Andrew Wiggins is not a lock at #1?

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Jazzfan12
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Re: Andrew Wiggins is not a lock at #1? 

Post#401 » by Jazzfan12 » Wed Jan 8, 2014 1:11 am

EricAnderson wrote:
Jazzfan12 wrote:vjl110's model has him as the 16th best prospect in the draft:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc ... _web#gid=1

It had Wall 3rd in 2010:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc ... _web#gid=0

I think his model is pretty normal and is similar to the standards that Pelton and Hollinger have used.

Assists and steals matter a ton for draft projection and Wiggins trails Wall massively in both areas.


That looks like something the cavs gm probably goes by

Jordan Adams 1? haha using those stats in college is stupid its such a different game then the pros alot of coachs stiffle talenetd players between microcoaching and zones


Any formula that has Jordan Adams and Kyle Anderson as the top two prospects is obviously a fail


Uhh, it's adjusting for the differences to college to the NBA. Steal rate is easily the most important variable in every draft model because it projects NBA athleticism better than anything else(not because steals are important in changing a game) and Jordan Adams has the best steal rate in the last 15 years.
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Re: Andrew Wiggins is not a lock at #1? 

Post#402 » by EricAnderson » Wed Jan 8, 2014 1:55 am

Jazzfan12 wrote:
EricAnderson wrote:
Jazzfan12 wrote:vjl110's model has him as the 16th best prospect in the draft:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc ... _web#gid=1

It had Wall 3rd in 2010:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc ... _web#gid=0

I think his model is pretty normal and is similar to the standards that Pelton and Hollinger have used.

Assists and steals matter a ton for draft projection and Wiggins trails Wall massively in both areas.


That looks like something the cavs gm probably goes by

Jordan Adams 1? haha using those stats in college is stupid its such a different game then the pros alot of coachs stiffle talenetd players between microcoaching and zones


Any formula that has Jordan Adams and Kyle Anderson as the top two prospects is obviously a fail


Uhh, it's adjusting for the differences to college to the NBA. Steal rate is easily the most important variable in every draft model because it projects NBA athleticism better than anything else(not because steals are important in changing a game) and Jordan Adams has the best steal rate in the last 15 years.


If anyone drafts Jordan adams 1 theyd be fired on the spot
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Andrew Wiggins is not a lock at #1? 

Post#403 » by sikma42 » Wed Jan 8, 2014 2:06 am

CBB_Fan wrote:
HeartBreakKid wrote:
CBB_Fan wrote:
But he still has the highest usage rate on his team. That means that even if it is affecting him he is still the most ball dominant player on his team.

The point isn't that he doesn't have ball handling problems, but that they do not appear to have a major statistical impact on his game. And even if they did, ball handling is something that can be improved. Because of that it is more trivial than a lack of athleticism/size or low basketball IQ.

Usage doesn't actually measure ball dominance though. Wiggins is a finisher, naturally he will have high usage. It doesn't mean he has the ball in his hands a lot (from what I've seen, he doesn't).


You are right that I used ball dominance incorrectly. What I was trying to say is that Wiggins faults haven't prevented him from being a focal point of his team's offense.

One reason I posted the stats for his team was to show just how badly KU's other perimeter players have played so far. As you point out, Wiggins is best as a finisher, and he is relying on a bunch of players that are simply bad with the ball AND bad from behind the arc. That is a bad combination, as it limits his isolation play by packing the paint and allows teams to prevent him from getting the ball in good positions by hassling KU's PGs and SGs.

So I still think that he is in the group with Parker and Embiid at the top of this class. I think we need to take circumstance into account with all stats, and Wiggins is not in a great circumstance. His best traits are getting masked while his worst traits are highlighted by the system he is in and the teammates around him.


Wiggins isn't the focal point of KUs offense. I do agree that Wiggins is in the top tier tho. But, let's not forget that Embiid is dealing with the same sub par passers, Wiggins included.
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Re: Andrew Wiggins is not a lock at #1? 

Post#404 » by CBB_Fan » Wed Jan 8, 2014 2:42 am

sikma42 wrote:
Wiggins isn't the focal point of KUs offense. I do agree that Wiggins is in the top tier tho. But, let's not forget that Embiid is dealing with the same sub par passers, Wiggins included.


He takes the most shots, has the highest usage rating, and scores the most points. That is a focal point to me. Even adjusting for minutes he has the highest points per 40 (narrowly over Embiid).

And while Embiid IS dealing with the same problems, he only needs to get around one defender to score. Wiggins has to get by his man, the next closest perimeter player, and finally the bigs. While each has been held back by the play of KU's perimeter players, Wiggins has been affected more from what I've seen.

