Reed Sheppard and Rob Dillingham - 2024 NBA Draft

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Re: Reed Sheppard and Rob Dillingham - 2024 NBA Draft 

Post#401 » by Hal14 » Wed Mar 6, 2024 9:51 pm

HadAnEffectHere wrote:I'm sorry, but Sheppard is 6'1", 187, he's going to get switch hunted and shoved to the ground by Tatum etc every single play.

It doesn't matter how good his feel is, he's going to be treated like a bowling pin as long as the rules allow forwards to shove guards.

None of his help defense will matter at all because he'll be on ball always and getting shoved to the ground constantly.

:lol:

This guy thinks we're talking about football or Rugby lmao.

Wrong sport, dude.
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Re: Reed Sheppard and Rob Dillingham - 2024 NBA Draft 

Post#402 » by HadAnEffectHere » Wed Mar 6, 2024 10:07 pm

Hal14 wrote:
HadAnEffectHere wrote:I'm sorry, but Sheppard is 6'1", 187, he's going to get switch hunted and shoved to the ground by Tatum etc every single play.

It doesn't matter how good his feel is, he's going to be treated like a bowling pin as long as the rules allow forwards to shove guards.

None of his help defense will matter at all because he'll be on ball always and getting shoved to the ground constantly.

:lol:

This guy thinks we're talking about football or Rugby lmao.

Wrong sport, dude.


You can just shove people now, it's weird, but offensive players are given huge leeway and it's really bad for small guards.
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Re: Reed Sheppard and Rob Dillingham - 2024 NBA Draft 

Post#403 » by JMAC3 » Wed Mar 6, 2024 11:00 pm

Hal14 wrote:3 things:

1) I make a long post where I make like 20 different points. All you've got to reply back is nitpicking some minor point about blocks....WEAK. You've got nothing to say about the other 19 points I made? Well, I guess Sheppard *is* a top 10 pick then 8-)

2) WEAK to put blocks per game. Who still uses per game averages? Let's get with the times here and use blocks %

2) You seem to fixate too much on size, athleticism and length. Here's the career blocks % for each guy during college:

Derrick White: 4.9
Gary Payton II: 3.2
Reed Sheppard: 2.8
Marcus Smart: 2.1
Lonzo Ball: 2.1
Dyson Daniels: 2.0
Caruso: 1.8
Anthony Black: 1.8
Dillon Brooks: 1.7
Jrue Holiday: 1.7
Dennis Smith Jr: 1.2
Jalen Suggs: 1.1
Pat Beverley: 0.9
Dejounte Murray: 0.8
Lu Dort: 0.8
Kyle Lowry: 0.6
Chris Paul: 0.4

If these other guys have better physical tools, than why couldn't they block more shots than Sheppard?

Again, no other player since 2008 has hit the marks Sheppard has defensively (steals %, blocks %, DBPM, d-rebound %). If those other guards have better physical tools, then they should have blown Sheppard out of the water in these categories, no? Especially considering a lot of the guys I listed above played 3-4 yrs of college so that would help them have a higher career blocks % than a guy who's only a freshman..

Sure, physical tools matter. But a lot of defense is about instincts, timing. Having quick hands. Having basketball IQ. Being really aggressive, without being so aggressive that you foul too much. Having sound technique when defending someone, not biting on fakes, etc. Sheppard has all that stuff.


Yes, I don't feel the need to discuss every line of you text because I have seen this graphic that has all these filters trying to showcase Reed as some 1 of 1 talent 25 times in the thread. I would bet probably all the money in my bank acct that if Reed played college basketball again next year his steal and block% would be lower, I get it he is having a great year for %, but I think a lot of the guys you listed didn't get the benefit of a small sample size boost that Reed is getting, most of them played several yrs of college bball.

Yes, I list blocks per game, because in the grand scheme of it he isn't going to be swatting a lot of shots at the next level. If he blocks 50 shots next year that would be elite for a guard. Do we really care to get all hot and bothered for something that is that irrelevant? Ultimately, I think it has very little to do with if he is successful in the NBA but yet anyone who questions whether he is a good talent gets blk% thrown back like it some great indicator of how awesome of a can't miss talent he is.
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Re: Reed Sheppard and Rob Dillingham - 2024 NBA Draft 

Post#404 » by JMAC3 » Wed Mar 6, 2024 11:04 pm

Comparing Reed Sheppard to career 7 ppg John Paxson who played with the GOAT of his time as a reason why Reed should be a top 8 pick is wild.
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Re: Reed Sheppard and Rob Dillingham - 2024 NBA Draft 

Post#405 » by Hal14 » Wed Mar 6, 2024 11:48 pm

JMAC3 wrote:Comparing Reed Sheppard to career 7 ppg John Paxson who played with the GOAT of his time as a reason why Reed should be a top 8 pick is wild.

