clyde21 wrote:KobesScarf wrote: Do I need to list every aspect of basketball? Anyway I think he should stay all 4 years in college so the difference is 19 year old rookie vs 22 year old rookie. Or better yet 22 year old rookie vs 22 year old last year of his rookie contract with a new HC or soon to be fired HC
But you think a 22-year-old
rookie Zhaire Smith is better than 22-year-old Zhaire Smith who's going to be entering his 3rd year in the league?
Makes ZERO sense on any level.
I would advise pretty much anyone to go into the league if they have a good chance at going in the 1st, but there are definite downsides. First, you're only guaranteed TWO years on a 1st rd contract, the next two are team options that are being increasingly turned down (there' been about a dozen dropped in the last couple of years). If you fail to impress in those two years--which will be the case for many raw guys--then you're back into the scrum of d-league, China, etc, and you've lost the chance to develop within the relative security of a NBA team. That bet will work for many players but it won't for lots of players in that medium-low talent range--in which you might be a 10th man or might be playing in rural Poland depending on opportunity and small differences in development. Those guys would be better served getting that 2 year trial when they're 21 than when they're 19.
And if you're actually talented and clearly belong in the NBA, then that'll show up in college and chances are you'll be taken higher than after your frosh year. That means not only more money but often more opportunity and commitment from your team. Difference between getting taken top 10 by a lotto team and 22 by a playoff team is pretty big for likely opportunity/investment in you.
It's a bet on yourself and there's too much risk to pass up a guaranteed couple million, but it still might not be the best move for many people. I've come to see a lot more the last couple years how much luck and weird chances can turn a career--used to think it was just 'if you're good, you'll find a spot' but I now think that's only part of it.