Ace Bailey

[76ciology]

What happened to his last 11 games when he shot 17% from 3? A good shooter wont shoot THAT bad.

[76ciology]

Yeah Bailey’s netrtg is +, but his team still plays really bad when he’s on the court. It’s not like he’s Nikola Jokic.

Even CMB who plays in a really bad team can elevate his team to a 119 ORTG and 100DRTG.

[JMAC3]

Anytime someone is showing shooting splits for a certain time of the season or trying to isolate top 100 vs non-top 100 you know they are reaching to either make a guy look better than he is or worse than he is. Pretty clear which one is happening here.

[Arsenal]

76ciology is afflicted with a sad case of Ace Derangement Syndrome (ADS) unfortunately lol.

[Dat2U]

I've gone back and forth with Ace Bailey and while his advanced metrics leave alot to be desired, context matters with a far from less than desirable situation at Rutgers. I think evaluators see the shot making that most NBA players can't replicate in a lengthy 6-9 wing that moves like a guard and can imagine them in their system, in a clear, defined role with better spacing and see the potential for a high level NBA scorer.

He'll likely never be an ideal 1st option weapon due to the limited court vision but alongside another 1st option, he could potentially thrive in a downsized role built around maximizing his C&S and movement shooting skills while streamling his ballhandling responsibilties while his handle develops. Plus he can provide length, activity & weak side rim protection defensively. To me this warrants a high selection.

I basically see the makings of a taller, less clunkier version of R.J. Barrett with a textbook jumper. What kind of player is that? I think frustrating and possibly infurating at times, especially early on but ultimately capable of being productive and quite impactful if given time to develop.

[JMAC3]

I could see him being a Mikal Bridges type of player that can pick his spots in the midrange but also still be really good defensively with his length and as a spot up spacer. If the ballhandling improves in year 2-4 then he probably is awesome.

[God Squad]

76ciology is afflicted with a sad case of Ace Derangement Syndrome (ADS) unfortunately lol.

But Ace wasn't really good this year, but he showed flashes. I understand 76ciology concerns. Especially because the 76ers need to hit with this pick, and I think Ace's concerns are valid.

[CptCrunch]

What happened to his last 11 games when he shot 17% from 3? A good shooter wont shoot THAT bad.

I think he checked out and gave up as Rutgers was in the dumper and could not make the tournament.

Bailey looks a million bucks shooting. His FT also sucks for a great shooter. Despite how I like to crap on people with cold streaks and bad free throws shooting, I have to admit that this kid is an elite shooter for his size.

[azcatz11]

76ciology is afflicted with a sad case of Ace Derangement Syndrome (ADS) unfortunately lol.

But Ace wasn't really good this year, but he showed flashes. I understand 76ciology concerns. Especially because the 76ers need to hit with this pick, and I think Ace's concerns are valid.

He was a lot better earlier in the year playing against top competition. The big 10 schedule clearly weighed him down and in question Rutgers food and nutrition staff. Wouldn’t surprise me if these kids were eating McDonald’s everyday. Also when Harper went down…playing with complete scrubs who couldn’t make a wnba roster.

For me, the flashes were enough

[vincecarter4pres]

76ciology is afflicted with a sad case of Ace Derangement Syndrome (ADS) unfortunately lol.

But Ace wasn't really good this year, but he showed flashes. I understand 76ciology concerns. Especially because the 76ers need to hit with this pick, and I think Ace's concerns are valid.

He was a lot better earlier in the year playing against top competition. The big 10 schedule clearly weighed him down and in question Rutgers food and nutrition staff. Wouldn’t surprise me if these kids were eating McDonald’s everyday. Also when Harper went down…playing with complete scrubs who couldn’t make a wnba roster.

For me, the flashes were enough

A lot of this is absolutely true, but the flipside is a lot of it is excuses.

He’s young and years away from a finished product though, and has the tools, I’m still taking him no later than 4, with Tre the only one I’m seriously considering over him at 3.

[sodmoraes]

The way i see it, Bailey has some flaws, but he has top 3 most potential in this draft, and fits a need of the Sixers. He may have more chance to be a bust than EdgeCombe, but he can be a star. I just dont see that potential with Edge.

Lets face it, Embiid is probably done as a dominant player ( i dont even know if he will ever play 40 games per season again), so doesnt make sense to pick the most ready player. We need to swing for the fences with this pick, to pair with Maxey thinking on the future. Embiid and PG are sunk costs, we need to pivot for the future.

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[clyde21]

I don't think this is too complicated, if youre drafting top 3, you take Ace and hope he continues to develop the baseline skills to reach his ceiling, unless you think there is someone else with a comparable ceiling to Ace available

yes, we can probably all agree that he's gotta take some huge leaps to get there and chances are he won't, but drafting a roleplayer instead because youre too scared to take a chance on Ace does nothing for your franchise.

you draft Ace, hope he's the next Paul George and if he's not you tried the ceiling play and missed out on a roleplayer, whatever.

