Reed Sheppard and Rob Dillingham - 2024 NBA Draft

[FarBeyondDriven]

perfect game to separate those who watch the games and understand context, those that watch and can't, and those that just read box scores and how all three relate to evaluating prospects and projecting them forward as pros.

If you watched you would have noticed that 5 of Sheppard's threes were wide open. I mean WIDE open. One other was over the 5'11" PG and the other was off a step back against a backup that should never play a minute in a college game. Again, amazing shooter. But context is necessary. Because he'll never be guarded by defenders like these in the NBA and he'll never be as wide open almost none of this will translate. He's an amazing college player. But as we've seen with countless amazing college players throughout history, it doesn't always translate to the NBA.

Now as far as Dillingham goes, he's very similar to Knecht in that they're both absolute sieves on defense. But at least with Knecht he has adequate size and athleticism for his position. All the high degree of difficulty shots on drives you see from Dillingham won't happen in the NBA against better and longer athletes. Like with Sheppard, what you're seeing in college won't translate to the NBA. Sure, if you let Dillingham be a tank commander on a bad team he'd put up huge offensive numbers. And that might happen. And the annoying "I told you so" on here will commence. But it won't lead to being a winner and getting to the playoffs. But some don't really care about all that. Just look at Luka stans.

btw this is a fraudulent Tennessee team. I have no idea why they are ranked so high. It's basically Knecht and a bunch of 3 and 4 star guys around him. He's really carrying them and fooling the committee apparently.

It is a shame to resort to this every time a prospect you are down on has a big game. And the fact that you have to keep doing it should be a sign to you but it isn't.

weird, I don't remember you getting triggered when people are praising him after every big game.

[MemphisX]

perfect game to separate those who watch the games and understand context, those that watch and can't, and those that just read box scores and how all three relate to evaluating prospects and projecting them forward as pros.

If you watched you would have noticed that 5 of Sheppard's threes were wide open. I mean WIDE open. One other was over the 5'11" PG and the other was off a step back against a backup that should never play a minute in a college game. Again, amazing shooter. But context is necessary. Because he'll never be guarded by defenders like these in the NBA and he'll never be as wide open almost none of this will translate. He's an amazing college player. But as we've seen with countless amazing college players throughout history, it doesn't always translate to the NBA.

Now as far as Dillingham goes, he's very similar to Knecht in that they're both absolute sieves on defense. But at least with Knecht he has adequate size and athleticism for his position. All the high degree of difficulty shots on drives you see from Dillingham won't happen in the NBA against better and longer athletes. Like with Sheppard, what you're seeing in college won't translate to the NBA. Sure, if you let Dillingham be a tank commander on a bad team he'd put up huge offensive numbers. And that might happen. And the annoying "I told you so" on here will commence. But it won't lead to being a winner and getting to the playoffs. But some don't really care about all that. Just look at Luka stans.

btw this is a fraudulent Tennessee team. I have no idea why they are ranked so high. It's basically Knecht and a bunch of 3 and 4 star guys around him. He's really carrying them and fooling the committee apparently.

It is a shame to resort to this every time a prospect you are down on has a big game. And the fact that you have to keep doing it should be a sign to you but it isn't.

weird, I don't remember you getting triggered when people are praising him after every big game.

Shouldn't folks praise prospects, even ones they are not high on, after big games?

[MemphisX]

Watch on YouTube

[FarBeyondDriven]

It is a shame to resort to this every time a prospect you are down on has a big game. And the fact that you have to keep doing it should be a sign to you but it isn't.

weird, I don't remember you getting triggered when people are praising him after every big game.

Shouldn't folks praise prospects, even ones they are not high on, after big games?

shouldn't folks discuss prospects, their pros and cons/limitations and how it affects their draft status after every game good or bad? Without people getting selectively triggered. 9/10 posts in here are from people praising these two guys. Why get triggered when someone is offering a counter to that? Should we all agree about every prospect? How boring would that be?

[2weekswithpay]

perfect game to separate those who watch the games and understand context, those that watch and can't, and those that just read box scores and how all three relate to evaluating prospects and projecting them forward as pros.

