Allen Graves

[JMAC3]

They were just more important players for their teams and more productive. Allen Graves entire case to be drafted highly is based on smaller sample size of minutes, off the bench and putting up less numbers.

Podz 1150 mins, 19.9 ppg, 8.8 rpg, 3.7 apg
JDub 1150 mins, 18 ppg, 4.4 rpg, 4.4 apg
Graves 791 mins, 11.8 ppg, 6.5 rpg, 1.8 apg

I just prefer to trust the raw numbers at the weaker competition levels instead of falling in love with analytic profiles. Graves was 3rd option, not the first option like other two.

Using total minutes played instead of minutes per game shouldn't be done here, it's a little misleading.
Graves had plenty of production in his minutes.

Per 40 minutes:

22.1 PTS on 60.2% TS, 9.7 TRB (2.0 ORB), 4.1 AST / 2.5 TOV, 2.0 STL, 0.5 BLK - 20 years, 3 months old Brandin Podziemski
20.7 PTS on 60.1% TS, 5.1 TRB, (0.7 ORB) 4.8 AST / 2.4 TOV, 1.4 STL, 0.6 BLK - 21 years, 2 months old Jalen Williams
20.8 PTS on 61.3% TS, 11.5 TRB (5.0 ORB), 3.2 AST / 1.3 TOV, 3.4 STL, 1.7 BLK - 19 years, 10 months old Allen Graves*

*Ages from draft day following the college season.

791 minutes should be enough to establish that it's a pattern that he produces these box score stats at a high level. This isn't 100 or 200 minutes that it could just be a fluke due to small sample size.

In fact, 791 minutes is the majority of his team's minutes (he played 56% of the team's minutes). Then, in these minutes, he still was first-team All-WCC (just like Jalen Williams), so he was recognized for being important to the team. He also played with significantly better teammates than either Podziemski or Williams had.

Telling me using total minutes is misleading instead of minutes per game... but then using per 40 numbers is way more misleading lol

[CptCrunch]

Allen Graves does have translation concerns. If you go to this view and click on his game (http://vstatball.com?s=e3c601), you'll see his game log. Graves did crap the bed this season against all his good competition games. Santa Clara played a few decent teams.

But as a whole, based on my analysis of translation from college to NBA, does performance against bad/good teams matter? It's a resounding no or at least the signal is too weak within all the variance. Performing well against bad teams is still helpful in assigning a baseline level of performance.

[JMAC3]

I said it in the Mara thread, but at a certain point in this draft the talent falls off a cliff. I had Graves around pick 20-25, if that is where everyone else has him then great. I just have seen him absurdly high on some boards and to me taking him top 10 is such a shot in the dark based on what we have seen.

[Caneman786]

Telling me using total minutes is misleading instead of minutes per game... but then using per 40 numbers is way more misleading lol

How come? It directly adjusts for Graves playing less minutes, and shows that his raw production is comparable to (if not superior to!) both Podziemski and Williams's productions.

It would be less misleading if you used all of total points, total rebounds, total minutes instead of mixing them up.

And for good measure here are the numbers against top 50 teams. With the raw production since you prefer that.

Against top 50 teams, raw numbers (per game numbers like you stated earlier):

32.8 Minutes per game, 5 games - 13.8 PTS on 49.3% TS, 5.2 TRB (1.8 ORB), 2.4 AST / 1.4 TOV, 0.6 STL, 0.4 BLK - Brandin Podziemski
35.4 Minutes per game, 10 games - 17.5 PTS on 54.8% TS, 4.6 TRB (0.6 ORB), 4.8 AST / 2.8 TOV, 1.1 STL, 0.6 BLK - Jalen Williams
26.8 Minutes per game, 9 games - 13.9 PTS on 58.9% TS, 6.2 TRB (2.6 ORB), 1.3 AST / 0.8 TOV, 1.9 STL, 0.4 BLK - Allen Graves

Now for good measure to show this same thing per 40 minutes:

