Pick for the Hornets 13 & 15

[toooskies]

Read on Twitter

?lang=en

Pelton has 15 and 13 as worth between the 2nd and 3rd pick, which seems kind of insane, but I looked at 6-10 years ago (because those players are who they are by now basically) and #13 or #15 included guys like Giannis, Lavine, Kawhi and Booker and lots of busts at 2 or 3 so it does seem to check out.

Can't see the top 3 moving and OKC doesn't need more picks, but using the current draft order, maybe Indiana moving #5 for 13 and 15 for 5 isn't crazy, or Portland at 6 or Sacramento at 7. All those teams need a starting forward and I think at the moment I'd bet on 4-7 only maybe including Keegan Murray in that group (Ivey, Sharpe, Mathurin the others, as I have them ahead of Griffin) so maybe going from Keegan Murray to hoping one of Davis (a 2 guard, but those teams aren't set there really apart from Duarte in Indy and he can probably be a 2/3), Sochan or Eason fall to 13 is worth also getting the #15 pick, especially for rebuilding teams which Indiana and Sacramento might not want to be but should think of themselves as. They could draft a project with great tools like Kendall Brown or a potential starting center in Mark Williams or a guy from the next tier who they love after workouts that will be moving up over the next few months as always occur, or literally any foreign player since only Daniels might be gone.

It’s a moronic take. Nobody is trading a top 3 pick for 13 and 15.

Pelton is wildly off on the values of the higher picks.

We are in the midst of the top picks being pretty ordinary for a decade and a half or so now. Starting in 2005 (LeBron was 2003 #1 and Dwight Howard was 2004), the #1 overall has been Bogut, Bargnani, Oden, D-Rose, Griffin, Wall, Kyrie, AD, Anthony Bennett, Andrew Wiggins, KAT, Simmons, Fultz, Ayton, Zion, Anthony Edwards, Cade. Don't get me wrong-- a lot of those guys are all-stars, but we've populated half the NBA with a #1 pick that hasn't been a 1A scoring option on a championship team, only two second bananas, and a 1x MVP in Rose. The #2 overall pick has KD being the only 1A/MVP since then.

Half the all-stars in this year's ASG were picks outside of the top 5, sometimes well outside the top 5. The last two MVPs (covering four years) were taken outside the top 10. A top 2 pick hasn't won MVP since 2013-14.

So, yeah. #3 overall for #13 and #15? Sure, if this is 2013 and it's Otto Porter Jr. for Kelly Olynyk and Giannis. Or 2015 if it's Jahlil Okafor for Devin Booker and Kelly Oubre. 2017 you probably don't trade the #3 (Tatum) for #13 and #15 (Mitchell and Justin Jackson), but you probably trade anyone else in the top 10.

That's the thing, the draft is kind of a crapshoot. There's more talent but also plenty of chances for the top guys to not pan out.

[tester551]

We are in the midst of the top picks being pretty ordinary for a decade and a half or so now. Starting in 2005 (LeBron was 2003 #1 and Dwight Howard was 2004), the #1 overall has been Bogut, Bargnani, Oden, D-Rose, Griffin, Wall, Kyrie, AD, Anthony Bennett, Andrew Wiggins, KAT, Simmons, Fultz, Ayton, Zion, Anthony Edwards, Cade. Don't get me wrong-- a lot of those guys are all-stars, but we've populated half the NBA with a #1 pick that hasn't been a 1A scoring option on a championship team, only two second bananas, and a 1x MVP in Rose. The #2 overall pick has KD being the only 1A/MVP since then.

Half the all-stars in this year's ASG were picks outside of the top 5, sometimes well outside the top 5. The last two MVPs (covering four years) were taken outside the top 10. A top 2 pick hasn't won MVP since 2013-14.

So, yeah. #3 overall for #13 and #15? Sure, if this is 2013 and it's Otto Porter Jr. for Kelly Olynyk and Giannis. Or 2015 if it's Jahlil Okafor for Devin Booker and Kelly Oubre. 2017 you probably don't trade the #3 (Tatum) for #13 and #15 (Mitchell and Justin Jackson), but you probably trade anyone else in the top 10.