If you watched you would have noticed that 5 of Sheppard's threes were wide open. I mean WIDE open. One other was over the 5'11" PG and the other was off a step back against a backup that should never play a minute in a college game. Again, amazing shooter. But context is necessary. Because he'll never be guarded by defenders like these in the NBA and he'll never be as wide open almost none of this will translate. He's an amazing college player. But as we've seen with countless amazing college players throughout history, it doesn't always translate to the NBA. People love to bring up Sheppard's blocks. Are you really impressed that he blocked a desperation heave during the last seconds from a 5'11" PG? Not all blocks are created equal. Almost none of his blocks will translate to the NBA

Now as far as Dillingham goes, he's very similar to Knecht in that they're both absolute sieves on defense. But at least with Knecht he has adequate size and athleticism for his position. All the high degree of difficulty shots on drives you see from Dillingham won't happen in the NBA against better and longer athletes. Like with Sheppard, what you're seeing in college won't translate to the NBA. Sure, if you let Dillingham be a tank commander on a bad team he'd put up huge offensive numbers. And that might happen. And the annoying "I told you so" on here will commence. But it won't lead to being a winner and getting to the playoffs. But some don't really care about all that. Just look at Luka stans.

btw this is a fraudulent Tennessee team. I have no idea why they are ranked so high. It's basically Knecht and a bunch of 3 and 4 star guys around him. He's really carrying them and fooling the committee apparently.

I don't see the issue here. For someone talking about context, from your description, you'd think Sheppard didn't have a single defender within 10ft when he shot the ball, no closeout or anything.

A pull up 3 when the defender goes under the screen.

A transition pull up 3 after getting the steal.

Punishing the help defender that slides over to cut off the drive.

Late shot clock situation against a scrambling defense.

These shots happen in just about every NBA game. Over 80% of all 3pt shots made are assisted on in the NBA. What do you think those shots look like?

This is the 3 Sam Hauser made 10 minutes ago when Bol Bol gets caught helping a bit too much. This is a better look than any shot Sheppard made tonight.

[EvanZ]

Watch on YouTube

If a JMAC doesn’t watch the game did it happen?

[Colbinii]

This is the player who is the most like Curry we have seen in the NCAA since Curry has come out.

[CptCrunch]

Reed isn't Curry as he is way better than Curry as a freshman. Reed is really an first team all defense guard with an elite shot.

His archtype is basically non-existant. He is a completely unique player. His best player comp from a couple of days ago is Evan Mobley at PG with an elite shot.

[clyde21]

Reed isn't Curry as he is way better than Curry as a freshman. Reed is really an first team all defense guard with an elite shot.

His archtype is basically non-existant. He is a completely unique player. His best player comp from a couple of days ago is Evan Mobley at PG with an elite shot.

lol, we talking about the same Steph Curry that averaged 22/5/3 his freshmen season at Davidson, compared to the 12/4/4 Reed's averaging today at Kentucky?

[FarBeyondDriven]

perfect game to separate those who watch the games and understand context, those that watch and can't, and those that just read box scores and how all three relate to evaluating prospects and projecting them forward as pros.

If you watched you would have noticed that 5 of Sheppard's threes were wide open. I mean WIDE open. One other was over the 5'11" PG and the other was off a step back against a backup that should never play a minute in a college game. Again, amazing shooter. But context is necessary. Because he'll never be guarded by defenders like these in the NBA and he'll never be as wide open almost none of this will translate. He's an amazing college player. But as we've seen with countless amazing college players throughout history, it doesn't always translate to the NBA. People love to bring up Sheppard's blocks. Are you really impressed that he blocked a desperation heave during the last seconds from a 5'11" PG? Not all blocks are created equal. Almost none of his blocks will translate to the NBA

Now as far as Dillingham goes, he's very similar to Knecht in that they're both absolute sieves on defense. But at least with Knecht he has adequate size and athleticism for his position. All the high degree of difficulty shots on drives you see from Dillingham won't happen in the NBA against better and longer athletes. Like with Sheppard, what you're seeing in college won't translate to the NBA. Sure, if you let Dillingham be a tank commander on a bad team he'd put up huge offensive numbers. And that might happen. And the annoying "I told you so" on here will commence. But it won't lead to being a winner and getting to the playoffs. But some don't really care about all that. Just look at Luka stans.

btw this is a fraudulent Tennessee team. I have no idea why they are ranked so high. It's basically Knecht and a bunch of 3 and 4 star guys around him. He's really carrying them and fooling the committee apparently.

I don't see the issue here. For someone talking about context, from your description, you'd think Sheppard didn't have a single defender within 10ft when he shot the ball, no closeout or anything.

