2021 NBA Draft, Part 2

[Jadoogar]

Barnes can create shots for others. He has a very strong feel for the game, is a gifted passer and has shown an ability to be a high-impact player.

I'd trust Masai if he picked Barnes.

We’ve already seen with Ben Simmons what happens to non-shooting “good passers” who also can’t make free throws, they become a liability in the playoffs. Look at how important shot creation is with guys like Chris Paul, Devin Booker, Trey Young, and Milwaukee’s guards. They work because they can create their own shot and can score.

You're just echoing my previous point.

You're taking Ben Simmons, who is an anomaly, and applying that anomaly to Barnes. It makes no logical sense what you are doing here but, as I mentioned earlier, people project their concerns or beliefs of one player and cast it onto others.

There is an insanely high probability Barnes becomes a significantly better shooter than Ben Simmons.

"shoot better than Ben Simmons" is an extremely low bar and not exactly encouraging.
Kawhi has made everyone believe every non-shooter is going to turn into an elite shooter. How many non-shooters have actually turned into good shooters later in their career? Jason Kidd did it much later and even then he was more of a catch and shoot player.

[ciueli]

Barnes can create shots for others. He has a very strong feel for the game, is a gifted passer and has shown an ability to be a high-impact player.

I'd trust Masai if he picked Barnes.

We’ve already seen with Ben Simmons what happens to non-shooting “good passers” who also can’t make free throws, they become a liability in the playoffs. Look at how important shot creation is with guys like Chris Paul, Devin Booker, Trey Young, and Milwaukee’s guards. They work because they can create their own shot and can score.

You're just echoing my previous point.

You're taking Ben Simmons, who is an anomaly, and applying that anomaly to Barnes. It makes no logical sense what you are doing here but, as I mentioned earlier, people project their concerns or beliefs of one player and cast it onto others.

There is an insanely high probability Barnes becomes a significantly better shooter than Ben Simmons.

I prefer to look at what a prospect can do now rather than guessing what they might be able to do in the future. 27% from 3 and 62% from the line screams non-shooter to me. If we’re comparing Barnes to Simmons, at least Simmons was a dominant rebounder in college, Barnes averaged 4 RPG in 25 MPG, that’s pretty bad for someone who is supposed to have length and athleticism as a main selling point.

[Charm]

We’ve already seen with Ben Simmons what happens to non-shooting “good passers” who also can’t make free throws, they become a liability in the playoffs. Look at how important shot creation is with guys like Chris Paul, Devin Booker, Trey Young, and Milwaukee’s guards. They work because they can create their own shot and can score.

You're just echoing my previous point.

You're taking Ben Simmons, who is an anomaly, and applying that anomaly to Barnes. It makes no logical sense what you are doing here but, as I mentioned earlier, people project their concerns or beliefs of one player and cast it onto others.

There is an insanely high probability Barnes becomes a significantly better shooter than Ben Simmons.

I prefer to look at what a prospect can do now rather than guessing what they might be able to do in the future. 27% from 3 and 62% from the line screams non-shooter to me. If we’re comparing Barnes to Simmons, at least Simmons was a dominant rebounder in college, Barnes averaged 4 RPG in 25 MPG, that’s pretty bad for someone who is supposed to have length and athleticism as a main selling point.

Total rebound rate isn't very useful because it's so dependent on teammates. Barnes and Simmons are similar in size, but Simmons was by far the biggest player on LSU, while Barnes played on an FSU team that started one of the biggest frontcourts in the NCAA and didn't have a single rotation player smaller than 6'4" 210lbs.

Offensive rebound rate is a bit more accurate, because there players are mostly competing with opponents for rebounds, not competing with their own teammates. Barnes posted an offensive rebound rate of 7.4%, compared to 9.6% for Simmons. Both very good numbers (e.g. compared to 2.3% for Cade and 2.9% for Wagner), but Simmons just a touch better.

