Reed Sheppard and Rob Dillingham - 2024 NBA Draft

[Colbinii]

But you said:



Now you're saying his "inability to create" is not on a surface level. Which is it?

He has low volume of scoring/assists, which makes it easy to think he lacks an ability to create.

But his volume of assists isn't even low. 4.5 per game isn't that low to me historically for a Freshman guard. Even for a lead guard. Seems fine. That's a weird criticism to me. Seems like a strawman.

It's what I thought of him through most of January before watching more of his film.

[JMAC3]

It's interesting to me that people aren't comparing Reed to Cason. I can only guess why. But Cason is actually a pretty good comp for his NBA role. Cason not a great athlete either. Just a smart winning basketball player who can do pretty much everything well. Had a lot of the same criticisms levied against him as Reed, and was/is a worse shooter.

Cason Wallace: 6'2.5", 6'8.5" wingspan, 195 pounds, very good lateral quickness
Reed Sheppard: 6'1", 6'3" wingspan, 187 pounds, so-so lateral quickness

Is the reason very hard to guess.

Sheppard's major issue is that he's an elite help defender and bad 1 on 1 defender, but being a bad 1 on 1 defender in the NBA as a guard almost instantly negates any value you bring on help defense as you'll be targeted 100% of the time. Cason Wallace was an extremely good 1 on 1 defender in college.

What does Sheppard do when the Celtics focus their offense on getting a switch where Sheppard is guarding Jayson Tatum.

What's the plan then.

You're vastly overthinking it. I mean basically what you're telling me is I should worry about a situation where Sheppard is starting against the Celtics in the NBA Finals.

Ok, I'll take that problem.

So you still think Cason is a good comp? Regardless of his superior size and length?

Are you expecting Cason to be a primary ball handler for OKC in the next year or two?

[The-Power]

It's interesting to me that people aren't comparing Reed to Cason.

Right in this thread around a week ago.

One player that I think might actually be a solid comparison for him is his direct predecessor, Cason Wallace. Sheppard projects to be the better shooter coming out of college but he's obviously overperforming a bit for the season while Wallace has stepped it up in the NBA. So while I'd have Sheppard higher than Wallace coming out of college, I think right now it's a close call as to who I'd rather have going forward. I trust Wallace's defense and driving game more, but I think Sheppard makes up some ground as the better passer.

[EvanZ]

Cason Wallace: 6'2.5", 6'8.5" wingspan, 195 pounds, very good lateral quickness
Reed Sheppard: 6'1", 6'3" wingspan, 187 pounds, so-so lateral quickness

Is the reason very hard to guess.

Sheppard's major issue is that he's an elite help defender and bad 1 on 1 defender, but being a bad 1 on 1 defender in the NBA as a guard almost instantly negates any value you bring on help defense as you'll be targeted 100% of the time. Cason Wallace was an extremely good 1 on 1 defender in college.

What does Sheppard do when the Celtics focus their offense on getting a switch where Sheppard is guarding Jayson Tatum.

What's the plan then.

You're vastly overthinking it. I mean basically what you're telling me is I should worry about a situation where Sheppard is starting against the Celtics in the NBA Finals.

Ok, I'll take that problem.

So you still think Cason is a good comp? Regardless of his superior size and length?

Are you expecting Cason to be a primary ball handler for OKC in the next year or two?

\

Comps are never perfect. Still going with Cason. He's clearly not OKC's lead ballhandler as long as Shai is there. Neither is Jalen Williams. Neither is Chet. Does that mean we shouldn't draft any of those guys high? No, no it does not.

[Hal14]

Cason Wallace: 6'2.5", 6'8.5" wingspan, 195 pounds, very good lateral quickness
Reed Sheppard: 6'1", 6'3" wingspan, 187 pounds, so-so lateral quickness

This is pretty lazy analysis. Yeah let's just compare and evaluate players based on size, lateral quickness and call it a day.

Lazy !

How about we dig deeper and look more closely at how they actually impact the game on the court?

Let's talk not just athleticism but functional athleticism. You know, how their athleticism translates in actual basketball games.



If Cason is bigger, stronger and has longer wingspan, then how is it that Sheppard had better steals %, blocks % and rebound % ?

Hmm, maybe because basketball is about more than just physical tools. It's also about effort, hustle, having quick hands. Being able to read the ball coming off the rim, being able to read your man's hips to know which direction he is gonna drive the ball. Knowing your opponent's strengths/weaknesses, timing and anticipation for steals/blocks/rebounds, knowing when to gamble and go for a steal and when to stay home, having good technique when defending, having good technique when boxing out, etc.

Cason might have better physical tools but looking at the numbers, the only thing he does better on a basketball court is dunk the ball.

Sheppard's major issue is that he's an elite help defender and bad 1 on 1 defender

Eh, that sounds like hyperbole to me. If he was *that* bad as a 1 on 1 defender, then why is he 1st on Kentucky's entire team in DBPM and 2nd in defensive rating?