In this draft? No, that's not wild at all.

This draft probably doesn't have anybody who is gonna make an all-star team. Except for *maybe* 1 or 2 guys, this draft is all role players.

John Paxson played 11 seasons, won 3 titles, was the starting PG on 3 championship teams. Multiple seasons as a double digit scorer (despite playing with 2 guys who took all the shots in an era with less possessions per game), won a MIP award. And hit one of the most clutch shots in NBA history.

In *this* draft, if you get a guy like that around pick 7 or 8, that's a very good pick.

And the point I was making when I brought up Paxson, wasn't even about how high in the draft Sheppard should go (so you're taking what I said out of context). I only mentioned him as an example (along with like 15 other examples I provided) of guys who were solid starting PGs in this league, despite being guys who weren't great at pressuring the rim (and many of the guys I mentioned also weren't great at creating their own shot..at least not when they were freshman in college).
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Re: Reed Sheppard and Rob Dillingham - 2024 NBA Draft 

Post#406 » by EvanZ » Thu Mar 7, 2024 1:44 am

HadAnEffectHere wrote:
EvanZ wrote:I can only imagine the terror Reed Sheppard would inflict if he was the starting point guard for Santa Clara.


We have data on Reed Sheppard creating his own shot in high school and it did not go well at all, actually.

"Sheppard is a throwback style guard who is skilled and exceptionally sound fundamentally. He is a solid athlete, but not dynamic or totally explosive. His attack is based on his ability to shoot the ball, make sound decisions, and process the game. He has a high and compact release that allows him to get his shot off and rates as one of the best free-throw shooters on any of the three major circuits at over 90%. He plays strong with the ball, is tight and efficient with it as a handler, has good use of both hands, and snaps his passes. He’s supremely confident in his approach and is capable of playing on and off the ball. Because he’s a tad upright off the dribble and lacks that extra gear of burst, he isn’t always able to flatten defensive pressure and ends up settling for tough shots. He converted only 29% of his three-point attempts as a result and while he’s a better shooter than that number indicates, his three-point range is going to be an even bigger emphasis at the next level and so being a driller is crucial. Defensively, he’s going to rely more on his intellect, physicality, and toughness than he is sheer footspeed."

https://247sports.com/player/reed-sheppard-46102800/


This is not data it’s a scouting report.
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Re: Reed Sheppard and Rob Dillingham - 2024 NBA Draft 

Post#407 » by clyde21 » Thu Mar 7, 2024 2:31 am

JMAC3 wrote:Comparing Reed Sheppard to career 7 ppg John Paxson who played with the GOAT of his time as a reason why Reed should be a top 8 pick is wild.


top 8 is such a weird arbitrary mark...so top 8 is wild but if he goes 9 or 10 its cool? makes no sense.

anyway, whats your top 8?
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Re: Reed Sheppard and Rob Dillingham - 2024 NBA Draft 

Post#408 » by Colbinii » Thu Mar 7, 2024 4:12 am

Hal14 wrote:
JMAC3 wrote:Comparing Reed Sheppard to career 7 ppg John Paxson who played with the GOAT of his time as a reason why Reed should be a top 8 pick is wild.

In this draft? No, that's not wild at all.


B-I-N-G-O.

My philosophy in a Draft isn't to rank players 1-60 based on their star potential and then have my draft board go in that order.

How do we distinguish between a Boom-Bust prospect or a prospect with a high floor but relatively low-ceiling? That's sort of the point it seems like JMAC3 is missing in the discussion about Reed. Reed does so many things that translate exceptionally well to the NBA that his median-outcome is actually quite high, but his high-end outcome may either not be clearly distinguishable or realistic for him to achieve.

Does this make him a worse prospect than Cody Williams? Not sure. I believe Cody Williams certainly has a clearer path to his high-end outcome than Sheppard, and on top of that, Cody Williams likely achieves his high-end ceiling more likely than Sheppard. But, I see many more situations where Cody Williams is out of the league in 5-6 years or a minimum level player while Sheppard is signing an extension with the team who drafted him.
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Re: Reed Sheppard and Rob Dillingham - 2024 NBA Draft 

Post#409 » by The Moose » Thu Mar 7, 2024 6:31 am

The talent level is fairly flat in this draft imo, arguably from 1 onwards, towards as far down as maybe 10. The depth is decent, but the top is flat.

