Ace Bailey

[HadAnEffectHere]

lol i guess you can comp it to Bruno Caboclo, or you can comp it to Giannis, whichever you prefer. both would be non-serious. Ace is his own prospect with his own priors and his own outcomes.

i won't die on the Ace Bailey hill, he's obviously far from a sure thing. but the opportunity cost of missing out on Ace's ceiling vs the ceiling of anyone else you might take at 3 has to be a factor.

Ace's ceiling is as a very good role player, he simply isn't coordinated enough to be a high level star at this height.

Durant and Markkanen are like the only genuinely low BBIQ players in the NBA who are still stars and their physical talent massively exceeds Ace. Maybe he can get to the level of average like Anthony Edwards did, but it's going to be an uphill battle. Ace is also not that skilled outside of shooting.

You should draft Ace Bailey hoping he's Klay Thompson+.

You are bad at this like really bad.

"Ace has superstar talent, he just can't gain advantage over accountants despite limited defensive focus due to having a much better teammate, don't worry about it."

[JustBuzzin]

Ace's ceiling is as a very good role player, he simply isn't coordinated enough to be a high level star at this height.

Durant and Markkanen are like the only genuinely low BBIQ players in the NBA who are still stars and their physical talent massively exceeds Ace. Maybe he can get to the level of average like Anthony Edwards did, but it's going to be an uphill battle. Ace is also not that skilled outside of shooting.

You should draft Ace Bailey hoping he's Klay Thompson+.

You are bad at this like really bad.

"Ace has superstar talent, he just can't gain advantage over accountants despite limited defensive focus due to having a much better teammate, don't worry about it."

The only thing I'm worried about with Ace is his ball handling. He needs to improve that if he wants to be a superstar. Right now he's a catch n shoot guy at the next level. He's more Rashard Lewis than Paul George.

Will be interesting to see how he develops. At worst I think he can be a 3&D role player if the handle doesn't improve.

[CptCrunch]

There is zero evidence Ace is a &D player.

Gotta stop with the &D for anyone with size and moderate athleticism.

[tmorgan]

Ace Bailey is going to bust. Hard. There it is, on the record. He’s Jabari Smith Jr. with even less of a motor. Big friggin yikes.

[vincecarter4pres]

lol i guess you can comp it to Bruno Caboclo, or you can comp it to Giannis, whichever you prefer. both would be non-serious. Ace is his own prospect with his own priors and his own outcomes.

i won't die on the Ace Bailey hill, he's obviously far from a sure thing. but the opportunity cost of missing out on Ace's ceiling vs the ceiling of anyone else you might take at 3 has to be a factor.

Ace's ceiling is as a very good role player, he simply isn't coordinated enough to be a high level star at this height.

Durant and Markkanen are like the only genuinely low BBIQ players in the NBA who are still stars and their physical talent massively exceeds Ace. Maybe he can get to the level of average like Anthony Edwards did, but it's going to be an uphill battle. Ace is also not that skilled outside of shooting.

You should draft Ace Bailey hoping he's Klay Thompson+.

Did you just call Kevin Durant a, “genuinely low BBIQ player”?

And basically call Anthony Edwards average?

I’m so confused.

[ExplosionsInDaSky]

Ace Bailey is going to bust. Hard. There it is, on the record. He’s Jabari Smith Jr. with even less of a motor. Big friggin yikes.

Wow! Incredible comment! Just got a chill in my left eye. It was just like that scene in The Fugitive when Indiana Jones looks over at Quint and says "you're gonna need a bigger boat." Had me doing cartwheels across my living room floor! Amazing comment! My family tree just simultaneously did a backflip. "Ace is a bust" WOW!

[tmorgan]

Ace Bailey is going to bust. Hard. There it is, on the record. He’s Jabari Smith Jr. with even less of a motor. Big friggin yikes.