[Big J]

We’ve already seen with Ben Simmons what happens to non-shooting “good passers” who also can’t make free throws, they become a liability in the playoffs. Look at how important shot creation is with guys like Chris Paul, Devin Booker, Trey Young, and Milwaukee’s guards. They work because they can create their own shot and can score.

You're just echoing my previous point.

You're taking Ben Simmons, who is an anomaly, and applying that anomaly to Barnes. It makes no logical sense what you are doing here but, as I mentioned earlier, people project their concerns or beliefs of one player and cast it onto others.

There is an insanely high probability Barnes becomes a significantly better shooter than Ben Simmons.

"shoot better than Ben Simmons" is an extremely low bar and not exactly encouraging.
Kawhi has made everyone believe every non-shooter is going to turn into an elite shooter. How many non-shooters have actually turned into good shooters later in their career? Jason Kidd did it much later and even then he was more of a catch and shoot player.

Tons of bigs have transitioned from non shooters to elite shooters. Hell, Brook Lopez never even attempted them his first few years and now they are half his shots.

[The Moose]

You're just echoing my previous point.

You're taking Ben Simmons, who is an anomaly, and applying that anomaly to Barnes. It makes no logical sense what you are doing here but, as I mentioned earlier, people project their concerns or beliefs of one player and cast it onto others.

There is an insanely high probability Barnes becomes a significantly better shooter than Ben Simmons.

"shoot better than Ben Simmons" is an extremely low bar and not exactly encouraging.
Kawhi has made everyone believe every non-shooter is going to turn into an elite shooter. How many non-shooters have actually turned into good shooters later in their career? Jason Kidd did it much later and even then he was more of a catch and shoot player.

Tons of bigs have transitioned from non shooters to elite shooters. Hell, Brook Lopez never even attempted them his first few years and now they are half his shots.

Lopez always had touch though, that was evident in his post scoring and high free throw %.

Barnes hasn’t shown touch from anywhere on the court, and touch is something that’s very hard to teach and it’s also a major factor in projecting someone’s ability to develop an outside shot.

His floater is awful, his mid range is awful, his free throws are awful and his mechanics are bad. I’ll be very surprised if he develops into an effective scorer in the half court at the next level

[mademan]

"shoot better than Ben Simmons" is an extremely low bar and not exactly encouraging.
Kawhi has made everyone believe every non-shooter is going to turn into an elite shooter. How many non-shooters have actually turned into good shooters later in their career? Jason Kidd did it much later and even then he was more of a catch and shoot player.

Tons of bigs have transitioned from non shooters to elite shooters. Hell, Brook Lopez never even attempted them his first few years and now they are half his shots.

Lopez always had touch though, that was evident in his post scoring and high free throw %.

Barnes hasn’t shown touch from anywhere on the court, and touch is something that’s very hard to teach and it’s also a major factor in projecting someone’s ability to develop an outside shot.

His floater is awful, his mid range is awful, his free throws are awful and his mechanics are bad. I’ll be very surprised if he develops into an effective scorer in the half court at the next level

He doesnt need to become an elite shooter, he just needs to become respectable, which we've seen many do. I dont think he's ever gonna be a half court star, but he could very well be a DPOY guy as a point forward with a decent shot who spaces the floor at an acceptable level. Thats a heck of a valuable player

[ciueli]

You're just echoing my previous point.

You're taking Ben Simmons, who is an anomaly, and applying that anomaly to Barnes. It makes no logical sense what you are doing here but, as I mentioned earlier, people project their concerns or beliefs of one player and cast it onto others.

There is an insanely high probability Barnes becomes a significantly better shooter than Ben Simmons.

I prefer to look at what a prospect can do now rather than guessing what they might be able to do in the future. 27% from 3 and 62% from the line screams non-shooter to me. If we’re comparing Barnes to Simmons, at least Simmons was a dominant rebounder in college, Barnes averaged 4 RPG in 25 MPG, that’s pretty bad for someone who is supposed to have length and athleticism as a main selling point.

