Luka Doncic

[Derento]

The only thing the mock drafts really say is that those guys see Doncic as a top prospect currently.
Which can be subject to change as we see how others do during the college season.
He's a feature part of a good euroleague team at the age of 17/18.
Doncic is going to play in international competion against Top european players as a major part as his team.
This main difference between him and the others so far they have went against fellow highschoolers and people don't know how they would do against better competition and coaching in college.

[QRich3]

Yup
They have Dzanan Musa above multiple perimeter players far better than him, for example.
I still remember Svi the lottery pick for like 3 years straight on their site

To be fair they also nail uncertain picks like Porzingis or late risers like Biyombo way before most other sites even know who they are.

So the thing is not that they overrate players in Europe, it's that they scout them sooner and better than most other sites. Sometimes that leads to overplaying their draft position relative to other sites, sometimes it leads to them being right before the others. I would certainly not say they get them wrong more often than not.

Notice, you cite big men and not perimeter players. As I've stated before, European big men have a far likelier chance of translating their game to the league. With perimeter players, DX has a terrible track record.

Not gonna spend a lot of time analyzing how true that is, but the way I remember it, they don't have a specially bad record with European guards, not compared to American ones anyway. Seems like a bit of confirmation bias on your end if I'm honest. But as most are saying here, it doesn't really matter much if Doncic is #1, #5 or #10 at the moment, it's just a ballpark that'll surely change when there's more information on other top prospects. Maybe when next season starts, Ayton looks like Drummond did in Connecticut and Bamba like Labissiere, and they both fall, making Doncic rise a bit, or maybe they all look awesome and Doncic doing his thing in Madrid is suddenly not as impressive in comparison. But I find it hard to argue right now that Doncic is not looking like he'll be among the top prospects.

[Gam]

Luka Doncic is now 1st pick on DraftExpress for 2018. Adrian Wojnarowski also said in his podcast that he has Doncic as 1st in his mock Draft. And his opinion should have some weight i would say.

I listened to that. He also cautioned that Doncic is not a lock to leave for the NBA until 2019. What DX or Woj say carries very little weight to me though. As soon as all these kids (Donic and the current H.S. seniors) start playing with and against NBA level talent the wheat will separate from the chaff. I seriously doubt Donic will be even a top 5 pick let alone #1. From what I've seen, he's not a very special athlete. He reminds me of Bird in that he's highly skilled with high IQ. But Bird was pushing 6'10" so he could get away with having less athleticism. Doncic is maybe 6'7" so he won't have that luxury. I can't imagine him being able to get his shot off against NBA SFs.

A 6'7" Larry Bird is very much so worth a first overall pick.

[Mirotic12]

Not really
DX overhypes and gets Euros wrong more often than not

Actually, they extremely overrate some European players, and extremely underrate other European players. I've very rarely seen them be actually accurate with a European player. It's almost always either an enormous overreach, or an insulting under valuing.

But you can't claim they over hype European players more often than not...the truth is, they usually do a colossal underrating of most European players. The over hyping they do generally seems to be with any players that USA sports media have taken an interest in.

Notice, you cite big men and not perimeter players. As I've stated before, European big men have a far likelier chance of translating their game to the league. With perimeter players, DX has a terrible track record.

Their track record with all European and international players is awful. They have been way wrong on plenty of European big men. So no reason to single that group of players out as being any different.

I listened to that. He also cautioned that Doncic is not a lock to leave for the NBA until 2019. What DX or Woj say carries very little weight to me though. As soon as all these kids (Donic and the current H.S. seniors) start playing with and against NBA level talent the wheat will separate from the chaff. I seriously doubt Donic will be even a top 5 pick let alone #1. From what I've seen, he's not a very special athlete. He reminds me of Bird in that he's highly skilled with high IQ. But Bird was pushing 6'10" so he could get away with having less athleticism. Doncic is maybe 6'7" so he won't have that luxury. I can't imagine him being able to get his shot off against NBA SFs.

Yeah, he's not that athletic...but you can't imagine him getting a shot off against NBA small forwards?