Wow! Incredible comment! Just got a chill in my left eye. It was just like that scene is The Fugitive when Indiana Jones looks over at Quint and says "you're gonna need a bigger boat." Had me doing cartwheels across my living room floor! Amazing comment! My family tree just simultaneously did a backflip. "Ace is a bust" WOW!

Reduce your Adderall intake immediately.

(I did laugh, tho)

[God Squad]

You are bad at this like really bad.

"Ace has superstar talent, he just can't gain advantage over accountants despite limited defensive focus due to having a much better teammate, don't worry about it."

The only thing I'm worried about with Ace is his ball handling. He needs to improve that if he wants to be a superstar. Right now he's a catch n shoot guy at the next level. He's more Rashard Lewis than Paul George.

Will be interesting to see how he develops. At worst I think he can be a 3&D role player if the handle doesn't improve.

Cons
- terrible shot diet
- low IQ
-bad handle
- ball stopper
- playmaking

Pros
- Jumper looks projectable
- Flashes potential on defense
- good size


Ace will need to reprogram the way he sees and plays the game. I'm worried he's going to want to stop the action and dribble when he should be catching/shooting, or making the extra pass. I see his ceiling as Rudy Gay ish if the handle improves a bit, and a Rashard Lewis/MPJ if it doesn't.

[JMAC3]

"Ace has superstar talent, he just can't gain advantage over accountants despite limited defensive focus due to having a much better teammate, don't worry about it."

Limited defensive focus? Literally every time he drives towards the rim there are 3 guys on him lol.

Harper would have been even more unstoppable playing for a team with real spacing and a real big, but even he struggled getting to the rim sometimes and had to force midrange shots (25/81 31%) because teams were clogging the paint so hard.

Ace inefficiency is overblown, 51% from 2, 34.5% from three, shot 61% at the rim, efg% of 51.4%. None of those numbers are stand off the page bad. Would I prefer he got to the rim more? Yes. I think it was a mixed bag of Ace fault of lack strength, handle and mindset but also a good portion of lack of a good environment at Rutgers via teammates, coaching, scheme and accountability.

To compare, Jabari Smith shot 43.5% from 2 in college.

If Ace biggest weaknesses at age 18 are lack of elite handle and strength those are things I think my player development team should be able to help improve a ton over the next 24 months.

[JustBuzzin]

"Ace has superstar talent, he just can't gain advantage over accountants despite limited defensive focus due to having a much better teammate, don't worry about it."

The only thing I'm worried about with Ace is his ball handling. He needs to improve that if he wants to be a superstar. Right now he's a catch n shoot guy at the next level. He's more Rashard Lewis than Paul George.

Will be interesting to see how he develops. At worst I think he can be a 3&D role player if the handle doesn't improve.

Cons
- terrible shot diet
- low IQ
-bad handle
- ball stopper
- playmaking

Pros
- Jumper looks projectable
- Flashes potential on defense
- good size


Ace will need to reprogram the way he sees and plays the game. I'm worried he's going to want to stop the action and dribble when he should be catching/shooting, or making the extra pass. I see his ceiling as Rudy Gay ish if the handle improves a bit, and a Rashard Lewis/MPJ if it doesn't.

I don't think his shots are terrible, some of his shots are tough because he doesn't create much separation off the dribble. It goes back to his weakness ball handling. Even though the shots seem tough he seems to make a good portion of them. Some guys just make tough shots.

I don't care much about his playmaking he's not a playmaker he's a pure scorer. If you're drafting Ace expecting a all-around wing you're not getting that.

Ace will be a 20+ppg wing who can play defense. He's not going to be someone you can rely on to make plays for others.

[HadAnEffectHere]

lol i guess you can comp it to Bruno Caboclo, or you can comp it to Giannis, whichever you prefer. both would be non-serious. Ace is his own prospect with his own priors and his own outcomes.

i won't die on the Ace Bailey hill, he's obviously far from a sure thing. but the opportunity cost of missing out on Ace's ceiling vs the ceiling of anyone else you might take at 3 has to be a factor.