With that being said, I think it's fairly easy to try to argue, for example, 'player xyz shouldn't be #4 on boards he should be around #10'.
In a more top heavy draft, I think a lot of these guys wouldn't go as high, but every draft is different and exists within its own context.
But in that sense it's easy to nitpick some of these guys who are currently getting projected higher and say they aren't to the expected standard of the typical 'x' pick. At the end of the day, somebody has to be taken with these high picks in this draft.

But when someone says 'player x isn't a top 8 or top 9' or whatever pick, inherently it means you have a list of guys who are better prospects. By excluding some, you're inherently including others.

So for anyone that doesn't have Reed as a top 10 guy, I'm curious who your top 10 guys are? I'd like to see some users in this thread start to actually make cases for players they think are deserving of being top 10 picks in this draft rather than guys they think aren't.

If you look at the 1st page of the draft forum, the only actually active threads for individual prospects in this class are this one (Sheppard and Dillingham), Edey, Castle and Furphy. 4 of these 5 are in my top 10, but evidently there must be plenty of posters here who have a lot of guys in their top 10 that they don't feel deserve to have an active thread about, and would rather discuss prospects they don't like, which confuses me. There is nothing wrong with disagreeing or being lower on certain prospects, but if you don't really spend any time advocating for prospects you actually think are good, I think the balance is off.
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Re: Reed Sheppard and Rob Dillingham - 2024 NBA Draft 

Post#410 » by The-Power » Thu Mar 7, 2024 8:04 am

I am admittedly very high on Sheppard but even I understand some of the concerns and have my own frustrations with him. So let's get this right out of the way. The thing is, I don't see any other prospect where that's not the case.

To those who have Sheppard outside the lottery or close to it, I'm really curious to see your big board. Could you name the players and tell me what you believe their realistic high-end, low-end and median outcome looks like? Who is Sheppard up against?

I have Sheppard in the top 5 not because I believe he'll be a star (a possible but not likely outcome) but because I don't see 5 or more players that I'd draft ahead of him. It's also why I have Dillingham in my top 10. It's not because there aren't clear flaws one can point to, or because they are guaranteed to be long-term starters in the NBA. It's because I compare them to the alternatives and don't see a ton of prospects that are better than them.
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Re: Reed Sheppard and Rob Dillingham - 2024 NBA Draft 

Post#411 » by HadAnEffectHere » Thu Mar 7, 2024 1:27 pm

EvanZ wrote:
HadAnEffectHere wrote:
EvanZ wrote:I can only imagine the terror Reed Sheppard would inflict if he was the starting point guard for Santa Clara.


We have data on Reed Sheppard creating his own shot in high school and it did not go well at all, actually.

"Sheppard is a throwback style guard who is skilled and exceptionally sound fundamentally. He is a solid athlete, but not dynamic or totally explosive. His attack is based on his ability to shoot the ball, make sound decisions, and process the game. He has a high and compact release that allows him to get his shot off and rates as one of the best free-throw shooters on any of the three major circuits at over 90%. He plays strong with the ball, is tight and efficient with it as a handler, has good use of both hands, and snaps his passes. He’s supremely confident in his approach and is capable of playing on and off the ball. Because he’s a tad upright off the dribble and lacks that extra gear of burst, he isn’t always able to flatten defensive pressure and ends up settling for tough shots. He converted only 29% of his three-point attempts as a result and while he’s a better shooter than that number indicates, his three-point range is going to be an even bigger emphasis at the next level and so being a driller is crucial. Defensively, he’s going to rely more on his intellect, physicality, and toughness than he is sheer footspeed."

https://247sports.com/player/reed-sheppard-46102800/


This is not data it’s a scouting report.


He converted only 29% of his three-point attempts as a result
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Re: Reed Sheppard and Rob Dillingham - 2024 NBA Draft 

Post#412 » by Hal14 » Thu Mar 7, 2024 2:23 pm

The Moose wrote:So for anyone that doesn't have Reed as a top 10 guy, I'm curious who your top 10 guys are? I'd like to see some users in this thread start to actually make cases for players they think are deserving of being top 10 picks in this draft rather than guys they think aren't.

If you look at the 1st page of the draft forum, the only actually active threads for individual prospects in this class are this one (Sheppard and Dillingham), Edey, Castle and Furphy. 4 of these 5 are in my top 10, but evidently there must be plenty of posters here who have a lot of guys in their top 10 that they don't feel deserve to have an active thread about, and would rather discuss prospects they don't like, which confuses me. There is nothing wrong with disagreeing or being lower on certain prospects, but if you don't really spend any time advocating for prospects you actually think are good, I think the balance is off.

