Reed Sheppard and Rob Dillingham - 2024 NBA Draft

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Re: Reed Sheppard and Rob Dillingham - 2024 NBA Draft 

Post#381 » by JMAC3 » Wed Mar 6, 2024 3:47 pm

Data points are cool, but that includes zero projection.

Things Sheppard struggles with... rim pressure, creating his own shot especially behind the 3pt line. If you spend a top 8 pick on him you are drafting him to be a starting point guard. How many starting point guards struggle with both of these?

To me, he projects more as a good backup guard like a Beverly type, can run some offense, make open threes, spread the floor, be an okay defender. He is more of a ball mover than an actual creator for others.

Maybe if you have a star shooting guard who can run an offense like a Booker, Ant type where Reed gets to play more as off ball spacer then sure, but I see virtually no upside that he can be a top 20 point guard in the NBA.

At least with Dillingham there is a tough shot maker, quick twitch element that you can get excited for and theoretically gives defenders issues at the next level.
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Re: Reed Sheppard and Rob Dillingham - 2024 NBA Draft 

Post#382 » by Colbinii » Wed Mar 6, 2024 4:24 pm

JMAC3 wrote:Data points are cool, but that includes zero projection.


That isn't true. Projection is one of the data points. I meant Data Points as in Points you would write down when assessing a prospect, which could be anything from statistical, to projecting skill-set to the NBA, to physical traits, how a player carries themselves, ect.

Things Sheppard struggles with... rim pressure, creating his own shot especially behind the 3pt line. If you spend a top 8 pick on him you are drafting him to be a starting point guard. How many starting point guards struggle with both of these?


He struggles but he also showed clear signs that he can A) Get to the Rim and B) Create his own shot. The question isn't can he do these things--we have seen him do them--the question is can he consistently do that.

If Sheppard could consistently get to the rim and create his own shot, he would without a doubt be the #1 pick in a draft that has literally nobody who has displayed that consistently.

]To me, he projects more as a good backup guard like a Beverly type, can run some offense, make open threes, spread the floor, be an okay defender. He is more of a ball mover than an actual creator for others.


Sheppard is a much better shooter than Beverley.
Sheppard is a much better finisher than Beverley, he already has a floater game and has shown he can finish through contact.

Beverley was an NBA Starter on multiple playoff teams [Harden Rockets, Post-CP3 Clippers, Kawhi/PG13 Clippers, 2022 Timberpups]. If that's the comparison you want to draw, while Sheppard is clearly a better shooter and playmaker, then that is an exceptional player.

Maybe if you have a star shooting guard who can run an offense like a Booker, Ant type where Reed gets to play more as off ball spacer then sure, but I see virtually no upside that he can be a top 20 point guard in the NBA.


Yeah, I don't know if anyone has that realistic upside, but going simply by OBPM, the end of the "Top 20 Guards" are Donte Divincenzo, Malcolm Brogdon, D'Angelo Russell, Anfernee Simons. By BPM the tier is around Maxey, Trae, Sexton, Jrue, Caruso--keep in mind Ja Morant isn't playing this year.

Could Sheppard be a more impactful player than Russell, Simons, Divincenzo, Brogdon or Sexton at his peak? Yeah, he could be.

At least with Dillingham there is a tough shot maker, quick twitch element that you can get excited for and theoretically gives defenders issues at the next level.


Different prospect. This could just as easily be flipped.

"At least Sheppard is a lights-out shooter element that you can get excited for and theoretically gives offenses issues at the next level with his defensive positioning and exceptional hands as an on-ball defender and reading passing lanes."

But yes, Dillingham is a prospect who has some boom/bust elements to his scouting profile which is intriguing. I actually think Sexton and Dillingham are extremely similar prospects, with the difference at the moment [for me] is Sexton had a larger frame. Sexton was able to fill-out his frame and is entering his prime in the NBA as a productive scoring guard where as I see Dillingham being a bit more explosive off the bounce, which also lends itself to some higher-end outcomes as a prospect.
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Re: Reed Sheppard and Rob Dillingham - 2024 NBA Draft 

Post#383 » by JMAC3 » Wed Mar 6, 2024 5:24 pm

Colbinii wrote:
JMAC3 wrote:Data points are cool, but that includes zero projection.


That isn't true. Projection is one of the data points. I meant Data Points as in Points you would write down when assessing a prospect, which could be anything from statistical, to projecting skill-set to the NBA, to physical traits, how a player carries themselves, ect.

