My last response for the time being.
reanimator wrote:Is this strictly in the halfcourt? I've made it pretty clear multiple times the distinction between his athleticism/production in space where he can build momentum and playmake at a high level vs in a halfcourt setting where he often struggles to get separation on a drive or finish off a drive with enough touch to convert. This is further exacerbated when Alabama plays formidable defense. Yes, these things matter if a possible outcome is Tatum/Ingram/PG/whatever....
No, it's not in the half court because I don't have access to that data. If anyone has synergy data on this – especially for conference games only – I'd be happy to see them. Until then, I can only use the public data we have available.
But it's hard to believe that Miller improved his 2P% to 62% without a considerable improvement in the half court as well. Also, just stating the obvious: all players are much less efficient in the half court. So that in and of itself would not be a cause of concern for Miller. We would have to see the efficiency relative to his peers.
reanimator wrote:G League and NCAA D1 do not have the same amount of eyeballs. It is much easier for a armchair scout and casual fans to access an Alabama game and see them dominate which leaves quite the impression. No fault of Miller's but thats just a byproduct of the leagues they are in.
But we're not talking about casual fans here. At least I'm not. The assessments that matter for the discussion are from those who have seen both play during that stretch (which I have, and many others on here, as well as draft pundits and obviously scouts).
reanimator wrote:A bit deceptive due to all the penalty FTs in the last game, but not really addressing the point of my statement. Scoot's inability to convert is conventionally thought of as a product of his shot distribution, yet Miller whose gone 29/80 in the past 5 games allegedly has no limitations to explain such a stretch.
Nah, that's not deceptive. eFG% paints the same picture, and a couple FTs in one game do not change my point whatsoever. Also, I'm not sure what you refer to with your second sentence. Shot selection is an issue with Scoot overall (!), but his recent stretch clearly also about shot conversion. Scoot's problem is that when he doesn't convert at a high clip with his already less-than-ideal shot selection, he's incredibly inefficient. Miller's issue was shot conversion. His shot just didn't fall as it used to. There can be many reasons for that – including defensive coverage and shot selection – but just being cold obviously factors in as well. I can show you a 5-game stretch by Curry where he hits maybe 20% of his 3s. Does that mean he has limitations when it comes to shooting? Obviously not. It just means he's been in a slump, possibly augmented by playing good defenses (which make the vast majority of players less efficient by definition).
reanimator wrote:Its been a mixed bag, actually. I've seen halves (1st half Auburn game) where they switched onto him and scored at will and other halves where he competed onball and even provided some rim protection. Its also easier to play "good" defense when you are buoyed by great size, athleticism, and rim protection with guys like Bediako/Clowney. Not saying Scoot will be good on that end at all but roster and competition level can't be discounted.
This is about individual and contribution to team defense. Sure, for the defense overall is helps to have a good back-line. And it may help to limit the consequences (!) of mistakes or poor defense, but it doesn't eradicate their existence. I've watched both Miller's and Scoot's defense very closely and their defensive ability has little to nothing to do with their teammates.
Miller regularly provides help defense himself, he's pretty solid at rotations already. He also rebounds incredibly well, including when it's contested, which has been valuable for his team. He contests shots pretty well with his length, and he puts effort into defense. That doesn't mean he cannot have bad match-ups (e.g. super quick Guards attacking from the perimeter, strong players when they get the ball deep in the post) or that he's good in all areas of defense (e.g. disrupting ball handlers, long close-outs to the perimeter) but he's been a very consistent plus on that end. Scoot, on the other hand, has played poor defense. He's doing nothing of what I just mentioned Miller is doing. First and foremost, his effort just isn't consistent. And then he gets bodied up too easily, he misses rotations or messes up switches or loses contact to his man, and just due to his lack of size compared to someone like Miller, he can't provide nearly as much in terms of help defense and rebounding, nor can he as effectively contest shots.
So it's pretty clear that Miller is just a considerably better defender than Scoot no matter who their teammates are. Teammates aren't going to turn a plus defender into a negative one or vice versa – they may only hide or exacerbate your deficiencies to some extent. But I thought that's not really up for debate.
reanimator wrote:Scouts aren't infallible and neither is the "consensus" so yeah I question if some people watch the games when they make declaratively false statements about said games. If I turn on ESPN and hear from DX how Miller is some isolation/PnR ballhandler maestro rather than someone whose flashes but holistically has struggled in those regards then I'm looking at it sideways.
I never said they are infallible. Clearly they are, as are we. Demonstrated every single draft. And of course they have bad takes, too. But the idea that Miller is rising and Scoot is falling is because people who intently follow the draft just change their opinions based on whoever they last saw on TV is far-fetched, to put it mildly.
It certainly doesn't apply to me, for what it's worth. I've watched more G-League games recently and my opinion of Cissoko skyrocketed and my view of Miller has improved as well, whereas I've grown more concerned about Scoot and his game. Meanwhile, I watched Miller and became more and more convinced of him being a truly elite prospect, whereas other players who I have watched during that same stretch left me less convinced.
edit: And to be abundantly clear (which it should already be): I obviously do not believe that Miller is a flawless prospect. Of course he has deficiencies and flaws. His shot can be a bit flat and his release point could be higher, which also limits his pull-up ability against long defenders who stay in contact. He lacks the high-level explosion to effectively contest on long close-outs or blow by his defender at will. He lacks strength which limits him in the post on both ends and his finishing in general (he has to make up for it with length and touch, which has worked better over the course of the season). I think he's a strong ball handler for his size but he's obviously not Luka and will therefore struggle with good on-ball pressure. He has playmaking and passing chops but not to the level that he's a legit Point Forward at this point. His midrange game needs to be further refined, too, and I would like to see him be more active as a cutter (he floats around the perimeter a bit too much when he's off the ball). So yeah, I'm very open to talking about his deficiencies. I'd just like to keep perspective, and – since this is a draft board – ensure that he's compared to the alternatives and not the almighty.
