Jarace Walker vs. Taylor Hendricks

[Village Idiot]

On my big board (for Portland) I have it:

1. Wemby
--------------------------------------------- big gap
2. Walker
3. Amen
4. Miller
5. Hendricks
6. Scoot
----------------------------------- big gap
7. GG
8. Whitmore
9. Ausar
10. Black
11. Lively

--------------------------gap

[Hal14]

Brandon Miller played this season at age 20.

I wonder if 2 years ago, when he was 18...if you had put Brandon Miller on South Carolina - what would his stats have been?

I wonder if last year, when Jarace was 18, if you had put him on South Carolina, what his stats would have been?

I wonder if last year, when Hendricks was 18, if you had put him on South Carolina, what his stats would have been?

2 years from now - when GG is 20, if you put him on Aalabama, I wonder what his stats would be? A year from now, when he's 19, if you put GG on Houston, I wonder what his stats would have been? Next year, when he's 19, if you put GG on UCF, I wonder would his stats would be?

[Hal14]

On my big board (for Portland) I have it:

1. Wemby
--------------------------------------------- big gap
2. Walker
3. Amen
4. Miller
5. Hendricks
6. Scoot
----------------------------------- big gap
7. GG
8. Whitmore
9. Ausar
10. Black
11. Lively

--------------------------gap

Wow. Interesting. Walker at 2, Scoot at 6, Lively at 11.

I like that you're not afraid to go against the grain. Any rationale behind those rankings?

[JMAC3]

Plus, there was plenty of times where he made good passes this season at South Carolina - but dudes just missed open shots or smoked layups. So it's understandable for that to get frustrating for a guy - especially a dude who's only 17/18. It also helps explain why his assist rate was so low.

I mean 27 ast to 86 tov is not explained away just by guys missing shots. 0.3 A:TOV is just turrrrible.

People have to put aside the facial similarity to Giannis and actually be objective about this kid. Everything about him is overrated.

Again, nobody forced GG to go to college early or go to an awful team in South Carolina. He chose to go to a bad team where he could be the man. Rather than go to a school with a less role. I am not going to feel sorry for him for that and ignore him shooting 38% from the field on a team that went 11-21. He took the most shots, had the most turnovers, missed the most free throws etc etc he was a big reason for them being bad. Didn't seem like he elevated guys around him.

I expect some team full of veterans to take him in the lottery, would I do it? Hell no. Hence why I am lower on him than consensus by a good margin, which basically takes him off the board for me.

[Hal14]

Plus, there was plenty of times where he made good passes this season at South Carolina - but dudes just missed open shots or smoked layups. So it's understandable for that to get frustrating for a guy - especially a dude who's only 17/18. It also helps explain why his assist rate was so low.

I mean 27 ast to 86 tov is not explained away just by guys missing shots. 0.3 A:TOV is just turrrrible.

People have to put aside the facial similarity to Giannis and actually be objective about this kid. Everything about him is overrated.

Again, nobody forced GG to go to college early or go to an awful team in South Carolina. He chose to go to a bad team where he could be the man. Rather than go to a school with a less role. I am not going to feel sorry for him for that and ignore him shooting 38% from the field on a team that went 11-21. He took the most shots, had the most turnovers, missed the most free throws etc etc he was a big reason for them being bad. Didn't seem like he elevated guys around him.

I expect some team full of veterans to take him in the lottery, would I do it? Hell no. Hence why I am lower on him than consensus by a good margin, which basically takes him off the board for me.

You keep saying this, but I don't understand why the hell this matters in terms of his draft stock.

You can say this till you're blue in the face. But actual NBA scouts are going to use logic and ask themselves these types of questions in order to make a more informed evaluation about a player:

Brandon Miller played this season at age 20. if 2 years ago, when he was 18...if you had put Brandon Miller on South Carolina - what would his stats have been? I wonder if last year, when Jarace was 18, if you had put him on South Carolina, what his stats would have been? I wonder if last year, when Hendricks was 18, if you had put him on South Carolina, what his stats would have been?

2 years from now - when GG is 20, if you put him on Alabama, I wonder what his stats would be? A year from now, when he's 19, if you put GG on Houston, I wonder what his stats would have been? Next year, when he's 19, if you put GG on UCF, I wonder would his stats would be?

He chose the school he chose and he chose to reclassify when he should have still been a HS senior. Rather than punish him for those choices, a skilled talent evaluator simply takes those choices into context.

[EvanZ]

2 years from now - when GG is 20, if you put him on Alabama, I wonder what his stats would be? A year from now, when he's 19, if you put GG on Houston, I wonder what his stats would have been? Next year, when he's 19, if you put GG on UCF, I wonder would his stats would be?

