Lonzo Ball

[MaseInYourFace]

I think Lonzo BAll has a high bust probability. If you ask me too high for a guy being talked about as a can't miss pick.

high bust because?

-not a great athlete
-poor finisher inside
-mediocre free throw shooter
-so-so handles
-weird dad way too much in his career (this is a common trope in past busts)
-bad shooting mechanics (granted he's making it work)

Great vision and great height but that will not be as big an advantage in Nba. I think he's really gonna struggle offensively in nba and that's gonna be tough to do in current nba as a starting guard.

[Marcus]

I think Lonzo BAll has a high bust probability. If you ask me too high for a guy being talked about as a can't miss pick.

high bust because?

-not a great athlete
-poor finisher inside
-mediocre free throw shooter
-so-so handles
-weird dad way too much in his career (this is a common trope in past busts)
-bad shooting mechanics (granted he's making it work)

Great vision and great height but that will not be as big an advantage in Nba. I think he's really gonna struggle offensively in nba and that's gonna be tough to do in current nba as a starting guard.

guess we'll stay tuned.

[Negrodamus]

I think Lonzo BAll has a high bust probability. If you ask me too high for a guy being talked about as a can't miss pick.

high bust because?

-not a great athlete
-poor finisher inside
-mediocre free throw shooter
-so-so handles
-weird dad way too much in his career (this is a common trope in past busts)
-bad shooting mechanics (granted he's making it work)

Great vision and great height but that will not be as big an advantage in Nba. I think he's really gonna struggle offensively in nba and that's gonna be tough to do in current nba as a starting guard.

Shooting 80% at the rim on 35% of his shots. Not exactly poor.

[AshyLarrysDiaper]

How are we defining bust? Because I just don't see him becoming less than a quality starter.

[Nick Sigler]

high bust because?

-not a great athlete
-poor finisher inside
-mediocre free throw shooter
-so-so handles
-weird dad way too much in his career (this is a common trope in past busts)
-bad shooting mechanics (granted he's making it work)

Great vision and great height but that will not be as big an advantage in Nba. I think he's really gonna struggle offensively in nba and that's gonna be tough to do in current nba as a starting guard.

Shooting 80% at the rim on 35% of his shots. Not exactly poor.

35% of his 4.7 shots per game is only 1.67 shots per game at the rim though, which is super low. And about 53% of those are assisted.

His ability to attack the middle of the defense and attack the rim is definitely a concern. His best offensive weapon at this point is a step back 3-pointer.

[TyCobb]

35% of his 4.7 shots per game is only 1.67 shots per game at the rim though, which is super low. And about 53% of those are assisted.

His ability to attack the middle of the defense and attack the rim is definitely a concern. His best offensive weapon at this point is a step back 3-pointer.

Seems like a worry for a ball dominant player--which Ball is not. He is leading one of the most successful offenses in NCAA this year because of perimeter ball movement.

[Duke4life831]

-not a great athlete
-poor finisher inside
-mediocre free throw shooter
-so-so handles
-weird dad way too much in his career (this is a common trope in past busts)
-bad shooting mechanics (granted he's making it work)

Great vision and great height but that will not be as big an advantage in Nba. I think he's really gonna struggle offensively in nba and that's gonna be tough to do in current nba as a starting guard.

Shooting 80% at the rim on 35% of his shots. Not exactly poor.

35% of his 4.7 shots per game is only 1.67 shots per game at the rim though, which is super low. And about 53% of those are assisted.

His ability to attack the middle of the defense and attack the rim is definitely a concern. His best offensive weapon at this point is a step back 3-pointer.

4.7 shots per game? Lonzo takes about 10 shots a game. He attempts 4.7 two point field goal attempts, not total shots per game. So he takes about 3-4 shots at the rim per game.

[Marcus]

35% of his 4.7 shots per game is only 1.67 shots per game at the rim though, which is super low. And about 53% of those are assisted.

