What is your personal big board right now?

[No-Man]

Tier 1 - Ayton, JJJ, Bamba

Tier 2 - Bagley, Doncic, Porter

Tier 3 - Carter

Tier 4 - Young, dos Bridges

Big drop

Tier 5 - McCoy, Robert Williams, Mel Frazier

Tier 6 - Sexton, Khyri Thomas, Tony Carr

Tier 7 - Jontay Porter, Knox, Bates-Diop

Tier 8 - Wagner, Trier, Vanderbilt, Shamet

Oh my

Also, what the hell is with people loving bigs so much?

Like if my team drafts Bamba or triple J top3, or heck even Ayton, I'd be pissed

[Ruzious]

Tier 1 - Ayton, JJJ, Bamba

Tier 2 - Bagley, Doncic, Porter

Tier 3 - Carter

Tier 4 - Young, dos Bridges

Big drop

Tier 5 - McCoy, Robert Williams, Mel Frazier

Tier 6 - Sexton, Khyri Thomas, Tony Carr

Tier 7 - Jontay Porter, Knox, Bates-Diop

Tier 8 - Wagner, Trier, Vanderbilt, Shamet

Oh my

Also, what the hell is with people loving bigs so much?

Like if my team drafts Bamba or triple J top3, or heck even Ayton, I'd be pissed

Says the man who poopoo'd Townes over and over before getting on board. 10 years ago, a player like McCoy would go top 10, so this isn't about loving bigs, but... I think the movement to smallball in the NBA has been mostly because of the lack of big man talent in the NBA over the last decade. Now, the supply of talented bigs is starting to increase, and to match up with them, moderately talented bigs will likely become more valuable. We're already seeing relatively slow huge bigs like Len and Valanciunas becoming more useful. Dwight Howard is no longer a dinosaur.

[No-Man]

Tier 1 - Ayton, JJJ, Bamba

Tier 2 - Bagley, Doncic, Porter

Tier 3 - Carter

Tier 4 - Young, dos Bridges

Big drop

Tier 5 - McCoy, Robert Williams, Mel Frazier

Tier 6 - Sexton, Khyri Thomas, Tony Carr

Tier 7 - Jontay Porter, Knox, Bates-Diop

Tier 8 - Wagner, Trier, Vanderbilt, Shamet

Oh my

Also, what the hell is with people loving bigs so much?

Like if my team drafts Bamba or triple J top3, or heck even Ayton, I'd be pissed

Says the man who poopoo'd Townes over and over before getting on board. 10 years ago, a player like McCoy would go top 10, so this isn't about loving bigs, but... I think the movement to smallball in the NBA has been mostly because of the lack of big man talent in the NBA over the last decade. Now, the supply of talented bigs is starting to increase, and to match up with them, moderately talented bigs will likely become more valuable. We're already seeing relatively slow huge bigs like Len and Valanciunas becoming more useful. Dwight Howard is no longer a dinosaur.

McCoy is pure trash, lets get that out of the window, again Patrick O'Bryant went that high, so you might be right, but talking about the lack of talent when the depth of bigs we have now is unprecedented in NBA history is a pill I can't swallow and a statement that doesnt' have any ground to stand on.

If you choose to close your eyes to the way ball is played nowadays and go with you personal insights, sure, do that, but don't try to sell it as if you were ahead of the curve, starting to increase? did you follow the 2012, 13, 14 and 15 NBA Drafts? like the hell?

Len is still trash, he is just in a contract year and going at the boards hard while the rest of his game not only still sucks (at least he isnt trying to pull fancy stuff out of his ass on offense that he can't do, but he is trashy on D still), and Valanciunas has become more useful because he is willing to shoot 3s, what the heck are we talking about here? Howard is more of a dinosaur than ever lol, and while his numbers are good the fact that Charlotte would've been better with a different style of big is undeniable.

As for Towns, I am tired of this already, but I had him 4th, said that he was gonna be a mix between Horford and Pau and a multiple All Star, but I wasn't enticed by his upside or ceiling, I was wrong, but talking about how I wasn't on board with him is ridiculous.

Moderately talented bigs are still just so common, have been for years now, drafting them high or signing them to a bunch of dough, remains a stupid proposition.

If a team drafts McCoy as high as you have him, I'd laugh my ass off and demand for their GM to be humiliated for year, that pick would be as bad or worse than PapaG going 13th.

[Ruzious]

As for Towns, I am tired of this already, but I had him 4th, said that he was gonna be a mix between Horford and Pau and a multiple All Star, but I wasn't enticed by his upside or ceiling, I was wrong, but talking about how I wasn't on board with him is ridiculous.