Things Sheppard struggles with... rim pressure, creating his own shot especially behind the 3pt line. If you spend a top 8 pick on him you are drafting him to be a starting point guard. How many starting point guards struggle with both of these?


He struggles but he also showed clear signs that he can A) Get to the Rim and B) Create his own shot. The question isn't can he do these things--we have seen him do them--the question is can he consistently do that.

If Sheppard could consistently get to the rim and create his own shot, he would without a doubt be the #1 pick in a draft that has literally nobody who has displayed that consistently.

]To me, he projects more as a good backup guard like a Beverly type, can run some offense, make open threes, spread the floor, be an okay defender. He is more of a ball mover than an actual creator for others.


Sheppard is a much better shooter than Beverley.
Sheppard is a much better finisher than Beverley, he already has a floater game and has shown he can finish through contact.

Beverley was an NBA Starter on multiple playoff teams [Harden Rockets, Post-CP3 Clippers, Kawhi/PG13 Clippers, 2022 Timberpups]. If that's the comparison you want to draw, while Sheppard is clearly a better shooter and playmaker, then that is an exceptional player.

Maybe if you have a star shooting guard who can run an offense like a Booker, Ant type where Reed gets to play more as off ball spacer then sure, but I see virtually no upside that he can be a top 20 point guard in the NBA.


Yeah, I don't know if anyone has that realistic upside, but going simply by OBPM, the end of the "Top 20 Guards" are Donte Divincenzo, Malcolm Brogdon, D'Angelo Russell, Anfernee Simons. By BPM the tier is around Maxey, Trae, Sexton, Jrue, Caruso--keep in mind Ja Morant isn't playing this year.

Could Sheppard be a more impactful player than Russell, Simons, Divincenzo, Brogdon or Sexton at his peak? Yeah, he could be.

At least with Dillingham there is a tough shot maker, quick twitch element that you can get excited for and theoretically gives defenders issues at the next level.


Different prospect. This could just as easily be flipped.

"At least Sheppard is a lights-out shooter element that you can get excited for and theoretically gives offenses issues at the next level with his defensive positioning and exceptional hands as an on-ball defender and reading passing lanes."

But yes, Dillingham is a prospect who has some boom/bust elements to his scouting profile which is intriguing. I actually think Sexton and Dillingham are extremely similar prospects, with the difference at the moment [for me] is Sexton had a larger frame. Sexton was able to fill-out his frame and is entering his prime in the NBA as a productive scoring guard where as I see Dillingham being a bit more explosive off the bounce, which also lends itself to some higher-end outcomes as a prospect.


Every single guy that is going to be picked in the draft has shown they are capable of getting to the rim to some degree, or some degree of creating their shot though. The whole point is he doesn't do it with any type of consistency, so yeah he struggles with it a lot compared to nearly every other 1st round guard. Same with creating his own shot, yes sometimes he will shoot a midrange or floater, but it is very basic stuff compared to other 1st round guard talents.

Sheppard is much better in college then Beverly is in NBA, yes. I am saying I expect Sheppard to take a step back in the NBA as long as his struggles remain the same. Yes Beverly was on good teams, next to an elite shooting guard like Harden... exactly what I mentioned for Sheppard would be a good fit.

Top 20 point guards are like Steph, SGA, Hali, Brunson, Luka, Fox, Murray, Dame, Jrue, Tre, Harden, Maxey, Morant, LaMelo, Kyrie, Garland, Jrue, Dejounte, Cade, FVV.

That doesn't even include the next round of young pgs like Topic, Collier, Scoot, Keyonte, Suggs, Black.

Sheppard has shown significantly less ability to get to the rim and create his own shot than probably 24/26 of these guys if not all of them.
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Re: Reed Sheppard and Rob Dillingham - 2024 NBA Draft 

Post#384 » by Colbinii » Wed Mar 6, 2024 5:27 pm

JMAC3 wrote:Sheppard has shown significantly less ability to get to the rim and create his own shot than probably 24/26 of these guys if not all of them.


At the same age? No.
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Re: Reed Sheppard and Rob Dillingham - 2024 NBA Draft 

Post#385 » by JMAC3 » Wed Mar 6, 2024 5:30 pm

Colbinii wrote:
JMAC3 wrote:Sheppard has shown significantly less ability to get to the rim and create his own shot than probably 24/26 of these guys if not all of them.


At the same age? No.