We also have to take into account the KU system. It is designed to get good looks at the basket from PG drives and post-to-post passing. Embiid and Ellis get a lot of free looks, while most of the plays for the wings are designed to end in an open 3. The best possible move Wiggins could make in KU's system would be to play more PF, like he did against Duke. He'd get higher quality shots and more good looks at the basket while still getting opportunities to penetrate (Robinson made a killing with just a spin move; Wiggins could do the same).
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Re: Andrew Wiggins is not a lock at #1? 

Post#405 » by EMG518 » Wed Jan 8, 2014 3:03 am

70% chance Jordan Adams is a star by age 26 lol.
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Re: Andrew Wiggins is not a lock at #1? 

Post#406 » by sikma42 » Wed Jan 8, 2014 3:48 am

CBB_Fan wrote:
sikma42 wrote:
Wiggins isn't the focal point of KUs offense. I do agree that Wiggins is in the top tier tho. But, let's not forget that Embiid is dealing with the same sub par passers, Wiggins included.


He takes the most shots, has the highest usage rating, and scores the most points. That is a focal point to me. Even adjusting for minutes he has the highest points per 40 (narrowly over Embiid).

And while Embiid IS dealing with the same problems, he only needs to get around one defender to score. Wiggins has to get by his man, the next closest perimeter player, and finally the bigs. While each has been held back by the play of KU's perimeter players, Wiggins has been affected more from what I've seen.

We also have to take into account the KU system. It is designed to get good looks at the basket from PG drives and post-to-post passing. Embiid and Ellis get a lot of free looks, while most of the plays for the wings are designed to end in an open 3. The best possible move Wiggins could make in KU's system would be to play more PF, like he did against Duke. He'd get higher quality shots and more good looks at the basket while still getting opportunities to penetrate (Robinson made a killing with just a spin move; Wiggins could do the same).


The offense is not run through Wiggins. I don't care how many shots he takes, he isn't the focal points. Getting the ball to the bigs is the direction the team is going. Most of Wiggins shots,excluding transition, are reluctant open 3s and drives to the basket off ball movement or off cuts. These are not things that make up the focal point of an offense.

Oh and it is effecting Embiid more IMO, it's just that he is more skilled than the raw Wiggins. Embiid got doubled on every single touch last game. The games before that he would face zones because perimeter players like Wiggins can't shot.

Playing Wiggins at pf could help but could he guard he guard power forwards? Can he rebound and stay out of foul trouble. It would be a risk and I'm not sure it's worth it. I don't think he is strong enough to do it without fouling and please don't link that AAU vid with Randle.

Lastly, let's not separate Wiggins from he perimeter players. He is one. He is holding himself back by not being able to shoot. By that logic Wiggins is holding Selden back too. They are all void of passing and shooting abilities. The ones with the requisite skills for their positions are Embiid and Ellis(talking starting 5).
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Re: Andrew Wiggins is not a lock at #1? 

Post#407 » by CBB_Fan » Wed Jan 8, 2014 4:17 am

sikma42 wrote:The offense is not run through Wiggins. I don't care how many shots he takes, he isn't the focal points. Getting the ball to the bigs is the direction the team is going. Most of Wiggins shots,excluding transition, are reluctant open 3s and drives to the basket off ball movement or off cuts. These are not things that make up the focal point of an offense.

Oh and it is effecting Embiid more IMO, it's just that he is more skilled than the raw Wiggins. Embiid got doubled on every single touch last game. The games before that he would face zones because perimeter players like Wiggins can't shot.

Playing Wiggins at pf could help but could he guard he guard power forwards? Can he rebound and stay out of foul trouble. It would be a risk and I'm not sure it's worth it. I don't think he is strong enough to do it without fouling and please don't link that AAU vid with Randle.

Lastly, let's not separate Wiggins from he perimeter players. He is one. He is holding himself back by not being able to shoot. By that logic Wiggins is holding Selden back too. They are all void of passing and shooting abilities. The ones with the requisite skills for their positions are Embiid and Ellis(talking starting 5).


So Wiggins takes more shots than any other KU player (and more shots per minute), has a higher usage rating, and ends up scoring more points (both total and per minute) and he isn't the focal point of the offense? Then he's the most effective roleplayer I've ever seen.

As to guarding PFs, KU currently plays Perry Ellis at that spot most of the time. He is the same height as Wiggins with less reach and wingspan and is not significantly stronger (10-20 lbs). I think Wiggins would not be a significant downgrade defensively because of his length. His rebounding would almost certainly go up simply by being close to the basket, and he isn't too far behind Ellis even playing on the perimeter. In limited time this season and in high school Wiggins did very well at PF (against Duke being the prime example this season).

But I'm mostly thinking about the offensive improvements switching to PF would have. When he is on the perimeter he'd had a much better time penetrating simply because he'll have less defenders to close on him (instead of driving to the bigs he'd be going around one of them). Switching him to PF more often would let KU play their bench players more, which are much better shooters than their starters. That would stop some of the problems KU has experienced on the offensive end.