16.8 PTS on 49.3% TS, 6.3 TRB (2.2 ORB), 2.9 AST / 1.7 TOV, 0.7 STL, 0.5 BLK - 20 years, 3 months old Brandin Podziemski in 164 minutes played.
19.7 PTS on 54.8% TS, 5.2 TRB, (0.7 ORB), 5.4 AST / 3.2 TOV, 1.2 STL, 0.7 BLK - 21 years, 2 months old Jalen Williams in 354 minutes played.
20.7 PTS on 58.9% TS, 9.3 TRB (3.8 ORB), 2.0 AST / 1.2 TOV, 2.8 STL, 0.7 BLK - 19 years, 10 months old Allen Graves* in 241 minutes played.

It's pretty crazy how when you put these Santa Clara prospects against the top college teams, Allen Graves produces more than Podziemski in less minutes, no adjustments for minutes played needed. Adjusting for the minutes (something which is very valid and I don't know why there should be any issue with it) just blows the comparison with Podziemski out of the water, and then brings his numbers above Williams' as well.

The shooting efficiency resilience for Graves is also very notable, compared to Williams and especially Podziemski's.

If anything, you should have been having these questions about Podziemski and Williams having fake stats and a small sample size against better competition, since this makes Graves' stats seem like teflon (while Podziemski's stats collapse against the top teams and Williams looks marginally worse).

Of course, since someone might try to say this, I'm not saying that Graves will turn out better in the NBA than Podziemski or especially Williams. However, it is conclusive that as of today, his pre-draft statistical profile should definitely be held in higher regard than either of those two's statistical profiles.

[JMAC3]

You must think Santa Clara has the worst coach in college if he was only playing Graves 22 mpg and he was just as good as Podz and JDub. Their coach must hate winning games if he was purposefully playing Graves limited minutes all year if he is as good as his BPM and per40 says he is.

Also, no offense but you just copying and pasting stats and not talking about his style of play, role or skill set kind of shows you are just looking at spreadsheets and not watching much of the player.

We aren't going to agree because a guy who isn't playing is usually not playing for a reason, not because the coach is too dumb to play him.

[Caneman786]

You must think Santa Clara has the worst coach in college if he was only playing Graves 22 mpg and he was just as good as Podz and JDub. Their coach must hate winning games if he was purposefully playing Graves limited minutes all year if he is as good as his BPM and per40 says he is.

I don't think Santa Clara has the worst coach in basketball, the coach is one of the best ones. The reason Graves plays this little is because he fouls a lot on defense (and he scales back this aggressiveness against good teams, where the coach needs to rely on him more). It's his major flaw.

Also, no offense but you just copying and pasting stats and not talking about his style of play, role or skill set kind of shows you are just looking at spreadsheets and not watching much of the player.

No offense taken. I did indeed watch multiple Santa Clara basketball games, including all four of the tournament games.

I'm only pushing back on your approach to using the statistics, which is all you are mentioning and that's why I am only mentioning that.

My question for you is why would Graves' stats be "fraudulent" if his numbers remain very high against top-level college competition, and on a much better level than either of the two past Santa Clara draft prospects Williams and Podziemski?

He has performed very well, at lottery pick level, in multiple games against Gonzaga including the WCC title game, his game against Saint Louis, all three games against Saint Mary's, and in the NCAA tournament against Kentucky (which may not show up in the stat sheet necessarily but if you watched the game you'd know how he took over at the end, and how it only took one of the most miraculous shots in March Madness history for Graves not to be known as the guy who hit the game winner).

Because of this, I'd say he has shown he can hang against the top college teams, and that the numbers aren't "fraudulent" (your exact wording). If he were to go back to school next year, it doesn't seem likely at all that he would fall off a cliff and not be considered for the draft. Even in the rare possibility that it did happen, there isn't anything suggesting that it's likely to happen as of right now, which is why I am confused at this idea you have.

[JMAC3]

You must think Santa Clara has the worst coach in college if he was only playing Graves 22 mpg and he was just as good as Podz and JDub. Their coach must hate winning games if he was purposefully playing Graves limited minutes all year if he is as good as his BPM and per40 says he is.