Total rebound rate isn't very useful because it's so dependent on teammates. Barnes and Simmons are similar in size, but Simmons was by far the biggest player on LSU, while Barnes played on an FSU team that started one of the biggest frontcourts in the NCAA and didn't have a single rotation player smaller than 6'4" 210lbs.

Offensive rebound rate is a bit more accurate, because there players are mostly competing with opponents for rebounds, not competing with their own teammates. Barnes posted an offensive rebound rate of 7.4%, compared to 9.6% for Simmons. Both very good numbers (e.g. compared to 2.3% for Cade and 2.9% for Wagner), but Simmons just a touch better.

Scottie Barnes grabbed 35 offensive rebounds in his entire college career. That’s a microscopic sample size to be sure. But it brings up a bigger issue, why would Barnes join a team that specifically didn’t really need his size or wasn’t really the best place to showcase his abilities to their fullest? Just because they were a Florida team and he’s a Florida guy? If that’s the case Toronto should stay far away. Suggs is a guy who has lived his whole life in a cold weather state, seems like a much better fit for a team that has lost a number of HoF caliber players from warm weather states in free agency.

[clyde21]

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[Charm]

I prefer to look at what a prospect can do now rather than guessing what they might be able to do in the future. 27% from 3 and 62% from the line screams non-shooter to me. If we’re comparing Barnes to Simmons, at least Simmons was a dominant rebounder in college, Barnes averaged 4 RPG in 25 MPG, that’s pretty bad for someone who is supposed to have length and athleticism as a main selling point.

Total rebound rate isn't very useful because it's so dependent on teammates. Barnes and Simmons are similar in size, but Simmons was by far the biggest player on LSU, while Barnes played on an FSU team that started one of the biggest frontcourts in the NCAA and didn't have a single rotation player smaller than 6'4" 210lbs.

Offensive rebound rate is a bit more accurate, because there players are mostly competing with opponents for rebounds, not competing with their own teammates. Barnes posted an offensive rebound rate of 7.4%, compared to 9.6% for Simmons. Both very good numbers (e.g. compared to 2.3% for Cade and 2.9% for Wagner), but Simmons just a touch better.

Scottie Barnes grabbed 35 offensive rebounds in his entire college career. That’s a microscopic sample size to be sure. But it brings up a bigger issue, why would Barnes join a team that specifically didn’t really need his size or wasn’t really the best place to showcase his abilities to their fullest? Just because they were a Florida team and he’s a Florida guy? If that’s the case Toronto should stay far away. Suggs is a guy who has lived his whole life in a cold weather state, seems like a much better fit for a team that has lost a number of HoF caliber players from warm weather states in free agency.

I dunno...with the exception of the Ignite guys, I don't think many prospects this year (or any year) ended up in perfect showcase situations. Barnes brought playmaking and perimeter defense to FSU, which they needed, so he was at least a decent fit IMO.

Also, 35 offensive rebounds passes the sample-size eye test for me. If you're unsure about it, you're welcome to calculate the statistical uncertainty in his offensive rebound rate and report back

[BlazersBroncos]

I may be crazy, but I cant figure why Kuminga and Barnes are above Jalen Johnson other than potential character issues.

I feel that Johnson is a comparable if not better athlete, with a better looking jumper and wildly underrated vision and full court handle. IDK, just odd he isnt seen in the same grouping IMO.

[Marcus]

I may be crazy, but I cant figure why Kuminga and Barnes are above Jalen Johnson other than potential character issues.

I feel that Johnson is a comparable if not better athlete, with a better looking jumper and wildly underrated vision and full court handle. IDK, just odd he isnt seen in the same grouping IMO.

that's basically it.

[Blood Orange]

If the Raps select Barnes over Suggs, I'd be devastated.

Why?

Barnes is a decent shot away from being the best prospect in the draft. I think people overreact to players or situations and project them too much onto others.