That's the thing, the draft is kind of a crapshoot. There's more talent but also plenty of chances for the top guys to not pan out.

This is a great take. For this draft, There are 3-4 prospects that I like just as much (if not better) than the top 4. I'd rather have 2 picks later than 1 earlier pick to find that potential star.

[Dame Lizard]

This is self sering as a Blazer fan but
#6 Sharpe
4
#13 D.Daniels
#15 Sochan or Eason
Hornets swing for the fences
Portland drafts 2 plus defender/playmakers

Absolutely no way am I trading Sharpe (if he falls to the Blazers) for #13 and #15.

That's got nightmare written all over it imo.

Generally speaking, trading down isn't a good idea, particularly when you're trading between different tiers of talent.

If Sharpe/Smith/Paolo/Ivey/Chet were all off the board at #6, I'd be more open to it.

[SeattleJazzFan]

Read on Twitter

?lang=en

Pelton has 15 and 13 as worth between the 2nd and 3rd pick, which seems kind of insane, but I looked at 6-10 years ago (because those players are who they are by now basically) and #13 or #15 included guys like Giannis, Lavine, Kawhi and Booker and lots of busts at 2 or 3 so it does seem to check out.

Can't see the top 3 moving and OKC doesn't need more picks, but using the current draft order, maybe Indiana moving #5 for 13 and 15 for 5 isn't crazy, or Portland at 6 or Sacramento at 7. All those teams need a starting forward and I think at the moment I'd bet on 4-7 only maybe including Keegan Murray in that group (Ivey, Sharpe, Mathurin the others, as I have them ahead of Griffin) so maybe going from Keegan Murray to hoping one of Davis (a 2 guard, but those teams aren't set there really apart from Duarte in Indy and he can probably be a 2/3), Sochan or Eason fall to 13 is worth also getting the #15 pick, especially for rebuilding teams which Indiana and Sacramento might not want to be but should think of themselves as. They could draft a project with great tools like Kendall Brown or a potential starting center in Mark Williams or a guy from the next tier who they love after workouts that will be moving up over the next few months as always occur, or literally any foreign player since only Daniels might be gone.

It’s a moronic take. Nobody is trading a top 3 pick for 13 and 15.

Pelton is wildly off on the values of the higher picks.

We are in the midst of the top picks being pretty ordinary for a decade and a half or so now. Starting in 2005 (LeBron was 2003 #1 and Dwight Howard was 2004), the #1 overall has been Bogut, Bargnani, Oden, D-Rose, Griffin, Wall, Kyrie, AD, Anthony Bennett, Andrew Wiggins, KAT, Simmons, Fultz, Ayton, Zion, Anthony Edwards, Cade. Don't get me wrong-- a lot of those guys are all-stars, but we've populated half the NBA with a #1 pick that hasn't been a 1A scoring option on a championship team, only two second bananas, and a 1x MVP in Rose. The #2 overall pick has KD being the only 1A/MVP since then.

Half the all-stars in this year's ASG were picks outside of the top 5, sometimes well outside the top 5. The last two MVPs (covering four years) were taken outside the top 10. A top 2 pick hasn't won MVP since 2013-14.

So, yeah. #3 overall for #13 and #15? Sure, if this is 2013 and it's Otto Porter Jr. for Kelly Olynyk and Giannis. Or 2015 if it's Jahlil Okafor for Devin Booker and Kelly Oubre. 2017 you probably don't trade the #3 (Tatum) for #13 and #15 (Mitchell and Justin Jackson), but you probably trade anyone else in the top 10.

That's the thing, the draft is kind of a crapshoot. There's more talent but also plenty of chances for the top guys to not pan out.

it's always been that way. very few guys are number 1 scoring options on championship teams - hence, very few #1 overall picks in the history of the league have been #1 scoring options on championship teams.

from 1985 to lebron...you're looking at 18 #1 overall picks and two who were primary scoring options on championship teams.

2/18. and that's how it will always be. having said that i do understand your point - with 13 and 15 you get two chances to hit on this crapshoot as opposed to just one. that idea definitely has merit.

