Andrew Wiggins is not a lock at #1?

[EricAnderson]

People are working on both ends of extremes..Anyone who thinks Wiggins is a Lebron/Kobe level talent is out of their minds..More/George/Tmac ceiling

At the same time killing a player because his numbers arent dominant in college is also a bad measure..The college game alot of times is micromanaged and throw in the zone and its not really built for guys like Wiggins to go off..

The new age stat geeks who somehow think college stats correlate to the pros have crunched the numbers and determined Jordan Adams and Kyle Anderson are the best two prsopects in the draft..

So that tells you going deep into college numbers to compare players and predict their nba future clearly doesnt work..

[Jazzfan12]

People are working on both ends of extremes..Anyone who thinks Wiggins is a Lebron/Kobe level talent is out of their minds..More/George/Tmac ceiling

At the same time killing a player because his numbers arent dominant in college is also a bad measure..The college game alot of times is micromanaged and throw in the zone and its not really built for guys like Wiggins to go off..

The new age stat geeks who somehow think college stats correlate to the pros have crunched the numbers and determined Jordan Adams and Kyle Anderson are the best two prsopects in the draft..

So that tells you going deep into college numbers to compare players and predict their nba future clearly doesnt work..

Wesley Johnson and Ekpe Udoh were picked 4th and 6th overall and Austin Rivers literally got picked in the top ten despite all of those guys having bad to terrible projections, clearly traditional scouting doesn't work.

[sikma42]

People are working on both ends of extremes..Anyone who thinks Wiggins is a Lebron/Kobe level talent is out of their minds..More/George/Tmac ceiling

At the same time killing a player because his numbers arent dominant in college is also a bad measure..The college game alot of times is micromanaged and throw in the zone and its not really built for guys like Wiggins to go off..

The new age stat geeks who somehow think college stats correlate to the pros have crunched the numbers and determined Jordan Adams and Kyle Anderson are the best two prsopects in the draft..

So that tells you going deep into college numbers to compare players and predict their nba future clearly doesnt work..

Wesley Johnson and Ekpe Udoh were picked 4th and 6th overall and Austin Rivers literally got picked in the top ten despite all of those guys having bad to terrible projections, clearly traditional scouting doesn't work.

many scouts had Rivers projecting badly as well. Bad scouting doesn't work the same way bad statistical analysis doesn't work. The best is mix obviously a mix of both.

[CBB_Fan]

CBB_fan, are you really using a "numbers don't lie" argument to defend a guy whose numbers kind of suck?

It seems weird to explain away Wiggins' lack of production while simultaneously arguing that he's the focal point solely due to his numbers, pretty contradictory approaches there.

I'm not making any argument solely based off numbers, I'm using stats in combination with with other forms of analysis to get a more complete picture. The focal point argument used a lot of stats because I thought they were the best proof available of what I would consider a focal point player, and in that case Wiggins is comparable to other players on his team (ie, you could use the stats knowing that they should be somewhat comparable).

But when talking about his relative lack of production (relative because 15-16 PPG as a freshmen with considerable defensive upside is actually great), it is important to realize that stats are not perfectly comparable (though this argument fails somewhat when comparing him to his teammate Embiid). At this point a better approach is to look at skillsets and how similar players played at both the collegiate and professional levels.

In short, I'm not saying stats are the only acceptable argument or even universally the best argument. I like to use them to accent other points or to support analysis, and in some cases I feel they are they are the only way to get a definite answer to a question. They have to be applied based on the situation.

You seriously think that Wiggins would have better stats in the NBA right now or that LeBron and Kobe would have had worse stats in college as freshman than they did as rookies in the NBA?

Yes, I seriously do. While we don't have a perfect example (guy that plays a little college and then transfers to NBA before finishing freshmen year), we have many examples of players with similar skillsets were better as rookies than they were at any point in their college career.

The college game and the pro game have enough differences to cause this. College games emphasize team defense over individual defense, jump shooting over penetration, &c. Vice versa for the NBA. You don't need to look to an obscure player to find an example, as we have the GOAT. 19.6 PPG on 55% his third year in college, 28.2 PPG on 52% as a rookie. Certain skillsets favor the college game (Adam Morrison), and certain skillsets favor the NBA (Russell Westbrook).

There are numerous examples to show this. As neither Lebron or Kobe were good jump shooters (from the 3PT range) until after their rookie seasons I'd say they would have been defended much in the same way that
Wiggins is now.

[Jazzfan12]

Wiggins can't make layups or midrange jumpers either. Kobe, LeBron, and Jordan had successes in some of those areas right away.

[EricAnderson]

People are working on both ends of extremes..Anyone who thinks Wiggins is a Lebron/Kobe level talent is out of their minds..More/George/Tmac ceiling

At the same time killing a player because his numbers arent dominant in college is also a bad measure..The college game alot of times is micromanaged and throw in the zone and its not really built for guys like Wiggins to go off..

The new age stat geeks who somehow think college stats correlate to the pros have crunched the numbers and determined Jordan Adams and Kyle Anderson are the best two prsopects in the draft..

So that tells you going deep into college numbers to compare players and predict their nba future clearly doesnt work..

Wesley Johnson and Ekpe Udoh were picked 4th and 6th overall and Austin Rivers literally got picked in the top ten despite all of those guys having bad to terrible projections, clearly traditional scouting doesn't work.

Because of draft busts the scouting doesnt work? lol there is no way to guarantee a guy is gonna be a bust or not im sorry these arent robots these are human beings some of whom get better some of whom dont..Some of them want to be great some of them dont care about being great..there is no mathmetical formula to prevent busts from ever happening thats just naive thinking..