I had this same hope for Emoni (-0.4 BPM as an even younger Freshman than GG) when he transferred to Eastern Michigan. Turns out he got even worse (-0.7 BPM).

[EvanZ]

I expect some team full of veterans to take him in the lottery, would I do it? Hell no. Hence why I am lower on him than consensus by a good margin, which basically takes him off the board for me.

It's not a team full of veterans. It's OKC at 12. We all know it. Ousmane Dieng is actually a pretty good comp for him, except GG doesn't pass.

[The Moose]

I mean 27 ast to 86 tov is not explained away just by guys missing shots. 0.3 A:TOV is just turrrrible.

People have to put aside the facial similarity to Giannis and actually be objective about this kid. Everything about him is overrated.

Again, nobody forced GG to go to college early or go to an awful team in South Carolina. He chose to go to a bad team where he could be the man. Rather than go to a school with a less role. I am not going to feel sorry for him for that and ignore him shooting 38% from the field on a team that went 11-21. He took the most shots, had the most turnovers, missed the most free throws etc etc he was a big reason for them being bad. Didn't seem like he elevated guys around him.

I expect some team full of veterans to take him in the lottery, would I do it? Hell no. Hence why I am lower on him than consensus by a good margin, which basically takes him off the board for me.

You keep saying this, but I don't understand why the hell this matters in terms of his draft stock.

You can say this till you're blue in the face. But actual NBA scouts are going to use logic and ask themselves these types of questions in order to make a more informed evaluation about a player:

Brandon Miller played this season at age 20. if 2 years ago, when he was 18...if you had put Brandon Miller on South Carolina - what would his stats have been? I wonder if last year, when Jarace was 18, if you had put him on South Carolina, what his stats would have been? I wonder if last year, when Hendricks was 18, if you had put him on South Carolina, what his stats would have been?

2 years from now - when GG is 20, if you put him on Alabama, I wonder what his stats would be? A year from now, when he's 19, if you put GG on Houston, I wonder what his stats would have been? Next year, when he's 19, if you put GG on UCF, I wonder would his stats would be?

He chose the school he chose and he chose to reclassify when he should have still been a HS senior. Rather than punish him for those choices, a skilled talent evaluator simply takes those choices into context.

Making decisions based on complete hypotheticals is probably not the best foundation to build an evaluation of a prospect. We can speculate on hypotheticals until we’re blue in the face , but what we actually know, for sure, is that he grades terribly this year.

You asked the question Walker vs Hendricks vs Jackson, Jackson’s only real argument over the other 2 is based on hypotheticals and ‘potential’, the other 2 had very productive seasons by freshman standards.

[Hal14]

Again, nobody forced GG to go to college early or go to an awful team in South Carolina. He chose to go to a bad team where he could be the man. Rather than go to a school with a less role. I am not going to feel sorry for him for that and ignore him shooting 38% from the field on a team that went 11-21. He took the most shots, had the most turnovers, missed the most free throws etc etc he was a big reason for them being bad. Didn't seem like he elevated guys around him.

I expect some team full of veterans to take him in the lottery, would I do it? Hell no. Hence why I am lower on him than consensus by a good margin, which basically takes him off the board for me.

You keep saying this, but I don't understand why the hell this matters in terms of his draft stock.

You can say this till you're blue in the face. But actual NBA scouts are going to use logic and ask themselves these types of questions in order to make a more informed evaluation about a player:

Brandon Miller played this season at age 20. if 2 years ago, when he was 18...if you had put Brandon Miller on South Carolina - what would his stats have been? I wonder if last year, when Jarace was 18, if you had put him on South Carolina, what his stats would have been? I wonder if last year, when Hendricks was 18, if you had put him on South Carolina, what his stats would have been?

2 years from now - when GG is 20, if you put him on Alabama, I wonder what his stats would be? A year from now, when he's 19, if you put GG on Houston, I wonder what his stats would have been? Next year, when he's 19, if you put GG on UCF, I wonder would his stats would be?

He chose the school he chose and he chose to reclassify when he should have still been a HS senior. Rather than punish him for those choices, a skilled talent evaluator simply takes those choices into context.

Making decisions based on complete hypotheticals is probably not the best foundation to build an evaluation of a prospect. We can speculate on hypotheticals until we’re blue in the face , but what we actually know, for sure, is that he grades terribly this year.

You asked the question Walker vs Hendricks vs Jackson, Jackson’s only real argument over the other 2 is based on hypotheticals and ‘potential’, the other 2 had very productive seasons by freshman standards.

They also have a lower ceiling / less upside.

It's the ole production vs potential debate.