Ewing
Daugherty
Robinson
Manning
Ellison
Coleman
Johnson
Shaq
Webber
G Robinson
Smith
iverson
duncan
olowokandi
brand
martin
brown
ming

[KembaWalker]

I'd love to get Sharpe at 13 as a gamble but trading up to 6 for him seems kinda nuts. Agbaji will probably be better than him in the pros. people fall in love with the guys don't play, seems like there is no better way to pump your draft stock than sitting at home. his high school/work out tape is intriguing but far from convincing

[toooskies]

It’s a moronic take. Nobody is trading a top 3 pick for 13 and 15.

Pelton is wildly off on the values of the higher picks.

We are in the midst of the top picks being pretty ordinary for a decade and a half or so now. Starting in 2005 (LeBron was 2003 #1 and Dwight Howard was 2004), the #1 overall has been Bogut, Bargnani, Oden, D-Rose, Griffin, Wall, Kyrie, AD, Anthony Bennett, Andrew Wiggins, KAT, Simmons, Fultz, Ayton, Zion, Anthony Edwards, Cade. Don't get me wrong-- a lot of those guys are all-stars, but we've populated half the NBA with a #1 pick that hasn't been a 1A scoring option on a championship team, only two second bananas, and a 1x MVP in Rose. The #2 overall pick has KD being the only 1A/MVP since then.

Half the all-stars in this year's ASG were picks outside of the top 5, sometimes well outside the top 5. The last two MVPs (covering four years) were taken outside the top 10. A top 2 pick hasn't won MVP since 2013-14.

So, yeah. #3 overall for #13 and #15? Sure, if this is 2013 and it's Otto Porter Jr. for Kelly Olynyk and Giannis. Or 2015 if it's Jahlil Okafor for Devin Booker and Kelly Oubre. 2017 you probably don't trade the #3 (Tatum) for #13 and #15 (Mitchell and Justin Jackson), but you probably trade anyone else in the top 10.

That's the thing, the draft is kind of a crapshoot. There's more talent but also plenty of chances for the top guys to not pan out.

it's always been that way. very few guys are number 1 scoring options on championship teams - hence, very few #1 overall picks in the history of the league have been #1 scoring options on championship teams.

from 1985 to lebron...you're looking at 18 #1 overall picks and two who were primary scoring options on championship teams.

2/18. and that's how it will always be.

Ewing
Daugherty
Robinson
Manning
Ellison
Coleman
Johnson
Shaq
Webber
G Robinson
Smith
iverson
duncan
olowokandi
brand
martin
brown
ming

Robinson, Shaq, Iverson, and Duncan were league MVPs and Ewing, Webber, and Yao are Hall of Famers-- and all at least 1A or 1B on contenders. That's a level of quality above the recent period. And you take a year or two in either direction and you add more MVP 1As (Olajuwon, LeBron), and HOFers/future HOFers (Sampson, Howard).

If you're building HOF cases for the modern picks, AD is the only sure thing, Kyrie/DRose/Griffin/Wall as maybes, KAT and Simmons with work to do, and Zion/Edwards/Cade too early to judge. Only AD/Kyrie/Rose/Griffin as 1A/1B on contenders, half as many as your list.

[Prospect Dong]

Read on Twitter

?lang=en

Pelton has 15 and 13 as worth between the 2nd and 3rd pick, which seems kind of insane, but I looked at 6-10 years ago (because those players are who they are by now basically) and #13 or #15 included guys like Giannis, Lavine, Kawhi and Booker and lots of busts at 2 or 3 so it does seem to check out.

Can't see the top 3 moving and OKC doesn't need more picks, but using the current draft order, maybe Indiana moving #5 for 13 and 15 for 5 isn't crazy, or Portland at 6 or Sacramento at 7. All those teams need a starting forward and I think at the moment I'd bet on 4-7 only maybe including Keegan Murray in that group (Ivey, Sharpe, Mathurin the others, as I have them ahead of Griffin) so maybe going from Keegan Murray to hoping one of Davis (a 2 guard, but those teams aren't set there really apart from Duarte in Indy and he can probably be a 2/3), Sochan or Eason fall to 13 is worth also getting the #15 pick, especially for rebuilding teams which Indiana and Sacramento might not want to be but should think of themselves as. They could draft a project with great tools like Kendall Brown or a potential starting center in Mark Williams or a guy from the next tier who they love after workouts that will be moving up over the next few months as always occur, or literally any foreign player since only Daniels might be gone.

