Andrew Wiggins is not a lock at #1?

[noobcake]

You guys love to give examples of prospect with shaky handles turning into hall of famers. What about the 9 failures before Vince Carter? The fact remains that wing players with crappy handles usually do not succeed in the NBA and ALMOST never become stars.

[LloydFree]

I'm not saying he isnt a good prospect...I'm saying doesn't seem to be where many in the media thought he was. They said he was a prospect on the level of Lebron and Kobe...they made it seem like he was at their 17-18 year old level. Fact is, he isn't close to what either guy was at 17. Again, great prospect but that is likely where the backlash is coming from. People were expecting a Kobe or Lebron level talent and they are getting a guy who skillwise can't do much on the basketball court(i think his stats right now are actually a testament to his potential because he looks lost out there at times). The thing that concerns me about Wiggins the MOST is the fact that he is a bad passer. It isn't just seeing the passes, it is the actual touch and accuracy as well. I think the handle will come(it will be good enough for a two guard) and so will the jumper....but im concerned about his passing.

Just to be clear, Wiggins hasn't knocked my socks off either. I got Embiid as a no doubt #1 pick, but I just don't see the overboard hate of Wiggins. He has a few things to work on. His shot I'm not worried about, because he has good form, and guys learn to shoot in the NBA in the gym. His handle isn't as horrendous as people are trying to make it, he just has to get stronger, and more decisive with the ball. But I do agree that a wing with a bad handle, hardly ever becomes great. I don't think he has a 'bad' handle, its just not great.

[Little Digger]

He has a few things to work on? True but those things are the basketball basics..+ he plays with low energy..I doubt the kid's work ethic and love for the game..

[crazy_me_87]

one thing that puts the whole Lebron/TMac/Kobe thing in some trouble is

that we dont have any idea how those guys wouldve performed at college.. because they came in from HS

what would some college fans say if Those 3 would ve done in 1 college year:

Kobe: 14.5 PPG 5.5 Rpg 3.7 Apg in 26 MPG on a good college Team as sixt Man
Tmac 15 PPG 7 RPG 2.5 APG on a Moderate Team as Starting SF
Lebron: 18 PPG 8 RPG 5 APG on a Good Team

would he say they "suprised" in the NBA because they not totaly dominated college?

[LloydFree]

one thing that puts the whole Lebron/TMac/Kobe thing in some trouble is

that we dont have any idea how those guys wouldve performed at college.. because they came in from HS

what would some college fans say if Those 3 would ve done in 1 college year:

Kobe: 14.5 PPG 5.5 Rpg 3.7 Apg in 26 MPG on a good college Team as sixt Man
Tmac 15 PPG 7 RPG 2.5 APG on a Moderate Team as Starting SF
Lebron: 18 PPG 8 RPG 5 APG on a Good Team

would he say they "suprised" in the NBA because they not totaly dominated college?

Nobody compares to Lebron James as a HS player, so I wouldn't try to compare Wiggins to him.

T Mac had a better handle than Kobe, and Wiggins, but was a worst shooter than Wiggins.

Kobe wasn't a good shooter. Tim Thomas and Steven Jackson looked just as good as Kobe in the HS All-star games, because they were both better shooters. Some revisionists will say that Kobe was a great ball handler, but he wasn't. He was much more decisive and fierce with the ball though.

[CBB_Fan]

I'll again point out that the "bad handle" of Wiggins hasn't been a huge detriment to his game. Of KU's main players, Wiggins has the second lowest TOV% at 11.2%, even on the highest usage rating. Compare to the other guards and wings for KU:

Frank Mason - 14.4% on 22% USG%
Andrew White - 16.1% on 22.1%
Wayne Selden - 21.3% on 19%
Brannen Greene - 22.7% on 21.3%
Naadir Tharpe - 23.1% on 15.1%

If his bad handles had a major impact on his game, he wouldn't be KU's best perimeter player or the best at keeping control of the ball. For comparison, here is a list of top players in the NBA (by win share) and there respective TOV% values.

Durant - 12% on 30.5%
Paul - 12.9% on 24.9%
James - 15.4% on 29.1%
Love - 10.3% on 28.3%
George - 11.7% on 28%

In perspective, Wiggin's issues with his handles seem to be overblown. He isn't turning the ball over, despite having plenty of chances to do so. The reason for KU's problems seem to be with the rest of their perimeter players, not Wiggins.

[Ayt]

You can have a poor handle and still have a low turnover rate if you aren't attacking off the dribble much at all (because of your poor handle).

[sikma42]

one thing that puts the whole Lebron/TMac/Kobe thing in some trouble is

that we dont have any idea how those guys wouldve performed at college.. because they came in from HS

what would some college fans say if Those 3 would ve done in 1 college year:

Kobe: 14.5 PPG 5.5 Rpg 3.7 Apg in 26 MPG on a good college Team as sixt Man
Tmac 15 PPG 7 RPG 2.5 APG on a Moderate Team as Starting SF
Lebron: 18 PPG 8 RPG 5 APG on a Good Team

would he say they "suprised" in the NBA because they not totaly dominated college?