Majority of the list? yes lol.
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Re: Reed Sheppard and Rob Dillingham - 2024 NBA Draft 

Post#386 » by EvanZ » Wed Mar 6, 2024 5:49 pm

I can only imagine the terror Reed Sheppard would inflict if he was the starting point guard for Santa Clara.
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Re: Reed Sheppard and Rob Dillingham - 2024 NBA Draft 

Post#387 » by Hal14 » Wed Mar 6, 2024 6:32 pm

JMAC3 wrote:Data points are cool, but that includes zero projection.

Things Sheppard struggles with... rim pressure, creating his own shot especially behind the 3pt line. If you spend a top 8 pick on him you are drafting him to be a starting point guard.

What makes you say that? IMO, this is such a weak draft that you can pretty much take the top 10-15 guys in this draft and wherever they do in the 2024 draft, you can add about 4-5 spots and that's where they'd go in a normal draft.

So are you saying that to take Sheppard in the top 13 picks, he'd *have* to be your starting PG? i don't really agree with that.

Also, I don't see why he can't play the 2. Sure, he's small for the 2. But the Raptors were 1 of the best teams in the league with a back court of Vanvleet/Lowry. Utah had best record in the league with a back court of Mitchell/Conley. The Wizards had much success with a Beal/Wall back court.

Not to mention, there's plenty of tall PG's in the league these days (Lamelo, Amen, Haliburton, etc.) who could play the 1 with Sheppard at the 2 so you'd still have a backcourt with decent size.

JMAC3 wrote:To me, he projects more as a good backup guard like a Beverly type, can run some offense, make open threes, spread the floor, be an okay defender. He is more of a ball mover than an actual creator for others.

Maybe if you have a star shooting guard who can run an offense like a Booker, Ant type where Reed gets to play more as off ball spacer then sure, but I see virtually no upside that he can be a top 20 point guard in the NBA.

I'd rather not put a ceiling on a guy who is only 19 yrs old, was a 5 star recruit, has pretty much dominated every level of competition he's played at and is posting numbers we literally have never seen before from a high major freshman:
Read on Twitter


John Paxson was the starting PG for the Bulls when they won 3 straight titles. He was 6'2". Not super quick/athletic. Just a solid defender who played hard, had good basketball IQ, could handle the ball pretty well, move the ball, run the offense a bit, and was a really good shooter.

Lonzo didn't pressure the rim a whole lot in college. Neither did Haliburton during his freshman season. Neither did Deangelo Russell.

Do you realize that John Stockton put up like 3 pts and 1 assist per game during his freshman season? Have you seen Steve Nash's stats during his freshman year at Gonzaga? Only 8 pts and 2 assists a game, a 22% turnover rate, not a good FTr. I'm willing to bet that guys like Terry Porter, Andre Miller, Chauncey Billups, Mark Price, Fred Vanvleet and Mookie Blalock put up worse (or at least comparable) to what Sheppard has done this season.

And none of those guys were awesome as freshman at pressuring the rim or creating their own shots.

Am I saying Sheppard is the next John Stockton? Of course not.

Am I saying that we shouldn't put a ceiling on him, that it's crazy to say there's no way in hell that he'll be a top 20 PG in the NBA? Yes.

Can he still end up being a top 7 or 8 player from this draft class, even if he ends up being more of a 2-guard? Yes..

Is it ridiculous that you continue to come up with every imaginable way you can think of to try and throw shade at Sheppard every single week? Yes

JMAC3 wrote:At least with Dillingham there is a tough shot maker, quick twitch element that you can get excited for and theoretically gives defenders issues at the next level.

Ok? This is just stating the obvious.

They're extremely different prospects though, so it's not very helpful.

Some teams might prefer drafting Sheppard, who has a pretty high floor as a guy who could come in, fit in and play a role on pretty much every team in the league - hit shots, make winning plays, move the ball, be a pest on D, have the versatility to play on ball or off ball. With Dillingham, you pretty much have to just give him the keys and make him your franchise PG - not many teams in the league need that right now.

With that being said, for reasons you mention (and for other reasons) I do have Dillingham ranked a few spots higher (Dill at 2, Sheppard at 7)
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Re: Reed Sheppard and Rob Dillingham - 2024 NBA Draft 

Post#388 » by Hal14 » Wed Mar 6, 2024 6:50 pm

JMAC3 wrote:
Colbinii wrote:
JMAC3 wrote:Sheppard has shown significantly less ability to get to the rim and create his own shot than probably 24/26 of these guys if not all of them.