It’s a moronic take. Nobody is trading a top 3 pick for 13 and 15.

Pelton is wildly off on the values of the higher picks.

We are in the midst of the top picks being pretty ordinary for a decade and a half or so now. Starting in 2005 (LeBron was 2003 #1 and Dwight Howard was 2004), the #1 overall has been Bogut, Bargnani, Oden, D-Rose, Griffin, Wall, Kyrie, AD, Anthony Bennett, Andrew Wiggins, KAT, Simmons, Fultz, Ayton, Zion, Anthony Edwards, Cade. Don't get me wrong-- a lot of those guys are all-stars, but we've populated half the NBA with a #1 pick that hasn't been a 1A scoring option on a championship team, only two second bananas, and a 1x MVP in Rose. The #2 overall pick has KD being the only 1A/MVP since then.

Half the all-stars in this year's ASG were picks outside of the top 5, sometimes well outside the top 5. The last two MVPs (covering four years) were taken outside the top 10. A top 2 pick hasn't won MVP since 2013-14.

So, yeah. #3 overall for #13 and #15? Sure, if this is 2013 and it's Otto Porter Jr. for Kelly Olynyk and Giannis. Or 2015 if it's Jahlil Okafor for Devin Booker and Kelly Oubre. 2017 you probably don't trade the #3 (Tatum) for #13 and #15 (Mitchell and Justin Jackson), but you probably trade anyone else in the top 10.

That's the thing, the draft is kind of a crapshoot. There's more talent but also plenty of chances for the top guys to not pan out.

I'm enjoying this back and forth.

I'd add that Pelton is probably right that teams usually overpay to move up - I wish my Griz would stop doing it - but I think he's off on the specifics of pick value, because he assigns a fixed value per win to player's production (see https://insider.espn.com/nba/draft2015/insider/story/_/id/13143349/nba-draft-trading-pick-usually-costly-move). But, if your goal is winning a championship, a guy who produces 16 wins in 32mpg is more than twice as valuable as a guy who produces 8 in the same amount of court time.

You need to apply a nonlinear multiplier to those WP scores before comparing them to salaries, and that underrates the value of the top picks, which still (Pelton's stats make clear) product more wins that the others.

[toooskies]

It’s a moronic take. Nobody is trading a top 3 pick for 13 and 15.

Pelton is wildly off on the values of the higher picks.

We are in the midst of the top picks being pretty ordinary for a decade and a half or so now. Starting in 2005 (LeBron was 2003 #1 and Dwight Howard was 2004), the #1 overall has been Bogut, Bargnani, Oden, D-Rose, Griffin, Wall, Kyrie, AD, Anthony Bennett, Andrew Wiggins, KAT, Simmons, Fultz, Ayton, Zion, Anthony Edwards, Cade. Don't get me wrong-- a lot of those guys are all-stars, but we've populated half the NBA with a #1 pick that hasn't been a 1A scoring option on a championship team, only two second bananas, and a 1x MVP in Rose. The #2 overall pick has KD being the only 1A/MVP since then.

Half the all-stars in this year's ASG were picks outside of the top 5, sometimes well outside the top 5. The last two MVPs (covering four years) were taken outside the top 10. A top 2 pick hasn't won MVP since 2013-14.

So, yeah. #3 overall for #13 and #15? Sure, if this is 2013 and it's Otto Porter Jr. for Kelly Olynyk and Giannis. Or 2015 if it's Jahlil Okafor for Devin Booker and Kelly Oubre. 2017 you probably don't trade the #3 (Tatum) for #13 and #15 (Mitchell and Justin Jackson), but you probably trade anyone else in the top 10.

That's the thing, the draft is kind of a crapshoot. There's more talent but also plenty of chances for the top guys to not pan out.

I'm enjoying this back and forth.

I'd add that Pelton is probably right that teams usually overpay to move up - I wish my Griz would stop doing it - but I think he's off on the specifics of pick value, because he assigns a fixed value per win to player's production (see https://insider.espn.com/nba/draft2015/insider/story/_/id/13143349/nba-draft-trading-pick-usually-costly-move). But, if your goal is winning a championship, a guy who produces 16 wins in 32mpg is more than twice as valuable as a guy who produces 8 in the same amount of court time.

