babyjax13 wrote:Hal14 wrote:babyjax13 wrote:If the Thompson twins don't develop passable jumpers they are bench players at best. Other players have been extreme outlier athletes while not being anything but bench guys in the NBA, e.g. Gerald Green, Shannon Brown, etc. They have some nice passing ability, but every time I've seen them Ausar has been passive to a fault and can't punish defenses for going under screens or switching, and Amen presses to generate rim pressure but that advantage can been mitigated because he can't shoot, either. Based on their lack of development in their most important swing skill, I can't see how anyone would have confidence in OTEs development program. Ollie might be a good game manager, and I love Mike Miller, but either the program can't identify what players need for the NBA, can't help them develop those skills, or there is something fundamentally wrong with how the twins do and/or have approached the game.
They literally just turned 20. Stop expecting them to be amazing shooters. Most of the league's best shooters are guys who are age 26 or older.
Ausar has improved his 3 pt % this season dramatically.
Also, remember that 3 pt % is not everything. It's actually pretty low on the list of indicators to look for when projecting 3 pt shooting ability long term at the NBA level.
Volume is a big indicator and both of the twins are shooting good volume from 3 and on long 2's. They'll be fine and they project as arguably the 2 best defensive prospects in this draft class, arguably the 2 best passing prospects in this class, arguably the 2 best prospects in the class in terms of rim pressure while being generational prospects in terms of athleticism.
Both of them have terrible forms. Amen shoots 66% from the line and Ausar shoots 67%, so I'm not sure what about them is supposed to suggest that they can shoot. They have ability and athleticism that paired with some actual development could result in star players, but you are acting like pointing out their shortcomings is some kind of misrepresentation of who they are as players. If we can't judge them by what we see or their statistical profiles, what is there? Highlights? Like, it's cute that sometimes they blow by a bunch of defenders and finish over some high school guys, but that schtick won't work as well in the NBA if it isn't paired with other developments in their game. Right now they are are projected to be both the oldest, and least developed players in the lottery. I mean, look at this ****, they still can't shoot and this is what it looked like when they were preparing for this season. Does anything in this video give you confidence they'll be passable shooters any time soon?
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I'm not saying they won't or can't develop, like everyone else, I am pointing out that there are some major issues in their game that are really important for their future development. Right now Amen is absolute **** as a shooter, and Ausar is improving but still not good (from threes: Amen 23%, Ausar 32%).
Volume is a good indicator, like I just mentioned in my previous post. Let's look at volume of 3PA per 40 mins:
Ousmane Dieng 8.0 (but his FT% and 3 PT% are very similar to the twins)
Dariq Whitehead 7.3 (big injury red flags)
Nick Smith Jr. 6.7 (big injury red flags)
GG Jackson 6.6
Jaden Ivey 6.3
Keegan Murray 5.9
Cason Wallace 5.8
Ausar Thompson 5.7
Maxwell Lewis 5.5
Franz Wagner 4.6
Amen Thompson 4.4
Josh Giddey 4.4
Dyson Daniels 4.3
Jeremy Sochan 4.3
Paolo Banchero 4.0
Jalen Williams 3.7
Scoot Henderson 3.3
Anthony Black 3.2
Jarace Walker 3.0
Scottie Barnes 2.7
When you look at the combination of 3Pt%, 3PA per 40 mins and FT% together, the Thompson's are in similar territory as Banchero, Sochan, Daniels, Anthony Black, GG Jackson, Ousmane Dieng, Josh Giddey, Franz Wagner, Scottie Barnes and Jarace Walker. So why are people on here being such sticklers with the Thomson twins' shooting? Where was that same energy with these other guys?
That's 19 players. All of them either went lottery or have a strong chance of going lottery this year. Out of the 19 players, Ausar is 8th in volume and Amen is 11th. So they're middle of the pack.
Then you have a few guys in this year's class with crazy high volume (Keyonte, Jett, Whitmore, Brandon Miller, Sensabaugh). But Jett, Keyonte, Sensabaugh and Miller all have similar flaws - not very good athleticism, not good burst off the dribble to get to the rim, not great finishing at the rim, not great handle, not great defenders, not elite passers. These guys are obviously all better shooting prospects than the twins, but the twins crush them in all of those other areas (athleticism, burst, rim pressure, defense, passing, ability to rise up over a defender at the rim). Then you have Whitmore, who does have really good athleticism, but is not a good defender, really low passing feel, can only drive in straight lines..)
Whitehead (in addition to injury red flags) has really just been a supporting piece at Duke so it's hard to project the type of star upside that the Thompsons have. The injuries have taken away a lot of Whitehead's athleticism (perhaps the athleticism comes back over time as he gets healthier but that's no guarantee), his handle was the weakest part of his game prior to the injuries, his defense is good but not nearly on the twins level (his D has also gotten worse at Duke post-injury than it was at Monterve), his passing feel is average at best.
In the similar boat as some of these guys I just mentioned in the "good shooters but not great at anything else" bucket is Jabari Smith. Similar deal. Couldn't dribble, couldn't get to the rim, low number of dunks, low FG% at the rim, high % of his rim attempts that got blocked, very good defender but very low feel passer, not great athleticism. But now in the NBA he is only shooting 30% from 3. That's the danger when you draft a guy and so much of his value as a prospect is tied to his shooting. If the shots aren't falling, then it's hard for that player to be a positive contributor. Same thing happened with Aaron Nesmith - he got drafted lottery and is was mostly tied to his shooting. But then the shots weren't falling as much in the NBA and then he gets benched.
Bottom line:
1) The twins shooting profile isn't as bleak as you guys think when you consider volume - and compare that volume to other prospects from the past couple years.
2) If you only look at shooting, sure, maybe you have them in the 13-16 range. But if that's the case, then you would also have Anthony Black, Josh Giddey, Scottie Barnes, GG Jackson, Jeremy Sochan, Dyson Daniels and Jarace Walker in that range.
3) Looking at only shooting is a big mistake. Like I said, guys like George, Whitehead, Miller, Sensabaugh, Howard and Whitmore project as better shooters, but the twins are better in basically every other area (most areas the twins are MUCH better than these guys). And shooting is the easiest thing to improve on once you're in the league.
Lastly, another indicator for shooting projection is volume and % of 2 point jumpers. I don't have stats on this or a whole breakdown comparing them to the other guys listed above, but if you've watched a good chunk of OTE games you'd know that the twins do take a good volume of 2 pt jumpers (because opposing defenses pack it into the paint to try and force them to take jumpers) and while their % of making 2 pt jumpers (I don't think) is great, they do make at least some of them here and there which is a good sign - especially where lots of the other guys mentioned in this post (Barnes, Sochan, Jarace Walker, Brandon Miller, Giddey, Keyonte, Whitmore, etc.) do not take (or make) very many 2 pt jumpers at all..