[Ayt]

Yes, I seriously do. While we don't have a perfect example (guy that plays a little college and then transfers to NBA before finishing freshmen year), we have many examples of players with similar skillsets were better as rookies than they were at any point in their college career.

The college game and the pro game have enough differences to cause this. College games emphasize team defense over individual defense, jump shooting over penetration, &c. Vice versa for the NBA. You don't need to look to an obscure player to find an example, as we have the GOAT. 19.6 PPG on 55% his third year in college, 28.2 PPG on 52% as a rookie. Certain skillsets favor the college game (Adam Morrison), and certain skillsets favor the NBA (Russell Westbrook).

There are numerous examples to show this. As neither Lebron or Kobe were good jump shooters (from the 3PT range) until after their rookie seasons I'd say they would have been defended much in the same way that Wiggins is now.

Comparing how players shot from the NBA three point line to a player shooting from NCAA line doesn't make any sense. Kobe shot 38% from three as a rook, FWIW.

Also, it isn't just three point jumpers Wiggins isn't making, it is jumpers overall.

Beyond that, LeBron and Kobe were vastly superior ball handlers. They both were much more capable of slithering into the paint than Wiggins, who is just a straight line slasher.

[skones]

Yes, I seriously do. While we don't have a perfect example (guy that plays a little college and then transfers to NBA before finishing freshmen year), we have many examples of players with similar skillsets were better as rookies than they were at any point in their college career.

The college game and the pro game have enough differences to cause this. College games emphasize team defense over individual defense, jump shooting over penetration, &c. Vice versa for the NBA. You don't need to look to an obscure player to find an example, as we have the GOAT. 19.6 PPG on 55% his third year in college, 28.2 PPG on 52% as a rookie. Certain skillsets favor the college game (Adam Morrison), and certain skillsets favor the NBA (Russell Westbrook).

There are numerous examples to show this. As neither Lebron or Kobe were good jump shooters (from the 3PT range) until after their rookie seasons I'd say they would have been defended much in the same way that Wiggins is now.

Comparing how players shot from the NBA three point line to a player shooting from NCAA line doesn't make any sense. Kobe shot 38% from three as a rook, FWIW.

Also, it isn't just three point jumpers Wiggins isn't making, it is jumpers overall.

Beyond that, LeBron and Kobe were vastly superior ball handlers. They both were much more capable of slithering into the paint than Wiggins, who is just a straight line slasher.

I got ya. Wiggins shooting 30.4% on all jumpers this season. 31/102

[TheSuzerain]

The jumper can be fixed over time, especially given how well he can get it off.

The missed layups are more concerning.

[rockmanslim]

The jumper can be fixed over time, especially given how well he can get it off.

The missed layups are more concerning.

The ball handling and poor shot creation off the dribble are most concerning of all.

[rockmanslim]

Wiggins in the Oklahoma game, in case you missed it:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wyS7Qnwxnfk[/youtube]

[noobcake]

Wiggins in the Oklahoma game, in case you missed it:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wyS7Qnwxnfk[/youtube]

Damn, what a dedicated guy. Every play with Wiggins in it around it is in that video. Wasn't even sure if Wiggins was in that game based on his lack of impact.

[rockmanslim]

Wiggins in the Oklahoma game, in case you missed it:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wyS7Qnwxnfk[/youtube]

Damn, what a dedicated guy. Every play with Wiggins in it around it is in that video. Wasn't even sure if Wiggins was in that game based on his lack of impact.

you're welcome

[Novocaine]

It's not really the "college game" as a whole, but I agree people are disregarding the impact of Self's system on what Wiggins can do and show.

It's completely different to play in a 3out2in high-low motion offense or in something like, say, Calipari's dribble drive motion. In the first, dribble penetration for the guards is an afterthought, the ability to drive the ball from the perimeter is inhibited as the post is always occupied and players are supposed to pass and relocate to shooting. In the later, even a guy like Chris Douglas-Roberts can look like a terrific slasher because guards are always attacking defenders recovering from down up with plenty of space ahead. I expect Wiggins to show more in terms of penetration as the team gets more in synch and better at emptying the post, but nobody should have any doubt he'd look a different player if he was in Kentucky.

[abark]

#3: Comparisons to Lebron and Kobe are misguided at best. Neither player played in college, and the issues with Wiggins game are mostly arising from the college game itself. All three players would likely have better stats their rookie season than they would as a freshmen simply because of the differences between the NBA and college.

You seriously think that Wiggins would have better stats in the NBA right now or that LeBron and Kobe would have had worse stats in college as freshman than they did as rookies in the NBA?

Many good NBA players actually have lower raw stats in college. The game is 8 minutes shorter, and the average team only scores about 70-75. That makes scoring 20 ppg mean a whole lot more.

Its the same reason you rarely see a top pg prospect average 10 assists in college. You would think Chris Paul and Deron would have put up double digits, but they both averaged about 6.

[breakchains]

Just to answer the question posed in the thread title, not only is Wiggins not a lock to go #1, he's basically a lock not to go #1, as Embiid is on a different level than everyone else as a prospect.

[Flight33]

Just to answer the question posed in the thread title, not only is Wiggins not a lock to go #1, he's basically a lock not to go #1, as Embiid is on a different level than everyone else as a prospect.

Tournament can change everything.

[Dr Positivity]

I guess he isn't

[SlowPaced]

Wiggins hasn't been that good in college but I do think it's just fooling people at this point. NBA game fits Wiggins much better. Paul George's stats in his freshman year weren't much different.

[Xerxes_Tetra]

Only 3 pts last night - Embiid had more blocks than Wiggins had points.