But only after trashing him over and over and over again and after it was so painfully obvious that you had to change. If you weren't so overly-aggressive and insulting in your arguments against other people's views, we wouldn't keep bringing that up.

[eminence]

First year I've really tried to do any of this, but a general thought on big boards.

I hate how close everyone sticks to the media consensus takes. If a guy is projected in the high lotto the furthest most are willing to knock him down is mid-late lotto, if he's a 2nd round projection maybe someone takes a 'risk' and calls him a late first rounder. But that's the extent that you see and it's just not how the draft works. There's ~15 players who do anything in the NBA in every draft (range from ~10 to ~20), early lotto you've got a great shot at landing one, 2nd half of the lotto is a decent shot, 2nd half of the first and 1st half of the 2nd it's a longshot, but possible, late 2nd and undrafted there's maybe 1-2 guys per draft. I wish more people were willing to call their shots and place those consensus late 1st/2nd round guys in their top 15-20 or drop 'lotto' guys they think will bust out of that top 20, it would make following these sorts of threads far more interesting and I think it could help everyone learn about some guys who the consensus might be lower on.

[Ruzious]

First year I've really tried to do any of this, but a general thought on big boards.

I hate how close everyone sticks to the media consensus takes. If a guy is projected in the high lotto the furthest most are willing to knock him down is mid-late lotto, if he's a 2nd round projection maybe someone takes a 'risk' and calls him a late first rounder. But that's the extent that you see and it's just not how the draft works. There's ~15 players who do anything in the NBA in every draft (range from ~10 to ~20), early lotto you've got a great shot at landing one, 2nd half of the lotto is a decent shot, 2nd half of the first and 1st half of the 2nd it's a longshot, but possible, late 2nd and undrafted there's maybe 1-2 guys per draft. I wish more people were willing to call their shots and place those consensus late 1st/2nd round guys in their top 15-20 or drop 'lotto' guys they think will bust out of that top 20, it would make following these sorts of threads far more interesting and I think it could help everyone learn about some guys who the consensus might be lower on.

I think part of it is that they risk having to deal with nasty reactions from other posters - who post creepy smilies and say your guy is trash or the oh so clever "pure trash" - as his brilliant analysis of your picks.

[The-Power]

First year I've really tried to do any of this, but a general thought on big boards.

I hate how close everyone sticks to the media consensus takes. If a guy is projected in the high lotto the furthest most are willing to knock him down is mid-late lotto, if he's a 2nd round projection maybe someone takes a 'risk' and calls him a late first rounder. But that's the extent that you see and it's just not how the draft works. There's ~15 players who do anything in the NBA in every draft (range from ~10 to ~20), early lotto you've got a great shot at landing one, 2nd half of the lotto is a decent shot, 2nd half of the first and 1st half of the 2nd it's a longshot, but possible, late 2nd and undrafted there's maybe 1-2 guys per draft. I wish more people were willing to call their shots and place those consensus late 1st/2nd round guys in their top 15-20 or drop 'lotto' guys they think will bust out of that top 20, it would make following these sorts of threads far more interesting and I think it could help everyone learn about some guys who the consensus might be lower on.

I think part of it is that they risk having to deal with nasty reactions from other posters - who post creepy smilies and say your guy is trash or the oh so clever "pure trash" - as his brilliant analysis of your picks.

It's also exposure. We're all hobby scouts with limited time and film resources. The top guys are being talked about a lot in breakdowns, there are many videos about these players and they are on TV much more often. So everybody knows these guys – if not for mere exposure then because you have to be informed in order to participate in the regular discussions. At least for me personally, there are many lower-ranked players I'm intrigued by but I just haven't seen enough of them or talked enough about them with esteemed fellow posters to form an opinion strong enough to completely deviate from public consensus.

I would love if we had something like regular ‘video nights‘ where the Draft board community decides to watch some two or three selected games (always some available on YouTube) of lesser known draft prospects on a given day in order to discuss the respective prospects in greater detail that day. I'm sure that way there would be more deviation on big boards when it comes to ranking prospects because we actually went through the stages of forming an opinion (watching tape with a focus on scouting a certain player, discussing our findings, shifting the scouting focus on something pointed out in the previous discussion, possibly re-thinking our initial stance etc.).

If enough people are interested in such a project, I'd for sure try to participate as far as I'm able to as well.

[nolang1]

First year I've really tried to do any of this, but a general thought on big boards.