Exactly!

There's 3 posters in particular here who are 3 of the most active people in the draft forum but when you combine their posts, 90% of them are tearing down the players they are talking about. And you very rarely see them talk positively about other players.

Very odd stuff.
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Re: Reed Sheppard and Rob Dillingham - 2024 NBA Draft 

Post#413 » by Hal14 » Thu Mar 7, 2024 2:29 pm

HadAnEffectHere wrote:
EvanZ wrote:
HadAnEffectHere wrote:
We have data on Reed Sheppard creating his own shot in high school and it did not go well at all, actually.

"Sheppard is a throwback style guard who is skilled and exceptionally sound fundamentally. He is a solid athlete, but not dynamic or totally explosive. His attack is based on his ability to shoot the ball, make sound decisions, and process the game. He has a high and compact release that allows him to get his shot off and rates as one of the best free-throw shooters on any of the three major circuits at over 90%. He plays strong with the ball, is tight and efficient with it as a handler, has good use of both hands, and snaps his passes. He’s supremely confident in his approach and is capable of playing on and off the ball. Because he’s a tad upright off the dribble and lacks that extra gear of burst, he isn’t always able to flatten defensive pressure and ends up settling for tough shots. He converted only 29% of his three-point attempts as a result and while he’s a better shooter than that number indicates, his three-point range is going to be an even bigger emphasis at the next level and so being a driller is crucial. Defensively, he’s going to rely more on his intellect, physicality, and toughness than he is sheer footspeed."

https://247sports.com/player/reed-sheppard-46102800/


This is not data it’s a scouting report.


He converted only 29% of his three-point attempts as a result

A "scouting report" that's just about 2 years old - before he made some changes to his shot:

Read on Twitter


I would add that the jump in 3 FG% for Sheppard (31% in HS to 51% in college) is also attributed to just him putting in the work, getting better. Also, much better spacing on Kentucky than the small, crowded HS courts. And he was THE guy on his teams in HS so a much higher % of the 3PA in HS were self created or at least off the dribble, whereas on Kentucky a higher % of his looks are assisted and/or off the catch, with less defensive pressure on him.

In the NBA, he will likely be (at best) a 3rd or 4th option, rather than THE guy on his team..and will have good spacing. And you know he's gonna keep putting the work in, so is more likely to shoot like he's shooting now in college (51%) than the 31% in HS..

Also, that "scouting report" says he shot 90% from the FT line. Doing that at the high school level definitely tells me he's a guy with the potential to be an elite shooter.
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Re: Reed Sheppard and Rob Dillingham - 2024 NBA Draft 

Post#414 » by HadAnEffectHere » Thu Mar 7, 2024 2:38 pm

So was his sudden 20 point leap in shooting percentage due to minor mechanical changes or going from a high usage player to a low usage player, tough to say.

I'm sure Sheppard is a great spotup shooter, the issue is if he can create at all which I'm pretty doubtful of.
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Re: Reed Sheppard and Rob Dillingham - 2024 NBA Draft 

Post#415 » by JMAC3 » Thu Mar 7, 2024 3:00 pm

HadAnEffectHere wrote:So was his sudden 20 point leap in shooting percentage due to minor mechanical changes or going from a high usage player to a low usage player, tough to say.

I'm sure Sheppard is a great spotup shooter, the issue is if he can create at all which I'm pretty doubtful of.


Last night he was really quiet. Pretty sure he was scoreless in first half in what was a tight game until Dillingham went bizerk mode.

Reed didn't attempt a shot inside of 15 feet, the 2 3s he made he was open by more than 5 feet. He hit his one shot inside the 3pt line which was a pull up from free throw line off a ball screen.
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Re: Reed Sheppard and Rob Dillingham - 2024 NBA Draft 

Post#416 » by The-Power » Thu Mar 7, 2024 3:04 pm

JMAC3 wrote:Last night he was really quiet. Pretty sure he was scoreless in first half in what was a tight game until Dillingham went bizerk mode.

Reed didn't attempt a shot inside of 15 feet, the 2 3s he made he was open by more than 5 feet. He hit his one shot inside the 3pt line which was a pull up from free throw line off a ball screen.