At the same age? No.


Majority of the list? yes lol.

Ok? Your list of top 20 PGs in the league are all guys who would go top 3 (probably even top 1) in the weak 2024 draft class.

I don't see anyone claiming Sheppard is a top 3 pick in the draft anyways.

I have him ranked 7th right now.

You list a bunch of all-stars (trae, Kyrie, Harden, Steph, Ja, etc.) and some of them are even hall of famers, say Sheppard isn't as good as them and say because of that he's not a lottery pick. Wait, what? How does that make any sense?
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Re: Reed Sheppard and Rob Dillingham - 2024 NBA Draft 

Post#389 » by JMAC3 » Wed Mar 6, 2024 7:27 pm

Hal14 wrote:
JMAC3 wrote:
Colbinii wrote:
At the same age? No.


Majority of the list? yes lol.

Ok? Your list of top 20 PGs in the league are all guys who would go top 3 (probably even top 1) in the weak 2024 draft class.

I don't see anyone claiming Sheppard is a top 3 pick in the draft anyways.

I have him ranked 7th right now.

You list a bunch of all-stars (trae, Kyrie, Harden, Steph, Ja, etc.) and some of them are even hall of famers, say Sheppard isn't as good as them and say because of that he's not a lottery pick. Wait, what? How does that make any sense?


There are people all over the internet saying they have him #1, plenty of people with him in their top 5. It isn't that he isn't as good at them. I am saying nearly all those guys at his age were better at the important stuff like creating own shot, getting to the rim, advanced handle. Including the other young guys like Scoot, Collier, Keyonte... all those guys are better at creating shots for themselves, others and getting to the rim.

Sheppard has a higher turnover %, let alone for a guy with his low usage. The tape says the same thing that his handle is very basic, his quickness is very basic, his finishing tool bag is very shallow.
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Re: Reed Sheppard and Rob Dillingham - 2024 NBA Draft 

Post#390 » by Colbinii » Wed Mar 6, 2024 7:31 pm

JMAC3 wrote:
Hal14 wrote:
JMAC3 wrote:
Majority of the list? yes lol.

Ok? Your list of top 20 PGs in the league are all guys who would go top 3 (probably even top 1) in the weak 2024 draft class.

I don't see anyone claiming Sheppard is a top 3 pick in the draft anyways.

I have him ranked 7th right now.

You list a bunch of all-stars (trae, Kyrie, Harden, Steph, Ja, etc.) and some of them are even hall of famers, say Sheppard isn't as good as them and say because of that he's not a lottery pick. Wait, what? How does that make any sense?


There are people all over the internet saying they have him #1, plenty of people with him in their top 5. It isn't that he isn't as good at them. I am saying nearly all those guys at his age were better at the important stuff like creating own shot, getting to the rim, advanced handle. Including the other young guys like Scoot, Collier, Keyonte... all those guys are better at creating shots for themselves, others and getting to the rim.

Sheppard has a higher turnover %, let alone for a guy with his low usage. The tape says the same thing that his handle is very basic, his quickness is very basic, his finishing tool bag is very shallow.



TOV% isn't a very relevant statistics for Freshman. The best use for TOV% in college is to use it for upper class man to see how their TOV% related to their AST% on a a year-to-year basis.

Do we see their AST% increase and TOV% stabilize or decrease? That's a positive.

Do we see their AST% increase and TOV% increase? Why is this happening?

Do we see their AST% plateau and or regress? Red flag.
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Re: Reed Sheppard and Rob Dillingham - 2024 NBA Draft 

Post#391 » by JMAC3 » Wed Mar 6, 2024 7:32 pm

Hal14 wrote:I'd rather not put a ceiling on a guy who is only 19 yrs old, was a 5 star recruit.

John Paxson and John Stockton......



Sheppard was a 4star recruit by 247, 79th nationally. https://247sports.com/Player/Reed-Sheppard-46102800/ Also, a 4 star on Espn.

He wasn't seen as a first round guy entering the year, he hasn't been that type of player... He also isn't that type of player on Kentucky most nights. It is all projection based around him being this awesome talent because of small sample size eff numbers that are clearly major outliers.

