The Moose wrote:Charm wrote:The Moose wrote:
So the theory here is like...Cade often passed the ball to bad 3-point shooters, who the defense was intentionally playing off of, and they missed. But if we give Cade credit for "creating" those wide-open 3's (a very generous interpretation of what happened), then he gets a whole 1 extra assist per game. So if, hypothetically, all of Cade's teammates were good shooters, but the defense still defended (some of) them as if they were bad shooters, then Cade might have baaaarely eked out a positive assist:TO ratio.
I appreciate the attempt they're making to quantify this effect, but the methodology just doesn't make a whole lot of sense. Creating an open 3 for your best 3-point shooting teammate is much more difficult, and much more valuable, than creating an open 3 for your worst 3-point shooting teammate. But their methodology treats these two outcomes equally.
Anyway, I guess we'll find out soon enough how good Cade's passing really is in the NBA. Maybe I'll be eating crow, or maybe a whole lot of other people will be eating crow.
It’s more of a response to the notion that Cade’s team mates didn’t miss an unusual amount of make able shots from his passes. Plenty of posts have argued against the videos of Cade’s potential assists and basically have asserted that you could make a similar video of any playmaking prospect if you took the time.
It’s not to say that Cade is some passing savant like Luka, I dont think will continue to be a point guard as he transitions to the NBA, but it shows the stats back up most people’s eye tests; that his assist totals and his negative ast/to ratio aren’t a proper indication of his passing ability.
Visualised on a chart, it’s fairly obvious Cade has the highest variance in his numbers
here is the explanation for how the stat is calculated for anyone interested
I just don't agree with the idea of looking only at the quality of the shot, and not at the shooter. Cade doesn't really deserve credit for setting up Keylan Boone 3's. Mobley doesn't deserve credit for setting up his brother's 3's. Barnes doesn't deserve credit for setting up Raiquan Gray 3's. Setting up a shot that the defense is generally happy to concede isn't typically a good idea, and the passer doesn't really deserve credit for it if the shot goes in, let alone if the shot misses.
The point isn't to create looks for your teammates that would be high-percentage shots for a hypothetical league-average player. The point is to create high-percentage shots for your actual teammates, who generally will be much better or much worse than league average on different shot types.
If you're mainly passing to your teammates in places where they're below-average shotmakers, then you're playing right into the hands of the defense, and I don't think you deserve extra credit for doing that.