In reality, he occasionally plays against some guys in Spanish League and EuroLeague that are freak athletes by any standard, and he often plays against any number of guys that are more athletic than your average NBA player. Some of these myths about athletic difference between the highest European level and the NBA are really ludicrous.

NBA is full of players that are less athletic than the average EuroLeague player, and yet somehow, these NBA players manage to get their shots off all the time.

The NBA has loads of players that are not athletic, with many of them being below average athletes for the EuroLeague level. So how do these guys manage to play in the NBA? Doncic isn't that good of an athlete, that's true, but the same is also true of plenty of rotation players that are already in the NBA.

[SportsGuy8]

Seriously. Everyone is acting like the NBA is full of complete athletic freaks and that you need elite athleticism to combat it. Players like Hayward, Klay Thompson, Bogdanovic, Gallinari, even a guy like Fournier ... don't seem to be having that many problems scoring. Are they really that much more athletic than Doncic?

Not even mentioning that Doncic appears to be smarter than all of them ... So it's going to be even easier for him to find good spots.

[Mirotic12]

Seriously. Everyone is acting like the NBA is full of complete athletic freaks and that you need elite athleticism to combat it. Players like Hayward, Klay Thompson, Bogdanovic, Gallinari, even a guy like Fournier ... don't seem to be having that many problems scoring. Are they really that much more athletic than Doncic?

Not even mentioning that Doncic appears to be smarter than all of them ... So it's going to be even easier for him to find good spots.

Guys like 40 year old Jason Kidd, 38 year old Pablo Prigioni, Huertas, 40 year old Andre Miller........just to name a few players just in recent years that were playing as guards in NBA rotations.

You seriously could not name a single guard in EuroLeague that is not more athletic than all of those above examples. Some of the athleticism in Europe / NBA talk is really illogical.

[UcanUwill]

Interesting game against Olympiacos today. He really struggled against Panathinaikos, that got me worried. OLY is not that athletic as PAO, but they still have elite defensive players at perimeter, good test for Doncic.

What I fear is that NBA team drafts him, proclaims full time forward and plays him off ball full time. He is so much better as PG, he needs the ball at perimeter to be really good. He can play off ball, showing decent shooting, but I dont think his potential is very high without the ball in his hands.

[XTraderXL]

Interesting game against Olympiacos today. He really struggled against Panathinaikos, that got me worried. OLY is not that athletic as PAO, but they still have elite defensive players at perimeter, good test for Doncic.

What I fear is that NBA team drafts him, proclaims full time forward and plays him off ball full time. He is so much better as PG, he needs the ball at perimeter to be really good. He can play off ball, showing decent shooting, but I dont think his potential is very high without the ball in his hands.

Of course his potential is not as high without the ball in his hands. Thats true with ever play maker. I dont think any team will play him off ball, at least they will try him out as a PG and then its on him to show what he can do. It would be crazy not to give him a chance.
He will be just fine in the NBA. He is athletic enough already and he will improve in the next few years as his body matures and gets stronger. This week there was an interview with a coach he works with in the summer in the US. I cant remember his name but he played in the NBA with the Lakers in 2000 and won the title with them. The guy said he worked with him every day for the past 2 summers and he is plenty athletic for the NBA. The guy also works with other NBA players so he has a good perspective on how he stacks up.

Game against PAO was not the best but he had his best 2 games in EL this year against Baskonia playing against one of the best athletes in the League in Hanga and he absolutely dominated both games. I dont think his athleticism is the problem, it is more lack of physical strength that limits what he can show athletically. He struggles the most against aggressive and physical players even if they are not great athletes. Hanga is a great athlete but he is not very strong so he had no problems against him. I have been writing about this before, I had the same problem at his age when playing stronger/older players(even though I was athletically on another level then majority of them), I really struggled and as I got stronger at 20 the game completely changed for me because defenders couldnt push me around anymore. Its really hard to play when you use 50% of your energy on just trying to keep your balance when defenders play aggressively and every step on the court fells like you are carrying additional 70 lbs.

[SportsGuy8]

Seriously. Everyone is acting like the NBA is full of complete athletic freaks and that you need elite athleticism to combat it. Players like Hayward, Klay Thompson, Bogdanovic, Gallinari, even a guy like Fournier ... don't seem to be having that many problems scoring. Are they really that much more athletic than Doncic?