So? His fingerprints were still all over the offense. It was clearly a good game from him.
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Re: Reed Sheppard and Rob Dillingham - 2024 NBA Draft 

Post#417 » by JMAC3 » Thu Mar 7, 2024 3:20 pm

clyde21 wrote:
JMAC3 wrote:Comparing Reed Sheppard to career 7 ppg John Paxson who played with the GOAT of his time as a reason why Reed should be a top 8 pick is wild.


top 8 is such a weird arbitrary mark...so top 8 is wild but if he goes 9 or 10 its cool? makes no sense.

anyway, whats your top 8?


Top 20 right now, tier order is still in process so disregard order of players especially in Tier 1.

Tier 1 - Starters with upside. 1-5
Risacher, Topic, Sarr, Holland, Cody Williams

Tier 2- Solid Starters 6-9
Buzelis, Castle, Walter, Collier

Tier 3 - star potential but more concerning red flags. 10-11
Dillingham, Saluan

Tier 4 Low End Starters, High Level Reserve Role Players 12-16
Clingan, Tyler Smith Sheppard, Filipowski, Knecht

Next 4 out on my watch list
Furphy, McClain, Missi, Carrington

So yeah I don't hate Sheppard, I think outside the top 10 I would consider him depending on fit, team needs but didn't have any issues putting 11 guys for sure ahead of him.
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Re: Reed Sheppard and Rob Dillingham - 2024 NBA Draft 

Post#418 » by HadAnEffectHere » Thu Mar 7, 2024 4:13 pm

The-Power wrote:
JMAC3 wrote:Last night he was really quiet. Pretty sure he was scoreless in first half in what was a tight game until Dillingham went bizerk mode.

Reed didn't attempt a shot inside of 15 feet, the 2 3s he made he was open by more than 5 feet. He hit his one shot inside the 3pt line which was a pull up from free throw line off a ball screen.

So? His fingerprints were still all over the offense. It was clearly a good game from him.


The issue is just "Lonzo Ball but four inches shorter" is not a valuable player in the current NBA meta. He's going to be targeted on switches every time and go from a major defensive plus in college to a huge minus in the NBA because he won't be able to operate off ball. Connective passing and excellent spot-up shooting doesn't really make up for that.
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Re: Reed Sheppard and Rob Dillingham - 2024 NBA Draft 

Post#419 » by JMAC3 » Thu Mar 7, 2024 4:17 pm

The-Power wrote:
JMAC3 wrote:Last night he was really quiet. Pretty sure he was scoreless in first half in what was a tight game until Dillingham went bizerk mode.

Reed didn't attempt a shot inside of 15 feet, the 2 3s he made he was open by more than 5 feet. He hit his one shot inside the 3pt line which was a pull up from free throw line off a ball screen.

So? His fingerprints were still all over the offense. It was clearly a good game from him.


We have different definitions of a good game, Dillingham clearly had a good game.
Watching Sheppard game he could have been a 5th year senior zero star recruit that has no NBA future for all I know.

And Im not just judging him off this game, I just think too often he looks very pedestrian.
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Re: Reed Sheppard and Rob Dillingham - 2024 NBA Draft 

Post#420 » by EvanZ » Thu Mar 7, 2024 5:09 pm

HadAnEffectHere wrote:
EvanZ wrote:
HadAnEffectHere wrote:
We have data on Reed Sheppard creating his own shot in high school and it did not go well at all, actually.

"Sheppard is a throwback style guard who is skilled and exceptionally sound fundamentally. He is a solid athlete, but not dynamic or totally explosive. His attack is based on his ability to shoot the ball, make sound decisions, and process the game. He has a high and compact release that allows him to get his shot off and rates as one of the best free-throw shooters on any of the three major circuits at over 90%. He plays strong with the ball, is tight and efficient with it as a handler, has good use of both hands, and snaps his passes. He’s supremely confident in his approach and is capable of playing on and off the ball. Because he’s a tad upright off the dribble and lacks that extra gear of burst, he isn’t always able to flatten defensive pressure and ends up settling for tough shots. He converted only 29% of his three-point attempts as a result and while he’s a better shooter than that number indicates, his three-point range is going to be an even bigger emphasis at the next level and so being a driller is crucial. Defensively, he’s going to rely more on his intellect, physicality, and toughness than he is sheer footspeed."

https://247sports.com/player/reed-sheppard-46102800/


This is not data it’s a scouting report.


He converted only 29% of his three-point attempts as a result


LMAO this is so bad. First of all that's literally one stat. Second, we don't konw the sample size. Third, players improve shooting rapidly around age 18-19 to where 29% as an 18-year old isn't all that bad even. Fourth, high school stats are notoriously shady. Fifth, the very same scouting report says he shot over 90% from the line.

Come on bro. Poor attempt.

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