2024 NBA Draft Thread

[FarBeyondDriven]

I was watching a few games, the Kentucky and Duke games in particular and it struck me as odd that so many top prospects that play the same position chose to go these schools. You have three guards, all who could start on almost every other team on Kentucky in Wagner, Dillingham and Sheppard, actively hurting their draft prospects by going to the same school. It's even worse at Duke because they had returning starters in Proctor and Roach yet McCain and Foster still decided to go there knowing they were returning. What is going on with this generation of players? Do they lack the killer instinct? Or is it more about NIL? Are they fine cashing in NIL money at the expense of their draft stock? As it stands now, for both teams, at best they're going to individually have their moments but they'll have to take turns whereas if they were starting elsewhere they could be the man and not have to sacrifice minutes and touches. These are all first round talents that are actively hurting their draft stock. It's not just there though and not just with guards. Mara saw how poorly Bona was utilized last season and saw he was returning and thought "yeah, I want that" and now he's getting scant minutes and production when he should be dominating somewhere based on his immense talent. Stewart and TJ Power, both forwards at Duke, barely get on the floor. They're almost certainly going to have to return next year and should have seen that was going to happen when Mitchell and Fillipowski decided to return. Elmarko Jackson chose Kansas and his minutes and touches are being affected because of Harris who returned . I understand wanting to go to these major programs and hook up with your AAU buddies that play other positions. But I'm baffled why guys that play the same position that will eat into each others minutes want to play together. Or choosing a school you're blocked by returning players at and even if you're the superior NBA prospect you'll still get less minutes and touches because there's only one ball and so many minutes to go around. Maybe going the G-League Ignite is the smarter move? Of all the top freshmen only Bradshaw, Castle, Stojakovic, Walter, Edwards, Mgbako (leaving Duke) and Collier chose wisely to maximize their chances of showcasing for scouts imo.

[FarBeyondDriven]

I know he's much older and just bolsters the already impressive returning class but I'm really impressed with Dalton Knecht. He moves and plays so much like Mikal Bridges. I love seeing 3 and 4 star guys (Kansas is famous for this) work their butts off, improve and succeed when the opportunity presents itself. He's proving last season wasn't a fluke, though his 3 pt numbers are down. I could see him sneaking into the late 1st

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[Hal14]

I was watching a few games, the Kentucky and Duke games in particular and it struck me as odd that so many top prospects that play the same position chose to go these schools. You have three guards, all who could start on almost every other team on Kentucky in Wagner, Dillingham and Sheppard, actively hurting their draft prospects by going to the same school. It's even worse at Duke because they had returning starters in Proctor and Roach yet McCain and Foster still decided to go there knowing they were returning. What is going on with this generation of players?

Yeah, it's weird. Guess Calipari and Sheyer are that good at recruiting and both of those schools have such a reputation that the players go there anyways, even if it's not in their best interest.

TJ Power could have gone somewhere else where he can actually play, instead of riding the bench for Duke.

With that being said, Sheppard's dad played at Kentucky (and won a national title there) so he was probably gonna end up there anyways..

[Norm2953]

I was watching a few games, the Kentucky and Duke games in particular and it struck me as odd that so many top prospects that play the same position chose to go these schools. You have three guards, all who could start on almost every other team on Kentucky in Wagner, Dillingham and Sheppard, actively hurting their draft prospects by going to the same school. It's even worse at Duke because they had returning starters in Proctor and Roach yet McCain and Foster still decided to go there knowing they were returning. What is going on with this generation of players?

Yeah, it's weird. Guess Calipari and Sheyer are that good at recruiting and both of those schools have such a reputation that the players go there anyways, even if it's not in their best interest.

TJ Power could have gone somewhere else where he can actually play, instead of riding the bench for Duke.

With that being said, Sheppard's dad played at Kentucky (and won a national title there) so he was probably gonna end up there anyways..

Massive NIL programs can buy most guys to go their schools for a year

[clyde21]

makes no sense, at least Mgbako had the brains to leave that nonsense at Duke

[Chuck Everett]

...

Appreciate the insights, but please use a paragraph break when writing some of your longer posts. It's hard to read when it's a wall of text.

