Anthony Black - Arkansas

[CptCrunch]

Black is a clear top 5 pick. He is putting up worse but comparable stats as Cade while being younger relative to draft year playing in a much tougher comference. Black is more cerebral as a passer, has a much higher defensive ceiling. His his perceived lack of shooting, compared to an supposed elite shooter like Cade, is only shooting 2.5% worse from TS.

If Cade is concensus #1, there is literally no reason anyone should have Black outside of their top 10 at minimum.

I though have an irrational feeling of goodness toward Black's passing. I personally think he is nearly the best pure passer we've had in a while, half a smidge below Giddey at worst.



Also before someone flames me for saying Black's 6'7" is better than Cade's 6'7". It was stated pre-draft by KOC that Cade is 6'6" with shoes.

[EvanZ]

Citing TS% as a measure of "shooting" as far as it translates to the NBA is silly.

It takes all of 2 seconds to realize how inferior AB is as a shooting prospect compared to Cade.

[SeattleJazzFan]

black struggles to get jump shots off, let alone make them. shooting/scoring is a major weakness at this stage. having said that, Giddey wasn't much of a shooter/scorer going into the draft either. i think if you like black or your team drafts him, giddey is the hopeful or optimistic outcome for him.

[Hal14]

Black is a clear top 5 pick. He is putting up worse but comparable stats as Cade while being younger relative to draft year playing in a much tougher comference. Black is more cerebral as a passer, has a much higher defensive ceiling. His his perceived lack of shooting, compared to an supposed elite shooter like Cade, is only shooting 2.5% worse from TS.

If Cade is concensus #1, there is literally no reason anyone should have Black outside of their top 10 at minimum.

I though have an irrational feeling of goodness toward Black's passing. I personally think he is nearly the best pure passer we've had in a while, half a smidge below Giddey at worst.



Also before someone flames me for saying Black's 6'7" is better than Cade's 6'7". It was stated pre-draft by KOC that Cade is 6'6" with shoes.

They're just so far apart from a shooting AND scoring perspective, not worth making the comparison.

Cade: 20 PPG, 40% from 3 on 5.7 attempts per game, 84% FT, OBPM of 5.1, 18% turnover rate on a 29% usage rate
Black: 12.8 PPG, 30% from 3 on 2.6 attempts per game, 70% FT, OBPM of 2.8, 20% turnover rate on a 20% usage rate

Just very different players.

Cade was only like 4 months older than Black on draft night. That's nothing - not even worth pointing out. The difference in competition between the SEC and the Big 12 is also so small that it's not worth pointing out. The fact that you including BOTH of these as part of your argument, really makes it seem like you're reaching.

Do you realize how rare it is for a freshman in a conference like the Big 12 to average 20 PPG? Let alone shoot 40% from 3 on 6 attempts a game and 85% FT? Doing all of that with a weak supporting cast that had no other NBA prospects on the team - and still putting up a BPM over 8. Doing all of that at 6'7", after being a consensus top 2 draft pick coming out of HS after being the best player on the best HS team we have seen in recent memory. That's the profile of a franchise player, with a case to go #1 overall in the draft. Anthony black is a good player, a good prospect - but he does not have this type of profile.

[mattao313]

Why the heck do people keep comparing Black to cade? They aren't alike at all besides be lightskins and being guards. Lol black doesn't have the scoring repertoire of cade at all.

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[EvanZ]

black struggles to get jump shots off, let alone make them. shooting/scoring is a major weakness at this stage. having said that, Giddey wasn't much of a shooter/scorer going into the draft either. i think if you like black or your team drafts him, giddey is the hopeful or optimistic outcome for him.

To me AB is more like like the 4th Ball brother.

[clyde21]

AB is a much better prospect than Giddey it's not even really close

[NYPiston]

They're just so far apart from a shooting AND scoring perspective, not worth making the comparison.

Cade: 20 PPG, 40% from 3 on 5.7 attempts per game, 84% FT, OBPM of 5.1, 18% turnover rate on a 29% usage rate
Black: 12.8 PPG, 30% from 3 on 2.6 attempts per game, 70% FT, OBPM of 2.8, 20% turnover rate on a 20% usage rate

Just very different players.

Cade was only like 4 months older than Black on draft night. That's nothing - not even worth pointing out. The difference in competition between the SEC and the Big 12 is also so small that it's not worth pointing out. The fact that you including BOTH of these as part of your argument, really makes it seem like you're reaching.

Do you realize how rare it is for a freshman in a conference like the Big 12 to average 20 PPG? Let alone shoot 40% from 3 on 6 attempts a game and 85% FT? Doing all of that with a weak supporting cast that had no other NBA prospects on the team - and still putting up a BPM over 8. Doing all of that at 6'7", after being a consensus top 2 draft pick coming out of HS after being the best player on the best HS team we have seen in recent memory. That's the profile of a franchise player, with a case to go #1 overall in the draft. Anthony black is a good player, a good prospect - but he does not have this type of profile.

