Cade Cunningham

Draft talk all year round

Moderators: Duke4life831, Marcus

Charm
Junior
Posts: 393
And1: 257
Joined: May 13, 2021

Re: Cade Cunningham 

Post#541 » by Charm » Mon Jul 26, 2021 5:21 pm

The Moose wrote:
Charm wrote:
The Moose wrote:
Read on Twitter


So the theory here is like...Cade often passed the ball to bad 3-point shooters, who the defense was intentionally playing off of, and they missed. But if we give Cade credit for "creating" those wide-open 3's (a very generous interpretation of what happened), then he gets a whole 1 extra assist per game. So if, hypothetically, all of Cade's teammates were good shooters, but the defense still defended (some of) them as if they were bad shooters, then Cade might have baaaarely eked out a positive assist:TO ratio.

I appreciate the attempt they're making to quantify this effect, but the methodology just doesn't make a whole lot of sense. Creating an open 3 for your best 3-point shooting teammate is much more difficult, and much more valuable, than creating an open 3 for your worst 3-point shooting teammate. But their methodology treats these two outcomes equally.

Anyway, I guess we'll find out soon enough how good Cade's passing really is in the NBA. Maybe I'll be eating crow, or maybe a whole lot of other people will be eating crow.


It’s more of a response to the notion that Cade’s team mates didn’t miss an unusual amount of make able shots from his passes. Plenty of posts have argued against the videos of Cade’s potential assists and basically have asserted that you could make a similar video of any playmaking prospect if you took the time.

It’s not to say that Cade is some passing savant like Luka, I dont think will continue to be a point guard as he transitions to the NBA, but it shows the stats back up most people’s eye tests; that his assist totals and his negative ast/to ratio aren’t a proper indication of his passing ability.


Image

Visualised on a chart, it’s fairly obvious Cade has the highest variance in his numbers

here is the explanation for how the stat is calculated for anyone interested

Image


I just don't agree with the idea of looking only at the quality of the shot, and not at the shooter. Cade doesn't really deserve credit for setting up Keylan Boone 3's. Mobley doesn't deserve credit for setting up his brother's 3's. Barnes doesn't deserve credit for setting up Raiquan Gray 3's. Setting up a shot that the defense is generally happy to concede isn't typically a good idea, and the passer doesn't really deserve credit for it if the shot goes in, let alone if the shot misses.

The point isn't to create looks for your teammates that would be high-percentage shots for a hypothetical league-average player. The point is to create high-percentage shots for your actual teammates, who generally will be much better or much worse than league average on different shot types.

If you're mainly passing to your teammates in places where they're below-average shotmakers, then you're playing right into the hands of the defense, and I don't think you deserve extra credit for doing that.
Marcus
Forum Mod
Forum Mod
Posts: 10,315
And1: 5,173
Joined: Mar 03, 2014

Re: Cade Cunningham 

Post#542 » by Marcus » Mon Jul 26, 2021 5:21 pm

clyde21 wrote:yea, i do think Cade passing chops are overall better than his A/TO ratio shows and have been getting underrated here, but u can do that exercise with almost any college PG, useless stat unless ur doing it across the board and doing a comp.


Can't wait till Thursday. We're well past the point of just letting this play out. Just wanna see where he lands and how he translates so we can move this back and forth to the rookie thread and watch the fanbases flip flop game to game.
Watch More Basketball

Sometimes silence is the best thing you can contribute to a conversation

after what he did to Moses Moody's name, I got DJ K. Perk in a Verzuz battle against ANYBODY
User avatar
The Moose
General Manager
Posts: 9,291
And1: 5,259
Joined: Apr 18, 2012
Location: Australia
 

Re: Cade Cunningham 

Post#543 » by The Moose » Mon Jul 26, 2021 5:27 pm

Charm wrote:
The Moose wrote:
Charm wrote:
So the theory here is like...Cade often passed the ball to bad 3-point shooters, who the defense was intentionally playing off of, and they missed. But if we give Cade credit for "creating" those wide-open 3's (a very generous interpretation of what happened), then he gets a whole 1 extra assist per game. So if, hypothetically, all of Cade's teammates were good shooters, but the defense still defended (some of) them as if they were bad shooters, then Cade might have baaaarely eked out a positive assist:TO ratio.

I appreciate the attempt they're making to quantify this effect, but the methodology just doesn't make a whole lot of sense. Creating an open 3 for your best 3-point shooting teammate is much more difficult, and much more valuable, than creating an open 3 for your worst 3-point shooting teammate. But their methodology treats these two outcomes equally.

Anyway, I guess we'll find out soon enough how good Cade's passing really is in the NBA. Maybe I'll be eating crow, or maybe a whole lot of other people will be eating crow.


