Nik Stauskas Ceiling + Projection

[Onus]

I still think he's similar to that other Michigan Alum, Jamal Crawford.

[Darius Miles Davis]

Just to bump this, the official-ish Stauskas thread...

Nik has been climbing and is now projected to go in the 8th-12th range, with some chance of slipping into the early teens. I'm a Michigan fan and a big supporter of Stauskas, but I'm starting to wonder if he's getting overrated and the expectations are getting too high.

He should be useful from day one, as long as you have someone to patrol the middle and clean up his sloppy defense. Obviously an elite shooter, Nik can also create in the P&R, come off screens, and run an offense for brief stretches as long as someone like Avery Bradley isn't on the floor checking him. He's going to allow a LOT of penetration, though, as he's one of those guys that's quicker with the ball in his hands than without -- if you don't know where he's going, he can get by you, but if he doesn't know where you're going, he's not going to stop you.

We'll see how much work he puts in to get stronger. He's never going to be above-average with his defensive footwork, but he can at least attempt to take away post-ups and learn to play team defense (ala Reddick). If that happens and his offensive skills translate, he has all-star potential. That's at least a few years away, though. Floor? A solid shooter and scorer off the bench, useful on any team. If I were running a team and looking for a nice combination of risk and reward, I'd rather take Stauskas than guys like Gordon and Smart, who clearly have a higher ceiling but also come with some serious bust potential.

Great analysis here.

The fact that Gordon and Smart are also flawed players is why Stauskas is not yet overrated as he moves up the boards.

My big board looks like this:

1. Embiid
2. Parker
3. Wiggins
4. Exum (more by reputation, I admit)
5. Randle
6. Vonleh
7. Stauskas
8. McDermott
9. Smart

Not sure about #10. It's not Gordon though.

[tmorgan]

Not sure I can buy McDermott that high. He's like Gordon and Smart, except the exact opposite -- I worry that his offense isn't going to translate and I KNOW his defense is going to be horrid.

I know he has the step-back mastered, but he's not the size of Dirk. His post game isn't going to work in its current form, and no one in their right mind is going to leave him open on the perimeter. I don't think he has the speed to get around 3's, and if he plays the 4 at all it's going to be a massacre on the defensive end. Actually, that'll be true as a 3, too.

I'd like to see someone like McDermott succeed, as it's good for the NBA, but I just don't know. If he is a 15+ ppg scorer, it's going to be on a crappy team (ala MCW) and without great efficiency (also ala MCW).

[EMG518]

Ceiling Rich man's dirk nowitzki
Floor Poor man's luke walton

Green/

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Rich man Dirk as his celing, whatttt.

[AgentZer0]

I agree 100% with the Belinelli/Thompson comparisons 100%. He can use his whiteness as an advantage as he's more athletic than he looks. He showed he was more than just a catch-and-shoot guy in his sophomore season and that's why he'll be picked in the late lottery most likely instead of in the 2nd round. Writers and coaches noted that he became "not a huge defensive liability" last season, which is a backhanded compliment if I've ever seen one. He'll make a career in the NBA for his shooting alone, but how successful he is will depend on what he does when he puts the ball on the floor and if he can hold his own on the defensive end enough to stay on the court. I also like what Jay Williams said about him, that he's "JJ Redick, but better off the dribble". Redick wasn't a good defender coming into the league but eventually worked his way into a capable defender.

I wrote more about Stauskas, along with other incoming rookies here at http://freeagentzero.com/2014/06/18/nba ... -stauskas/