His ability to attack the middle of the defense and attack the rim is definitely a concern. His best offensive weapon at this point is a step back 3-pointer.

Seems like a worry for a ball dominant player--which Ball is not. He is leading one of the most successful offenses in NCAA this year because of perimeter ball movement.

It's the most overlooked aspect in terms of the type of criticism Lonzo receives.

[NormanDale]

I think a Team that values winning could take him #1 over Fultz

As opposed to the teams that don't value winning?

[Nick Sigler]

Shooting 80% at the rim on 35% of his shots. Not exactly poor.

35% of his 4.7 shots per game is only 1.67 shots per game at the rim though, which is super low. And about 53% of those are assisted.

His ability to attack the middle of the defense and attack the rim is definitely a concern. His best offensive weapon at this point is a step back 3-pointer.

4.7 shots per game? Lonzo takes about 10 shots a game. He attempts 4.7 two point field goal attempts, not total shots per game. So he takes about 3-4 shots at the rim per game.

35.7% of his 4.7 two-point FG attempts are at the rim. That's 1.67 per game.

[Nick Sigler]

35% of his 4.7 shots per game is only 1.67 shots per game at the rim though, which is super low. And about 53% of those are assisted.

His ability to attack the middle of the defense and attack the rim is definitely a concern. His best offensive weapon at this point is a step back 3-pointer.

Seems like a worry for a ball dominant player--which Ball is not. He is leading one of the most successful offenses in NCAA this year because of perimeter ball movement.

He also has a team full of great shooters/role players. Ball gets a lot of assists simply by passing to an open shooter. At the moment his best passing comes from a standstill position. That's got to be a concern at the NBA level until he shows an ability to consistently drive and kick, which we haven't seen yet.

Let's say he goes to the Lakers - does he have the shooters he has at UCLA? Who can really consistently hit a jumper for him besides Russell? Maybe Zubac?

[TyCobb]

35% of his 4.7 shots per game is only 1.67 shots per game at the rim though, which is super low. And about 53% of those are assisted.

His ability to attack the middle of the defense and attack the rim is definitely a concern. His best offensive weapon at this point is a step back 3-pointer.

Seems like a worry for a ball dominant player--which Ball is not. He is leading one of the most successful offenses in NCAA this year because of perimeter ball movement.

He also has a team full of great shooters/role players. Ball gets a lot of assists simply by passing to an open shooter. At the moment his best passing comes from a standstill position. That's got to be a concern at the NBA level until he shows an ability to consistently drive and kick, which we haven't seen yet.

Let's say he goes to the Lakers - does he have the shooters he has at UCLA? Who can really consistently hit a jumper for him besides Russell? Maybe Zubac?

Precisely those two players. I will add Ingram a little bit to the mix as the Hamilton role, spot up three/slasher, but he'll need this summer to gain strength. If Zubac can make that 15-footer look like a layup like Thomas Welsh, then the Lakers will have great offensive weapons to support Ball. I don't have any problem replacing Randle or Clarkson with better shooters, because it's for a winning formula.

I also don't think you're giving Ball enough credit as a passer besides his ability to recognize and hit the open man. He has huge hands and he has a tremendous wrap pass with his right hand like a hook shot/pass to hit roll men and others for oops. So accurate in leading his teammate to an easy bucket.

[madmaxmedia]

-not a great athlete
-poor finisher inside
-mediocre free throw shooter
-so-so handles
-weird dad way too much in his career (this is a common trope in past busts)
-bad shooting mechanics (granted he's making it work)

Great vision and great height but that will not be as big an advantage in Nba. I think he's really gonna struggle offensively in nba and that's gonna be tough to do in current nba as a starting guard.

Shooting 80% at the rim on 35% of his shots. Not exactly poor.

35% of his 4.7 shots per game is only 1.67 shots per game at the rim though, which is super low. And about 53% of those are assisted.