[clyde21]

makes no sense, at least Mgbako had the brains to leave that nonsense at Duke

i hope Wagner doesn't get buried too, behind Reeves, Dillingham and now apparently sharing minutes with Sheppard. i really don't why all these dudes go to the same schools. maybe the NIL paycheck is that real because it makes very little sense basketball wise.

[Duke4life831]

Ya even as a Duke fan I don’t really understand it. TJ Power starts on most power conference teams this year, same goes for Sean Stewart. And in the 2 real games so far this season, Stewart barely saw the court both games and TJ got DNPs.

A comp for Power is Stojakovic who both have very similar games and ranked near each other (TJ ranked ahead of him on most sites). Andrej is starting for Stanford and putting up 5 3s per game.

Not the smartest decision if your goal is to get to the league as soon as you can.

[Chi town]

Topic is my top pick right now. Kid has it.

[clyde21]

love me some Trey Alexander, wanted him to leave school last draft but if the playmaking really took this big of a jump take that back. i'll keep talking about him as one of the more underrated guys.

[Chi town]

Carlton Carrington.

Reminds me of Maxey.

[FarBeyondDriven]

...

Appreciate the insights, but please use a paragraph break when writing some of your longer posts. It's hard to read when it's a wall of text.

my bad

[Saints14]

I don’t really understand why top guards go to Kentucky anymore. How many millions of dollars have these guys lost on their rookie contracts since the Fox/Monk draft?

2018: Shai - steal in the late lotto
2019: Herro - outperformed his draft slot in the late lotto
2020: Maxey AND Quickley both drafted in the 20s
2022: Tyty falls to the late first (that’s looking appropriate though)
2023: Cason Wallace off to a good start

[crows2]

I don’t really understand why top guards go to Kentucky anymore. How many millions of dollars have these guys lost on their rookie contracts since the Fox/Monk draft?

2018: Shai - steal in the late lotto
2019: Herro - outperformed his draft slot in the late lotto
2020: Maxey AND Quickley both drafted in the 20s
2022: Tyty falls to the late first (that’s looking appropriate though)
2023: Cason Wallace off to a good start

Because players earn a lot more from subsequent NBA contracts than a rookie contract. If you’re a guard and you see so many Kentucky guards blowing up in the NBA, you probably want to do your 1-2 years of development at Kentucky like they did.

I think the huge influx of top level talent going to Duke at the moment is more stupid. They have no idea whether Scheyer is a good coach/developer, and are yet to see how his players turn out in the NBA. Most of them (other than Flagg) are likely lowering their draft stock with no evidence that it will help them with their development in the long term. The NIL money at Duke is obviously insane.

[Chuck Everett]

I don’t really understand why top guards go to Kentucky anymore. How many millions of dollars have these guys lost on their rookie contracts since the Fox/Monk draft?

2018: Shai - steal in the late lotto
2019: Herro - outperformed his draft slot in the late lotto
2020: Maxey AND Quickley both drafted in the 20s
2022: Tyty falls to the late first (that’s looking appropriate though)
2023: Cason Wallace off to a good start

When you look at the Kentucky guards in the NBA who are performing well, how is this a knock on Kentucky? No offense.

I mean: Jamal Murray, Fox, Maxey, Quickley, Monk, Herro, Shai

All these guys are either super rich or about to be. The failures are Hami Diallo and TyTy, but Cal's track record with guards since arriving at Kentucky beginning with Wall and Bledsoe is incredible.

[clyde21]

I don’t really understand why top guards go to Kentucky anymore. How many millions of dollars have these guys lost on their rookie contracts since the Fox/Monk draft?

2018: Shai - steal in the late lotto
2019: Herro - outperformed his draft slot in the late lotto
2020: Maxey AND Quickley both drafted in the 20s
2022: Tyty falls to the late first (that’s looking appropriate though)
2023: Cason Wallace off to a good start

When you look at the Kentucky guards in the NBA who are performing well, how is this a knock on Kentucky? No offense.

I mean: Jamal Murray, Fox, Maxey, Quickley, Monk, Herro, Shai

All these guys are either super rich or about to be. The failures are Hami Diallo and TyTy, but Cal's track record with guards since arriving at Kentucky beginning with Wall and Bledsoe is incredible.

while I agree - is there evidence that they wouldn't be this good if they didn't go to UK for a season? like would Maxey today be a worse player if he went to say Auburn instead of Kentucky?

