Reed Sheppard and Rob Dillingham - 2024 NBA Draft

[HadAnEffectHere]

I don't know how you watch Reed Sheppard get destroyed on 1-on-1 defense basically every time he's on ball and come away confident that his help defense will translate.

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He's just going to be a switch victim every time down the court, when will he have the ability to roam off ball?

You need to be at least average at man to man defense to not be exploited in a game plan in the modern NBA. Reed Sheppard is not close to average at man to man defense currently.

"But coaches only gameplan during the playoffs!"

1. The playoffs are pretty important
2. Regular season strategy does lag behind playoff strategy, but it often is adopted in the regular season eventually...

[EvanZ]

For the record I think his defense is pretty trash. In my opinion the STL% is almost 100% indicative of offensive translation, eg he's got quick hands, good instincts, and is very smart. But he's not keeping anyone in front of him right now.

And yet in this trash class he's still a fairly clear #1 (among NCAA prospects). You have to pick someone and I can't bring myself to pick anyone else.

[E-Balla]

The Reed hype seems forced, just because I have seen so many player comparisons and none of the players play anything alike.

I have seen John Stockton, I have seen Steve Kerr, I have seen Michael Brogdon, I have seen Steve Nash.

Like cmon y'all this kid is getting hype and nobody seems to actually know his game. Just throwing out random names. People in this thread saying he needs to improve his dribble. Like cmon how is this guy the #1 pick?

That's just lazy comparisons though. He has GOAT level Defensive Metrics for a college Guard and is the best shooter we have seen since Curry.

The idea that he is going to play like players from 15-30 years ago is wild.

Who is Michael Brogdon? He must be the White Malcolm Brogdon?

Nah he's the white Chauncey Billups. Add about 15 lbs of muscle and he's going to be a beast.

[JMAC3]

For the record I think his defense is pretty trash. In my opinion the STL% is almost 100% indicative of offensive translation, eg he's got quick hands, good instincts, and is very smart. But he's not keeping anyone in front of him right now.

And yet in this trash class he's still a fairly clear #1 (among NCAA prospects). You have to pick someone and I can't bring myself to pick anyone else.

Okay, so if we assume his defense is meh overall. Then we can focus all our analysis on his offense, which is a solid playmaker, elite shooting and almost non-existent threat inside the 3 pt line. When I think about how he scores in the NBA... it feels like 80% of his scoring will have to come off 3pt shooting. He isn't a player that thrives in transition, nor has he shown much off ball skills like running off screens, curls etc... bad FTr, low % of offense comes at the rim.

I see him having a lot of games in the 6-12 ppg range next year if he is going to rely on the 3 ball that much. A lot of games he makes 2-4 threes but provides very little scoring elsewhere. Yeah sure he will have some high scoring outcomes where he makes 5-6 threes, but that isn't a recipe for success.. Grayson Allen only makes 2.7 threes per game and he is shooting 47% during 33 mpg. Even in a bad draft I can't take Rich Man's Sam Merrill in the top 5.

[HadAnEffectHere]

I will say that there's like a 2-3% chance that he does learn how to dribble at a high level and if so, he can probably average like 30/8 on 110 TS+ because he's such an elite shooter.

But without significant ball handling improvements, I don't see a lot here and I don't think significant ball handling improvements are very likely.

A PG with no shake turning into a guy who can easily create space off the dribble... It doesn't seem very likely.

[BlazersBroncos]

I see Anfernee Simons on offense. Not a true PG but isnt a chucker, reliant on the 3 ball, not a guy that gets to the rim much.

Better than Simons on defense due to anticipation and IQ but also not nearly as twitchy an athlete.

[E-Balla]

For the record I think his defense is pretty trash. In my opinion the STL% is almost 100% indicative of offensive translation, eg he's got quick hands, good instincts, and is very smart. But he's not keeping anyone in front of him right now.

And yet in this trash class he's still a fairly clear #1 (among NCAA prospects). You have to pick someone and I can't bring myself to pick anyone else.

Okay, so if we assume his defense is meh overall. Then we can focus all our analysis on his offense, which is a solid playmaker, elite shooting and almost non-existent threat inside the 3 pt line. When I think about how he scores in the NBA... it feels like 80% of his scoring will have to come off 3pt shooting. He isn't a player that thrives in transition, nor has he shown much off ball skills like running off screens, curls etc... bad FTr, low % of offense comes at the rim.

I see him having a lot of games in the 6-12 ppg range next year if he is going to rely on the 3 ball that much. A lot of games he makes 2-4 threes but provides very little scoring elsewhere. Yeah sure he will have some high scoring outcomes where he makes 5-6 threes, but that isn't a recipe for success.. Grayson Allen only makes 2.7 threes per game and he is shooting 47% during 33 mpg. Even in a bad draft I can't take Rich Man's Sam Merrill in the top 5.