Someone else has already mentioned it, but Suggs is a more NBA-ready product while Barnes is a very raw project. Suggs is light years ahead of Barnes in terms of offensive abilities and is equally a capable defender as Barnes though Barnes has better physical measurements than Suggs.

Suggs also mitigates 2 issues for the Raptors. Suggs can allow FVV to play his natural position at SG on the offensive end and he can carry out the responsibilities of being a primary ball handler for the team as well. Also Suggs can pick up the bigger guards on the defensive end of the court while consequently FVV can defend the smaller guy.

Suggs consistently makes winning plays and seems like a guy we can rely on down the stretch, especially with the departure of Kyle Lowry. He appears to be like one of the most clutch prospects of this draft and the Raptors need a guy like that on our team.

Furthermore, Barnes is kind of redundant with OG and Siakam, who occupy both of the forward spots. I don't see Barnes ever breaking into the rotation any time soon and I'm doubtful that the Raps actually deal Siakam this offseason since we've spent too much resources in investing into Siakam. Perhaps, if Siakam does in fact get dealt for another high pick in the draft or if we trade down and that in turn might propel us into selecting Barnes with that other pick but with the #4 pick, I think it'd be a major reach and don't think its going to happen.

Oh ya, last but not least, Barnes has a high bust factor while Suggs doesn't whatsoever.

[Jadoogar]

You're just echoing my previous point.

You're taking Ben Simmons, who is an anomaly, and applying that anomaly to Barnes. It makes no logical sense what you are doing here but, as I mentioned earlier, people project their concerns or beliefs of one player and cast it onto others.

There is an insanely high probability Barnes becomes a significantly better shooter than Ben Simmons.

"shoot better than Ben Simmons" is an extremely low bar and not exactly encouraging.
Kawhi has made everyone believe every non-shooter is going to turn into an elite shooter. How many non-shooters have actually turned into good shooters later in their career? Jason Kidd did it much later and even then he was more of a catch and shoot player.

Tons of bigs have transitioned from non shooters to elite shooters. Hell, Brook Lopez never even attempted them his first few years and now they are half his shots.

Brook Lopez didn't start taking threes until his 9th season and has mostly shot in the low 30s from three. He's fine but not exactly a "good shooter"

Point is, for each of these examples (of which there aren't many), there are tons that never learn how to shoot. Elfrid Payton, Stanley Johnson, Josh Jackson, Dennis Smith Jr, Kris Dunn, Emmanual Mudiay, Dante Exum, Derrick Williams were all top 10 picks based on athletic gifts who flamed out very quickly.

And i'm not including guys like Aaron Gordon that weren't busts but definitely didn't reach their potential because they never developed a good enough jumper.

[Nuntius]

Point is, for each of these examples (of which there aren't many), there are tons that never learn how to shoot. Elfrid Payton, Stanley Johnson, Josh Jackson, Dennis Smith Jr, Kris Dunn, Emmanual Mudiay, Dante Exum, Derrick Williams were all top 10 picks based on athletic gifts who flamed out very quickly.

And i'm not including guys like Aaron Gordon that weren't busts but definitely didn't reach their potential because they never developed a good enough jumper.

Barnes is a lot more comparable to Aaron Gordon than any of the other guys you mentioned on physical profile alone. Payton, DFS, Dunn, Mudiay and Exum are all guards and significantly smaller than Barnes. Barnes is a legit 6'8 in shoes and only two players from your example (Josh Jackson and Derrick Williams) are that size.

Barnes also has a monstrous 7'2.75" wingspan that only compares with bigs in this class. His wingspan is actually longer than Kai Jones, as an example.

[Yuri Vaultin]

So you guys are buying into the Barnes over Suggs hype? Personally, I'd be shocked if Toronto didn't take Lowry Part 2 with Lowry Part 1 leaving the station any moment now assuming that neither Mobley or Green drop. A Suggs/Van Vleet backcourt is a perfect match.

Yup, I'm not buying the smoke. But it'd be a totally Masai thing to do. Screw consensus and take the guy I think has the most potential. I have my preferences, but either way I'm on board with on front offices decisions.