I also don't think trying to make a case for Sheppard based on guys that played 30 years ago is a good argument. The NBA is massively massively different in almost every way.
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Re: Reed Sheppard and Rob Dillingham - 2024 NBA Draft 

Post#392 » by JMAC3 » Wed Mar 6, 2024 7:37 pm

Colbinii wrote:
JMAC3 wrote:
Hal14 wrote:Ok? Your list of top 20 PGs in the league are all guys who would go top 3 (probably even top 1) in the weak 2024 draft class.

I don't see anyone claiming Sheppard is a top 3 pick in the draft anyways.

I have him ranked 7th right now.

You list a bunch of all-stars (trae, Kyrie, Harden, Steph, Ja, etc.) and some of them are even hall of famers, say Sheppard isn't as good as them and say because of that he's not a lottery pick. Wait, what? How does that make any sense?


There are people all over the internet saying they have him #1, plenty of people with him in their top 5. It isn't that he isn't as good at them. I am saying nearly all those guys at his age were better at the important stuff like creating own shot, getting to the rim, advanced handle. Including the other young guys like Scoot, Collier, Keyonte... all those guys are better at creating shots for themselves, others and getting to the rim.

Sheppard has a higher turnover %, let alone for a guy with his low usage. The tape says the same thing that his handle is very basic, his quickness is very basic, his finishing tool bag is very shallow.



TOV% isn't a very relevant statistics for Freshman. The best use for TOV% in college is to use it for upper class man to see how their TOV% related to their AST% on a a year-to-year basis.

Do we see their AST% increase and TOV% stabilize or decrease? That's a positive.

Do we see their AST% increase and TOV% increase? Why is this happening?

Do we see their AST% plateau and or regress? Red flag.


Compared to most top 10 pg prospects his handle isn't good. That is my point. He gets the ball knocked away from him a good bit when I watch and he has no bag when it comes to isolation handles, finishes or footwork. Everything he does is low level stuff.

I agree he is a good shooting prospect, will be an excellent 3pt shooter at the next level as a swing swing guy or corner 3 guy. I just don't see anything other than that skill being on par for his ranking.
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Re: Reed Sheppard and Rob Dillingham - 2024 NBA Draft 

Post#393 » by JMAC3 » Wed Mar 6, 2024 7:57 pm

EvanZ wrote:I can only imagine the terror Reed Sheppard would inflict if he was the starting point guard for Santa Clara.


Well defensives would actually be keying on him, so while his counting stats would be higher his eff #s would be a lot lower. I also don't really know if he would be all that impressive because it is not like he has some superior athleticism or size to overwhelm.

Whereas I think guys like Ron Holland, Collier, Clingan all would be too physically dominant that the Bowling Greens and Sam Houston States would have no chance.
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Re: Reed Sheppard and Rob Dillingham - 2024 NBA Draft 

Post#394 » by EvanZ » Wed Mar 6, 2024 8:23 pm

Today I learned JMAC doesn’t know what conference Santa Clara is in. Maybe he never watched Podz or Jalen Williams.
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Re: Reed Sheppard and Rob Dillingham - 2024 NBA Draft 

Post#395 » by Hal14 » Wed Mar 6, 2024 8:25 pm

JMAC3 wrote:
Hal14 wrote:I'd rather not put a ceiling on a guy who is only 19 yrs old, was a 5 star recruit.

John Paxson and John Stockton......



Sheppard was a 4star recruit by 247, 79th nationally. https://247sports.com/Player/Reed-Sheppard-46102800/ Also, a 4 star on Espn.

He wasn't seen as a first round guy entering the year, he hasn't been that type of player... He also isn't that type of player on Kentucky most nights. It is all projection based around him being this awesome talent because of small sample size eff numbers that are clearly major outliers.

I also don't think trying to make a case for Sheppard based on guys that played 30 years ago is a good argument. The NBA is massively massively different in almost every way.

It's not that different.

One of the differences is that the NBA now is more built around 3 pt shooting, which is what Sheppard does best. He's having a historically good 3 pt shooting season for a freshman.

Another thing Sheppard is good at is getting steals, blocks, playing smart, positionally sound team defense and getting defensive rebounds. Pretty sure those things still work in today's NBA.
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Not all the guys I named were from 30 years ago. Andre Miller, Steve Nash, Chauncey Billups were more recent. Lonzo and Deangelo Russell are still playing now. Damian Lillard had a low FTr as a freshman, in a mid major conference. So did Haliburton, who is playing right now. Lamelo probably had a pretty low FTr in the NBL.