It’s more of a response to the notion that Cade’s team mates didn’t miss an unusual amount of make able shots from his passes. Plenty of posts have argued against the videos of Cade’s potential assists and basically have asserted that you could make a similar video of any playmaking prospect if you took the time.

It’s not to say that Cade is some passing savant like Luka, I dont think will continue to be a point guard as he transitions to the NBA, but it shows the stats back up most people’s eye tests; that his assist totals and his negative ast/to ratio aren’t a proper indication of his passing ability.


Image

Visualised on a chart, it’s fairly obvious Cade has the highest variance in his numbers

here is the explanation for how the stat is calculated for anyone interested

Image


I just don't agree with the idea of looking only at the quality of the shot, and not at the shooter. Cade doesn't really deserve credit for setting up Keylan Boone 3's. Mobley doesn't deserve credit for setting up his brother's 3's. Barnes doesn't deserve credit for setting up Raiquan Gray 3's. Setting up a shot that the defense is generally happy to concede isn't typically a good idea, and the passer doesn't really deserve credit for it if the shot goes in, let alone if the shot misses.

The point isn't to create looks for your teammates that would be high-percentage shots for a hypothetical league-average player. The point is to create high-percentage shots for your actual teammates, who generally will be much better or much worse than league average on different shot types.

If you're mainly passing to your teammates in places where they're below-average shotmakers, then you're playing right into the hands of the defense, and I don't think you deserve extra credit for doing that.


I agree, but to my understanding the quality of the shot maker is taken into account with this metric when it is determining the likelihood of the shot going in off the pass.

I could be wrong , but that’s my interpretation from reading how the shot quality is determined
Image
User avatar
clyde21
RealGM
Posts: 63,559
And1: 69,984
Joined: Aug 20, 2014
     

Re: Cade Cunningham 

Post#544 » by clyde21 » Mon Jul 26, 2021 5:31 pm

Marcus wrote:
clyde21 wrote:yea, i do think Cade passing chops are overall better than his A/TO ratio shows and have been getting underrated here, but u can do that exercise with almost any college PG, useless stat unless ur doing it across the board and doing a comp.


Can't wait till Thursday. We're well past the point of just letting this play out. Just wanna see where he lands and how he translates so we can move this back and forth to the rookie thread and watch the fanbases flip flop game to game.


then onto 22 class :lol:
جُنْد فِلَسْطِيْن
Marcus
Forum Mod
Forum Mod
Posts: 10,315
And1: 5,173
Joined: Mar 03, 2014

Re: Cade Cunningham 

Post#545 » by Marcus » Mon Jul 26, 2021 5:37 pm

clyde21 wrote:
Marcus wrote:
clyde21 wrote:yea, i do think Cade passing chops are overall better than his A/TO ratio shows and have been getting underrated here, but u can do that exercise with almost any college PG, useless stat unless ur doing it across the board and doing a comp.


Can't wait till Thursday. We're well past the point of just letting this play out. Just wanna see where he lands and how he translates so we can move this back and forth to the rookie thread and watch the fanbases flip flop game to game.


then onto 22 class :lol:


Yeah Chet gonna get killed lol
Watch More Basketball

Sometimes silence is the best thing you can contribute to a conversation

after what he did to Moses Moody's name, I got DJ K. Perk in a Verzuz battle against ANYBODY
Charm
Junior
Posts: 393
And1: 257
Joined: May 13, 2021

Re: Cade Cunningham 

Post#546 » by Charm » Mon Jul 26, 2021 6:00 pm

The Moose wrote:
Charm wrote:
The Moose wrote:
It’s more of a response to the notion that Cade’s team mates didn’t miss an unusual amount of make able shots from his passes. Plenty of posts have argued against the videos of Cade’s potential assists and basically have asserted that you could make a similar video of any playmaking prospect if you took the time.

It’s not to say that Cade is some passing savant like Luka, I dont think will continue to be a point guard as he transitions to the NBA, but it shows the stats back up most people’s eye tests; that his assist totals and his negative ast/to ratio aren’t a proper indication of his passing ability.


Image

Visualised on a chart, it’s fairly obvious Cade has the highest variance in his numbers

here is the explanation for how the stat is calculated for anyone interested

Image


I just don't agree with the idea of looking only at the quality of the shot, and not at the shooter. Cade doesn't really deserve credit for setting up Keylan Boone 3's. Mobley doesn't deserve credit for setting up his brother's 3's. Barnes doesn't deserve credit for setting up Raiquan Gray 3's. Setting up a shot that the defense is generally happy to concede isn't typically a good idea, and the passer doesn't really deserve credit for it if the shot goes in, let alone if the shot misses.