Again, if I'm the 26th best team in a 30 team league - I might want to take a swing at the guy with more upside to try and really make a big splash. If the pick works out, we could shoot up from 26th in the league to being a playoff team within the next couple years. But if I play it safe and pick the guy with less upside and he pans out, 2 yrs from now we're still only gonna be like 24th in the league, right back in the lottery - wishing we took the guy who had a higher ceiling..

But if the pick doesn't work out, we're still going to be a bad team - regardless of whether I took the higher upside guy or the higher floor guy.

[Village Idiot]

On my big board (for Portland) I have it:

1. Wemby
--------------------------------------------- big gap
2. Walker
3. Amen
4. Miller
5. Hendricks
6. Scoot
----------------------------------- big gap
7. GG
8. Whitmore
9. Ausar
10. Black
11. Lively

--------------------------gap

Wow. Interesting. Walker at 2, Scoot at 6, Lively at 11.

I like that you're not afraid to go against the grain. Any rationale behind those rankings?

I see Walker as a similar contributor/role as Draymond Green to Scottie Barnes. Super high BBIQ, fantastic defender, ultimate connector. He's never going to lead the league in scoring but he's a glue guy.

I like Amen a quite big more than Scoot. While neither has a good enough jumper Amen's size and defense are clear advantages.

Miller and Henricks fill the universally desired all-around forward role. GG is oozing with potential. Sure, he has his warts but the things he does well are really strong for his position, body type. With good coaching and hard work I can see him putting up all-star numbers on offense he becoming acceptable on D. I can also see him crashing and burning but he's a high-reward/high-risk guy.

Lively is the only good center in this draft besided Wemby and his defensive versatility and lack of a need for offensive touches have some appeal, especially for the Blazers.

[tester551]

They also have a lower ceiling / less upside.

GG may have a 'higher ceiling', but the likelihood of him achieving it is <10%

Walker/Hendricks have much higher floors. I can easily see both having long, productive careers on good teams.
I wouldn't be surprised if GG has a career arc like Kevin Knox (basically a fringe NBA player fighting for a roster spot by the end of their rookie contract).

[JMAC3]

I don't think anyone is arguing if GG has the highest upside of the 3, but as mentioned his bbiq, decision making, attitude make him reaching his ceiling lower IMO. I probably am wrong. If I am I can live with him being a super solid #2 option for someone else. I can't live with taking him in the top 10 and being Kevin Knox or Cliff Alexander.

Around pick 20 is when I start to really consider him, anything before that and I would rather move in another direction. Most likely he is gone by 20, if that is case I am fine with it.

[EvanZ]

GG's ceiling is vastly overrated. First of all he's not that physically special as many seem to think. He's 6'9" with a 6'10" wingspan. This isn't KD with a 7'5" wingspan or even Giannis with a 7'3" wingspan. It's not even close. Furthermore, he's not an elite athlete. He's fine. Hendricks is easily similar if not more explosive than GG. Hendricks had 36 dunks this season compared to only 18 for GG.

Look, guys. If you told me GG sucked this year but he's got a 7'5" wingspan and had 60 dunks and a 1:1 A:TOV I'd be on this kid like white on rice. But that isn't what we have here. What we have here is a fairly ordinary 6'9" dude who because he looks like Giannis and takes a million perimeter shots people think he's some mystery box worth betting the farm on. I'm here to tell you it's not going to be worth it.

Remember Louis King? No? Well, there you go.

[Hal14]

GG's ceiling is vastly overrated. First of all he's not that physically special as many seem to think. He's 6'9" with a 6'10" wingspan. This isn't KD with a 7'5" wingspan or even Giannis with a 7'3" wingspan. It's not even close. Furthermore, he's not an elite athlete. He's fine. Hendricks is easily similar if not more explosive than GG. Hendricks had 36 dunks this season compared to only 18 for GG.

Look, guys. If you told me GG sucked this year but he's got a 7'5" wingspan and had 60 dunks and a 1:1 A:TOV I'd be on this kid like white on rice. But that isn't what we have here. What we have here is a fairly ordinary 6'9" dude who because he looks like Giannis and takes a million perimeter shots people think he's some mystery box worth betting the farm on. I'm here to tell you it's not going to be worth it.

Remember Louis King? No? Well, there you go.

How many of those dunks for each player were unassisted? Hendricks (for the most part) got dunks by just standing there in the dunker's spot and having a teammate pass it to him wide open.

And Hendricks stood out on the perimeter and hit easy catch and shoot 3's.

Meanwhile, GG had to create looks for himself. He had more isolation plays than any player in college basketball. When he did get catch and shoot looks though, he was effective (was above average on C&S jumpers).