A few sites list him as a 5 star. Not that it really matters. I mean, Sheppard was a Mcdonalds all-american..where he was ranked by ESPN (23rd), in that range the guys are all borderline 4-star/5 star guys.
https://www.tarheeltimes.com/recruitprofile2234.aspx
https://www.aseaofblue.com/2021/8/27/22644592/reed-sheppard-dj-wagner-dajuan-jr-kentucky-basketball-recruiting-news
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Re: Reed Sheppard and Rob Dillingham - 2024 NBA Draft 

Post#396 » by JMAC3 » Wed Mar 6, 2024 8:40 pm

Hal14 wrote:
JMAC3 wrote:
Hal14 wrote:I'd rather not put a ceiling on a guy who is only 19 yrs old, was a 5 star recruit.

John Paxson and John Stockton......



Sheppard was a 4star recruit by 247, 79th nationally. https://247sports.com/Player/Reed-Sheppard-46102800/ Also, a 4 star on Espn.

He wasn't seen as a first round guy entering the year, he hasn't been that type of player... He also isn't that type of player on Kentucky most nights. It is all projection based around him being this awesome talent because of small sample size eff numbers that are clearly major outliers.

I also don't think trying to make a case for Sheppard based on guys that played 30 years ago is a good argument. The NBA is massively massively different in almost every way.

It's not that different.

One of the differences is that the NBA now is more built around 3 pt shooting, which is what Sheppard does best. He's having a historically good 3 pt shooting season for a freshman.

Another thing Sheppard is good at is getting steals, blocks, playing smart, positionally sound team defense and getting defensive rebounds. Pretty sure those things still work in today's NBA.
Read on Twitter


Not all the guys I named were from 30 years ago. Andre Miller, Steve Nash, Chauncey Billups were more recent. Lonzo and Deangelo Russell are still playing now. Damian Lillard had a low FTr as a freshman, in a mid major conference. So did Haliburton, who is playing right now. Lamelo probably had a pretty low FTr in the NBL.

A few sites list him as a 5 star. Not that it really matters. I mean, Sheppard was a Mcdonalds all-american..where he was ranked by ESPN (23rd), in that range the guys are all borderline 4-star/5 star guys.
https://www.tarheeltimes.com/recruitprofile2234.aspx
https://www.aseaofblue.com/2021/8/27/22644592/reed-sheppard-dj-wagner-dajuan-jr-kentucky-basketball-recruiting-news


I just don't really think we are looking at the right metrics that are going to matter at the next level. Why do I care about block % for a 6-2 guard with mediocre athleticism and length?

Fast forward 3 years and let's say he doesn't pan out. Are we really going to look back and say "Man, I am so shocked he wasn't a good pro, he blocked .8 shots per game in college can't believe that didn't translate?"
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Re: Reed Sheppard and Rob Dillingham - 2024 NBA Draft 

Post#397 » by EvanZ » Wed Mar 6, 2024 9:11 pm

Blk% indicates functional athleticism and feel. Reed has both in spades.
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Re: Reed Sheppard and Rob Dillingham - 2024 NBA Draft 

Post#398 » by Hal14 » Wed Mar 6, 2024 9:28 pm

JMAC3 wrote:
Hal14 wrote:
JMAC3 wrote:
Sheppard was a 4star recruit by 247, 79th nationally. https://247sports.com/Player/Reed-Sheppard-46102800/ Also, a 4 star on Espn.

He wasn't seen as a first round guy entering the year, he hasn't been that type of player... He also isn't that type of player on Kentucky most nights. It is all projection based around him being this awesome talent because of small sample size eff numbers that are clearly major outliers.

I also don't think trying to make a case for Sheppard based on guys that played 30 years ago is a good argument. The NBA is massively massively different in almost every way.

It's not that different.

One of the differences is that the NBA now is more built around 3 pt shooting, which is what Sheppard does best. He's having a historically good 3 pt shooting season for a freshman.

Another thing Sheppard is good at is getting steals, blocks, playing smart, positionally sound team defense and getting defensive rebounds. Pretty sure those things still work in today's NBA.
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Not all the guys I named were from 30 years ago. Andre Miller, Steve Nash, Chauncey Billups were more recent. Lonzo and Deangelo Russell are still playing now. Damian Lillard had a low FTr as a freshman, in a mid major conference. So did Haliburton, who is playing right now. Lamelo probably had a pretty low FTr in the NBL.