The point isn't to create looks for your teammates that would be high-percentage shots for a hypothetical league-average player. The point is to create high-percentage shots for your actual teammates, who generally will be much better or much worse than league average on different shot types.

If you're mainly passing to your teammates in places where they're below-average shotmakers, then you're playing right into the hands of the defense, and I don't think you deserve extra credit for doing that.


I agree, but to my understanding the quality of the shot maker is taken into account with this metric when it is determining the likelihood of the shot going in off the pass.

I could be wrong , but that’s my interpretation from reading how the shot quality is determined


Interesting...reading it again, I guess it's kinda ambiguous as to how exactly they determine the probability that a shot is going to go in.

I think there's (at least) one pessimistic and one optimistic interpretation here. Overall, Oklahoma State shot 46% from the field which is slightly above average (coincidentally, Cade also shot 46% from the field, so it doesn't change things significantly if we subtract off his numbers). But apparently Cade's teammates shot quite poorly off of his passes specifically. Is this just bad luck, in which case Cade totally deserved more assists? Or is Cade not finding his teammates in situations where they're comfortable, or not delivering passes on target?

You can imagine spinning the opposite scenario both ways as well. Say there's a player whose teammates shot way better than expected off of his passes. Is he just lucky? Or does he have a really good understanding of how and where to get the ball to his teammates?
Big J
RealGM
Posts: 11,625
And1: 8,748
Joined: May 26, 2020

Re: Cade Cunningham 

Post#547 » by Big J » Wed Jul 28, 2021 12:41 am

The Athletic reported that Cade's workout for Detroit was pretty bad, and Green blew em away. Things could get wild with all of the rumors flying.
User avatar
Yuri Vaultin
Retired Mod
Retired Mod
Posts: 21,167
And1: 14,506
Joined: Jun 24, 2006
Location: In a tree by your window.
     

Re: Cade Cunningham 

Post#548 » by Yuri Vaultin » Wed Jul 28, 2021 1:11 am

Big J wrote:The Athletic reported that Cade's workout for Detroit was pretty bad, and Green blew em away. Things could get wild with all of the rumors flying.

Front offices trying to jedi mind trick each other.
Image
Props to Turbo_Zone for the sig.
Marcus
Forum Mod
Forum Mod
Posts: 10,315
And1: 5,173
Joined: Mar 03, 2014

Re: Cade Cunningham 

Post#549 » by Marcus » Wed Jul 28, 2021 1:12 am

Yuri Vaultin wrote:
Big J wrote:The Athletic reported that Cade's workout for Detroit was pretty bad, and Green blew em away. Things could get wild with all of the rumors flying.

Front offices trying to jedi mind trick each other.


that time of the year
Watch More Basketball

Sometimes silence is the best thing you can contribute to a conversation

after what he did to Moses Moody's name, I got DJ K. Perk in a Verzuz battle against ANYBODY
EMG518
Veteran
Posts: 2,839
And1: 941
Joined: Mar 11, 2012

Re: Cade Cunningham 

Post#550 » by EMG518 » Wed Jul 28, 2021 2:07 am

Marcus wrote:
Yuri Vaultin wrote:
Big J wrote:The Athletic reported that Cade's workout for Detroit was pretty bad, and Green blew em away. Things could get wild with all of the rumors flying.

Front offices trying to jedi mind trick each other.


that time of the year


Could be accurate reporting. What would the Atlantic have to gain by reporting this? Or a team somehow planting this? It doesn't change Detroit's decision. I dont get what the motive would be.
User avatar
The Moose
General Manager
Posts: 9,291
And1: 5,259
Joined: Apr 18, 2012
Location: Australia
 

Re: Cade Cunningham 

Post#551 » by The Moose » Wed Jul 28, 2021 2:10 am

EMG518 wrote:
Marcus wrote:
Yuri Vaultin wrote:Front offices trying to jedi mind trick each other.


that time of the year


Could be accurate reporting. What would the Atlantic have to gain by reporting this? Or a team somehow planting this? It doesn't change Detroit's decision. I dont get what the motive would be.


The athletic didn’t report anything about the quality of Cade’s workout. They did say Green had an outstanding workout with Detroit though
Image
User avatar
CptCrunch
Lead Assistant
Posts: 4,666
And1: 4,694
Joined: Jun 30, 2016
   

Re: Cade Cunningham 

Post#552 » by CptCrunch » Wed Jul 28, 2021 2:31 am

The Moose wrote:
EMG518 wrote:
Marcus wrote:
that time of the year


Could be accurate reporting. What would the Atlantic have to gain by reporting this? Or a team somehow planting this? It doesn't change Detroit's decision. I dont get what the motive would be.


