jpengland wrote:E-Balla wrote:jpengland wrote:I really do not understand why Okafor is a consensus top pick.
C's that do not protect the rim/play defense are simply not very valuable in the NBA today and are exceptionally difficult to build around. His best case is prime Al Jefferson (for a longer period) as far as I can see and that is simply not something I would want to build around.
If you think offensively and defensively he won't be way better than Al Jefferson that's your problem. He's already bigger, stronger, faster, and quicker than Al Jefferson as an 18 year old. His worst case is bigger, stronger, faster Al Jefferson, most likely is Demarcus Cousins with a brain/less defensive rebounding, and best case is Moses Malone (but better at playmaking/post moves and worse on the defensive boards).
All of these negatives people have about Jahlil were said in spades about Marc Gasol but he lost weight and started to play great positional defense once he was in the league and nothing is stopping Jahlil from losing 10 pounds and being taught defensive principals (because we all know Coach K doesn't teach them defense).
It's totally unreasonable to expect any player to follow a Marc Gasol trajectory, though. And I don't see Okafor showing signs of ever being the intelligent player Gasol is.
How about the fact that he can play great defense for the last 10 minutes of a game consistently? What about his super high offensive IQ?
Marc's trajectory wasn't crazy its just that his conditioning led him to not consistently play defense before he entered the league but he always knew how to play defense. If Jahlil is taught defense (again its been repeatedly shown that Coach K teaches his players how to mesh together offensively while mostly ignoring defense) and he loses a little weight so he can give more effort he will be good on that end. Plenty of guys his size have lost weight and become better defenders before so its not crazy to expect it just like its not crazy to expect KAT to add strength so he's not killed inside by NBA bigs.
I certainly don't see him being better than Al Jefferson defensively, his rim protection stats are some of the worst of college big men entering the NBA in the last 5 years and I believe he is in the bottom 3 alongside JJ Hickson and Vucevic (I read the article a few days ago and working off memory).
I don't know what numbers you're looking at because that's completely wrong. You're most likely referring to the DraftExpress article that has this exact sentence in it, "The numbers here suggest that Okafor hasn't been quite as ineffective as he appears to be on film at times." His overall numbers are actually very good mainly because when he tries he's pretty **** good at locking down the paint without hitting shots (one other thing mentioned in that article is his great ability to stay vertical and not foul while still altering shots). Not elite by any means but very good and definitely in the top 30th percentile for NCAA bigs.
That same article says this about his defense (note - its the same thing I've been saying about him all year even before the article was released because if you watch him this is really what you should see):
Watching the film, it's clear that when Okafor is operating at full intensity, he is able to make his presence felt with his strong frame, terrific length (wingspan measured between 7-5 and 7-6 in various settings) and solid anticipation skills. He's blocked 28 shots in 19 games so far this season, a decent mark, but his lapses in intensity, average awareness and fundamentals, and seeming unwillingness to be a consistent presence on a full-time basis have been quite glaring at times this year.
Just looking at his athletic profile (he's way taller than Al Jeff and in another class when it comes to his speed) he's clearly going to be better than Al defensively. Now he can be a very good defender if he gets with a coach willing to teach him the fundamentals and bench him for having major defensive lapses. He's only 18 while most all timer NBA centers don't enter the league until they're 20-21. The only ATG centers to hit the league at 19 are Moses Malone (ABA) and Dwight Howard. Dwight was an athletic freak and Moses was a terrible/bad defender until 77 when he was 21 (in 76 he was having his minutes cut because of his poor defense).
Fact is, it's very difficult to build around a C who doesn't protect the rim, and stats and the eye test show that it is very unlikely he will ever be even an average rim protector and I would never waste a number 1 pick (especially in a decent draft class) on a player that is difficult to build a team around.
It's easy to get excited about big men who can score in the post - but the primary role of a C is to protect that rim.
I get that you were going off numbers you thought you saw but the real numbers are optimistic and they show his defense is actually really good as lazy as he is. He also gets attacked at the rim a lot compared to other top centers (over 9.5 times a game now) thanks to Duke's non existent guard defense.
This is as advanced a post player as anyone has seen at 18 and he has serious size to even bully NBA centers (I've seen guys like Noah and Horford bullied by weaker guys than Jah).
Letting a legit 6-11, 275 lb, quick center go past is always a terrible idea. And it's not like we haven't seen him against NBA talent we have an its gone mostly like this:
[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IazdvaKG8PQ&t=5m10s[/youtube]