I don't think Santa Clara has the worst coach in basketball, the coach is one of the best ones. The reason he plays this little is because Graves fouls a lot on defense (and he scales back this aggressiveness against good teams, where the coach needs to rely on him more). It's his major flaw.

Also, no offense but you just copying and pasting stats and not talking about his style of play, role or skill set kind of shows you are just looking at spreadsheets and not watching much of the player.

No offense taken. I did indeed watch multiple Santa Clara basketball games, including all of the tournament games.

I'm only pushing back on your approach to using the statistics, which is all you are mentioning and that's why I am only mentioning that.

My question for you is why would Graves' stats be fraudulent if his numbers remain very high against top-level college competition, and on a much better level than either of the two past Santa Clara draft prospects Williams and Podziemski?

He has performed well in multiple games against Gonzaga, his game against Saint Louis, all three games against Saint Mary's, and in the NCAA tournament against Kentucky (which may not show up in the stat sheet necessarily but if you watched the game you'd know how he took over at the end). I'd say he has shown he can hang against the top college teams, and that the numbers aren't "fake".

Well for 1 his numbers are worse than Podz and JDub. There is a reason the best basketball players in the NBA arent decided by per 40 numbers, the best players play the most minutes. It is especially concerning that Graves struggles to defend without fouling vs inferior athletes and talent playing a terrible conference, yet I am supposed to believe he is a stud in hiding and would be as good of a prospect playing the SEC or Big10 where he would be playing against future pros nearly every night instead of the occasional contest vs St Marys or Gonzaga who actually weren't even that good this year.

You look at guys like Amari Allen, Koa Peat, Juke Harris, Steinbach etc.. you don't think they are more dominant if they played in the WCC instead of power 4 conference? I think it is pretty obvious they would probably dominate the WCC. While i have doubts that Graves who struggles to stay on the floor at Santa Clara would be a first round pick if he played at Kentucky or Penn State vs bigger, better players. My guess is he probably averages less than his current 11 ppg and less points per 40 vs better talent and competiting for shots against better talent on his own team.

[CptCrunch]

Allen Graves reminds me of Reed Sheppard. Both are being drafted based on pure BPM energy.

At least for Reed, you see some absurd outsized energies in shooting. I don't know what Allen offers other than box-score hacking and much better size. What skill is there aside from putting up rate stats for the sake of filling the box scores.

[JMAC3]

He reminds me of Malik Mack, Xavien Lee, Adrian Wooley, Maxwell Lewis, David Roddy, Kessler Edwards, Jon Mogbo, Amari Williams, Santi Aldama, Dylan Windler, Hyunjung Lee, Max Abmas, Daron Holmes, Kenneth Lofton Jr, Dillon Jones, Robbie Avila... etc.

As guys that were dominant college players vs weaker competition but have not translatted to success at higher college programs or NBA. Playing weaker competition led them to being drafted higher than they should or higher BPM grades led programs to trust them as big contributors moving forward.

Santi Aldama is really the only guy that is a success story from this list.

[JMAC3]

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Another guy that people thought might be an NBA draft guy last year, returned to San Diego St and didn't improve, now going to powerhouse DePaul.

[ATLTimekeeper]

He reminds me of Malik Mack, Xavien Lee, Adrian Wooley, Maxwell Lewis, David Roddy, Kessler Edwards, Jon Mogbo, Amari Williams, Santi Aldama, Dylan Windler, Hyunjung Lee, Max Abmas, Daron Holmes, Kenneth Lofton Jr, Dillon Jones, Robbie Avila... etc.

As guys that were dominant college players vs weaker competition but have not translatted to success at higher college programs or NBA. Playing weaker competition led them to being drafted higher than they should or higher BPM grades led programs to trust them as big contributors moving forward.

Santi Aldama is really the only guy that is a success story from this list.

I think almost all those guys were upper classmen. I know it's a weak sample, but the only > 12 BPM freshman that didn't make an all-star game was Michael Beasley.