GG played in a tougher conference, was higher rated coming out of HS and is a year younger than Hendricks.

But if you're just gonna cherry pick stats, while refusing to acknowledge the context behind them, then you mine as well sit the conversation out.

[Hal14]

I don't think anyone is arguing if GG has the highest upside of the 3, but as mentioned his bbiq, decision making, attitude make him reaching his ceiling lower IMO. I probably am wrong. If I am I can live with him being a super solid #2 option for someone else. I can't live with taking him in the top 10 and being Kevin Knox or Cliff Alexander.

Around pick 20 is when I start to really consider him, anything before that and I would rather move in another direction. Most likely he is gone by 20, if that is case I am fine with it.

Wait. So you're admitting that GG has higher upside than Hendricks and Jarace.

But you're saying that GG has a lower probability of reaching of reaching his ceiling, which is fair.

So if 1 guy has a higher ceiling but a lower floor, and the other 2 guys have lower ceiling but a higher floor. Theoretically, wouldn't that mean that all 3 would probably be ranked in the same tier? Then which order you take them in would just be a matter of personal preference, team context, how the guy does in the predraft process ?

You've said you got Jarace and Hendricks top 10 but GG in the 20's, though. I'm just not understanding why there would be such a big gap. If anything, wouldn't the higher ceiling guy be ranked higher? I mean, these guys are all 5 star recruits, after all. Oh wait, they're not. walker was a 5 star, ranked 10th. GG was a 5 star, ranked 16th (despite being a year younger than Jarace and not benefitting from playing on a stacked IMG team) and Hendricks was a 4 star, ranked 59th.

Seems like most of you guys on here are just really risk averse. Which is fine, I guess. For the record, GG is #10 on my board at the moment.

And lol @ mentioning Kevin Knox anytime someone is not high on a prospect.

[EvanZ]

GG's ceiling is vastly overrated. First of all he's not that physically special as many seem to think. He's 6'9" with a 6'10" wingspan. This isn't KD with a 7'5" wingspan or even Giannis with a 7'3" wingspan. It's not even close. Furthermore, he's not an elite athlete. He's fine. Hendricks is easily similar if not more explosive than GG. Hendricks had 36 dunks this season compared to only 18 for GG.

Look, guys. If you told me GG sucked this year but he's got a 7'5" wingspan and had 60 dunks and a 1:1 A:TOV I'd be on this kid like white on rice. But that isn't what we have here. What we have here is a fairly ordinary 6'9" dude who because he looks like Giannis and takes a million perimeter shots people think he's some mystery box worth betting the farm on. I'm here to tell you it's not going to be worth it.

Remember Louis King? No? Well, there you go.

How many of those dunks for each player were unassisted? Hendricks (for the most part) got dunks by just standing there in the dunker's spot and having a teammate pass it to him wide open.

And Hendricks stood out on the perimeter and hit easy catch and shoot 3's.

Meanwhile, GG had to create looks for himself. He had more isolation plays than any player in college basketball. When he did get catch and shoot looks though, he was effective (was above average on C&S jumpers).

GG played in a tougher conference, was higher rated coming out of HS and is a year younger than Hendricks.

But if you're just gonna cherry pick stats, while refusing to acknowledge the context behind them, then you mine as well sit the conversation out.

You can stop with the "context" stuff. We all get it. But 18 dunks is 18 dunks. It's just not a lot for a guy who people think is some elite athlete. I mean, jesus, Taylor having 36 dunks is not even that great. Is that enough "context" for you?

I get that you're trying to convince yourself of something here, which is fine. But hopefully you go into it more objective than you seem to be.

[EvanZ]

You know you're going down the wrong track when you have to start making a million different excuses for prospects as to why they'll be great in the future when they sucked in a much easier context than they'll ever see again in their lives.

News Flash: The NBA is ridiculously hard.

[JMAC3]

So if 1 guy has a higher ceiling but a lower floor, and the other 2 guys have lower ceiling but a higher floor. Theoretically, wouldn't that mean that all 3 would probably be ranked in the same tier? Then which order you take them in would just be a matter of personal preference, team context, how the guy does in the predraft process ?

This is such a blanket statement, all players have different ceilings and floors that is what separates them into different tiers.

Dariq Whitehead could be argued to have a high ceiling just like GG, doesn't mean he should be pushed up boards automatically.

[The-Power]

I don't think anyone is arguing if GG has the highest upside of the 3

I would (as in: I don't think he has the highest ceiling).

[mattao313]

I don't think anyone is arguing if GG has the highest upside of the 3

I would (as in: I don't think he has the highest ceiling).

Who do you think has the highest ceiling

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