Also, if he's "bad" as an on ball defender, why does he get so many blocks? When you block someone's shot, that is on ball defense. Unless (on rare occasions) where you might fly in at the last second on help D. But most of Sheppard's blocks are on the ball..

Blocks % in college (for Dyson it's G league)
Sheppard: 2.8
M-Smart: 2.1
Lonzo: 2.1
Dyson Daniels: 2.0
Caruso: 1.8
A-Black: 1.8
D-Brooks: 1.7
Jrue: 1.7
Dennis Smith Jr: 1.2
J-Suggs: 1.1
Pat Bev: 0.9
Dejounte: 0.8
L-Dort: 0.8
K-Lowry: 0.6
CP3: 0.4

Sheppard also has a crazy high steals % and many of those steals are when playing on ball D.

What does Sheppard do when the Celtics focus their offense on getting a switch where Sheppard is guarding Jayson Tatum.

What's the plan then.

First off, that's a weird question because depending on what team drafts Sheppard, he might only play against the Celtics 2x a season. So who cares? And 1 of those games Tatum might be injured or resting.

Also, many teams don't play a switch heavy defense. So if the team tries to switch Sheppard onto a certain offensive player, Sheppard's time could just, ya know...not switch.

Also, teams try going after Payton Pritchard all the time..they try getting a matchup they want and try to have one of their better scores go iso on Pritchard - but Pritchard is scrappy and most of the time teams fail to score when they hunt him. He is able to hold his own pretty well in those situations. Last I checked his stats for iso defense are solid.

And Sheppard is a much better defender than Pritchard was in college - especially when Pritchard was only a freshman.

[Hal14]

I think I'm at the point where I'm confident he won't be a star player and that his best role outcome is as a high end role playing starter.

That's pretty much the high end outcome for every guy in this draft, except for *maybe* 1 or 2 players.

[REJECTEDBYCLARK]

I think I'm at the point where I'm confident he won't be a star player and that his best role outcome is as a high end role playing starter.

That's pretty much the high end outcome for every guy in this draft, except for *maybe* 1 or 2 players.

I'd disagree with that, I see about 6 or 7 guys who I think have star upside and Cody Williams and Risacher aren't included in that list.

[JustBuzzin]

I think I'm at the point where I'm confident he won't be a star player and that his best role outcome is as a high end role playing starter.

That's pretty much the high end outcome for every guy in this draft, except for *maybe* 1 or 2 players.

I'd disagree with that, I see about 6 or 7 guys who I think have star upside and Cody Williams and Risacher aren't included in that list.

I don't see any stars in this draft. Maybe someone makes a allstar team once, but I don't see a potential star from anyone.

I look at this draft as the potential high end role players. I can see a bunch of these players being great as a 3rd option on a championship team.

[Hal14]

I think I'm at the point where I'm confident he won't be a star player and that his best role outcome is as a high end role playing starter.

That's pretty much the high end outcome for every guy in this draft, except for *maybe* 1 or 2 players.

I'd disagree with that, I see about 6 or 7 guys who I think have star upside and Cody Williams and Risacher aren't included in that list.

C'mon now. You honestly think there's 6 or 7 guys in tis draft with a legit shot at being a star?

Name them..

Before you do, I can pretty much guarantee that most of them have a low probability of reaching that ceiling..while also having a lower floor than Sheppard..

IMO, I can see Rob and Holland *maybe* becoming stars...Sarr will probably just be a high end role player at best..same with Buzelis and everyone else..

[MemphisX]

That's pretty much the high end outcome for every guy in this draft, except for *maybe* 1 or 2 players.

I'd disagree with that, I see about 6 or 7 guys who I think have star upside and Cody Williams and Risacher aren't included in that list.

C'mon now. You honestly think there's 6 or 7 guys in tis draft with a legit shot at being a star?

Name them..

Before you do, I can pretty much guarantee that most of them have a low probability of reaching that ceiling..while also having a lower floor than Sheppard..

IMO, I can see Rob and Holland *maybe* becoming stars...Sarr will probably just be a high end role player at best..same with Buzelis and everyone else..

The star upside in this draft will come from a guy(s) that have unusual development. It will be nothing anyone can see pre-draft.

[JustBuzzin]

That's pretty much the high end outcome for every guy in this draft, except for *maybe* 1 or 2 players.

I'd disagree with that, I see about 6 or 7 guys who I think have star upside and Cody Williams and Risacher aren't included in that list.

C'mon now. You honestly think there's 6 or 7 guys in tis draft with a legit shot at being a star?

Name them..

Before you do, I can pretty much guarantee that most of them have a low probability of reaching that ceiling..while also having a lower floor than Sheppard..

IMO, I can see Rob and Holland *maybe* becoming stars...Sarr will probably just be a high end role player at best..same with Buzelis and everyone else..