And while Wiggins should certainly be included among the perimeter players, his game was ALWAYS about penetration and he cannot do that if the defense does enough to take that away. When teams in CBB play zone and aggressively help on drives (IE, disrespect an opponent's shooters), no penetration player is going to excel. Whereas a skilled big like Embiid is always just one post move away from a good shot, Wiggins can get by his man and still find himself double-teamed 10' from the goal.

But this goes away from my original point, which is that what we've seen from Wiggins so far in college corresponds only loosely to the game in the NBA. His issues are all fixable and many are just products of the system he plays in and the teammates around him. I just disagreed with the notion that he was no longer an option at #1 because he occasionally dribbles too high or doesn't have a good enough handle, or because he isn't scoring at the rate people expected from the hype. He still has elite athleticism and size for his position and a game that can be developed.
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Re: Andrew Wiggins is not a lock at #1? 

Post#408 » by sikma42 » Wed Jan 8, 2014 3:26 pm

CBB_Fan wrote:
sikma42 wrote:The offense is not run through Wiggins. I don't care how many shots he takes, he isn't the focal points. Getting the ball to the bigs is the direction the team is going. Most of Wiggins shots,excluding transition, are reluctant open 3s and drives to the basket off ball movement or off cuts. These are not things that make up the focal point of an offense.

Oh and it is effecting Embiid more IMO, it's just that he is more skilled than the raw Wiggins. Embiid got doubled on every single touch last game. The games before that he would face zones because perimeter players like Wiggins can't shot.

Playing Wiggins at pf could help but could he guard he guard power forwards? Can he rebound and stay out of foul trouble. It would be a risk and I'm not sure it's worth it. I don't think he is strong enough to do it without fouling and please don't link that AAU vid with Randle.

Lastly, let's not separate Wiggins from he perimeter players. He is one. He is holding himself back by not being able to shoot. By that logic Wiggins is holding Selden back too. They are all void of passing and shooting abilities. The ones with the requisite skills for their positions are Embiid and Ellis(talking starting 5).


So Wiggins takes more shots than any other KU player (and more shots per minute), has a higher usage rating, and ends up scoring more points (both total and per minute) and he isn't the focal point of the offense? Then he's the most effective roleplayer I've ever seen.

As to guarding PFs, KU currently plays Perry Ellis at that spot most of the time. He is the same height as Wiggins with less reach and wingspan and is not significantly stronger (10-20 lbs). I think Wiggins would not be a significant downgrade defensively because of his length. His rebounding would almost certainly go up simply by being close to the basket, and he isn't too far behind Ellis even playing on the perimeter. In limited time this season and in high school Wiggins did very well at PF (against Duke being the prime example this season).

But I'm mostly thinking about the offensive improvements switching to PF would have. When he is on the perimeter he'd had a much better time penetrating simply because he'll have less defenders to close on him (instead of driving to the bigs he'd be going around one of them). Switching him to PF more often would let KU play their bench players more, which are much better shooters than their starters. That would stop some of the problems KU has experienced on the offensive end.

And while Wiggins should certainly be included among the perimeter players, his game was ALWAYS about penetration and he cannot do that if the defense does enough to take that away. When teams in CBB play zone and aggressively help on drives (IE, disrespect an opponent's shooters), no penetration player is going to excel. Whereas a skilled big like Embiid is always just one post move away from a good shot, Wiggins can get by his man and still find himself double-teamed 10' from the goal.

But this goes away from my original point, which is that what we've seen from Wiggins so far in college corresponds only loosely to the game in the NBA. His issues are all fixable and many are just products of the system he plays in and the teammates around him. I just disagreed with the notion that he was no longer an option at #1 because he occasionally dribbles too high or doesn't have a good enough handle, or because he isn't scoring at the rate people expected from the hype. He still has elite athleticism and size for his position and a game that can be developed.


There is a little bit in the Stats 101 I think you should familiarize yourself with...something to do with correlation and causation, I think it would be very helpful in this instance.

Wiggins is never "double teamed" 10 feet from the goal. Teams are not giving him that much attention, he is simply seeing normal zone rotations. If he isn't skilled enough to make open 17-18 foot jumpers then that isn't his teammates fault, it is his for simply not being skilled right now. Guy just hasn't put in the work on his game yet like Kobe did at that age and he isn't as talented as Lebron was at that age. Its not a knock, it is just the reality of the situation. Besides running in a straight line to the basket, he has shown nothing in the half court with any consistency. Even when he has been isolated off the dribble he has been unimpressive and has benefited from questionable block charge calls due to how predictable his dribble moves are. His issues are fixable and he a HUGE talent but the blame for his play right now lies on him, not his teammates and not the coach.

