Lonzo Ball

[Nick Sigler]

Seems like a worry for a ball dominant player--which Ball is not. He is leading one of the most successful offenses in NCAA this year because of perimeter ball movement.

He also has a team full of great shooters/role players. Ball gets a lot of assists simply by passing to an open shooter. At the moment his best passing comes from a standstill position. That's got to be a concern at the NBA level until he shows an ability to consistently drive and kick, which we haven't seen yet.

Let's say he goes to the Lakers - does he have the shooters he has at UCLA? Who can really consistently hit a jumper for him besides Russell? Maybe Zubac?

Precisely those two players. I will add Ingram a little bit to the mix as the Hamilton role, spot up three/slasher, but he'll need this summer to gain strength. If Zubac can make that 15-footer look like a layup like Thomas Welsh, then the Lakers will have great offensive weapons to support Ball. I don't have any problem replacing Randle or Clarkson with better shooters, because it's for a winning formula.

I also don't think you're giving Ball enough credit as a passer besides his ability to recognize and hit the open man. He has huge hands and he has a tremendous wrap pass with his right hand like a hook shot/pass to hit roll men and others for oops. So accurate in leading his teammate to an easy bucket.

He's definitely a great passer, but like I said, the majority of his passing comes from a standstill. That's a concern to me in the NBA. In hindsight, D'Angelo Russell was the same way in college. Most of his great passes in his highlight reels would be standing at the top of the key (remember that incredible bounce pass against Northwestern?). We get to his NBA career and find out he's not athletic enough to break down a defense and suck defenders toward him, so his passing was quite overrated in terms of how it would relate to the NBA level.

Ball is obviously more athletic, but his handles aren't as tight, and I feel he's going to run into the same problem in the NBA.

He obviously brings a lot to the team, very high IQ player, and I actually think he has a chance to be a really good pro, but what I'm talking about here are the differences between being a transcendent player and just a very good NBA player/fringe all-star.

[Johnlac1]

He will be one of the best in the league from day 1 at running a offense in the NBA.

Pretty much my sentiments. There are plenty of pgs in the NBA who can handle the ball, penetrate, and shoot the three ball respectably. There are few who can analyze an off. and deliver the ball to the right player at the right time. Ball is in the latter group. A split second delay at getting the ball to a player at the right time, and the play is ruined. Ball will make those split-second plays that most pgs will not make.

[Nick Sigler]

35% of his 4.7 shots per game is only 1.67 shots per game at the rim though, which is super low. And about 53% of those are assisted.

His ability to attack the middle of the defense and attack the rim is definitely a concern. His best offensive weapon at this point is a step back 3-pointer.

He doesn't do it a lot, but he drives and scores at the rim very well when he does. He doesn't dribble around a lot looking for openings to drive, I understand the low frequency could be a cause for concern though.

I think people are mistaking lack of frequency for inability instead of a kid with a loose handle being smart enough to not force it into traffic if it's not there. Same people would kill him though if he just went head first into a crowd and coughed the rock up consistently.

If he's smart enough to know what he's not good at, and not do that, then that's great, but it's still a problem that he can't do it. Until he tightens up his handle and proves a consistent ability to break down a defense, I don't see how you can project him as anything more than a very solid NBA starter. It's not going to be as easy for him to "run the offense" at the top of the key and find open shooters in the NBA like it is against weak college defenses (not that many people in the NBA play defense anymore anyway, but still).

[Marcus]

He also has a team full of great shooters/role players. Ball gets a lot of assists simply by passing to an open shooter. At the moment his best passing comes from a standstill position. That's got to be a concern at the NBA level until he shows an ability to consistently drive and kick, which we haven't seen yet.

Let's say he goes to the Lakers - does he have the shooters he has at UCLA? Who can really consistently hit a jumper for him besides Russell? Maybe Zubac?

Precisely those two players. I will add Ingram a little bit to the mix as the Hamilton role, spot up three/slasher, but he'll need this summer to gain strength. If Zubac can make that 15-footer look like a layup like Thomas Welsh, then the Lakers will have great offensive weapons to support Ball. I don't have any problem replacing Randle or Clarkson with better shooters, because it's for a winning formula.

