith. Smith is averaging 1.7 steals per game (4th in bigten) Reed is at 2.6 steals. Smith is shooting 44% from 3. Do we really think Sheppard is a significantly better shooter than him?

I really doubt there are 3 inches of height difference between these guys. Maybe I am way wrong. This isn't even me saying Reed isn't better but is he so much better that one should be a top 5 pick and the other completely undrafted? Smith is 2nd leading rebounder on Purdue with 6 per game and averages over 7 apg. Braden Smith is 4.6 win shares vs 4.1 for Reed.

He has had big games too 27 vs Alabama this year, 26 vs Arizona.

[FarBeyondDriven]

Mail it to Scoot

The only reason to bring up Scoot here is because once again, we are trying to compare a guard to a generational talent to probably be let down again. Not every single prospect is a 10x allstar, but apparently if you say otherwise it's absurd.

I don't see anyone claiming Dill will be a 10x all-star. Trae is only a 3x all-star, with 1 of those all-star selections being an injury replacement.

I also just said a better comp for Rob is Garland, who is only a 1x all-star.

Sure, Dill could end up being closer to Quickley than he is to Trae. But Trae would go no. 1 in the 2024 draft *easily*. And Quickley would go like 8th in a 2020 re-draft. Considering how bad the 2024 draft is, I don't think top 5 is that crazy for Dill..especially since Dill posted better freshman season numbers than Quickley across the board..

Regardless of whether he ends up being closer to Steph, Trae, Lamelo, Quickley, Maxey, Kyrie, Dame, Kemba, Garland, Bones Hyland, Lou Williams or Terry Rozier, the bottom line is this archetype hits way more often than it misses..and most of these guys would go top 5 in the weak 2024 draft class.

We get it. You think this is a weak draft class. You've posted basically this same thing like 20 times now on this board. We get it. No need to keep repeating yourself every time you discuss player rankings and this draft class.

[EvanZ]

Real comparison. What is the difference between Braden Smith and Reed Sheppard?

Smith is a sophomore scoring 13.1 ppg, 7.1 apg. 5.9 rpg on the #2 team in the country
6 ft/180 lbs was all freshman in Big 10 last year.
Splits 47/44/82
36.4%
3 fta per 40

Reed is a freshman scoring 12.4 ppg, 4.3 apg, 4.2 rpg on #18th team in the country
6-2 187 lbs
splits 53.5/51.7/83.6
3 fta per 40
2.9 fta per 40

Yes Reed is 1 yr younger and he is shooting better from 3 (probably not realistic to keep it up), but Smith is clearly a great shooter as well. 1 is getting top 5 pick consideration and the other isn't even on draft boards.

well, for starters, Reed is 6-3 and Braden is 6-0, also Reed has double the steals per 100 possessions and like 4x the blocks, clearly a better defender.

Yes, Reed has a historic steal rate, 3pt% but we should know these are outliers. We know they are going to come down and once they do they will be more in line with Smith. Smith is averaging 1.7 steals per game (4th in bigten) Reed is at 2.6 steals. Smith is shooting 44% from 3. Do we really think Sheppard is a significantly better shooter than him?

I really doubt there are 3 inches of height difference between these guys. Maybe I am way wrong. This isn't even me saying Reed isn't better but is he so much better that one should be a top 5 pick and the other completely undrafted? Smith is 2nd leading rebounder on Purdue with 6 per game and averages over 7 apg. Braden Smith is 4.6 win shares vs 4.1 for Reed.

He has had big games too 27 vs Alabama this year, 26 vs Arizona.

Funny how JMAC knows what outliers are when it suits his argument.

[JMAC3]

well, for starters, Reed is 6-3 and Braden is 6-0, also Reed has double the steals per 100 possessions and like 4x the blocks, clearly a better defender.

Yes, Reed has a historic steal rate, 3pt% but we should know these are outliers. We know they are going to come down and once they do they will be more in line with Smith. Smith is averaging 1.7 steals per game (4th in bigten) Reed is at 2.6 steals. Smith is shooting 44% from 3. Do we really think Sheppard is a significantly better shooter than him?

I really doubt there are 3 inches of height difference between these guys. Maybe I am way wrong. This isn't even me saying Reed isn't better but is he so much better that one should be a top 5 pick and the other completely undrafted? Smith is 2nd leading rebounder on Purdue with 6 per game and averages over 7 apg. Braden Smith is 4.6 win shares vs 4.1 for Reed.

He has had big games too 27 vs Alabama this year, 26 vs Arizona.

Funny how JMAC knows what outliers are when it suits his argument.

Please provide some context here. What argument have I made where I chose to ignore historically good outlier stats?

[EvanZ]

Yes, Reed has a historic steal rate, 3pt% but we should know these are outliers. We know they are going to come down and once they do they will be more in line with Smith. Smith is averaging 1.7 steals per game (4th in bigten) Reed is at 2.6 steals. Smith is shooting 44% from 3. Do we really think Sheppard is a significantly better shooter than him?

I really doubt there are 3 inches of height difference between these guys. Maybe I am way wrong. This isn't even me saying Reed isn't better but is he so much better that one should be a top 5 pick and the other completely undrafted? Smith is 2nd leading rebounder on Purdue with 6 per game and averages over 7 apg. Braden Smith is 4.6 win shares vs 4.1 for Reed.

He has had big games too 27 vs Alabama this year, 26 vs Arizona.

Funny how JMAC knows what outliers are when it suits his argument.

Please provide some context here. What argument have I made where I chose to ignore historically good outlier stats?