Weird thing is everything I've seen him play in an organized situation with high comp(fiba play), not an all star game....this is how he has looked. that is why im a little more worried than I would have been otherwise...however, the game where he those threes in the closing minutes was encouraging.
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Re: Andrew Wiggins is not a lock at #1? 

Post#409 » by CBB_Fan » Wed Jan 8, 2014 6:44 pm

sikma42 wrote:
There is a little bit in the Stats 101 I think you should familiarize yourself with...something to do with correlation and causation, I think it would be very helpful in this instance.

Wiggins is never "double teamed" 10 feet from the goal. Teams are not giving him that much attention, he is simply seeing normal zone rotations. If he isn't skilled enough to make open 17-18 foot jumpers then that isn't his teammates fault, it is his for simply not being skilled right now. Guy just hasn't put in the work on his game yet like Kobe did at that age and he isn't as talented as Lebron was at that age. Its not a knock, it is just the reality of the situation. Besides running in a straight line to the basket, he has shown nothing in the half court with any consistency. Even when he has been isolated off the dribble he has been unimpressive and has benefited from questionable block charge calls due to how predictable his dribble moves are. His issues are fixable and he a HUGE talent but the blame for his play right now lies on him, not his teammates and not the coach.

Weird thing is everything I've seen him play in an organized situation with high comp(fiba play), not an all star game....this is how he has looked. that is why im a little more worried than I would have been otherwise...however, the game where he those threes in the closing minutes was encouraging.


#1: I don't need to prove causation for this; the entire argument is that Wiggins stats correlate to a focal point player. That is, the argument was focusing only on correlation from the very start.

#2: You ask Wiggins to shoot and make a bunch of guarded 17-18' jump shots... which are by the worst shots for any player to take efficiency-wise. It isn't a matter of skill; I wouldn't want Parker shooting those shots either unless it was an end of shot-clock situation.

#3: Comparisons to Lebron and Kobe are misguided at best. Neither player played in college, and the issues with Wiggins game are mostly arising from the college game itself. All three players would likely have better stats their rookie season than they would as a freshmen simply because of the differences between the NBA and college.

#4. Moreover, Kobe was NOT great as a rookie. If Wiggins had the same averages as rookie year Kobe he'd be called a bust (7.6 PPG on 41.7% FG%). And lets not forget that Kobe career average from 3PT range is just 33%, which is basically identical to what Wiggins has averaged. So obviously Wiggins has "put in the work" to be as good as Kobe as a shooter.


If we are going to compare Wiggins to other slashing players, look at the stats for a bunch of similar players as freshman:

Andrew Wiggins: 15.8 PPG (46/31/77), 5.8 RPG
Paul George: 14.3 PPG (49/45/70), 6.2 RPG
Dwayne Wade: 17.8 PPG (51/35/69), 6.6 RPG
Russell Westbrook: 3.4 PPG (46/41/55), 0.8 RPG

Given the sickness he supposedly had over KU's trip to the Bahamas, it isn't too unlikely that his stats will rise. He's completely comparable to All-Star level players with similar games (read: penetration players), and very few of those players were as effective in college. It makes no sense to use Lebron and Kobe as comparisons simply because they both skipped college.
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Re: Andrew Wiggins is not a lock at #1? 

Post#410 » by sikma42 » Wed Jan 8, 2014 8:15 pm

CBB_Fan wrote:
sikma42 wrote:
There is a little bit in the Stats 101 I think you should familiarize yourself with...something to do with correlation and causation, I think it would be very helpful in this instance.

Wiggins is never "double teamed" 10 feet from the goal. Teams are not giving him that much attention, he is simply seeing normal zone rotations. If he isn't skilled enough to make open 17-18 foot jumpers then that isn't his teammates fault, it is his for simply not being skilled right now. Guy just hasn't put in the work on his game yet like Kobe did at that age and he isn't as talented as Lebron was at that age. Its not a knock, it is just the reality of the situation. Besides running in a straight line to the basket, he has shown nothing in the half court with any consistency. Even when he has been isolated off the dribble he has been unimpressive and has benefited from questionable block charge calls due to how predictable his dribble moves are. His issues are fixable and he a HUGE talent but the blame for his play right now lies on him, not his teammates and not the coach.

Weird thing is everything I've seen him play in an organized situation with high comp(fiba play), not an all star game....this is how he has looked. that is why im a little more worried than I would have been otherwise...however, the game where he those threes in the closing minutes was encouraging.


#1: I don't need to prove causation for this; the entire argument is that Wiggins stats correlate to a focal point player. That is, the argument was focusing only on correlation from the very start.

#2: You ask Wiggins to shoot and make a bunch of guarded 17-18' jump shots... which are by the worst shots for any player to take efficiency-wise. It isn't a matter of skill; I wouldn't want Parker shooting those shots either unless it was an end of shot-clock situation.