Agreed. I implicitly trust the Raptors front office and player development team to pick and build the best player available.

[Big J]

"shoot better than Ben Simmons" is an extremely low bar and not exactly encouraging.
Kawhi has made everyone believe every non-shooter is going to turn into an elite shooter. How many non-shooters have actually turned into good shooters later in their career? Jason Kidd did it much later and even then he was more of a catch and shoot player.

Tons of bigs have transitioned from non shooters to elite shooters. Hell, Brook Lopez never even attempted them his first few years and now they are half his shots.

Lopez always had touch though, that was evident in his post scoring and high free throw %.

Barnes hasn’t shown touch from anywhere on the court, and touch is something that’s very hard to teach and it’s also a major factor in projecting someone’s ability to develop an outside shot.

His floater is awful, his mid range is awful, his free throws are awful and his mechanics are bad. I’ll be very surprised if he develops into an effective scorer in the half court at the next level

What about Scottie Pippen? He improved a decent amount as a shooter from his first few years. Barnes size & skills comp pretty closely to Pippen actually.

[Jadoogar]

Point is, for each of these examples (of which there aren't many), there are tons that never learn how to shoot. Elfrid Payton, Stanley Johnson, Josh Jackson, Dennis Smith Jr, Kris Dunn, Emmanual Mudiay, Dante Exum, Derrick Williams were all top 10 picks based on athletic gifts who flamed out very quickly.

And i'm not including guys like Aaron Gordon that weren't busts but definitely didn't reach their potential because they never developed a good enough jumper.

Barnes is a lot more comparable to Aaron Gordon than any of the other guys you mentioned on physical profile alone. Payton, DFS, Dunn, Mudiay and Exum are all guards and significantly smaller than Barnes. Barnes is a legit 6'8 in shoes and only two players from your example (Josh Jackson and Derrick Williams) are that size.

Barnes also has a monstrous 7'2.75" wingspan that only compares with bigs in this class. His wingspan is actually longer than Kai Jones, as an example.

I'm not denying his floor. He's going to be a good player based on defense and passing alone. But the ceiling is very dependent on the shot. I was just highlighting high picks that never developed that shot.

[Nuntius]

Point is, for each of these examples (of which there aren't many), there are tons that never learn how to shoot. Elfrid Payton, Stanley Johnson, Josh Jackson, Dennis Smith Jr, Kris Dunn, Emmanual Mudiay, Dante Exum, Derrick Williams were all top 10 picks based on athletic gifts who flamed out very quickly.

And i'm not including guys like Aaron Gordon that weren't busts but definitely didn't reach their potential because they never developed a good enough jumper.

Barnes is a lot more comparable to Aaron Gordon than any of the other guys you mentioned on physical profile alone. Payton, DFS, Dunn, Mudiay and Exum are all guards and significantly smaller than Barnes. Barnes is a legit 6'8 in shoes and only two players from your example (Josh Jackson and Derrick Williams) are that size.

Barnes also has a monstrous 7'2.75" wingspan that only compares with bigs in this class. His wingspan is actually longer than Kai Jones, as an example.

I'm not denying his floor. He's going to be a good player based on defense and passing alone. But the ceiling is very dependent on the shot. I was just highlighting high picks that never developed that shot.

I get what you're trying say. I just do not believe that you used the best examples, that's all

[Marcus]

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[Roger Murdock]

What do y’all think the Pelicans will do? I think they are wildcards here. With Lewis/NAW/Hayes all showing potential but none being good yet and all being question marks I could see them getting desperate and making a safe play like Mitchell or Kispert. I think it’s dumb to turn to a rookie when you need to win now.

Also looking at the board I think the BPA guys don’t seem like the best fits. Most of the top end talents will either be backups behind Zion or Ingram long term.

They need spacing and defense which makes me think Mitchell is most likely. I’d consider Garuba here I think but would hope for a 2 like Moody