Not even mentioning that Doncic appears to be smarter than all of them ... So it's going to be even easier for him to find good spots.

Guys like 40 year old Jason Kidd, 38 year old Pablo Prigioni, Huertas, 40 year old Andre Miller........just to name a few players just in recent years that were playing as guards in NBA rotations.

You seriously could not name a single guard in EuroLeague that is not more athletic than all of those above examples. Some of the athleticism in Europe / NBA talk is really illogical.

That's true also. Obviously they weren't the same players, but the sheer fact that they weren't liabilities proves a lot. Sheer athleticism (and the need for it) has gotten highly overrated over the past decade or so, even though older players continue showing just what an advanced mind can do ...

Game against PAO was not the best but he had his best 2 games in EL this year against Baskonia playing against one of the best athletes in the League in Hanga and he absolutely dominated both games. I dont think his athleticism is the problem, it is more lack of physical strength that limits what he can show athletically. He struggles the most against aggressive and physical players even if they are not great athletes. Hanga is a great athlete but he is not very strong so he had no problems against him. I have been writing about this before, I had the same problem at his age when playing stronger/older players(even though I was athletically on another level then majority of them), I really struggled and as I got stronger at 20 the game completely changed for me because defenders couldnt push me around anymore. Its really hard to play when you use 50% of your energy on just trying to keep your balance when defenders play aggressively and every step on the court fells like you are carrying additional 70 lbs.

This is actually an excellent point. It's tough to face opponents who physically defend you, but that's something that's only really possible in Europe/FIBA nowadays, since such defense is quickly a foul in the perimeter in the NBA. It's not that difficult to adapt to defenders with supreme athleticism if they cannot really physically abuse you also. It's much more difficult to face physical abuse than supreme athleticism.

He's already quite strong, though, but he's going to get even stronger (something that's impossible not to happen) and that's one of the key reasons why he's as close to a "sure thing" as we've seen from perimeter players in recent drafts. Many lottery picks struggle/disappoint in the NBA because they cannot adapt to the increased physicality, but Doncic is already facing more physicality he's EVER going to face in the NBA (again because of the rules), and he's already passing that test quite well.

[SportsGuy8]

Oh, one thought: I truly believe Doncic can do for the perception of perimeter players what Jokic is starting to do for big men. Jokic is starting to show just how big of a difference a supreme mind can be (even if someone is somewhat athletically challenged compared to opposition), and while there are massive differences because of their heights and positions, I believe Doncic can have a similar effect, just in a different way.

[UcanUwill]

You keep talking about his mind, but is his BBIQ really that high? I mean its high, but I wouldn't say its transcendent, he can reach Andre Miller or Boris Diaw level I think.

[XTraderXL]

Yes, Doncic is strong for his age but he is still not anywhere near guys aged 25. Strength at 18 is completely different than at a 25+. Around that age boys become men mentally and physically. Men develop "old man strength" as they grow older even if they dont work out, it is a natural occurrence. Couple that with working on your body with the best coaches, nutrition and technology and you get a monster relative to an average person. He is already one of the best all around players in Europe and he will only improve for the next few years. It is true he is not an elite athlete, he will never be RW or LeBron but how many players in history really were on their level and still had HOF careers?

I was one of the few people that actually expected him to have the season he is having this year and I fully expect him to be in the running for Euroleague MVP next season. He will have a bigger offensive role, more minutes, he will improve over the summer and spend a month and a half under mentorship of currently the best Euro PG in Dragic and coached by an NBA coach.


In regards to Jokic I was thinking the same. I even think that Doncic is more athletic for his position than Jokic is for his. Who would have thought that NBA game will be so well suited for a guy who can barely dunk?

[XTraderXL]

You keep talking about his mind, but is his BBIQ really that high? I mean its high, but I wouldn't say its transcendent, he can reach Andre Miller or Boris Diaw level I think.