Ace's ceiling is as a very good role player, he simply isn't coordinated enough to be a high level star at this height.

Durant and Markkanen are like the only genuinely low BBIQ players in the NBA who are still stars and their physical talent massively exceeds Ace. Maybe he can get to the level of average like Anthony Edwards did, but it's going to be an uphill battle. Ace is also not that skilled outside of shooting.

You should draft Ace Bailey hoping he's Klay Thompson+.

Did you just call Kevin Durant a, “genuinely low BBIQ player”?

And basically call Anthony Edwards average?

I’m so confused.

I'm saying Edwards has an average BBIQ. I gave him as an example as he's the most famous example of an extremely low BBIQ player in college improving that aspect in the NBA. Durant and Markkanen are low BBIQ stars, their shot-pass decision making is absolutely terrible and they can't visualize future moves a defense might make in response to their own moves. This is why Durant has not really helped his teams win at all as he's physically declined. Durant will take the first average shot he sees instead of working and moving to create an open three for his teammate. Personnel decisions are also not that correlated with on-court feel for the game, but Durant is probably also the single worst player-GM in NBA history and that does make me view his bad on-court decision making more harshly. Durant has literally no idea how team building works and simply wants to collect as many players like him as possible and it always ends terribly and he never learns.

(I forgot KAT as another low BBIQ star but KAT is also wildly more talented than Ace)

[ExplosionsInDaSky]

Ace Bailey is going to bust. Hard. There it is, on the record. He’s Jabari Smith Jr. with even less of a motor. Big friggin yikes.

Wow! Incredible comment! Just got a chill in my left eye. It was just like that scene is The Fugitive when Indiana Jones looks over at Quint and says "you're gonna need a bigger boat." Had me doing cartwheels across my living room floor! Amazing comment! My family tree just simultaneously did a backflip. "Ace is a bust" WOW!

Reduce your Adderall intake immediately.

(I did laugh, tho)

It's Ritalin, and you love Ace Bailey...Admit it.

[FarBeyondDriven]

This guy does not interview well. I think I need to drop him some.

[tmorgan]

Really does come off as taller, weaker Whitmore with less handle. That guy fell like a stone. Wonder if Ace will.

I get risk/reward, especially in a draft where 3 on down is up in the air. But the risk here seems super high, and what’s the reward? A play finisher that will need to improve quite a bit just to be average? He’s not getting you 20 unless he gets over 20 shots up, at which point you might as well put a ‘tank commander’ sign on his back.

[CptCrunch]

Whitmore fells because he was rumored to have been medically red flagged. He didn't develop into a banger because of either bad luck, bad development of crowded Rockets front court.

[vincecarter4pres]

Would be absolutely shocking if he falls out of the lottery.

Fall out of the top 5? 6, 7, etc.? Sure. But out of the top 10 would be surprising enough.

At 3-7 he has some serious risk because there are a bunch of worthy candidates for 3rd overall, but after that the risk/reward ratio becomes substantial towards the latter.

[zero rings]

I don’t know how Ace Bailey can be considered the “high upside” pick when he has the court awareness of Michael Porter Jr. BBIQ is something you either have or you don’t, and he doesn’t have it.

To me his upside is a smaller, quicker version of MPJ, with potentially better defense. That’s a decent player but not a slam dunk top 5 pick.

[EvanZ]

He reminds me of Jalen McDaniels who I don’t think of as a super high IQ guy.

[76ciology]

He reminds me of Jalen McDaniels who I don’t think of as a super high IQ guy.

You mean the left one right?

[JMAC3]

I understand Ace isn't an analytics darling but feels like people aren't willing to give him any type of positive praise.

How does he become the #2 prospect in the country if he is low IQ, nothing special athletically, not a great shooter, not that big, not that good of a handle and a meh defender? If he is as bad at half of these things as people want to believe then he must be truly special 1 of 1 at other skills but feels like nobody is willing to concede that.