[ReggiesKnicks]

He reminds me of Malik Mack, Xavien Lee, Adrian Wooley, Maxwell Lewis, David Roddy, Kessler Edwards, Jon Mogbo, Amari Williams, Santi Aldama, Dylan Windler, Hyunjung Lee, Max Abmas, Daron Holmes, Kenneth Lofton Jr, Dillon Jones, Robbie Avila... etc.

As guys that were dominant college players vs weaker competition but have not translatted to success at higher college programs or NBA. Playing weaker competition led them to being drafted higher than they should or higher BPM grades led programs to trust them as big contributors moving forward.

Santi Aldama is really the only guy that is a success story from this list.

I think almost all those guys were upper classmen. I know it's a weak sample, but the only > 12 BPM freshman that didn't make an all-star game was Michael Beasley.

This is the mistake people made with Kon Knueppel. They compared him to movement shooters who put up similar numbers as Kon, but Kon was 19 and these players were 21 and 22 years old.

It's like people still don't understand how time, age and development work. Players are outliers if they are playing like a 21 year old at age 19, which means we should be projecting future growth.

[Notanoob]

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Another guy that people thought might be an NBA draft guy last year, returned to San Diego St and didn't improve, now going to powerhouse DePaul.

He kept getting injured is the main problem. Was injured during the offseason and never was really 100%.

[ReggiesKnicks]

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Another guy that people thought might be an NBA draft guy last year, returned to San Diego St and didn't improve, now going to powerhouse DePaul.

He is going from a mid-major to a major conference. DePaul is a middle-of-the-road Big 5 school, but he should be able to prove you (doubters) or others (supporters) wrong one way or another.

The question will be will be if Graves does produce as well in Depaul as he did in Santa Clara if you will give him his flowers or not

[eminence]

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Another guy that people thought might be an NBA draft guy last year, returned to San Diego St and didn't improve, now going to powerhouse DePaul.

He is going from a mid-major to a major conference. DePaul is a middle-of-the-road Big 5 school, but he should be able to prove you (doubters) or others (supporters) wrong one way or another.

The question will be will be if Graves does produce as well in Depaul as he did in Santa Clara if you will give him his flowers or not

That's not Graves, just a teammate of his.

Graves is as of yet uncommitted.

[ReggiesKnicks]

Read on Twitter

?s=20

Another guy that people thought might be an NBA draft guy last year, returned to San Diego St and didn't improve, now going to powerhouse DePaul.

He is going from a mid-major to a major conference. DePaul is a middle-of-the-road Big 5 school, but he should be able to prove you (doubters) or others (supporters) wrong one way or another.

The question will be will be if Graves does produce as well in Depaul as he did in Santa Clara if you will give him his flowers or not

That's not Graves, just a teammate of his.

Graves is as of yet uncommitted.

Oh, X is blocked at work and I can't open the link.

I have no idea what his teammate has any relevance to this then?

[eminence]

He is going from a mid-major to a major conference. DePaul is a middle-of-the-road Big 5 school, but he should be able to prove you (doubters) or others (supporters) wrong one way or another.

The question will be will be if Graves does produce as well in Depaul as he did in Santa Clara if you will give him his flowers or not

That's not Graves, just a teammate of his.

Graves is as of yet uncommitted.

Oh, X is blocked at work and I can't open the link.

I have no idea what his teammate has any relevance to this then?

Idk, but yeah, it's Gwath.

On Graves - he's an interesting guy with a seemingly solid baseline of tools/skills, but more in the mid-late first, not into a non-great team bench guy in the lotto no matter the per minute production.

[EmpireFalls]

Seems like a Grant Williams type.

[JMAC3]

Seems like a Grant Williams type.

I think this is spot on. Defensive specialist who is mainly a spot up shooter, maybe can play some small ball 5 in certain lineup configs.

[BlazersBroncos]

Seems like a Grant Williams type.

I think this is spot on. Defensive specialist who is mainly a spot up shooter, maybe can play some small ball 5 in certain lineup configs.

Ya this is my comp as well. Maybe a bit more connectivity than Grant.

I see Yaxel as PJ Washington and Graves as Grant Williams.