Show me a 18yo in the last 20 years in Europe who could do what Doncic is doing. The guy makes the right basketball play 95% of the time. Why do you think Laso gives him more minutes in close games than in games where Real blows teams out? Why is he always playing him in the last 3 min when games are tight? Its because he knows he will make the right play. When he is on the court, Real offense looks much more in control than with Llull and he makes his teammates much better than Sergio does.

I would love to see Doncic play just one game against players his age where he could really show how much ahead of everyone else he is at understanding the game. I mean he showed that in 2015 against 2 years older players and he is now on another level compared to back then both physically and skill wise.

[UcanUwill]

You keep talking about his mind, but is his BBIQ really that high? I mean its high, but I wouldn't say its transcendent, he can reach Andre Miller or Boris Diaw level I think.

Show me a 18yo in the last 20 years in Europe who could do what Doncic is doing. The guy makes the right basketball play 95% of the time. Why do you think Laso gives him more minutes in close games than in games where Real blows teams out? Why is he always playing him in the last 3 min when games are tight? Its because he knows he will make the right play. When he is on the court, Real offense looks much more in control than with Llull and he makes his teammates much better than Sergio does.

I would love to see Doncic play just one game against players his age where he could really show how much ahead of everyone else he is at understanding the game. I mean he showed that in 2015 against 2 years older players and he is now on another level compared to back then both physically and skill wise.

I agree that he is FAR ahead of the curve, and that what he is doing at age 17-18 is pretty unprecedented. He is probably the smartest player on Real Madird already. I am just saying I dont think his BBIQ is that transcendent or that he will necessarily revolutionise the game or anything like that. He is smart player and I compared him to smart players.

Ricky Rubio I thought was transcendent. His feel for the game was so high its insane, on defense he just knew so well when to gamble, when to help, when to switch, and on offense his vision, playmaking and ability to create for others in both fast break and in half court was amazing.

[Mirotic12]

Olympiacos is the most physical team in EuroLeague, and they easily completely shut down Doncic 100% for that whole game. Even though the refs gifted Doncic a ridiculous foul as usual, where he shot an air ball on a layup and wasn't even touched by the defender...but the refs blew the whistle as they keep doing for him. It was annoying to see him not even get touched on the replay.

Anyway, that game shows he's a an 18 year old kid no matter what his level is compared to other 18 year old kids. Very intense and physical game, and aside from the ridiculous flop of the year by Jeff Taylor (what the hell was THAT?), it was a hard core physical game with the refs not giving anything either (Spanoulis got fouled very hard every time he drove to the basket - and not a single whistle drawn).

That game is a basic blueprint for any EuroLeague team going forward in the playoffs or final four that faces Real Madrid as far as Doncic goes. Just put a body on him and be physical...he's an 18 year old kid and will get out muscled by every single player.

To Doncic's credit though, he's really mature mentally. He didn't lose his composure or get rattled, even though it was obvious he couldn't physically do anything against such physical defense by grown men. But he kept calm and kept making the basic right plays, which is something for a kid his age.

I agree that he is FAR ahead of the curve, and that what he is doing at age 17-18 is pretty unprecedented. He is probably the smartest player on Real Madird already. I am just saying I dont think his BBIQ is that transcendent or that he will necessarily revolutionise the game or anything like that. He is smart player and I compared him to smart players.

No way. Doncic is a smart player for sure, but no way at all is he the smartest player on Real Madrid. Rudy Fernandez, Andres Nocioni, and Felipe Reyes are definitely smarter than Doncic. Regardless of all of their antics and theatrics that have made them such hated players, you have to give credit where credit is due.

[SportsGuy8]

You keep talking about his mind, but is his BBIQ really that high? I mean its high, but I wouldn't say its transcendent, he can reach Andre Miller or Boris Diaw level I think.

Show me a 18yo in the last 20 years in Europe who could do what Doncic is doing. The guy makes the right basketball play 95% of the time. Why do you think Laso gives him more minutes in close games than in games where Real blows teams out? Why is he always playing him in the last 3 min when games are tight? Its because he knows he will make the right play. When he is on the court, Real offense looks much more in control than with Llull and he makes his teammates much better than Sergio does.