Chauncey Billups was one of if not the worst finisher in the league in his time. He also took a long time to adjust to the league and get to even a decent level. He's getting inducted into the hall now. Reed just really needs to bulk up and play tougher so he can draw fouls inside like Chauncey did. He couldn't make a layup but he got a bunch of free points at the line.

[JustBuzzin]

The Reed hype seems forced, just because I have seen so many player comparisons and none of the players play anything alike.

I have seen John Stockton, I have seen Steve Kerr, I have seen Michael Brogdon, I have seen Steve Nash.

Like cmon y'all this kid is getting hype and nobody seems to actually know his game. Just throwing out random names. People in this thread saying he needs to improve his dribble. Like cmon how is this guy the #1 pick?

That's just lazy comparisons though. He has GOAT level Defensive Metrics for a college Guard and is the best shooter we have seen since Curry.

The idea that he is going to play like players from 15-30 years ago is wild.

Who is Michael Brogdon? He must be the White Malcolm Brogdon?

The fact you mentioned Curry proves my point.

Curry is more than a shooter. He can also handle the rock create off the dribble. Are you saying Reed is that kind of talent?

[Colbinii]

The Reed hype seems forced, just because I have seen so many player comparisons and none of the players play anything alike.

I have seen John Stockton, I have seen Steve Kerr, I have seen Michael Brogdon, I have seen Steve Nash.

Like cmon y'all this kid is getting hype and nobody seems to actually know his game. Just throwing out random names. People in this thread saying he needs to improve his dribble. Like cmon how is this guy the #1 pick?

That's just lazy comparisons though. He has GOAT level Defensive Metrics for a college Guard and is the best shooter we have seen since Curry.

The idea that he is going to play like players from 15-30 years ago is wild.

Who is Michael Brogdon? He must be the White Malcolm Brogdon?

The fact you mentioned Curry proves my point.

Curry is more than a shooter. He can also handle the rock create off the dribble. Are you saying Reed is that kind of talent?

I said he is the best shooter since Curry. I didn't say he was similar to Curry in any way, shape or form in my post.

[The-Power]

Then we can focus all our analysis on his offense, which is a solid playmaker

How would you define solid? I have him as better than solid and genuinely great in transition.

elite shooting

Shooting ability and efficiency, yes. How high he can turn up the volume remains to be seen.

and almost non-existent threat inside the 3 pt line.

I think that's greatly exaggerated. He takes 22% of his shots at the rim (converting a strong 67% of his attempts) and 24% of his shots are 2pt jumpers (converting a very strong 45%). That's perfectly aligned with the shot profile of a modern Guard with a good jumper. He has flashed the ability to be a very capable midrange threat and he's an opportunistic driver. I'm not saying he's not limited (especially when it comes to scoring around the rim) but calling him an ‘almost non-existent threat inside the 3pt line’ seems pretty far off from my vantage point.

When I think about how he scores in the NBA... it feels like 80% of his scoring will have to come off 3pt shooting.

He'll heavily rely on his 3 but 80% of his scoring doesn't come from 3 in college – why should it in the NBA? Sure, there are better athletes but there's also more space in the lane and players get to run a lot more PnR (with better scoring big men, too).

bad FTr

.252 FTr really isn't bad for his type of player. Who's your comparison?

Just a couple quick comparisons (Freshman seasons):

Jamal Murray – .283
Devin Booker – .223
Tyrese Haliburton – .156
Stephen Curry – .277

low % of offense comes at the rim.

Again, compared to whom? His overall volume around the rim is low, I agree. And while his % of offense around the rim also is not high, it certainly isn't prohibitively low either – especially for someone who's not much of a transition scorer. But perhaps someone with access to tracking data can break down his numbers in the half-court and compare it to some other players for context. I'd be curious.

I see him having a lot of games in the 6-12 ppg range next year if he is going to rely on the 3 ball that much. A lot of games he makes 2-4 threes but provides very little scoring elsewhere.

Sure, that will happen. But a) you don't draft him for what he can do next year (he's a Rookie coming off only one college season – clearly it's about his long-term outlook) and b) he brings other things to the table on offense (spacing, organizing the offense, moving the ball, making plays for others) and only looking at his raw scoring numbers doesn't do him justice (there's a reason why he's so trusted at Kentucky despite not being a dynamic scorer and a limited defender – the coaches very well understand what he brings and play him a ton of minutes as a result, especially when it matters).