A pull up 3 when the defender goes under the screen.

A transition pull up 3 after getting the steal.

Punishing the help defender that slides over to cut off the drive.

Late shot clock situation against a scrambling defense.

These shots happen in just about every NBA game. Over 80% of all 3pt shots made are assisted on in the NBA. What do you think those shots look like?

This is the 3 Sam Hauser made 10 minutes ago when Bol Bol gets caught helping a bit too much. This is a better look than any shot Sheppard made tonight.

Thank you for bringing up Hauser. He strengthens my argument because he's another great college player that can't translate to the NBA dude to his physical profile. While he has good size he has slow feet and below average athleticism. He can barely get on an NBA floor because he's such a defensive liability. While in college, like Sheppard, he started and produced at a high level because he wasn't facing NBA talent every game.

This is my issue with Sheppard. Great college player. Really fun to watch. But he has a very low chance of ever being a starter at the NBA level unless it's a tanking team or multiple injuries thrust him into the role for a bit. He has trouble defending on-ball now, imagine how bad it'll get in the NBA. And that will only get worse if his handle forces him into a strictly off-ball role because then he'd have to defend shooting guards.

I'd love to be wrong. But I see a very limited role for him as a bench point guard getting 15-20 mpg on a good team. TJ McConnell and Payton Pritchard type careers. I'd much rather take a chance on someone that has a realistic chance of starting on a good team in the lottery. Playoff teams needing depth would be a great landing spot and those teams pick in the 20s which is where he should go. But don't underestimate how dumb NBA front offices are so he could go in the lottery

[EvanZ]

This is a lot like Halliburton where some poeple see the talent but are too skeptical of the translation. That was definitely me. I’m not making that mistake twice.

[EvanZ]

This is the player who is the most like Curry we have seen in the NCAA since Curry has come out.

One thing that is very Curry like is his finishing around the rim. He’s really crafty with great touch.

[EvanZ]

perfect game to separate those who watch the games and understand context, those that watch and can't, and those that just read box scores and how all three relate to evaluating prospects and projecting them forward as pros.

If you watched you would have noticed that 5 of Sheppard's threes were wide open. I mean WIDE open. One other was over the 5'11" PG and the other was off a step back against a backup that should never play a minute in a college game. Again, amazing shooter. But context is necessary. Because he'll never be guarded by defenders like these in the NBA and he'll never be as wide open almost none of this will translate. He's an amazing college player. But as we've seen with countless amazing college players throughout history, it doesn't always translate to the NBA. People love to bring up Sheppard's blocks. Are you really impressed that he blocked a desperation heave during the last seconds from a 5'11" PG? Not all blocks are created equal. Almost none of his blocks will translate to the NBA

Now as far as Dillingham goes, he's very similar to Knecht in that they're both absolute sieves on defense. But at least with Knecht he has adequate size and athleticism for his position. All the high degree of difficulty shots on drives you see from Dillingham won't happen in the NBA against better and longer athletes. Like with Sheppard, what you're seeing in college won't translate to the NBA. Sure, if you let Dillingham be a tank commander on a bad team he'd put up huge offensive numbers. And that might happen. And the annoying "I told you so" on here will commence. But it won't lead to being a winner and getting to the playoffs. But some don't really care about all that. Just look at Luka stans.

btw this is a fraudulent Tennessee team. I have no idea why they are ranked so high. It's basically Knecht and a bunch of 3 and 4 star guys around him. He's really carrying them and fooling the committee apparently.

I don't see the issue here. For someone talking about context, from your description, you'd think Sheppard didn't have a single defender within 10ft when he shot the ball, no closeout or anything.

A pull up 3 when the defender goes under the screen.

A transition pull up 3 after getting the steal.

Punishing the help defender that slides over to cut off the drive.

Late shot clock situation against a scrambling defense.

These shots happen in just about every NBA game. Over 80% of all 3pt shots made are assisted on in the NBA. What do you think those shots look like?

This is the 3 Sam Hauser made 10 minutes ago when Bol Bol gets caught helping a bit too much. This is a better look than any shot Sheppard made tonight.

Thank you for bringing up Hauser. He strengthens my argument because he's another great college player that can't translate to the NBA dude to his physical profile. While he has good size he has slow feet and below average athleticism. He can barely get on an NBA floor because he's such a defensive liability. While in college, like Sheppard, he started and produced at a high level because he wasn't facing NBA talent every game.