[76ciology]

I don't think this is too complicated, if youre drafting top 3, you take Ace and hope he continues to develop the baseline skills to reach his ceiling, unless you think there is someone else with a comparable ceiling to Ace available

yes, we can probably all agree that he's gotta take some huge leaps to get there and chances are he won't, but drafting a roleplayer instead because youre too scared to take a chance on Ace does nothing for your franchise.

you draft Ace, hope he's the next Paul George and if he's not you tried the ceiling play and missed out on a roleplayer, whatever.

So it’s like drafting Bruno Cabuclo with a top 3 pick?

Drafting is essentially an exercise in projection, very similar to calculating expected value. It’s not just about looking at the potential payoff or ceiling of a player.. you also have to consider the probability of that outcome actually happening.

Smart drafting means weighing both the magnitude of the reward and the likelihood of achieving it.

It’s the same logic as not quitting your job and putting all your savings into the lottery just because the potential payout is huge. The reward may be high, but the probability is so low that the expected value is actually poor.

[76ciology]

When people say “don’t overthink it” it already sounds like a tagline of a scammer.

The reason you are overthinking it, is because the perception is different from the reality.

[clyde21]

lol i guess you can comp it to Bruno Caboclo, or you can comp it to Giannis, whichever you prefer. both would be non-serious. Ace is his own prospect with his own priors and his own outcomes.

i won't die on the Ace Bailey hill, he's obviously far from a sure thing. but the opportunity cost of missing out on Ace's ceiling vs the ceiling of anyone else you might take at 3 has to be a factor.

[WinterSoldier]

lol i guess you can comp it to Bruno Caboclo, or you can comp it to Giannis, whichever you prefer. both would be non-serious. Ace is his own prospect with his own priors and his own outcomes.

i won't die on the Ace Bailey hill, he's obviously far from a sure thing. but the opportunity cost of missing out on Ace's ceiling vs the ceiling of anyone else you might take at 3 has to be a factor.

I don't see Ace as a Bruno Caboclo type he has a skill set and will score on the NBA level. I'm more worried about the upside everyone talks about. He measured in a lot closer to average than advertised, he has small hands, he was a average athlete at best. His advanced stats were close to the worst among all freshman in the first round of the draft. He seems to have tunnel vision with almost no playmaking to his teammates and all evidence points to him playing losing basketball. I'm more worried he's closer to Wiggins, Michael Porter Jr, than to Miller, or George type player on the NBA level.

[tmorgan]

It’s risky drafting a talented guy that plays dumbass basketball. You need real faith in your player development.

That said, smart basketball by less talented guys (*cough* Kon) isn’t going to get you anywhere good.

[HadAnEffectHere]

lol i guess you can comp it to Bruno Caboclo, or you can comp it to Giannis, whichever you prefer. both would be non-serious. Ace is his own prospect with his own priors and his own outcomes.

i won't die on the Ace Bailey hill, he's obviously far from a sure thing. but the opportunity cost of missing out on Ace's ceiling vs the ceiling of anyone else you might take at 3 has to be a factor.

Ace's ceiling is as a very good role player, he simply isn't coordinated enough to be a high level star at this height.

Durant and Markkanen are like the only genuinely low BBIQ players in the NBA who are still stars and their physical talent massively exceeds Ace. Maybe he can get to the level of average like Anthony Edwards did, but it's going to be an uphill battle. Ace is also not that skilled outside of shooting.

You should draft Ace Bailey hoping he's Klay Thompson+.

[clyde21]

lol i guess you can comp it to Bruno Caboclo, or you can comp it to Giannis, whichever you prefer. both would be non-serious. Ace is his own prospect with his own priors and his own outcomes.

i won't die on the Ace Bailey hill, he's obviously far from a sure thing. but the opportunity cost of missing out on Ace's ceiling vs the ceiling of anyone else you might take at 3 has to be a factor.

Ace's ceiling is as a very good role player, he simply isn't coordinated enough to be a high level star at this height.

Durant and Markkanen are like the only genuinely low BBIQ players in the NBA who are still stars and their physical talent massively exceeds Ace. Maybe he can get to the level of average like Anthony Edwards did, but it's going to be an uphill battle. Ace is also not that skilled outside of shooting.

You should draft Ace Bailey hoping he's Klay Thompson+.

if you don't think Ace is the ceiling play that's a different discussion, the main point is that at #3 overall that should be the strategy.

[JustBuzzin]

lol i guess you can comp it to Bruno Caboclo, or you can comp it to Giannis, whichever you prefer. both would be non-serious. Ace is his own prospect with his own priors and his own outcomes.

i won't die on the Ace Bailey hill, he's obviously far from a sure thing. but the opportunity cost of missing out on Ace's ceiling vs the ceiling of anyone else you might take at 3 has to be a factor.

Ace's ceiling is as a very good role player, he simply isn't coordinated enough to be a high level star at this height.

Durant and Markkanen are like the only genuinely low BBIQ players in the NBA who are still stars and their physical talent massively exceeds Ace. Maybe he can get to the level of average like Anthony Edwards did, but it's going to be an uphill battle. Ace is also not that skilled outside of shooting.

You should draft Ace Bailey hoping he's Klay Thompson+.

You are bad at this like really bad.