I also don't think you're giving Ball enough credit as a passer besides his ability to recognize and hit the open man. He has huge hands and he has a tremendous wrap pass with his right hand like a hook shot/pass to hit roll men and others for oops. So accurate in leading his teammate to an easy bucket.

He's definitely a great passer, but like I said, the majority of his passing comes from a standstill. That's a concern to me in the NBA. In hindsight, D'Angelo Russell was the same way in college. Most of his great passes in his highlight reels would be standing at the top of the key (remember that incredible bounce pass against Northwestern?). We get to his NBA career and find out he's not athletic enough to break down a defense and suck defenders toward him, so his passing was quite overrated in terms of how it would relate to the NBA level.

still talking apples to oranges though in terms of player type. D-Lo is attack by nature so an inability to drive against better athletes is going to be more glaring in a guy looking to get buckets first. That's the point being made in the difference in playing styles. Lonzo not looking to attack to score makes his handle less of an issue. Definitely still an issue but comparing him to more of an attack orientated player is the wrong way to go about it.

[Marcus]

He doesn't do it a lot, but he drives and scores at the rim very well when he does. He doesn't dribble around a lot looking for openings to drive, I understand the low frequency could be a cause for concern though.

I think people are mistaking lack of frequency for inability instead of a kid with a loose handle being smart enough to not force it into traffic if it's not there. Same people would kill him though if he just went head first into a crowd and coughed the rock up consistently.

If he's smart enough to know what he's not good at, and not do that, then that's great, but it's still a problem that he can't do it. Until he tightens up his handle and proves a consistent ability to break down a defense, I don't see how you can project him as anything more than a very solid NBA starter. It's not going to be as easy for him to "run the offense" at the top of the key and find open shooters in the NBA like it is against weak college defenses (not that many people in the NBA play defense anymore anyway, but still).

It's going to need work when he looks to attack one on one but it doesn't mean he can't be impactful without an advanced handle. I know that's a tough sale with what we're used to seeing from lead guards in today's game but an offense can be ran from the top of the key without pounding the rock if the action behind the lead defender is good. Attacking openings that that motion gives you can also work when the player doing so has the understanding of when and how to do so which is something he has. I get the concerns, they're more than valid, and Lonzo can be hate it or love it kind of prospect especially with the hype behind him. So I understand the apprehension. He's just not a kid we can look at the same way as some of these other kids because he doesn't play the game the same way.

[cksdayoff]

Having loose handles and not being able to penetrate and dish can work at the college level, but can it work at the NBA level? That's one of my biggest gripes with Ball. A lot of his assists come at the top of the key and a couple of steps inside the 3 point line to shooters who get themselves open and can hit shots with a hand in their face. He's oppurtunistic when he drives to the basket which is rare, and his finishing percentage is skewed because a lot of his layups at the rim are assisted. It's nice that he doesn't force things because quite frankly he doesn't have to.

his long range shooting is legit imo. I'm not even worried about his non-existent midrange game right now because it's something he can develop and he has natural touch on his shot, and his form does change when he's shooting closer to the basket which is a good sign.

[WalterBenjamin]

I think there is also a lack of phisicality with Ball regarding penetrating and driving. Can he push good defenders etc.
If he is what he is projected to be playrs like Kawhi, Klay, Beverly etc. will guard him. I find that problematic.
And regarding his role in the NBA. One guy does that and that is Harden. But Harden has all kind of skills outside of passing.

[madmaxmedia]

Having loose handles and not being able to penetrate and dish can work at the college level, but can it work at the NBA level? That's one of my biggest gripes with Ball. A lot of his assists come at the top of the key and a couple of steps inside the 3 point line to shooters who get themselves open and can hit shots with a hand in their face. He's oppurtunistic when he drives to the basket which is rare, and his finishing percentage is skewed because a lot of his layups at the rim are assisted. It's nice that he doesn't force things because quite frankly he doesn't have to.

I guess I am seeing things somewhat differently than you...