His ability to attack the middle of the defense and attack the rim is definitely a concern. His best offensive weapon at this point is a step back 3-pointer.

He doesn't do it a lot, but he drives and scores at the rim very well when he does. He doesn't dribble around a lot looking for openings to drive, I understand the low frequency could be a cause for concern though.

[madmaxmedia]

35.7% of his 4.7 two-point FG attempts are at the rim. That's 1.67 per game.

The stat is not completely clear, so I looked it up. Actually, 35.7% of ALL his FG attempts were at the rim. Here's the breakdown:

Shots at the rim: 94/119
Shots 2PT J: 12/26
3PT: 79/188

http://hoop-math.com/UCLA2017.php

That seems right to me now, based on what I see on the court. I don't know if those stats include the tournament games, if so 119/35 games= 3.4 shots at the rim per game. It's not a lot, but he does get a couple of drives per game and usually 1 back door alley oop.

[madmaxmedia]

I also don't think you're giving Ball enough credit as a passer besides his ability to recognize and hit the open man. He has huge hands and he has a tremendous wrap pass with his right hand like a hook shot/pass to hit roll men and others for oops. So accurate in leading his teammate to an easy bucket.

This so much. Yes, the better your teammates, the higher your assist total. But if it was that easy to run the offense and collect assists, they would have been better than 15-17 last year. Ball was not the only incoming freshman, TJ Leaf has had a huge impact as well, and Anigbogu is a raw but athletic big man who fills a role. But the team is night and day with Ball running the offense, vs. Bryce Alford or Aaron Holiday. Those 2 can hold down the fort for a few minutes at a time, but the UCLA offense has been a machine all year with Ball (not perfect, but I think they have improved as the season has progressed.)

I don't think Ball will be a transcendent superstar in the NBA, but I do think he will have a high floor. I worry a little about his defense, but not about the offensive side. His 3 will only ever be an a occasional featured weapon, but it will be good enough to keep defenses honest.

I also think it's inaccurate to say, well in the modern NBA PG's aren't like this any more, you have to score a lot, etc. Players have adjusted to changes in the game, but it also works the other way around, NBA teams are working with the players they're given every year in the draft.

[Marcus]

Seems like a worry for a ball dominant player--which Ball is not. He is leading one of the most successful offenses in NCAA this year because of perimeter ball movement.

He also has a team full of great shooters/role players. Ball gets a lot of assists simply by passing to an open shooter. At the moment his best passing comes from a standstill position. That's got to be a concern at the NBA level until he shows an ability to consistently drive and kick, which we haven't seen yet.

Let's say he goes to the Lakers - does he have the shooters he has at UCLA? Who can really consistently hit a jumper for him besides Russell? Maybe Zubac?

Precisely those two players. I will add Ingram a little bit to the mix as the Hamilton role, spot up three/slasher, but he'll need this summer to gain strength. If Zubac can make that 15-footer look like a layup like Thomas Welsh, then the Lakers will have great offensive weapons to support Ball. I don't have any problem replacing Randle or Clarkson with better shooters, because it's for a winning formula.

I also don't think you're giving Ball enough credit as a passer besides his ability to recognize and hit the open man. He has huge hands and he has a tremendous wrap pass with his right hand like a hook shot/pass to hit roll men and others for oops. So accurate in leading his teammate to an easy bucket.

because he makes it look as easy as he does and he's not doing much in the way of flash, just how much he affects the game gets lost.

It's not just hitting shooters. It's hitting shooters in rhythm. It's not pounding the air out of the ball and forcing the defense to move with the pass. It's knowing where he needs to be after he gets rid of the ball to maximize space. It's reading the defense from the top of the key, calling for the ball so he can swing it to another teammate with a better angle for a post entry pass. It's making key plays for the team when they need it. It's the one two dribble on a closeout attack to hit one of the bigs in rhythm. It's making sure Ike gets a touch on the block and making sure he's engaged on both ends when he checks into a game. It's feeding the hot hand. It's manipulating or reading the defense to somehow consistently get that same damn backdoor lob he seems to get each game without having a pick in place to free him.