Yeah 7 is a stretch for sure.

I honestly don't see any, but if I had to guess I would say Cody Williams and Matas Buzelis.

[REJECTEDBYCLARK]

That's pretty much the high end outcome for every guy in this draft, except for *maybe* 1 or 2 players.

I'd disagree with that, I see about 6 or 7 guys who I think have star upside and Cody Williams and Risacher aren't included in that list.

C'mon now. You honestly think there's 6 or 7 guys in tis draft with a legit shot at being a star?

Name them..

Before you do, I can pretty much guarantee that most of them have a low probability of reaching that ceiling..while also having a lower floor than Sheppard..

IMO, I can see Rob and Holland *maybe* becoming stars...Sarr will probably just be a high end role player at best..same with Buzelis and everyone else..

I would have named them but since you're writing my opinion off already there's no point. The fact that you had guys like Podziemski and Marcus Sasser ranked as fringe prospects last year and are trying to preach to me is quite amusing.

[HadAnEffectHere]

"If Reed Sheppard is a bad 1 on 1 defender, why is he rated by catch-all defensive stats (which also count help defense to be clear) as the best defender on the 2023-2024 Kentucky Wildcats, a notoriously terrible team on defense featuring turnstiles like Dillingham, Edwards, Bradshaw, and Ivisic."

I don't know, dude.

[REJECTEDBYCLARK]

Watch on YouTube

[SeattleJazzFan]

Sheppard putting on a show in the 2nd half.

[King Ken]

Another 1 for Team Shepp

[OriAr]

#SheppardHerd

[Chuck Everett]

Dillingham looks like he's 5'11. Is his archetype to be a scorer like Isaiah Thomas (Celtics-version)?

[FarBeyondDriven]

perfect game to separate those who watch the games and understand context, those that watch and can't, and those that just read box scores and how all three relate to evaluating prospects and projecting them forward as pros.

If you watched you would have noticed that 5 of Sheppard's threes were wide open. I mean WIDE open. One other was over the 5'11" PG and the other was off a step back against a backup that should never play a minute in a college game. Again, amazing shooter. But context is necessary. Because he'll never be guarded by defenders like these in the NBA and he'll never be as wide open almost none of this will translate. He's an amazing college player. But as we've seen with countless amazing college players throughout history, it doesn't always translate to the NBA. People love to bring up Sheppard's blocks. Are you really impressed that he blocked a desperation heave during the last seconds from a 5'11" PG? Not all blocks are created equal. Almost none of his blocks will translate to the NBA

Now as far as Dillingham goes, he's very similar to Knecht in that they're both absolute sieves on defense. But at least with Knecht he has adequate size and athleticism for his position. All the high degree of difficulty shots on drives you see from Dillingham won't happen in the NBA against better and longer athletes. Like with Sheppard, what you're seeing in college won't translate to the NBA. Sure, if you let Dillingham be a tank commander on a bad team he'd put up huge offensive numbers. And that might happen. And the annoying "I told you so" on here will commence. But it won't lead to being a winner and getting to the playoffs. But some don't really care about all that. Just look at Luka stans.

btw this is a fraudulent Tennessee team. I have no idea why they are ranked so high. It's basically Knecht and a bunch of 3 and 4 star guys around him. He's really carrying them and fooling the committee apparently.

[MemphisX]

perfect game to separate those who watch the games and understand context, those that watch and can't, and those that just read box scores and how all three relate to evaluating prospects and projecting them forward as pros.

If you watched you would have noticed that 5 of Sheppard's threes were wide open. I mean WIDE open. One other was over the 5'11" PG and the other was off a step back against a backup that should never play a minute in a college game. Again, amazing shooter. But context is necessary. Because he'll never be guarded by defenders like these in the NBA and he'll never be as wide open almost none of this will translate. He's an amazing college player. But as we've seen with countless amazing college players throughout history, it doesn't always translate to the NBA.

Now as far as Dillingham goes, he's very similar to Knecht in that they're both absolute sieves on defense. But at least with Knecht he has adequate size and athleticism for his position. All the high degree of difficulty shots on drives you see from Dillingham won't happen in the NBA against better and longer athletes. Like with Sheppard, what you're seeing in college won't translate to the NBA. Sure, if you let Dillingham be a tank commander on a bad team he'd put up huge offensive numbers. And that might happen. And the annoying "I told you so" on here will commence. But it won't lead to being a winner and getting to the playoffs. But some don't really care about all that. Just look at Luka stans.

btw this is a fraudulent Tennessee team. I have no idea why they are ranked so high. It's basically Knecht and a bunch of 3 and 4 star guys around him. He's really carrying them and fooling the committee apparently.

It is a shame to resort to this every time a prospect you are down on has a big game. And the fact that you have to keep doing it should be a sign to you but it isn't.