The athletic didn’t report anything about the quality of Cade’s workout. They did say Green had an outstanding workout with Detroit though


Read on Twitter


Anyways could be fake report, regardless it has been reported.
User avatar
clyde21
RealGM
Posts: 63,559
And1: 69,984
Joined: Aug 20, 2014
     

Re: Cade Cunningham 

Post#553 » by clyde21 » Wed Jul 28, 2021 2:40 am

^ cute headline to get clicks

Motor Cade going #1 is a done deal
جُنْد فِلَسْطِيْن
User avatar
The Moose
General Manager
Posts: 9,291
And1: 5,259
Joined: Apr 18, 2012
Location: Australia
 

Re: Cade Cunningham 

Post#554 » by The Moose » Wed Jul 28, 2021 2:44 am

CptCrunch wrote:
The Moose wrote:
EMG518 wrote:
Could be accurate reporting. What would the Atlantic have to gain by reporting this? Or a team somehow planting this? It doesn't change Detroit's decision. I dont get what the motive would be.


The athletic didn’t report anything about the quality of Cade’s workout. They did say Green had an outstanding workout with Detroit though


Read on Twitter


Anyways could be fake report, regardless it has been reported.


Honestly didn’t see that, fair enough

Our beat writers refuse to speak the workout for some reason, although Weaver did say in his media interview today that they wouldn’t draft a player based on a workout
Image
reamily
Senior
Posts: 678
And1: 137
Joined: Feb 01, 2020

Re: Cade Cunningham 

Post#555 » by reamily » Wed Jul 28, 2021 2:45 am

All mind games now given the nike deal cade receive where he isnt promised his own signature shoe..now its cade floorjnga nd physical tools over jalens talent and upside..
Marcus
Forum Mod
Forum Mod
Posts: 10,315
And1: 5,173
Joined: Mar 03, 2014

Re: Cade Cunningham 

Post#556 » by Marcus » Wed Jul 28, 2021 2:48 am

EMG518 wrote:
Marcus wrote:
Yuri Vaultin wrote:Front offices trying to jedi mind trick each other.


that time of the year


Could be accurate reporting. What would the Atlantic have to gain by reporting this? Or a team somehow planting this? It doesn't change Detroit's decision. I dont get what the motive would be.


If it is true. Cool. If it's not cool. Just saying this happens often around this time of the year.
Watch More Basketball

Sometimes silence is the best thing you can contribute to a conversation

after what he did to Moses Moody's name, I got DJ K. Perk in a Verzuz battle against ANYBODY
Big J
RealGM
Posts: 11,625
And1: 8,748
Joined: May 26, 2020

Re: Cade Cunningham 

Post#557 » by Big J » Wed Jul 28, 2021 2:49 am

clyde21 wrote:^ cute headline to get clicks

Motor Cade going #1 is a done deal


It's not even a done deal that Motor City drafts him with OKC dangling SGA.
User avatar
clyde21
RealGM
Posts: 63,559
And1: 69,984
Joined: Aug 20, 2014
     

Re: Cade Cunningham 

Post#558 » by clyde21 » Wed Jul 28, 2021 2:49 am

Big J wrote:
clyde21 wrote:^ cute headline to get clicks

Motor Cade going #1 is a done deal


It's not even a done deal that Motor City drafts him with OKC dangling SGA.


it's done, finito, Cade #1 overall.
جُنْد فِلَسْطِيْن
User avatar
clyde21
RealGM
Posts: 63,559
And1: 69,984
Joined: Aug 20, 2014
     

Re: Cade Cunningham 

Post#559 » by clyde21 » Wed Jul 28, 2021 2:50 am

Big J wrote:
clyde21 wrote:^ cute headline to get clicks

Motor Cade going #1 is a done deal


It's not even a done deal that Motor City drafts him with OKC dangling SGA.


lol yes it is, Cade is going #1, it's done
جُنْد فِلَسْطِيْن
Big J
RealGM
Posts: 11,625
And1: 8,748
Joined: May 26, 2020

Re: Cade Cunningham 

Post#560 » by Big J » Wed Jul 28, 2021 2:52 am

clyde21 wrote:
Big J wrote:
clyde21 wrote:^ cute headline to get clicks

Motor Cade going #1 is a done deal


It's not even a done deal that Motor City drafts him with OKC dangling SGA.


lol yes it is, Cade is going #1, it's done


I was referring to "Motor" Cade. Obviously he's going 1. His nick might be Horse Drawn Buggy Cade if he goes to Oklahoma.

Return to NBA Draft