It's all the little things that don't show up in a crossover, or perfect shot mechanics, or in him playing the position to way the rest of the league does it. He definitely needs to work on some things that will help him be more effective in the NBA but what he already brings to the table is very good. We're talking about being ahead of the curve in terms of team basketball, IQ, and making the right play at the right time. Things like that are culture changing for franchises. Not having to teach those things to a rookie makes life easier and gives the player and coach alike the chance to focus on those weaknesses he does have. You don't have to strengthen his weaknesses, wait for the game to slow down for him, and teach him how to play. You don't have to wait for his positives to catch up to the difference in levels.

[MotownMadness]

He will be one of the best in the league from day 1 at running a offense in the NBA.

[Marcus]

Shooting 80% at the rim on 35% of his shots. Not exactly poor.

35% of his 4.7 shots per game is only 1.67 shots per game at the rim though, which is super low. And about 53% of those are assisted.

His ability to attack the middle of the defense and attack the rim is definitely a concern. His best offensive weapon at this point is a step back 3-pointer.

He doesn't do it a lot, but he drives and scores at the rim very well when he does. He doesn't dribble around a lot looking for openings to drive, I understand the low frequency could be a cause for concern though.

I think people are mistaking lack of frequency for inability instead of a kid with a loose handle being smart enough to not force it into traffic if it's not there. Same people would kill him though if he just went head first into a crowd and coughed the rock up consistently.

[madmaxmedia]

35% of his 4.7 shots per game is only 1.67 shots per game at the rim though, which is super low. And about 53% of those are assisted.

His ability to attack the middle of the defense and attack the rim is definitely a concern. His best offensive weapon at this point is a step back 3-pointer.

He doesn't do it a lot, but he drives and scores at the rim very well when he does. He doesn't dribble around a lot looking for openings to drive, I understand the low frequency could be a cause for concern though.

I think people are mistaking lack of frequency for inability instead of a kid with a loose handle being smart enough to not force it into traffic if it's not there. Same people would kill him though if he just went head first into a crowd and coughed the rock up consistently.

What do you make of the loose handle? It results in the occasional turnover that hasn't greatly affected him or the team. I don't think he's easy pickings either, but when the turnovers happen it seems like they should/could be preventable.

[Marcus]

He doesn't do it a lot, but he drives and scores at the rim very well when he does. He doesn't dribble around a lot looking for openings to drive, I understand the low frequency could be a cause for concern though.

I think people are mistaking lack of frequency for inability instead of a kid with a loose handle being smart enough to not force it into traffic if it's not there. Same people would kill him though if he just went head first into a crowd and coughed the rock up consistently.

What do you make of the loose handle? It results in the occasional turnover that hasn't greatly affected him or the team. I don't think he's easy pickings either, but when the turnovers happen it seems like they should/could be preventable.

It's not an issue right now because not too many teams/players press up on him. We saw it in the first UK matchup and I'm certain we'll see it again this Friday but defensive hounds can/will cause him problems. Fox forced the rock out of his hands in the first matchup and dealing with a Pat Beverly, Matt Delladova, Avery Bradley, Tony Allen in the league could prove problematic in some instances if he doesn't correct that deficiency.

His saving grace right now though is how well he orchestrates off ball or with brief touches. He's more than willing to give it up and then get it back in a more advantageous position. He alleviates it as a problem bringing it up by using the hit ahead pass when he feels pressure might come.

But that lack of handle can be glaring when he's looking to create one on one and has to use shift to do so. In a straight line to the cup he's fine but his change of direction will need work as it's not very fluid outside of spins into a gather and shot. I don't think he pounds the ball as hard as he should to lessen the time from hand to floor. I think even that small of a change will make a difference.