A few sites list him as a 5 star. Not that it really matters. I mean, Sheppard was a Mcdonalds all-american..where he was ranked by ESPN (23rd), in that range the guys are all borderline 4-star/5 star guys.
https://www.tarheeltimes.com/recruitprofile2234.aspx
https://www.aseaofblue.com/2021/8/27/22644592/reed-sheppard-dj-wagner-dajuan-jr-kentucky-basketball-recruiting-news


I just don't really think we are looking at the right metrics that are going to matter at the next level. Why do I care about block % for a 6-2 guard with mediocre athleticism and length?

Fast forward 3 years and let's say he doesn't pan out. Are we really going to look back and say "Man, I am so shocked he wasn't a good pro, he blocked .8 shots per game in college can't believe that didn't translate?"

3 things:

1) I make a long post where I make like 20 different points. All you've got to reply back is nitpicking some minor point about blocks....WEAK. You've got nothing to say about the other 19 points I made? Well, I guess Sheppard *is* a top 10 pick then 8-)

2) WEAK to put blocks per game. Who still uses per game averages? Let's get with the times here and use blocks %

2) You seem to fixate too much on size, athleticism and length. Here's the career blocks % for each guy during college:

Derrick White: 4.9
Gary Payton II: 3.2
Reed Sheppard: 2.8
Marcus Smart: 2.1
Lonzo Ball: 2.1
Dyson Daniels: 2.0
Caruso: 1.8
Anthony Black: 1.8
Dillon Brooks: 1.7
Jrue Holiday: 1.7
Dennis Smith Jr: 1.2
Jalen Suggs: 1.1
Pat Beverley: 0.9
Dejounte Murray: 0.8
Lu Dort: 0.8
Kyle Lowry: 0.6
Chris Paul: 0.4

If these other guys have better physical tools, than why couldn't they block more shots than Sheppard?

Again, no other player since 2008 has hit the marks Sheppard has defensively (steals %, blocks %, DBPM, d-rebound %). If those other guards have better physical tools, then they should have blown Sheppard out of the water in these categories, no? Especially considering a lot of the guys I listed above played 3-4 yrs of college so that would help them have a higher career blocks % than a guy who's only a freshman..

Sure, physical tools matter. But a lot of defense is about instincts, timing. Having quick hands. Having basketball IQ. Being really aggressive, without being so aggressive that you foul too much. Having sound technique when defending someone, not biting on fakes, etc. Sheppard has all that stuff.
Nothing wrong with having a different opinion - as long as it's done respectfully. It'd be lame if we all agreed on everything :)
HadAnEffectHere
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Re: Reed Sheppard and Rob Dillingham - 2024 NBA Draft 

Post#399 » by HadAnEffectHere » Wed Mar 6, 2024 9:31 pm

I'm sorry, but Sheppard is 6'1", 187, he's going to get switch hunted and shoved to the ground by Tatum etc every single play.

It doesn't matter how good his feel is, he's going to be treated like a bowling pin as long as the rules allow forwards to shove guards.

None of his help defense will matter at all because he'll be on ball always and getting shoved to the ground constantly.
HadAnEffectHere
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Re: Reed Sheppard and Rob Dillingham - 2024 NBA Draft 

Post#400 » by HadAnEffectHere » Wed Mar 6, 2024 9:39 pm

EvanZ wrote:I can only imagine the terror Reed Sheppard would inflict if he was the starting point guard for Santa Clara.


We have data on Reed Sheppard creating his own shot in high school and it did not go well at all, actually.

"Sheppard is a throwback style guard who is skilled and exceptionally sound fundamentally. He is a solid athlete, but not dynamic or totally explosive. His attack is based on his ability to shoot the ball, make sound decisions, and process the game. He has a high and compact release that allows him to get his shot off and rates as one of the best free-throw shooters on any of the three major circuits at over 90%. He plays strong with the ball, is tight and efficient with it as a handler, has good use of both hands, and snaps his passes. He’s supremely confident in his approach and is capable of playing on and off the ball. Because he’s a tad upright off the dribble and lacks that extra gear of burst, he isn’t always able to flatten defensive pressure and ends up settling for tough shots. He converted only 29% of his three-point attempts as a result and while he’s a better shooter than that number indicates, his three-point range is going to be an even bigger emphasis at the next level and so being a driller is crucial. Defensively, he’s going to rely more on his intellect, physicality, and toughness than he is sheer footspeed."

https://247sports.com/player/reed-sheppard-46102800/

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