He gets a lot of assists period and they are coming in different ways, so yeah sometimes at the top of the key. He has a loose handle, but he can definitely penetrate and dish (at the college level.) He is very good at drawing a second defender and then making him pay with a great pass, and is great in transition. His finishing percentage is skewed because he gets a lot of lob dunks, but no one shoots at 80% rate on unassisted shots at the rim- how many players finish at 80% rate overall?

I definitely agree that he doesn't have to force the issue now, and can pick and choose his spots. But at the same time the team overall is doing exactly what it should with what they have. They have a lot of skill spread out over the court, but are not athletically dominant. With a different front court you'd probably see a lot more pick-and-rolls and that sort of thing. Even now, I think he's at his best in transition and really pushing the tempo.

Of course, it's going to be a lot more difficult in the NBA. I feel like a lot of the things you say about him now will actually apply to him in the NBA, especially in his first couple of years. He needs to tighten his handle if he's going to penetrate in the NBA, and is going to have a much tougher time finishing at the rim which makes the lack of a floater more significant.

It's kind of strange evaluating these freshman at the top of the draft, we try to assess their immediate NBA impact but also have to take into account they're so young and could have significant physical and skill development in the next 3-4 years. Some guys that are marginal prospects as freshman put in the work and become excellent NBA players, others never really progress beyond who they are entering the league and wash out. My guess is that by the time he is 25-26, he is going to be a pretty fantastic NBA point guard. By that I don't mean the best player on a championship contender, but a perfect 3rd piece to make it all come together. If you're taking him at the top of the draft, it's not for the high upside and AAA superstar potential IMO as it is the low downside and high floor for a player with high basketball IQ, good character, and reasonable size/athleticism for his position.

[WalterBenjamin]

I can imagine that on the Lakers for instance he could be hughe. If u have a great spot op shooters in Russel probably Ingram and Zubac as an eficient scoring big his combination of chest passes and over the defence passes and entry passes to the big is a great thing to have. From what I have seen it could be a really eficient way to get his 5 good looks if the shooting is around him. If the skills are there for his teammates Ball will probably make the right decision on whitch missmatch to exploite.

[kobe_vs_jordan]

What do you think of Ball's shotchart? One thing that pops out is his relatively low shot frequency in the corners (and reduced efficiency), especially the right corner, which is the harder shot for Ball. If he's primarily used as an off-ball player, running around screens, this might be an indication of some constraints. Since the corner 3 ball is one of the most efficient shots it would hurt his versatility as an off-ball player.

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For comparison I uploaded some shotcharts of Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, JJ Redick and Kyle Korver of their 2015/2016 seasons.



One reason for the lack of his corner three frequency is the amount of time Ball spends at the top of the key, swinging the ball to Holiday, Hamilton, etc.
Another possibility might be the amount of space he uses with his legs, he perfectly hops into a jump shot, but his legs swing an unusual distance forward. This makes his contested shots much more difficult, since the space needed for his feet is occupied by the defender. Unlike the shots at the top of the key, Ball does not have the space to step backwards to create his own space. This could be worrisome.

What do you think, simply a result of the UCLA's offensive sets or is Lonzo Ball limited, not by his shooting form, but his footwork during his shots?

I think comparing a Ball to three SGs and Curry isn't going to give you much relative data. Need somebody closer to his position / skillset far as being a primarily ball handler high volume three point shooter. Maybe players like Holiday and Lowry.

Well those players were chosen because Marcus named them as off-ball shooters, who get tons of open looks off screens. Personally I'm not sure if Ball is capable as a leading guard, so I imagine him as a wing in an offense with high emphasize on ball movement.

Think you underselling his passing. He has a case for the best passer in the draft. No reason he couldn't be a lad

[cksdayoff]

Having loose handles and not being able to penetrate and dish can work at the college level, but can it work at the NBA level? That's one of my biggest gripes with Ball. A lot of his assists come at the top of the key and a couple of steps inside the 3 point line to shooters who get themselves open and can hit shots with a hand in their face. He's oppurtunistic when he drives to the basket which is rare, and his finishing percentage is skewed because a lot of his layups at the rim are assisted. It's nice that he doesn't force things because quite frankly he doesn't have to.

I guess I am seeing things somewhat differently than you...