Uh, like, literally the comment you just made before this one.

[JMAC3]

Funny how JMAC knows what outliers are when it suits his argument.

Please provide some context here. What argument have I made where I chose to ignore historically good outlier stats?

Uh, like, literally the comment you just made before this one.

Seems like you are referencing something else here, but I will let it die and let you continue to take baseless jabs at me. You hold the record for commenting on my posts without adding any basketball related opinions, so keep up the great work.

I will continue to point out I think Reeds 3pt% is being overrated. Whether he shoots 42 or 47 or 55% from three this year it has a 95% chance to be more in the high 30s, low40s for his NBA career and nowhere near these numbers. People get way too enamored by the % when guys like JJ Redick shooting 40% on 9+ attempts is significantly more impressive than Reed's shooting output.

[EvanZ]

Is anyone actually saying he's a 50% 3pt shooter in the NBA? That would be wild and not at all something I'd ever say.

But given that he only has 120 attempts it gives me more confidence in his shooting if he's at 50% than if he were at 40%...we also see that he's above 80% from the line. The thing is he doesn't have any shooting range that isn't a positive signal. 67% at the rim on only 8% assisted. 44% on mid-range jumpers (12.5% assisted). Everything we have on him points in the same direction.

Also, and I know I'm showing my age here but I watched and was a big fan of his dad Jeff when he was at Kentucky. He was a very good shooter. Now, I am not suggesting everyone should use this as some genetic "proof" that Reed is a chip off the old block...but I'm not not saying that either. For me, at least, I think it's pretty reasonable to assume Reed is simply a good to maybe very good shooter at the next level.

[clyde21]

Real comparison. What is the difference between Braden Smith and Reed Sheppard?

Smith is a sophomore scoring 13.1 ppg, 7.1 apg. 5.9 rpg on the #2 team in the country
6 ft/180 lbs was all freshman in Big 10 last year.
Splits 47/44/82
36.4%
3 fta per 40

Reed is a freshman scoring 12.4 ppg, 4.3 apg, 4.2 rpg on #18th team in the country
6-2 187 lbs
splits 53.5/51.7/83.6
3 fta per 40
2.9 fta per 40

Yes Reed is 1 yr younger and he is shooting better from 3 (probably not realistic to keep it up), but Smith is clearly a great shooter as well. 1 is getting top 5 pick consideration and the other isn't even on draft boards.

well, for starters, Reed is 6-3 and Braden is 6-0, also Reed has double the steals per 100 possessions and like 4x the blocks, clearly a better defender.

Yes, Reed has a historic steal rate, 3pt% but we should know these are outliers. We know they are going to come down and once they do they will be more in line with Smith. Smith is averaging 1.7 steals per game (4th in bigten) Reed is at 2.6 steals. Smith is shooting 44% from 3. Do we really think Sheppard is a significantly better shooter than him?

I really doubt there are 3 inches of height difference between these guys. Maybe I am way wrong. This isn't even me saying Reed isn't better but is he so much better that one should be a top 5 pick and the other completely undrafted? Smith is 2nd leading rebounder on Purdue with 6 per game and averages over 7 apg. Braden Smith is 4.6 win shares vs 4.1 for Reed.

He has had big games too 27 vs Alabama this year, 26 vs Arizona.

i don't have Reed top 5 so i can't comment on that but providing a bit of context why one is looked at as more valuable, which should be pretty obvious.

as for these indicators being outliers...maybe or maybe not, that's the bet an NBA GM is making by drafting him, but he wouldn't be the only prospect GMs would've made assumptions for based on single-year indicators that could be either real or outliers.

[HadAnEffectHere]

Sheppard shot 90% from the line in high school over many years, he's an elite elite shooter.

He just can't create jumpshots at all (shot 29% from three in high school when he was a creator)

[Colbinii]

I think what people need to understand is Sheppard isn't a perfect prospect. Nobody who has him high on their big board is saying he will be Steph Curry or Tyrese Haliburton. What Sheppard has is positive data points, which are signals for positive outcomes as an NBA Player. When people like myself get excited about Sheppard, it is because we are able to see these positive data points, look at them through a lense and attempt to project this player and his skill-set into the NBA.

The entire year of analyzing a prospect is a process where at the end of the day, on June 26th 2024, each team will have gone through a process like us [though the teams do an obvious much more rigorous analysis with multiple opinions] of analyzing data points which can be physical--size, speed, strength, agility, shooting form; Statistical--3P%, STL%, BLK%, AST%, Change and adjustment in statistical profile through conference play and into the conference/ncaa tournament, ect; Projecting/Mental--what skill-sets can this player do at an NBA level? What skill-set can a player realistically add or grow? How does this person carry themselves? What are their goals in the NBA? Interview their teammates or coaches, ect.

All of these result in somehow getting a solid opinion on a prospect and then placing them on a draft board--and the difficult part is every player is different.

For me, I don't get to interview draft prospects. I get access to all the statistics I can though, so I lean more heavily onto that and watching them play in games [Trying to skip the highlight reals here].

So, when we are asked to compare Sheppard to Braden Smith, I would ask the person asking the question have they actively watched both players? Have they done a real, deep analysis statistically between the two players rather than post the 1980s statline of points/assists/rebounds? Do you think Braden Smith projects as a teams lead guard or Sheppard as a teams lead guard? If not, do you see all the traits Sheppard has which could be ported into a secondary guard and connector and do you think Braden Smith could also do that? Do you think there is a big difference between maybe 6' and possibly 6' 3"?