This is my issue with Sheppard. Great college player. Really fun to watch. But he has a very low chance of ever being a starter at the NBA level unless it's a tanking team or multiple injuries thrust him into the role for a bit. He has trouble defending on-ball now, imagine how bad it'll get in the NBA. And that will only get worse if his handle forces him into a strictly off-ball role because then he'd have to defend shooting guards.

I'd love to be wrong. But I see a very limited role for him as a bench point guard getting 15-20 mpg on a good team. TJ McConnell and Payton Pritchard type careers. I'd much rather take a chance on someone that has a realistic chance of starting on a good team in the lottery. Playoff teams needing depth would be a great landing spot and those teams pick in the 20s which is where he should go. But don't underestimate how dumb NBA front offices are so he could go in the lottery

No comment but wanted to make sure I quote this zinger of a comparison in case the original post suddenly disappears in Sheppard’s rookie season.

[FarBeyondDriven]

I don't see the issue here. For someone talking about context, from your description, you'd think Sheppard didn't have a single defender within 10ft when he shot the ball, no closeout or anything.

A pull up 3 when the defender goes under the screen.

A transition pull up 3 after getting the steal.

Punishing the help defender that slides over to cut off the drive.

Late shot clock situation against a scrambling defense.

These shots happen in just about every NBA game. Over 80% of all 3pt shots made are assisted on in the NBA. What do you think those shots look like?

This is the 3 Sam Hauser made 10 minutes ago when Bol Bol gets caught helping a bit too much. This is a better look than any shot Sheppard made tonight.

Thank you for bringing up Hauser. He strengthens my argument because he's another great college player that can't translate to the NBA dude to his physical profile. While he has good size he has slow feet and below average athleticism. He can barely get on an NBA floor because he's such a defensive liability. While in college, like Sheppard, he started and produced at a high level because he wasn't facing NBA talent every game.

This is my issue with Sheppard. Great college player. Really fun to watch. But he has a very low chance of ever being a starter at the NBA level unless it's a tanking team or multiple injuries thrust him into the role for a bit. He has trouble defending on-ball now, imagine how bad it'll get in the NBA. And that will only get worse if his handle forces him into a strictly off-ball role because then he'd have to defend shooting guards.

I'd love to be wrong. But I see a very limited role for him as a bench point guard getting 15-20 mpg on a good team. TJ McConnell and Payton Pritchard type careers. I'd much rather take a chance on someone that has a realistic chance of starting on a good team in the lottery. Playoff teams needing depth would be a great landing spot and those teams pick in the 20s which is where he should go. But don't underestimate how dumb NBA front offices are so he could go in the lottery

No comment but wanted to make sure I quote this zinger of a comparison in case the original post suddenly disappears in Sheppard’s rookie season.

"no comment" but proceeds to comment. Classic Evan. edgy even. You do realize I didn't bring up the comparison right?

[LukaTheGOAT]

Sheppard has the per-minute stat profile of a generational guard. He's going to be good.

His handle is tight, and I can easily see him adding more moves. His feel for the game shows up on both ends, and I think speaks to him just reading/understanding the game more than most.

I actually like his burst, and believe in time he can take on a higher usage role.

[2weekswithpay]

perfect game to separate those who watch the games and understand context, those that watch and can't, and those that just read box scores and how all three relate to evaluating prospects and projecting them forward as pros.

If you watched you would have noticed that 5 of Sheppard's threes were wide open. I mean WIDE open. One other was over the 5'11" PG and the other was off a step back against a backup that should never play a minute in a college game. Again, amazing shooter. But context is necessary. Because he'll never be guarded by defenders like these in the NBA and he'll never be as wide open almost none of this will translate. He's an amazing college player. But as we've seen with countless amazing college players throughout history, it doesn't always translate to the NBA. People love to bring up Sheppard's blocks. Are you really impressed that he blocked a desperation heave during the last seconds from a 5'11" PG? Not all blocks are created equal. Almost none of his blocks will translate to the NBA

Now as far as Dillingham goes, he's very similar to Knecht in that they're both absolute sieves on defense. But at least with Knecht he has adequate size and athleticism for his position. All the high degree of difficulty shots on drives you see from Dillingham won't happen in the NBA against better and longer athletes. Like with Sheppard, what you're seeing in college won't translate to the NBA. Sure, if you let Dillingham be a tank commander on a bad team he'd put up huge offensive numbers. And that might happen. And the annoying "I told you so" on here will commence. But it won't lead to being a winner and getting to the playoffs. But some don't really care about all that. Just look at Luka stans.

btw this is a fraudulent Tennessee team. I have no idea why they are ranked so high. It's basically Knecht and a bunch of 3 and 4 star guys around him. He's really carrying them and fooling the committee apparently.