I hate how close everyone sticks to the media consensus takes. If a guy is projected in the high lotto the furthest most are willing to knock him down is mid-late lotto, if he's a 2nd round projection maybe someone takes a 'risk' and calls him a late first rounder. But that's the extent that you see and it's just not how the draft works. There's ~15 players who do anything in the NBA in every draft (range from ~10 to ~20), early lotto you've got a great shot at landing one, 2nd half of the lotto is a decent shot, 2nd half of the first and 1st half of the 2nd it's a longshot, but possible, late 2nd and undrafted there's maybe 1-2 guys per draft. I wish more people were willing to call their shots and place those consensus late 1st/2nd round guys in their top 15-20 or drop 'lotto' guys they think will bust out of that top 20, it would make following these sorts of threads far more interesting and I think it could help everyone learn about some guys who the consensus might be lower on.

Except a lot of this is tied up in situation and injury luck. I’d feel a lot better putting “the guy the Spurs draft towards the end of the first round” at 10th on a big board than randomly guessing some specific player like Khyri Thomas. Also with the way talent (or impact or whatever you want to call it) is distributed, it is typically more of a risk to have the consensus 6th best player 3rd (or vice versa) than it is to have some fringe first rounder in the late lottery.

The part of Sam Hinkie’s GM tenure that is often overlooked is that he was willing to admit he didn’t have some magical unique insight when it came to drafting and go with the consensus BPA a lot of the time. If those players don’t work out you can still recoup a lot of value if you’re willing to move on from your mistake and trade them (as he did for MCW and was in line to do for Okafor before being forced out). Where you actually run into trouble is when you try too hard to be contrarian and then when you do something like draft Papagiannis 12th, you’re completely on your own. Or when you extend a mediocre player because he's the guy you drafted, and then he's more of a drag on a bigger contract than even the worst player is on a rookie scale one.

[No-Man]

As for Towns, I am tired of this already, but I had him 4th, said that he was gonna be a mix between Horford and Pau and a multiple All Star, but I wasn't enticed by his upside or ceiling, I was wrong, but talking about how I wasn't on board with him is ridiculous.

But only after trashing him over and over and over again and after it was so painfully obvious that you had to change. If you weren't so overly-aggressive and insulting in your arguments against other people's views, we wouldn't keep bringing that up.

Man that isn’t true sorry to say I had KAT that high and made the comp for Pau&Horford from the get-go the fact that I did t like him as a number 1 doesn’t mean that I didn’t like him or trash the guy (I might have focused way too much on his negatives but nothing out of the ordinary or you can go read our pal Duke in the Trae Young thread)

Anyway, if you think I am aggressive it is cause you have bad takes and haven’t provided any arguments beyond “hey you were wrong on a guy 3 years ago, so who do you think you are to criticise me?”

I am not insulting you or nobody, other than Brandon McCoy but sorry if that offends you

[logical_art]

Young
Ayton
JJJ
Doncic

Porter
Bamba
Bagley

Walker
Brown Jr
Carter
Gafford

Bridges
Bridges
SGA

Sexton
Knox

[eminence]

Except a lot of this is tied up in situation and injury luck. I’d feel a lot better putting “the guy the Spurs draft towards the end of the first round” at 10th on a big board than randomly guessing some specific player like Khyri Thomas. Also with the way talent (or impact or whatever you want to call it) is distributed, it is typically more of a risk to have the consensus 6th best player 3rd (or vice versa) than it is to have some fringe first rounder in the late lottery.

The part of Sam Hinkie’s GM tenure that is often overlooked is that he was willing to admit he didn’t have some magical unique insight when it came to drafting and go with the consensus BPA a lot of the time. If those players don’t work out you can still recoup a lot of value if you’re willing to move on from your mistake and trade them (as he did for MCW and was in line to do for Okafor before being forced out). Where you actually run into trouble is when you try too hard to be contrarian and then when you do something like draft Papagiannis 12th, you’re completely on your own. Or when you extend a mediocre player because he's the guy you drafted, and then he's more of a drag on a bigger contract than even the worst player is on a rookie scale one.

I largely agree with your first paragraph, situation/luck are hard to account for. 'Talent' distribution is always an interesting discussion, in theory moving a prospect from #80 to #25 on a board means almost nothing, but that's rarely how it's treated and few regularly move guys that far from consensus. Of course pegging the very few true needle movers in a draft is always the highest priority. For a team they might have a guy #13 on their draft board, but if he's a consensus 2nd rounder then grabbing him with a later pick could be a great value move (what the Kings should have done with PapaG). It's a balance though and I think most lean too far in the conservative direction when making their own boards (posters on here, other media sites, I have no idea what most team draft boards look like).