Nobody compares to Lebron James as a HS player, so I wouldn't try to compare Wiggins to him.

T Mac had a better handle than Kobe, and Wiggins, but was a worst shooter than Wiggins.

Kobe wasn't a good shooter. Tim Thomas and Steven Jackson looked just as good as Kobe in the HS All-star games, because they were both better shooters. Some revisionists will say that Kobe was a great ball handler, but he wasn't. He was much more decisive and fierce with the ball though.

Why are basing anything off an all star game? Kobe was a whole different animal than Wiggins at this time. Kobe had a midrange game, dribble moves low post and mid post game and good pull up. Skill wise they weren't even int he same league. That isn't revisionist history there are full games of 17 year old Kobe that demonstrate all of these things against grown men.

[CBB_Fan]

You can have a poor handle and still have a low turnover rate if you aren't attacking off the dribble much at all (because of your poor handle).

But he still has the highest usage rate on his team. That means that even if it is affecting him he is still the most ball dominant player on his team.

The point isn't that he doesn't have ball handling problems, but that they do not appear to have a major statistical impact on his game. And even if they did, ball handling is something that can be improved. Because of that it is more trivial than a lack of athleticism/size or low basketball IQ.

[sikma42]

You can have a poor handle and still have a low turnover rate if you aren't attacking off the dribble much at all (because of your poor handle).

But he still has the highest usage rate on his team. That means that even if it is affecting him he is still the most ball dominant player on his team.

The point isn't that he doesn't have ball handling problems, but that they do not appear to have a major statistical impact on his game. And even if they did, ball handling is something that can be improved. Because of that it is more trivial than a lack of athleticism/size or low basketball IQ.

Usage rate does not equal ball dominance.

[HeartBreakKid]

You can have a poor handle and still have a low turnover rate if you aren't attacking off the dribble much at all (because of your poor handle).

But he still has the highest usage rate on his team. That means that even if it is affecting him he is still the most ball dominant player on his team.

The point isn't that he doesn't have ball handling problems, but that they do not appear to have a major statistical impact on his game. And even if they did, ball handling is something that can be improved. Because of that it is more trivial than a lack of athleticism/size or low basketball IQ.

Usage doesn't actually measure ball dominance though. Wiggins is a finisher, naturally he will have high usage. It doesn't mean he has the ball in his hands a lot (from what I've seen, he doesn't).

[EddieJonesFan]

While Wiggins does have great athleticism, and he doesn't get to show it off much in Self's system (and the college system in general,) does he really have superstar athleticism? And don't confuse that question with whether he has elite athleticism, he does and I wouldn't dispute that, but does he have superstar athleticism? I.E. athleticism of a McGrady, LeBron, Wade, Jordan, etc. I.E. the ability to come off the dribble and explode over the defense with a dunk or high angled shot? I think the reason we don't see him do this, and are more likely to see him catch a lob, or take a high angled shot off of a spin move, is because he's a 2-foot jumper, which is more for players who play off the ball or explode from a more stationary position. Maybe I'm overreacting, but just thought I'd put the idea out there.

[sikma42]

While Wiggins does have great athleticism, and he doesn't get to show it off much in Self's system (and the college system in general,) does he really have superstar athleticism? And don't confuse that question with whether he has elite athleticism, he does and I wouldn't dispute that, but does he have superstar athleticism? I.E. athleticism of a McGrady, LeBron, Wade, Jordan, etc. I.E. the ability to come off the dribble and explode over the defense with a dunk or high angled shot? I think the reason we don't see him do this, and are more likely to see him catch a lob, or take a high angled shot off of a spin move, is because he's a 2-foot jumper, which is more for players who play off the ball or explode from a more stationary position. Maybe I'm overreacting, but just thought I'd put the idea out there.

Vince Carter and Dominique were both two footer leapers and I don't think either struggled because of athleticism.

[Jazzfan12]

One thing that's weird statistically about Wiggins is that almost all of his midrange shots are unassisted and he's taking a decent amount of those shots. That suggests that he's tries to iso a good bit but just can't create good shots (which are shots at the rim) for himself and has to settle for midrange shots (which he misses) which supports what I've seen.

His stats in general are really bad for a top 5 pick and terrible for a first overall pick though.

[165bows]

One thing that's weird statistically about Wiggins is that almost all of his midrange shots are unassisted and he's taking a decent amount of those shots. That suggests that he's tries to iso a good bit but just can't create good shots (which are shots at the rim) for himself and has to settle for midrange shots (which he misses) which supports what I've seen.

His stats in general are really bad for a top 5 pick and terrible for a first overall pick though.