#3: Comparisons to Lebron and Kobe are misguided at best. Neither player played in college, and the issues with Wiggins game are mostly arising from the college game itself. All three players would likely have better stats their rookie season than they would as a freshmen simply because of the differences between the NBA and college.

#4. Moreover, Kobe was NOT great as a rookie. If Wiggins had the same averages as rookie year Kobe he'd be called a bust (7.6 PPG on 41.7% FG%). And lets not forget that Kobe career average from 3PT range is just 33%, which is basically identical to what Wiggins has averaged. So obviously Wiggins has "put in the work" to be as good as Kobe as a shooter.


If we are going to compare Wiggins to other slashing players, look at the stats for a bunch of similar players as freshman:

Andrew Wiggins: 15.8 PPG (46/31/77), 5.8 RPG
Paul George: 14.3 PPG (49/45/70), 6.2 RPG
Dwayne Wade: 17.8 PPG (51/35/69), 6.6 RPG
Russell Westbrook: 3.4 PPG (46/41/55), 0.8 RPG

Given the sickness he supposedly had over KU's trip to the Bahamas, it isn't too unlikely that his stats will rise. He's completely comparable to All-Star level players with similar games (read: penetration players), and very few of those players were as effective in college. It makes no sense to use Lebron and Kobe as comparisons simply because they both skipped college.


#1. Ok. So you're not saying is a focal point player(only that there is a correlation), which is not what you said before. :roll:

#2. I'm just saying he is left open from the college 3 point line to do whatever he wants. He can take open 3s, he can dribble to the foul line or he can drive in to take a floater. The truth is no one is accounting for him for large portions of the game.

#3. The issues being the fact that he is a subpar jumpshooter, ball handler and passer may have more effect in college. However, I think you gotta be able to do a bit of something skillwise to thrive in the NBA. Solely blaming the college game for his faults seems a little myopic. BTW...rookie Kobe(who made the all star team and was gaiing comparisons to MJ) was a lot better than Wiggins, the game was different back then but please don't mistake his rookie stats for what he would have produced in college. You seem to base a lot of your critique around stats and correlation and aren't actually putting things into context or relying on the fact that im only "arguing" correlation. If you watched Kobe at 17 in summer league you would see the massive difference in their development at the same age. And with Lebron it is just obvious as well. Kobe and Lebron were used as comparisons because they were otherworldly talents at that age(which is what Wiggins was billed as), it isn't my comparison but the one most heard. If those guys were less skilled and only slashers then THEY WOULDNT HAVE BEEN CONSIDERED THE TALENTS THAT THEY WERE. Maybe Wiggins isn't that level of talent? I'm not ready to say that but the question could reasonably be raised.

And yes...let's compare him to other slashers... he isn't standing out. No one is saying he isn't a great talent worthy of a #1 pick. He is just not what many(not me personally) thought he would be at this point. The fact that many scouts aren't sure he is still the number 1 pick says a lot about what they are seeing as well. Before the season he was thought of a sure-fire hall of famer, now he is a guaranteed top 3 pick.
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Re: Andrew Wiggins is not a lock at #1? 

Post#411 » by CBB_Fan » Wed Jan 8, 2014 10:38 pm

sikma42 wrote:
#1. Ok. So you're not saying is a focal point player(only that there is a correlation), which is not what you said before. :roll:

#2. I'm just saying he is left open from the college 3 point line to do whatever he wants. He can take open 3s, he can dribble to the foul line or he can drive in to take a floater. The truth is no one is accounting for him for large portions of the game.

#3. The issues being the fact that he is a subpar jumpshooter, ball handler and passer may have more effect in college. However, I think you gotta be able to do a bit of something skillwise to thrive in the NBA. Solely blaming the college game for his faults seems a little myopic. BTW...rookie Kobe(who made the all star team and was gaiing comparisons to MJ) was a lot better than Wiggins, the game was different back then but please don't mistake his rookie stats for what he would have produced in college. You seem to base a lot of your critique around stats and correlation and aren't actually putting things into context or relying on the fact that im only "arguing" correlation. If you watched Kobe at 17 in summer league you would see the massive difference in their development at the same age. And with Lebron it is just obvious as well. Kobe and Lebron were used as comparisons because they were otherworldly talents at that age(which is what Wiggins was billed as), it isn't my comparison but the one most heard. If those guys were less skilled and only slashers then THEY WOULDNT HAVE BEEN CONSIDERED THE TALENTS THAT THEY WERE. Maybe Wiggins isn't that level of talent? I'm not ready to say that but the question could reasonably be raised.

And yes...let's compare him to other slashers... he isn't standing out. No one is saying he isn't a great talent worthy of a #1 pick. He is just not what many(not me personally) thought he would be at this point. The fact that many scouts aren't sure he is still the number 1 pick says a lot about what they are seeing as well. Before the season he was thought of a sure-fire hall of famer, now he is a guaranteed top 3 pick.