On Hinkie, ehh, he was an okay drafter. I appreciate that he's one of the first front office guys willing to move on from seeming mistakes, and there's some truth to drafting with trade value in mind, but I think you're giving it too much weight. MCW is not an example of it at all, he was a classic sell high based off perceived performance as opposed to a unloading a recent high pick before his value tanks. Okafor would be an example, but it didn't actually happen (it's hard to get anything of value for a player who's not playing well). And in general it feels like the league is quickly moving away from the strategy working (what do you think Philly could get for Fultz?).

[Ruzious]

As for Towns, I am tired of this already, but I had him 4th, said that he was gonna be a mix between Horford and Pau and a multiple All Star, but I wasn't enticed by his upside or ceiling, I was wrong, but talking about how I wasn't on board with him is ridiculous.

But only after trashing him over and over and over again and after it was so painfully obvious that you had to change. If you weren't so overly-aggressive and insulting in your arguments against other people's views, we wouldn't keep bringing that up.

Man that isn’t true sorry to say I had KAT that high and made the comp for Pau&Horford from the get-go the fact that I did t like him as a number 1 doesn’t mean that I didn’t like him or trash the guy (I might have focused way too much on his negatives but nothing out of the ordinary or you can go read our pal Duke in the Trae Young thread)

Anyway, if you think I am aggressive it is cause you have bad takes and haven’t provided any arguments beyond “hey you were wrong on a guy 3 years ago, so who do you think you are to criticise me?”

I am not insulting you or nobody, other than Brandon McCoy but sorry if that offends you

It's your style of communicating - it needs a lot of work. I think you know that. Let's move on.

[Chi town]

There are only 8 players I'd really bother ranking right now;

Luka Doncic

Michael Porter Jr
Trae Young

Marvin Bagley
Deandre Ayton

Miles Bridges
Mikal Bridges
Jaren Jackson Jr.

Knox and Sexton are probably next

Why so low on JJJ?

[nolang1]

On Hinkie, ehh, he was an okay drafter. I appreciate that he's one of the first front office guys willing to move on from seeming mistakes, and there's some truth to drafting with trade value in mind, but I think you're giving it too much weight. MCW is not an example of it at all, he was a classic sell high based off perceived performance as opposed to a unloading a recent high pick before his value tanks. Okafor would be an example, but it didn't actually happen (it's hard to get anything of value for a player who's not playing well). And in general it feels like the league is quickly moving away from the strategy working (what do you think Philly could get for Fultz?).

I'm not sure what the difference is here. If a rookie player's performance doesn't continue to improve, his trade value will get worse the closer he gets to hitting free agency and commanding a bigger contract. MCW's value clearly did tank since the trade, and it was somewhat predictable that it would once teams started to figure out he could not shoot at all (even at the time of the trade his sophomore stats in Philly had declined from his rookie year). Philadelphia was set to trade Okafor for the Jaylen Brown pick before Hinkie was forced out, and that was even after Okafor's off-court stuff his rookie year.

Outside of Philadelphia, Buddy Hield and Kris Dunn are two 2016 lottery picks who were key pieces in trades that brought in star players much better than Hield or Dunn project to ever become. Not only that, but there's a good chance that the Kings and Bulls took those offers over ones that to you or me would have seemed better precisely because those teams were still high on the potential of Hield and Dunn. Not to say the Pelicans or Wolves were drafting based on trade value, but Dunn's standing around the league before the draft definitely gave him more trade value than what would have happened if the Wolves reached for Dejounte Murray at 5 and he had a similarly poor rookie year for them. If the league's moving away from giving good value for recent lottery picks, it doesn't seem to be happening too quickly.

I don't care to speculate too much on Fultz's exact value because I'm sure you could find some hilarious answers to what Embiid's value was circa 2015-16 that illustrate how overly risk-averse most people are. If a team is looking for a point guard in the draft and Trae Young and Sexton are off the board, it would be worthwhile for them to see if they could get Fultz for their pick. If I were GM of a team stuck in the middle of the standings before the trade deadline this year, I would have looked into blowing the team up and dealing my best player(s) for a package of Fultz plus other young players or picks, which would have provided cap relief and helped improve my own lottery pick in the meantime.

[TheBobster]

Deandre Ayton
Luka Doncic
Marvin Bagley
Michael Porter
Mohammed Bamba
Jaren Jackson
Trae Young
Wendell Carter
Kevin Knox
Mikal Bridges
Collin Sexton
Miles Bridges
Robert Williams
Lonnie Walker
Dzanan Musa
Troy Brown

[Catchall]

I'm not putting them into tiers yet.