I would love to see Doncic play just one game against players his age where he could really show how much ahead of everyone else he is at understanding the game. I mean he showed that in 2015 against 2 years older players and he is now on another level compared to back then both physically and skill wise.

I agree that he is FAR ahead of the curve, and that what he is doing at age 17-18 is pretty unprecedented. He is probably the smartest player on Real Madird already. I am just saying I dont think his BBIQ is that transcendent or that he will necessarily revolutionise the game or anything like that. He is smart player and I compared him to smart players.

Ricky Rubio I thought was transcendent. His feel for the game was so high its insane, on defense he just knew so well when to gamble, when to help, when to switch, and on offense his vision, playmaking and ability to create for others in both fast break and in half court was amazing.

I'm one of the biggest Rubio homers, but I think it's possible we're slightly overrating Rubio's BBIQ (which is still extremely high, don't get me wrong) because it stands out much more due to his flashiness, gambles and slightly riskier plays, while we're underrating Doncic's because he is more controlled, subdued, limiting his mistakes ... all the little things that don't really stand out, but actually speak volumes.

Can we really be sure that Rubio is the much smarter player? If your main objective was strictly to win games and play winning basketball, are you sure you would choose Rubio's take on smart basketball than Doncic's? I'm not that sure.

Besides, even if he doesn't quite get to Rubio's level in terms of BBIQ, he's still going to have a much bigger impact, because he doesn't have Rubio's limitations.

No way. Doncic is a smart player for sure, but no way at all is he the smartest player on Real Madrid. Rudy Fernandez, Andres Nocioni, and Felipe Reyes are definitely smarter than Doncic. Regardless of all of their antics and theatrics that have made them such hated players, you have to give credit where credit is due.

Fernandez constantly makes boneheaded plays and forces things too much. He's just flashy, making him appear smarter than he is. Besides, the fact that he's having a FG% of 36 and 3PT% of 32 for the season, while still continuing to chuck, pretty much disqualifies him in this regard.

You could make a better argument for Nocioni and Reyes, though, that's much more debatable. They have a massive edge in experience, obviously ...

[UcanUwill]

I'm one of the biggest Rubio homers, but I think it's possible we're slightly overrating Rubio's BBIQ (which is still extremely high, don't get me wrong) because it stands out much more due to his flashiness, gambles and slightly riskier plays, while we're underrating Doncic's because he is more controlled, subdued, limiting his mistakes ... all the little things that don't really stand out, but actually speak volumes.

I thought of it myself. Questioned it, but at the end, I don't thing I was overrating Rubio really. Rubio is really one of the kind I thought, where Doncic is smart and very in control, but at the end of the day, I could name a lot of players who have the same traits, play similary and appear to be just as smart. I will give Doncic the benefit of the doubt, he is young, his understanding of the game might still grow, altho personally I don't think it will grow that much.

Anyway, another sub bar game. My fantasy point guards (Doncic and Heurtel) disappointed this week.

[XTraderXL]

Doncic is playing hurt the last few weeks. You can clearly see that he cant even run normally without the ball and the small injury against Barca on Wednesday didt help...

[Mirotic12]

Anyway, another sub bar game. My fantasy point guards (Doncic and Heurtel) disappointed this week.

As I keep telling you about Heurtel...he's a really good screen roll guard offensively, but he's a one trick kind of player. He can't play unless the whole game and team revolves around him. And the issue is that he simply plays too selfish on offense and never tries on defense.

So what happens to him in every team he plays with (Baskonia, French NT, now is happening in Efes too) is that eventually his coaches get tired of him and realize it's better to move on from him. He won't be in Efes much longer.

He's athletic, he has great size for a point guard, he's a really good shooter, and he can really run screen roll, but he plays a losing style of basketball that just can't be successful in the long term.

[UcanUwill]

As I keep telling you about Heurtel....

I am starting to see what you are saying. I Still really like Thomas and would take him with open arms, but his game is more one dimensional than I previously realized. It is easier to prep for him than a guy like Jasikevicius for example, who was far more spontaneous on the court.

Back on topic, Doncic mean streak ended few weeks ago and he seem to be in a serious slump right now. Maybe he is injured, I dont know, but hes been very underwhelming since Pao game.