You need to apply a nonlinear multiplier to those WP scores before comparing them to salaries, and that underrates the value of the top picks, which still (Pelton's stats make clear) product more wins that the others.

I sort of agree on the methodology, although guys like Giannis and Jokic (and Gobert when looking at analytics) are going to skew that number away from the top picks.

And also... Sometimes your stars take up so much salary that you're forced to run out Wenyen Gabriel in another spot on the floor. The Lakers being the most obvious example.

[MasterIchiro]

We are in the midst of the top picks being pretty ordinary for a decade and a half or so now. Starting in 2005 (LeBron was 2003 #1 and Dwight Howard was 2004), the #1 overall has been Bogut, Bargnani, Oden, D-Rose, Griffin, Wall, Kyrie, AD, Anthony Bennett, Andrew Wiggins, KAT, Simmons, Fultz, Ayton, Zion, Anthony Edwards, Cade. Don't get me wrong-- a lot of those guys are all-stars, but we've populated half the NBA with a #1 pick that hasn't been a 1A scoring option on a championship team, only two second bananas, and a 1x MVP in Rose. The #2 overall pick has KD being the only 1A/MVP since then.

Half the all-stars in this year's ASG were picks outside of the top 5, sometimes well outside the top 5. The last two MVPs (covering four years) were taken outside the top 10. A top 2 pick hasn't won MVP since 2013-14.

So, yeah. #3 overall for #13 and #15? Sure, if this is 2013 and it's Otto Porter Jr. for Kelly Olynyk and Giannis. Or 2015 if it's Jahlil Okafor for Devin Booker and Kelly Oubre. 2017 you probably don't trade the #3 (Tatum) for #13 and #15 (Mitchell and Justin Jackson), but you probably trade anyone else in the top 10.

That's the thing, the draft is kind of a crapshoot. There's more talent but also plenty of chances for the top guys to not pan out.

I'm enjoying this back and forth.

I'd add that Pelton is probably right that teams usually overpay to move up - I wish my Griz would stop doing it - but I think he's off on the specifics of pick value, because he assigns a fixed value per win to player's production (see https://insider.espn.com/nba/draft2015/insider/story/_/id/13143349/nba-draft-trading-pick-usually-costly-move). But, if your goal is winning a championship, a guy who produces 16 wins in 32mpg is more than twice as valuable as a guy who produces 8 in the same amount of court time.

You need to apply a nonlinear multiplier to those WP scores before comparing them to salaries, and that underrates the value of the top picks, which still (Pelton's stats make clear) product more wins that the others.

I sort of agree on the methodology, although guys like Giannis and Jokic (and Gobert when looking at analytics) are going to skew that number away from the top picks.

And also... Sometimes your stars take up so much salary that you're forced to run out Wenyen Gabriel in another spot on the floor. The Lakers being the most obvious example.

Pick value is difficult to quantify because the quality and effectiveness of a scouting department factors into play. Personally, I feel the Hornets' GM has demonstrated effective drafting in the first and second rounds. Kupchak is capable of landing two hits if the scouting departments ahead in the draft miss. Imagine Tari Eason falling. Kai Jones fell out of the lottery and Kupchak reentered the first round to grab him. Bouknight fell and he had Bouk "much higher" than 11 and was considering Kai in a group of targets at 11. The GM has to assess other scouting departments who could be targeting a given player of interest. He has to rank other scouting departments. Then determine whether he must attempt to trade up past them if possible in order to acquire a target. Right now, I would be trying to trade 13 + 15 for Duren or Mathurin.

[PhilBlackson]

I just think you guys need to get some better, long defenders into your rotation...

I agree with most people with taking one of Duren (less likely he's still available) or Williams with your first pick because it's obvious in the East, having a true C is gonna be a requirement. Then I'd look at taking Eason (first) or Sochan to get a guy to space out the floor with some shooting but also help fill in the holes defensively on the perimeter.

[SeattleJazzFan]

load up on defense. as long as ball is there the hornets will be able to score. get a rim protector (williams would be ideal) and a versatile wing defender.