Doncic - passes like Rubio, creates and makes shots like a younger Harden, has size like Gordon Hayward; unbelievably special talent

Bagley - he'll pick-and-roll like Amare Stoudemire, and your defensive big won't stay in front of him; he might even learn to shoot

Jackson Jr. - has the tools to be a great two-way big; it's just a question of foot speed and body control from here. He's come a long way in the last year. Defense gives him a very high floor.

Ayton - could average 20/9 on good percentages; pick-and-roll/pick-and-pop scorer; team defender

Porter Jr. - Needs to show he's healthy and can stay that way; needs to show he's in shape. Could rise a spot or two in workouts.

Young - he's likely a defensive liability and bigger, more athletic guards can slow him down, but defenses will need to track and trap him at all times, and they'll get worn out and broken in the process.

Bamba - does he have Gobert's relentless motor, competitive drive and attention to detail? Probably not. But he's still a good player.

Inserting Colin Sexton - a Lillard-caliber guard prospect.

Carter - versatile, 2-way big who can play either front-court position; needs to learn to guard in space

Robert Williams - his character and effort level aren't always great, but let's not pretend he isn't better than Clint Capella if he gets some coaching and a good system to work in

Knox - UK needs him to space the floor; just wait til he plays with guys who space the floor for him. The question is whether he'll commit to defense, rebounding and playing at the 4. He's not too far behind Porter Jr.

Zhaire Smith - maybe I'm nuts, but look at his age, his athleticism, his timing and his feel, and tell me he doesn't have All Star potential three years down the road. This is an Iggy or TMac-caliber prospect.

Walker - can defend like Iman Shumpert and score like JR Smith; pretty ideal two-way SG; he should be at least as good as Gary Harris, no?

Miles Bridges - he's an inside-outside secondary scorer who can switch on defense; he could have a career like Caron Butler.

Sexton - Good all-around prospect, but may not be elite at anything at the next level

Mikal Bridges - he'll be 22 as a rookie; I get that he's basically Trevor Ariza, but I'd like a higher ceiling.

[Mulhollanddrive]

I have a big 8 all on the same level.

Ayton, Doncic, Bagley, Porter, Bamba, Jackson, Carter, Young.

[nolang1]

Doncic
Bagley
Ayton

Young
Porter

Jackson
Bamba
Mikal Bridges

Sexton

Miles Bridges
Troy Brown
Gilgeous-Alexander
Musa
Carter

Don't think anyone in that last group is a sure lottery pick yet, and unless Jarred Vanderbilt comes back and really tears it up I think the top 9 are separated enough from the field that I can't see anyone else moving in.

That was from January 10. Starting shortly after that I'd have put Doncic in his own tier but he's been slumping lately and is now hurt. Ayton and Bagley are closer together, mostly due to Ayton cutting out some midrange stuff to be more aggressive inside, but as of the end of the college regular season the top 3 are the same for me.

Probably the biggest on-court developments since then have been Young and Sexton going through shooting slumps. I'd switch Young and Jackson now (maybe keep Porter ahead of Jackson, but I'm not gonna waste time thinking about it when I can just see Porter actually play soon). I'm more up on Mikal Bridges than down on Young or Bamba to have him in the same tier as them.

Young's issues are well-documented, but Sexton is 40% from the field and 24% on threes since my post; that's definitely bad enough that I could now see someone moving ahead of him. I just don't know who as nobody's really blowing me away. Gafford, Shamorie Ponds, Mitchell Robinson, and DeAndre Hunter are a few others I'd put into that late lottery mix.

[eminence]

Students away on spring break, so some time to watch conference tourney games. Just rating NCAA guys and Doncic (who've played, sorry MPJ) for now.

Tier 1 (~MVP)
N/A

Tier 2 (~All-NBA)
Jaren Jackson Jr
Luka Doncic

Tier 3 (~Allstar)
Trae Young (high variance)
Mikal Bridges
Mohamed Bamba (high variance)

Tier 4 (~Solid Starter)
Landry Shamet
Jacob Evans III
Jontay Porter
Wendell Carter Jr
Gary Clark

[clyde21]

There are only 8 players I'd really bother ranking right now;

Luka Doncic

Michael Porter Jr
Trae Young

Marvin Bagley
Deandre Ayton

Miles Bridges
Mikal Bridges
Jaren Jackson Jr.

Knox and Sexton are probably next

Why so low on JJJ?

No Bamba either.