He gets a lot of assists period and they are coming in different ways, so yeah sometimes at the top of the key. He has a loose handle, but he can definitely penetrate and dish (at the college level.) He is very good at drawing a second defender and then making him pay with a great pass, and is great in transition. His finishing percentage is skewed because he gets a lot of lob dunks, but no one shoots at 80% rate on unassisted shots at the rim- how many players finish at 80% rate overall?

I definitely agree that he doesn't have to force the issue now, and can pick and choose his spots. But at the same time the team overall is doing exactly what it should with what they have. They have a lot of skill spread out over the court, but are not athletically dominant. With a different front court you'd probably see a lot more pick-and-rolls and that sort of thing. Even now, I think he's at his best in transition and really pushing the tempo.

Of course, it's going to be a lot more difficult in the NBA. I feel like a lot of the things you say about him now will actually apply to him in the NBA, especially in his first couple of years. He needs to tighten his handle if he's going to penetrate in the NBA, and is going to have a much tougher time finishing at the rim which makes the lack of a floater more significant.

It's kind of strange evaluating these freshman at the top of the draft, we try to assess their immediate NBA impact but also have to take into account they're so young and could have significant physical and skill development in the next 3-4 years. Some guys that are marginal prospects as freshman put in the work and become excellent NBA players, others never really progress beyond who they are entering the league and wash out. My guess is that by the time he is 25-26, he is going to be a pretty fantastic NBA point guard. By that I don't mean the best player on a championship contender, but a perfect 3rd piece to make it all come together. If you're taking him at the top of the draft, it's not for the high upside and AAA superstar potential IMO as it is the low downside and high floor for a player with high basketball IQ, good character, and reasonable size/athleticism for his position.

Agreed 100%. A lot of us tend to overanalyze proepects, especially as we come closer to the draft and I find myself repeatedly taking a step back and remembering they are only freshmen. What these freshmen have shown this season has been indredible production level relative to their age and the exciting part is that they have a long way to go in terms of physical and athletic maturity as well as room to grow and develop different aspects of their game. So im pretty stoked about what guys like JJ , Fultz and Ball can become 3 years from now. There are going to be a lot of players in this draft like a Donovan Mitchell, bruce brown , mikal bridges that will be taken later in the first round who could become better nba players than the some of the prospects taken with the first five picks because of the factors that you've stated.

[NormanDale]

I think a Team that values winning could take him #1 over Fultz

As opposed to the teams that don't value winning?

Guess he's not going to the Lakers then

[DrCoach]

I think a Team that values winning could take him #1 over Fultz

As opposed to the teams that don't value winning?

Guess he's not going to the Lakers then

As opposed to taking Fultz who put up #'s but did not win

[WalterBenjamin]

As opposed to the teams that don't value winning?

Guess he's not going to the Lakers then

As opposed to taking Fultz who put up #'s but did not win

You must love Charlotte roster. Full of winners.

[Disposable Hero]

Tonight will be a must watch game. I've loved Fox and see him just as talented as the other point guards but feel he isn't getting much love. Maybe tonight that will change! No matter what, Ball has already won me over as the best player in the draft.

[whitehops]

tonight was the first full game i've seen of ball's and his pick and roll defense was bad at best. some possessions were straight up atrocious.

i've no doubt that he's a better player than he showed tonight but for those that have watched him more: will he ever be an an adequate defender in the nba?

[MotownMadness]

tonight was the first full game i've seen of ball's and his pick and roll defense was bad at best. some possessions were straight up atrocious.

i've no doubt that he's a better player than he showed tonight but for those that have watched him more: will he ever be an an adequate defender in the nba?

He definitely had a bad night but is much better then that.

[TyCobb]

tonight was the first full game i've seen of ball's and his pick and roll defense was bad at best. some possessions were straight up atrocious.

i've no doubt that he's a better player than he showed tonight but for those that have watched him more: will he ever be an an adequate defender in the nba?

He tweaked his right hamstring in the game, and didn't move around well on offense or defense after that.

[TKainZero]

He didn't look 100%
Turnover killed ucla

[EvanZ]

Got badly outplayed by Fox and Monk in this one. I'm even less of a Ball fan than I was going into tonight.