#1: You completely misunderstand the argument. "Focal point" is just a definition, and is defined entirely through correlating points. Maybe to you that means a lot of iso-ball and 17-18' jump shots; that is your definition with your own correlating points.

I listed my own points I used as a reference (highest PPG, highest points per 40, highest usage rating, most FGA, most FGA per 40). The definition itself is entirely arbitrary and impossible to prove, and can only be shown to correlate to whatever definition we happen to use. If we replace "focal point" with "All-Star" then we could say that a 25 PPG player with 50/40/90 percentages usually correlates to an All-Star, but unlike like All-Star, which has a provable point our argued definition does not have a provable point.

The only argument we can have is over the definitions we use and how well a player's stats correlate to those definitions.

#2: The point I was making is that Wiggins is good at getting past his man, but is often denied a great shot at the rim because defenses go out of their way to defend against his penetration. In the NBA he wouldn't have to worry about bigs camping the lane and will likely have better opportunities to create shots for his teammates if their defenders breaks off to deny his penetration.

#3: Let's talk about Kobe. Here are some actual reports from his rookie year (and before):

Weaknesses- True, he is 17 (close to 18) which is huge but as his dad
said "he's 17 going on 25". Has questionable ballhandling skills (to be
a projected point guard). May not be ready for the rigors of the NBA life
and does not have the body for it right now (although his father, ex-nba
player, will be with him most of the time). Does not have a true
position. Played all 5 in high school and didn't perfect any one of the
five. Is very good at all 5 but not great.
I project him just as everyone else going no lower than 12 or so and I
wouldn't be suprised if he goes much higher. Don't everyone jump on me
at once who read this but I read that the 76ers might be intersted in
keeping him home. He practiced with them in the summer and they loved
him. Even said they would draft him when he came out.


General Info:
Led his team to the state championship, while
averaging 30 ppg. He's currently 17 years old.
Comments:
Has been compared to Grant Hill, but some scouts
feel he doesn't have the ballhandling and shooting
skills to be an effective guard.
Summary:
He'll likely be a top 20 pick.


He was good, yes. But not a Lebron type talent in any way, which is why he was selected 13th overall (though he did pave the way for Lebron and other high school players). A lot of the criticisms you have of Wiggins were also applied to Kobe as a high school player, and he certainly was able to put those criticisms behind him.

Similarly, Lebron was labeled as a great talent very early, but he still had faults. He was a worse jump shooter as a rookie than Wiggins is now (shooting only 29% from the 3PT line), for instance.

Basically, I'm saying that your criticisms of Wiggins aren't dissimilar to criticisms made of Kobe and Lebron. But we never got to see what those players would have done in the college environment, which has been over favorable to big men and 3PT shooters for a long time (even MJ was a much better rookie than college player). I'd say that if Wiggins were in the NBA instead of at KU he'd have better numbers and less criticism.
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Re: Andrew Wiggins is not a lock at #1? 

Post#412 » by sikma42 » Wed Jan 8, 2014 11:20 pm

CBB_Fan wrote:
sikma42 wrote:
#1. Ok. So you're not saying is a focal point player(only that there is a correlation), which is not what you said before. :roll:

#2. I'm just saying he is left open from the college 3 point line to do whatever he wants. He can take open 3s, he can dribble to the foul line or he can drive in to take a floater. The truth is no one is accounting for him for large portions of the game.

#3. The issues being the fact that he is a subpar jumpshooter, ball handler and passer may have more effect in college. However, I think you gotta be able to do a bit of something skillwise to thrive in the NBA. Solely blaming the college game for his faults seems a little myopic. BTW...rookie Kobe(who made the all star team and was gaiing comparisons to MJ) was a lot better than Wiggins, the game was different back then but please don't mistake his rookie stats for what he would have produced in college. You seem to base a lot of your critique around stats and correlation and aren't actually putting things into context or relying on the fact that im only "arguing" correlation. If you watched Kobe at 17 in summer league you would see the massive difference in their development at the same age. And with Lebron it is just obvious as well. Kobe and Lebron were used as comparisons because they were otherworldly talents at that age(which is what Wiggins was billed as), it isn't my comparison but the one most heard. If those guys were less skilled and only slashers then THEY WOULDNT HAVE BEEN CONSIDERED THE TALENTS THAT THEY WERE. Maybe Wiggins isn't that level of talent? I'm not ready to say that but the question could reasonably be raised.

And yes...let's compare him to other slashers... he isn't standing out. No one is saying he isn't a great talent worthy of a #1 pick. He is just not what many(not me personally) thought he would be at this point. The fact that many scouts aren't sure he is still the number 1 pick says a lot about what they are seeing as well. Before the season he was thought of a sure-fire hall of famer, now he is a guaranteed top 3 pick.