I don't think they are as bad people have been generally referring to them as. Compare them to John Wall:

Code: Select all

<PRE>                                                                       
MP      FG  FGA  FG%  2P%  3P%  FT FTA  FT% TRB AST STL BLK TOV  PF  PTS
34.8   5.5 11.8 .461 .509 .325 4.7 6.3 .754 4.3 6.5 1.8 0.5 4.0 1.9 16.6
</PRE>


Wiggins:

Code: Select all

<PRE>                                                                       
MP      FG  FGA  FG%  2P%  3P%  FT FTA  FT% TRB AST STL BLK TOV  PF  PTS
31.6   5.1 11.2 .452 .515 .311 4.5 5.9 .766 5.4 1.4 1.0 0.9 1.8 2.2 15.8
</PRE>


I don't know that he even should be the first overall pick this year, but I feel like he may be moving into official backlash territory. He's still a good prospect, IMO, who just had ridiculous hype levels.

[Jazzfan12]

vjl110's model has him as the 16th best prospect in the draft:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc ... _web#gid=1

It had Wall 3rd in 2010:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc ... _web#gid=0

I think his model is pretty normal and is similar to the standards that Pelton and Hollinger have used.

Assists and steals matter a ton for draft projection and Wiggins trails Wall massively in both areas.

[EddieJonesFan]

While Wiggins does have great athleticism, and he doesn't get to show it off much in Self's system (and the college system in general,) does he really have superstar athleticism? And don't confuse that question with whether he has elite athleticism, he does and I wouldn't dispute that, but does he have superstar athleticism? I.E. athleticism of a McGrady, LeBron, Wade, Jordan, etc. I.E. the ability to come off the dribble and explode over the defense with a dunk or high angled shot? I think the reason we don't see him do this, and are more likely to see him catch a lob, or take a high angled shot off of a spin move, is because he's a 2-foot jumper, which is more for players who play off the ball or explode from a more stationary position. Maybe I'm overreacting, but just thought I'd put the idea out there.

Vince Carter and Dominique were both two footer leapers and I don't think either struggled because of athleticism.

Well, I wasn't suggesting that he would struggle because of athleticism, I don't know what you gave you that idea.

I think Carter was a better one foot leaper than Wiggins, but even if not, wouldn't you put Carter and Wilkins in lower categories than the likes of the players I mentioned? I don't know if I put Wiggins in Carter/Wilkins' cateogry athletically either, although I'd say Wilkins would be a type of player that would perhaps resemble Wiggins' ceiling (he'd have to get a lot stronger though,) but I do expect things to open up for him quite a bit athletically once he gets to the NBA.

[165bows]

vjl110's model has him as the 16th best prospect in the draft:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc ... _web#gid=1

It had Wall 3rd in 2010:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc ... _web#gid=0

I think his model is pretty normal and is similar to the standards that Pelton and Hollinger have used.

Assists and steals matter a ton for draft projection and Wiggins trails Wall massively in both areas.

Hadn't seen the first one, though I've seen the concept used similarly. I also like James Brocato's at shutupandjam.net, but he hasn't put his out yet for the year.

I was psyched on Waiters for the same reason you mentioned, but not sure that was really warranted. But I would agree in general about Wiggins, he's certainly not the Second Coming.

[EricAnderson]

vjl110's model has him as the 16th best prospect in the draft:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc ... _web#gid=1

It had Wall 3rd in 2010:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc ... _web#gid=0

I think his model is pretty normal and is similar to the standards that Pelton and Hollinger have used.

Assists and steals matter a ton for draft projection and Wiggins trails Wall massively in both areas.

That looks like something the cavs gm probably goes by

Jordan Adams 1? haha using those stats in college is stupid its such a different game then the pros alot of coachs stiffle talenetd players between microcoaching and zones


Any formula that has Jordan Adams and Kyle Anderson as the top two prospects is obviously a fail

[CBB_Fan]

You can have a poor handle and still have a low turnover rate if you aren't attacking off the dribble much at all (because of your poor handle).

But he still has the highest usage rate on his team. That means that even if it is affecting him he is still the most ball dominant player on his team.

The point isn't that he doesn't have ball handling problems, but that they do not appear to have a major statistical impact on his game. And even if they did, ball handling is something that can be improved. Because of that it is more trivial than a lack of athleticism/size or low basketball IQ.

Usage doesn't actually measure ball dominance though. Wiggins is a finisher, naturally he will have high usage. It doesn't mean he has the ball in his hands a lot (from what I've seen, he doesn't).

You are right that I used ball dominance incorrectly. What I was trying to say is that Wiggins faults haven't prevented him from being a focal point of his team's offense.

One reason I posted the stats for his team was to show just how badly KU's other perimeter players have played so far. As you point out, Wiggins is best as a finisher, and he is relying on a bunch of players that are simply bad with the ball AND bad from behind the arc. That is a bad combination, as it limits his isolation play by packing the paint and allows teams to prevent him from getting the ball in good positions by hassling KU's PGs and SGs.

So I still think that he is in the group with Parker and Embiid at the top of this class. I think we need to take circumstance into account with all stats, and Wiggins is not in a great circumstance. His best traits are getting masked while his worst traits are highlighted by the system he is in and the teammates around him.