[Rafael122]

Sheppard is the type of guy that is going to get a GM fired if he's drafted too high. Ringer has him going number one overall. If my Wizards pick him at 1, I'd turn in my fandom. I watched that game against the Vols this past weekend, yes, he was effective, but he looks small. I just see Grayson Allen/TJ McConnell esque vibes from him. Limited ceiling IMO.

[Colbinii]

Sheppard is the type of guy that is going to get a GM fired if he's drafted too high. Ringer has him going number one overall. If my Wizards pick him at 1, I'd turn in my fandom. I watched that game against the Vols this past weekend, yes, he was effective, but he looks small. I just see Grayson Allen/TJ McConnell esque vibes from him. Limited ceiling IMO.

Mike Conley was small. Chris Paul was small.

Why is it always comparing the white guy to the white guy?

[azcatz11]

That's just lazy comparisons though. He has GOAT level Defensive Metrics for a college Guard and is the best shooter we have seen since Curry.

The idea that he is going to play like players from 15-30 years ago is wild.

Who is Michael Brogdon? He must be the White Malcolm Brogdon?

The fact you mentioned Curry proves my point.

Curry is more than a shooter. He can also handle the rock create off the dribble. Are you saying Reed is that kind of talent?

I said he is the best shooter since Curry. I didn't say he was similar to Curry in any way, shape or form in my post.

How is he the best shooter since Curry? Good percentage but low volume...do you look at him and think best shooter since Curry? I sure as hell don't

[eminence]

I could buy a label of 'best shooting prospect since Steph' as it's a bit more abstract, taking into account age and whatnot, but we've seen better shooters in college since then (Jimmer and Buddy both won Wooden awards).

[HadAnEffectHere]

Sheppard is the type of guy that is going to get a GM fired if he's drafted too high. Ringer has him going number one overall. If my Wizards pick him at 1, I'd turn in my fandom. I watched that game against the Vols this past weekend, yes, he was effective, but he looks small. I just see Grayson Allen/TJ McConnell esque vibes from him. Limited ceiling IMO.

Mike Conley was small. Chris Paul was small.

Why is it always comparing the white guy to the white guy?

Mike Conley and Chris Paul had elite shot creation skills. CP3 is one of the best shot creators of all time relative to his size and athleticism. Sheppard is a 6'1" Lonzo Ball as of now, he can't dribble nearly well enough to create shots for himself or others and lacks the athleticism to make up for his lack of shake.

[Colbinii]

The fact you mentioned Curry proves my point.

Curry is more than a shooter. He can also handle the rock create off the dribble. Are you saying Reed is that kind of talent?

I said he is the best shooter since Curry. I didn't say he was similar to Curry in any way, shape or form in my post.

How is he the best shooter since Curry? Good percentage but low volume...do you look at him and think best shooter since Curry? I sure as hell don't

I do, yes--and that's the fun aspect of draft analysis is we all see through a different lens.

Jimmer and the likes I had as better scorers than Reed.

[eminence]

Overall I could see Reed as the top college prospect, but that's mostly a sad thing about the class.

Cannot see him over Sarr, and it's a tough sell vs Topic for me as well.

[JMAC3]

Sheppard is the type of guy that is going to get a GM fired if he's drafted too high. Ringer has him going number one overall. If my Wizards pick him at 1, I'd turn in my fandom. I watched that game against the Vols this past weekend, yes, he was effective, but he looks small. I just see Grayson Allen/TJ McConnell esque vibes from him. Limited ceiling IMO.

Mike Conley was small. Chris Paul was small.

Why is it always comparing the white guy to the white guy?

Mike Conley and CP3 were also way better athletes, quicker and better playmakers.

Conley FTr 0.466
CP3 FTr 0.620
Reed 0.252

They are really nothing alike.

[azcatz11]

I said he is the best shooter since Curry. I didn't say he was similar to Curry in any way, shape or form in my post.

How is he the best shooter since Curry? Good percentage but low volume...do you look at him and think best shooter since Curry? I sure as hell don't

I do, yes--and that's the fun aspect of draft analysis is we all see through a different lens.

Jimmer and the likes I had as better scorers than Reed.

Less than 5 attempts per game…I’m standing by my book comparison. Very good shooter but not elite

[JMAC3]

Steph Curry shot 8.8 threes and made 3.6 per game.
Reed is shooting 4.4 threes making 2.3 per game.

That is Steph as a Freshman, when he wasn't even a draft prospect. Averaged over 10 3s combined as a soph and junior. Can we please stop trying to make this comparison.

7th overall pick Steph averaged 7.4 FTA per game and 10.3 shots inside the 3 pt arc.
People pushing Reed as #1 pick 2 FTa per game and 3.7 shots inside the 3 pt arc.

Reed is doing nothing at the types of volume we saw Steph do it. Please stop trying to make this connection.