[Chuck Everett]

I don’t really understand why top guards go to Kentucky anymore. How many millions of dollars have these guys lost on their rookie contracts since the Fox/Monk draft?

2018: Shai - steal in the late lotto
2019: Herro - outperformed his draft slot in the late lotto
2020: Maxey AND Quickley both drafted in the 20s
2022: Tyty falls to the late first (that’s looking appropriate though)
2023: Cason Wallace off to a good start

When you look at the Kentucky guards in the NBA who are performing well, how is this a knock on Kentucky? No offense.

I mean: Jamal Murray, Fox, Maxey, Quickley, Monk, Herro, Shai

All these guys are either super rich or about to be. The failures are Hami Diallo and TyTy, but Cal's track record with guards since arriving at Kentucky beginning with Wall and Bledsoe is incredible.

while I agree - is there evidence that they wouldn't be this good if they didn't go to UK for a season? like would Maxey today be a worse player if he went to say Auburn instead of Kentucky?

That's a great question. After seeing Cason Wallace this year and how steady he has been as a rookie, I am not sure I have an answer for you. Some of this stuff becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy, I guess. Here's what we know, guys like Shai and Devin Booker became all-NBA players. When they were in HS, it was hard to perceive that would be their future. Even though both guys went late lotto, I doubt they regret going to Kentucky.

You can be underrated nationally and yet, if you can ball, Kentucky has proven it will increase your Q rating to NBA scouts. Even a scrub like Kevin Knox got drafted in the lotto (don't ask me why. I never liked his game).

[SeattleJazzFan]

I don’t really understand why top guards go to Kentucky anymore. How many millions of dollars have these guys lost on their rookie contracts since the Fox/Monk draft?

2018: Shai - steal in the late lotto
2019: Herro - outperformed his draft slot in the late lotto
2020: Maxey AND Quickley both drafted in the 20s
2022: Tyty falls to the late first (that’s looking appropriate though)
2023: Cason Wallace off to a good start

When you look at the Kentucky guards in the NBA who are performing well, how is this a knock on Kentucky? No offense.

I mean: Jamal Murray, Fox, Maxey, Quickley, Monk, Herro, Shai

All these guys are either super rich or about to be. The failures are Hami Diallo and TyTy, but Cal's track record with guards since arriving at Kentucky beginning with Wall and Bledsoe is incredible.

i might say his track record with recruiting guards has been incredible, but most of those guys were underwhelming at kentucky in comparison to what they ultimately showed in the NBA, like he somehow took incredible guards and made them look mediocre while they were playing for him.

the rule of thumb: if there is a dynamic guard playing for Cal, disregard what he did while at UK and take a chance on him earlier in the draft than where he's mocked - chances are he's better than what we saw at kentucky.

[Jamaaliver]

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[Chuck Everett]

I don’t really understand why top guards go to Kentucky anymore. How many millions of dollars have these guys lost on their rookie contracts since the Fox/Monk draft?

2018: Shai - steal in the late lotto
2019: Herro - outperformed his draft slot in the late lotto
2020: Maxey AND Quickley both drafted in the 20s
2022: Tyty falls to the late first (that’s looking appropriate though)
2023: Cason Wallace off to a good start

When you look at the Kentucky guards in the NBA who are performing well, how is this a knock on Kentucky? No offense.

I mean: Jamal Murray, Fox, Maxey, Quickley, Monk, Herro, Shai

All these guys are either super rich or about to be. The failures are Hami Diallo and TyTy, but Cal's track record with guards since arriving at Kentucky beginning with Wall and Bledsoe is incredible.

i might say his track record with recruiting guards has been incredible, but most of those guys were underwhelming at kentucky in comparison to what they ultimately showed in the NBA, like he somehow took incredible guards and made them look mediocre while they were playing for him.

the rule of thumb: if there is a dynamic guard playing for Cal, disregard what he did while at UK and take a chance on him earlier in the draft than where he's mocked - chances are he's better than what we saw at kentucky.

Could also be a case of iron sharpening iron and there only being one ball. The numbers are suppressed simply because they are forced to play with other great guards typically.