I don't see the issue here. For someone talking about context, from your description, you'd think Sheppard didn't have a single defender within 10ft when he shot the ball, no closeout or anything.

A pull up 3 when the defender goes under the screen.

A transition pull up 3 after getting the steal.

Punishing the help defender that slides over to cut off the drive.

Late shot clock situation against a scrambling defense.

These shots happen in just about every NBA game. Over 80% of all 3pt shots made are assisted on in the NBA. What do you think those shots look like?

This is the 3 Sam Hauser made 10 minutes ago when Bol Bol gets caught helping a bit too much. This is a better look than any shot Sheppard made tonight.

Thank you for bringing up Hauser. He strengthens my argument because he's another great college player that can't translate to the NBA dude to his physical profile. While he has good size he has slow feet and below average athleticism. He can barely get on an NBA floor because he's such a defensive liability. While in college, like Sheppard, he started and produced at a high level because he wasn't facing NBA talent every game.

This is my issue with Sheppard. Great college player. Really fun to watch. But he has a very low chance of ever being a starter at the NBA level unless it's a tanking team or multiple injuries thrust him into the role for a bit. He has trouble defending on-ball now, imagine how bad it'll get in the NBA. And that will only get worse if his handle forces him into a strictly off-ball role because then he'd have to defend shooting guards.

I'd love to be wrong. But I see a very limited role for him as a bench point guard getting 15-20 mpg on a good team. TJ McConnell and Payton Pritchard type careers. I'd much rather take a chance on someone that has a realistic chance of starting on a good team in the lottery. Playoff teams needing depth would be a great landing spot and those teams pick in the 20s which is where he should go. But don't underestimate how dumb NBA front offices are so he could go in the lottery

???. Sam Hauser consistently plays for the best team in the NBA. What do you mean he can barely get on the floor? Buddy Hield has started 400 NBA games so far in his career and he also has slow feet and below-average athleticism.

Most guards aren't great on-ball defenders and almost all of them require help defending. The exceptions are the top tier guards in the NBA like Holiday or Caruso. Unless Sheppard's defense is bottom-tier then I don't see the issue. Guard defense isn't that important, being able to help, communicate, and make smart decisions is more than enough for most teams. Very few teams need strong defensive guards to be successful.

[FarBeyondDriven]

I don't see the issue here. For someone talking about context, from your description, you'd think Sheppard didn't have a single defender within 10ft when he shot the ball, no closeout or anything.

A pull up 3 when the defender goes under the screen.

A transition pull up 3 after getting the steal.

Punishing the help defender that slides over to cut off the drive.

Late shot clock situation against a scrambling defense.

These shots happen in just about every NBA game. Over 80% of all 3pt shots made are assisted on in the NBA. What do you think those shots look like?

This is the 3 Sam Hauser made 10 minutes ago when Bol Bol gets caught helping a bit too much. This is a better look than any shot Sheppard made tonight.

Thank you for bringing up Hauser. He strengthens my argument because he's another great college player that can't translate to the NBA dude to his physical profile. While he has good size he has slow feet and below average athleticism. He can barely get on an NBA floor because he's such a defensive liability. While in college, like Sheppard, he started and produced at a high level because he wasn't facing NBA talent every game.

This is my issue with Sheppard. Great college player. Really fun to watch. But he has a very low chance of ever being a starter at the NBA level unless it's a tanking team or multiple injuries thrust him into the role for a bit. He has trouble defending on-ball now, imagine how bad it'll get in the NBA. And that will only get worse if his handle forces him into a strictly off-ball role because then he'd have to defend shooting guards.

I'd love to be wrong. But I see a very limited role for him as a bench point guard getting 15-20 mpg on a good team. TJ McConnell and Payton Pritchard type careers. I'd much rather take a chance on someone that has a realistic chance of starting on a good team in the lottery. Playoff teams needing depth would be a great landing spot and those teams pick in the 20s which is where he should go. But don't underestimate how dumb NBA front offices are so he could go in the lottery

???. Sam Hauser consistently plays for the best team in the NBA. What do you mean he can barely get on the floor? Buddy Hield has started 400 NBA games so far in his career and he also has slow feet and below-average athleticism.