#1: You completely misunderstand the argument. "Focal point" is just a definition, and is defined entirely through correlating points. Maybe to you that means a lot of iso-ball and 17-18' jump shots; that is your definition with your own correlating points.

I listed my own points I used as a reference (highest PPG, highest points per 40, highest usage rating, most FGA, most FGA per 40). The definition itself is entirely arbitrary and impossible to prove, and can only be shown to correlate to whatever definition we happen to use. If we replace "focal point" with "All-Star" then we could say that a 25 PPG player with 50/40/90 percentages usually correlates to an All-Star, but unlike like All-Star, which has a provable point our argued definition does not have a provable point.

The only argument we can have is over the definitions we use and how well a player's stats correlate to those definitions.

#2: The point I was making is that Wiggins is good at getting past his man, but is often denied a great shot at the rim because defenses go out of their way to defend against his penetration. In the NBA he wouldn't have to worry about bigs camping the lane and will likely have better opportunities to create shots for his teammates if their defenders breaks off to deny his penetration.

#3: Let's talk about Kobe. Here are some actual reports from his rookie year (and before):

Weaknesses- True, he is 17 (close to 18) which is huge but as his dad
said "he's 17 going on 25". Has questionable ballhandling skills (to be
a projected point guard). May not be ready for the rigors of the NBA life
and does not have the body for it right now (although his father, ex-nba
player, will be with him most of the time). Does not have a true
position. Played all 5 in high school and didn't perfect any one of the
five. Is very good at all 5 but not great.
I project him just as everyone else going no lower than 12 or so and I
wouldn't be suprised if he goes much higher. Don't everyone jump on me
at once who read this but I read that the 76ers might be intersted in
keeping him home. He practiced with them in the summer and they loved
him. Even said they would draft him when he came out.


General Info:
Led his team to the state championship, while
averaging 30 ppg. He's currently 17 years old.
Comments:
Has been compared to Grant Hill, but some scouts
feel he doesn't have the ballhandling and shooting
skills to be an effective guard.
Summary:
He'll likely be a top 20 pick.


He was good, yes. But not a Lebron type talent in any way, which is why he was selected 13th overall (though he did pave the way for Lebron and other high school players). A lot of the criticisms you have of Wiggins were also applied to Kobe as a high school player, and he certainly was able to put those criticisms behind him.

Similarly, Lebron was labeled as a great talent very early, but he still had faults. He was a worse jump shooter as a rookie than Wiggins is now (shooting only 29% from the 3PT line), for instance.

Basically, I'm saying that your criticisms of Wiggins aren't dissimilar to criticisms made of Kobe and Lebron. But we never got to see what those players would have done in the college environment, which has been over favorable to big men and 3PT shooters for a long time (even MJ was a much better rookie than college player). I'd say that if Wiggins were in the NBA instead of at KU he'd have better numbers and less criticism.


I can't keep going into long replies so bear with me.

#1: focal point has a very real meaning.

#2: Wiggins is playing against zone so we barely see him getting his man because traditional zone's do not have man responsibility. It is different than getting by a shifting zone distorted because of talented bigs. Off a live dribble he has been less than impressive. Off triple threat he has proven to be explosive but so far it has mostly been simple go moves.

#3: 1996 and 2014 are two totally different environments. The idea of taking a 17 year skinny two guard high in a draft was crazy back then. But don't mistake an incorrect report for an accurate assessment. Did you watch rookie kobe in summer league and during that year. My poiny when I brought up Kobe was that he was a lot better at 17 skill wise, I don't think many would disagree regardless of whatever report you cite.

Oh and why are you so focused on numbers? trying to compare NBA vs college one to one. Wiggin's numbers have zero to do with anything in my book. I know what to expect from slashers and adjust accordingly.
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Re: Andrew Wiggins is not a lock at #1? 

Post#413 » by Jazzfan12 » Thu Jan 9, 2014 2:17 am

I just can't see it. This guy is incredibly uncoordinated and is out of control every time he tries to dribble and ends up wildly missing after completing his drive because he's so uncoordinated.
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Re: Andrew Wiggins is not a lock at #1? 

Post#414 » by CBB_Fan » Thu Jan 9, 2014 4:38 am

sikma42 wrote:I can't keep going into long replies so bear with me.

#1: focal point has a very real meaning.

#2: Wiggins is playing against zone so we barely see him getting his man because traditional zone's do not have man responsibility. It is different than getting by a shifting zone distorted because of talented bigs. Off a live dribble he has been less than impressive. Off triple threat he has proven to be explosive but so far it has mostly been simple go moves.