[BlazersBroncos]

I like Mark Williams and Kendall Brown for them.

Williams hedges the Kai pick and if both work out, provides a nice contrast to the skills Kai brings.
Brown as a versatile, twitchy low usage defender to develop.

[Ell Curry]

I like Mark Williams and Kendall Brown for them.

Williams hedges the Kai pick and if both work out, provides a nice contrast to the skills Kai brings.
Brown as a versatile, twitchy low usage defender to develop.

If it's D'Antoni, maybe trade 13, 15 and a future unprotected 2nd rounder for 9 and 20 from the Spurs and draft Sochan to be their Boris Diaw?

[SelfishPlayer]

Now that Atkinson is the coach, his coaching style developed and raised the value of several guards. I believe the Hornets should concentrate on drafting long full time perimeter players that can play with LaMelo rather than including some of the power forwards and centers that project to do well with LaMelo. It has been proven that you can add veterans to fill that role along the way as you start contending. Names? Bennedict Mathurin, SG Ochai Agbaji, Tari Eason, Kendall Brown, MarJon Beauchamp, Jalen Williams, Gabriel Procida, Dalen Terry, Peyton Watson.

The Hornets should pass on Shaedon Sharpe. The risk of him being either a project or a bust is too high. The Hornets don't have time to wait on projects drafted in the first round and can't afford to completely miss while "shooting for the stars." I haven't seen star qualities in this player.

Andrew Nembhard, Christian Braun, and Wendell Moore look like decent backup lead ball handlers if available in the second round.

[Wizop]

One of jalen duren and Mark Williams as the centre. Other one is whoever is available bpa.

Agree. Maybe Eason or Branhim as the second pick.

Sent from my Pixel 6 using RealGM mobile app

[yosemiteben]

Kai Jones will be their 5. People forgot he was drafted because Borrego refused to play him. When he finally does start people will realize how dumb Borrego was for not playing him and how absurd it is to suggest the smaller Duren should be drafted to be their center. Now, if you want to take Williams and play Jones at the 4 in a JJJ type role then that makes sense. If I’m CHA I’m taking a 3 and D wing to eventually replace Hayward or Bridges if he leaves, with the other pick.

Borrego didn't buck management. The organization reached consensus about the development timeline for Kai the day he was drafted.

and he was languishing on the bench, not being used, while Borrego ran with a laughable rotation of bigs which was the main reason why they lost so many games. Borrego would not have been fired had he and management "reached consensus" No chance.

Was scrolling around here and found this exchange. FWIW, it does appear that the FO wasn't thrilled with Borrego's use of our rookies.

Quote from Mitch Kupchak's presser after JB was fired:

Read on Twitter

[clyde21]

of course Mitch is gonna say that about his picks, but I agree about Thor, still like him. was never a huge fan of Bouk tho. he can be an explosive scorer but doesn't really do much else and can be highly inefficient overall.

[MemphisX]

If I am the Hornets, I take two big wings/forwards. I would not waste another 1st rounder on a 5. Just sign one in free agency.

Sochan, Dieng, Eason, Dyson, Dalen Terry, Jalen Williams, Johnny Davis, AJ Griffin...get two of them.

[Skybox]

I like where CHA's at, especially considering their roster needs...personally, I like Williams over Duren. Williams excelled in a much more disciplined, winning environment on a stacked Duke Final 4 team. He sticks to his role and crushes it. Duren might have athletic advantages, but I don't trust what's between his ears and coming from that wild MEM situation - I see more bust potential. Either would be a win, but I'd take Williams, plug him in to a limited but crucial role, take him for granted, and get back to running and gunning with Lamelo.

[moss_is_1]

BPA. Lamelo is good, and obviously have a big hole at center. Mark Williams seems like he should be there and would make sense, though I think Duren would be better for them. Honestly if they see someone as a star, use those picks and middling pieces to move up and secure your guy. Definitely should focus on getting better defensively.

Say you can't move up - then I'd take Williams with 15, but at 13 I'm taking Eason, Sochan, Dieng if they're still on the board. Otherwise take one of Branham, Davis, Beauchamp, Jalen Williams, Kendall Brown. Maybe Dalen Terry could be a nice fit as well.