Most guards aren't great on-ball defenders and almost all of them require help defending. The exceptions are the top tier guards in the NBA like Holiday or Caruso. Unless Sheppard's defense is bottom-tier then I don't see the issue. Guard defense isn't that important, being able to help, communicate, and make smart decisions is more than enough for most teams. Very few teams need strong defensive guards to be successful.

His spot starts skew his minutes. As does the fact that they're actively trying to keep their rotation guys healthy and better rested for the playoffs. He's basically a 15-18 mpg off the bench guy. It's the same reason Pritchard's minutes are similarly up to 20 mpg. Come playoff time that will shrink to almost non-existent.

Buddy Hield and his ilk shouldn't start. That's my point. He actively hurts every team he's ever been on with his defense and lack of secondary playmaking. I'd say go look up his playoff numbers but he's never played in them and he's a major reason for that. Just because a player CAN start and can put up numbers based on whatever situation he's in does not mean he'll deserve to or amount to a winning player.

Sheppard's on-ball defense could very well be bottom tier in the NBA. He can't guard in college. What do you think will happen in the pros? Pritchard is an excellent point guard who can actually defend (despite the narrative) and he can't even start. I'll get a better sense of it once I see him at the combine. That will speak volumes.

[Johnny Firpo]

We are getting closer and closer to Sheppard being the Nr. 1 pick. It's definitely more realistic by the day.

[UnbelievablyRAW]

perfect game to separate those who watch the games and understand context, those that watch and can't, and those that just read box scores and how all three relate to evaluating prospects and projecting them forward as pros.

If you watched you would have noticed that 5 of Sheppard's threes were wide open. I mean WIDE open. One other was over the 5'11" PG and the other was off a step back against a backup that should never play a minute in a college game. Again, amazing shooter. But context is necessary. Because he'll never be guarded by defenders like these in the NBA and he'll never be as wide open almost none of this will translate. He's an amazing college player. But as we've seen with countless amazing college players throughout history, it doesn't always translate to the NBA. People love to bring up Sheppard's blocks. Are you really impressed that he blocked a desperation heave during the last seconds from a 5'11" PG? Not all blocks are created equal. Almost none of his blocks will translate to the NBA

Now as far as Dillingham goes, he's very similar to Knecht in that they're both absolute sieves on defense. But at least with Knecht he has adequate size and athleticism for his position. All the high degree of difficulty shots on drives you see from Dillingham won't happen in the NBA against better and longer athletes. Like with Sheppard, what you're seeing in college won't translate to the NBA. Sure, if you let Dillingham be a tank commander on a bad team he'd put up huge offensive numbers. And that might happen. And the annoying "I told you so" on here will commence. But it won't lead to being a winner and getting to the playoffs. But some don't really care about all that. Just look at Luka stans.

btw this is a fraudulent Tennessee team. I have no idea why they are ranked so high. It's basically Knecht and a bunch of 3 and 4 star guys around him. He's really carrying them and fooling the committee apparently.

I don't see the issue here. For someone talking about context, from your description, you'd think Sheppard didn't have a single defender within 10ft when he shot the ball, no closeout or anything.

A pull up 3 when the defender goes under the screen.

A transition pull up 3 after getting the steal.

Punishing the help defender that slides over to cut off the drive.

Late shot clock situation against a scrambling defense.

These shots happen in just about every NBA game. Over 80% of all 3pt shots made are assisted on in the NBA. What do you think those shots look like?

This is the 3 Sam Hauser made 10 minutes ago when Bol Bol gets caught helping a bit too much. This is a better look than any shot Sheppard made tonight.

I don't think more than 2 guys on the Raptors can make the 3's Reed hit in that clip

[OriAr]

We are getting closer and closer to Sheppard being the Nr. 1 pick. It's definitely more realistic by the day.

Depends on whose team picks at #1 IMO.
I don't see Detroit or Charlotte picking him, but I definitely think Spurs take him if they win the lottery again.
Wizards probably take Sarr, Portland is ?????
Any GM who takes Topic over Sheppard should be fired on the spot; I'd take Sheppard over Dillingham as well but at least that's still somewhat arguable.