#3: 1996 and 2014 are two totally different environments. The idea of taking a 17 year skinny two guard high in a draft was crazy back then. But don't mistake an incorrect report for an accurate assessment. Did you watch rookie kobe in summer league and during that year. My poiny when I brought up Kobe was that he was a lot better at 17 skill wise, I don't think many would disagree regardless of whatever report you cite.

Oh and why are you so focused on numbers? trying to compare NBA vs college one to one. Wiggin's numbers have zero to do with anything in my book. I know what to expect from slashers and adjust accordingly.


I'll make this short and sweet. I use numbers because numbers don't lie. Memories do. People do. But numbers remain the same and give a mostly impartial view of the game (though the people using them are rarely impartial themselves).

Without numbers, arguments tend to devolve into nothing more than shouted opinions. Even bringing up early scouting reports can't override a person's feelings or memories on the matter (and memories are unreliable). That is why I like using numbers to make points more than relying on just subjective analysis or scouting reports (if I have time, video analysis is still my favorite though).
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Re: Andrew Wiggins is not a lock at #1? 

Post#415 » by miltk » Thu Jan 9, 2014 4:54 am

wiggins will be 1 or 2 because however he plays, he will still have that "the next lebron" tag, and teams fall all over themselves when it comes to hype. wiggins only has to not screw up.
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Re: Andrew Wiggins is not a lock at #1? 

Post#416 » by sikma42 » Thu Jan 9, 2014 4:57 am

CBB_Fan wrote:
sikma42 wrote:I can't keep going into long replies so bear with me.

#1: focal point has a very real meaning.

#2: Wiggins is playing against zone so we barely see him getting his man because traditional zone's do not have man responsibility. It is different than getting by a shifting zone distorted because of talented bigs. Off a live dribble he has been less than impressive. Off triple threat he has proven to be explosive but so far it has mostly been simple go moves.

#3: 1996 and 2014 are two totally different environments. The idea of taking a 17 year skinny two guard high in a draft was crazy back then. But don't mistake an incorrect report for an accurate assessment. Did you watch rookie kobe in summer league and during that year. My poiny when I brought up Kobe was that he was a lot better at 17 skill wise, I don't think many would disagree regardless of whatever report you cite.

Oh and why are you so focused on numbers? trying to compare NBA vs college one to one. Wiggin's numbers have zero to do with anything in my book. I know what to expect from slashers and adjust accordingly.


I'll make this short and sweet. I use numbers because numbers don't lie. Memories do. People do. But numbers remain the same and give a mostly impartial view of the game (though the people using them are rarely impartial themselves).

Without numbers, arguments tend to devolve into nothing more than shouted opinions. Even bringing up early scouting reports can't override a person's feelings or memories on the matter (and memories are unreliable). That is why I like using numbers to make points more than relying on just subjective analysis or scouting reports (if I have time, video analysis is still my favorite though).


I'm not going to continue going back and forth. But Simply put, I believe basketball is meaningfully different from a game like baseball in regards to how much stats can explain in a micro level.. Analysis is very useful, but it often relies on simple regression and correlation and lacks any ability to meaningfully predict or explain why. Without that ability you aren't really understanding what is happening on he court. As far as trusting a scouting report, I've recently gone back and watched those games due to the comparisons to Wiggins. If you feel the scouting reports were accurate then more power to you. Personally, anyone that thought that Kobe was only worth a top 20 pick was most likely substantially off. Stats have there place but without basketball specific expertise they don't say much.
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Re: Andrew Wiggins is not a lock at #1? 

Post#417 » by Thugleavy34 » Thu Jan 9, 2014 5:07 am

Numbers don't lie, memories do?

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Re: Andrew Wiggins is not a lock at #1? 

Post#418 » by Dr Positivity » Thu Jan 9, 2014 5:52 am

I think everyone can see Embiid is the favorite to go 1st everyone if ESPN and DX are delaying the reaction
It's going to be a glorious day... I feel my luck could change
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Re: Andrew Wiggins is not a lock at #1? 

Post#419 » by Ayt » Thu Jan 9, 2014 10:11 am

CBB_Fan wrote:#3: Comparisons to Lebron and Kobe are misguided at best. Neither player played in college, and the issues with Wiggins game are mostly arising from the college game itself. All three players would likely have better stats their rookie season than they would as a freshmen simply because of the differences between the NBA and college.


You seriously think that Wiggins would have better stats in the NBA right now or that LeBron and Kobe would have had worse stats in college as freshman than they did as rookies in the NBA?
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Re: Andrew Wiggins is not a lock at #1? 

Post#420 » by Jazzfan12 » Thu Jan 9, 2014 2:30 pm

CBB_fan, are you really using a "numbers don't lie" argument to defend a guy whose numbers kind of suck?

It seems weird to explain away Wiggins' lack of production while simultaneously arguing that he's the focal point solely due to his numbers, pretty contradictory approaches there.

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