That guy has had it in for Cade since Day 1 so not surprised that he's throwing him in this comparison no matter how misguided.
Cade was quite clearly much more of a scorer, lead scoring option, than Black is currently.

Black is a better defender and looks to facilitate more than Cade did in college but isn't near the same scorer. Different players, like you said. Some see big PG with big hair that play cerebral and make that connection but it doesn't make the comparison valid. Giddey is the better comparable, at least stylistically.

[Hal14]

AB is a much better prospect than Giddey it's not even really close

Gotta love takes like this, with nothing to back them up

[JMAC3]

He was the offensive hub on a team that underachieved for the majority of the year.

Then he took a step back once Nick Smith was back in terms of role. Top 10 pick I can see, but 3rd seems crazy for a guy that is probably an average athlete and has a below average shot.

His closest comps are (in order)

Dyson Daniels
Josh Giddey
Scottie Barnes

That's an 8th pick, a 6th pick and a 4th pick. I've got him ranked 11th right now, mainly because it's a strong class and I just like the other 10 guys I have ahead of him a little more (Dyson Daniels probably goes closer to 11th, rather than 8th in this draft).

Yeah, hard for me to place him because what is his role at the next level? Scottie literally plays center offensively a decent amount of the time, don't like him as a comp for Black. Dyson hasn't played any real minutes. So that leaves Giddey, who is a unicorn of an NBA player stylistically.

Black really feels like a secondary ball handler who struggles shooting the ball. Does he play the 2? I don't really think anyone should be drafting him to be a primary ball handler or play the point full time. I like his intangibles, so I think he figures it out to some degree hence why I still have at the backend of my first ten players, but he doesn't scream building block to me.

[Hal14]

He was the offensive hub on a team that underachieved for the majority of the year.

Then he took a step back once Nick Smith was back in terms of role. Top 10 pick I can see, but 3rd seems crazy for a guy that is probably an average athlete and has a below average shot.

His closest comps are (in order)

Dyson Daniels
Josh Giddey
Scottie Barnes

That's an 8th pick, a 6th pick and a 4th pick. I've got him ranked 11th right now, mainly because it's a strong class and I just like the other 10 guys I have ahead of him a little more (Dyson Daniels probably goes closer to 11th, rather than 8th in this draft).

Yeah, hard for me to place him because what is his role at the next level? Scottie literally plays center offensively a decent amount of the time, don't like him as a comp for Black. Dyson hasn't played any real minutes. So that leaves Giddey, who is a unicorn of an NBA player stylistically.

Black really feels like a secondary ball handler who struggles shooting the ball. Does he play the 2? I don't really think anyone should be drafting him to be a primary ball handler or play the point full time. I like his intangibles, so I think he figures it out to some degree hence why I still have at the backend of my first ten players, but he doesn't scream building block to me.

None of the bolded part is relevant. We should be comparing Black to these other guys *as prospects*. Not using hindsight to look at what these guys have done during the 1st year or 2 of their careers at age 19 or 20.

Forget about what these other guys did during their first year or 2 in the league. As prospects, they all fit this profile:

-6'7" or 6'8"
-High feel, high IQ, unselfish, much better at creating shots for teammates than he is at scoring the ball himself
-One of the best passers in his draft class
-19 yrs old on draft night
-Has been considered one of the top players in his class for the past couple of years
-Handle is a little questionable, but overall a good ball handler for his size and is better at driving it to the rim than he is at shooting it from deep (needs to keep working on outside shot, but he can hit them here and there from 3)
-Has the potential to be a primary PG, but more realistically projects to be a secondary ball handler / creator who can use his high feel and high passing IQ/vision to be a really good connector piece on offense

[CptCrunch]

They're just so far apart from a shooting AND scoring perspective, not worth making the comparison.

Cade: 20 PPG, 40% from 3 on 5.7 attempts per game, 84% FT, OBPM of 5.1, 18% turnover rate on a 29% usage rate
Black: 12.8 PPG, 30% from 3 on 2.6 attempts per game, 70% FT, OBPM of 2.8, 20% turnover rate on a 20% usage rate

Just very different players.

Cade was only like 4 months older than Black on draft night. That's nothing - not even worth pointing out. The difference in competition between the SEC and the Big 12 is also so small that it's not worth pointing out. The fact that you including BOTH of these as part of your argument, really makes it seem like you're reaching.

Do you realize how rare it is for a freshman in a conference like the Big 12 to average 20 PPG? Let alone shoot 40% from 3 on 6 attempts a game and 85% FT? Doing all of that with a weak supporting cast that had no other NBA prospects on the team - and still putting up a BPM over 8. Doing all of that at 6'7", after being a consensus top 2 draft pick coming out of HS after being the best player on the best HS team we have seen in recent memory. That's the profile of a franchise player, with a case to go #1 overall in the draft. Anthony black is a good player, a good prospect - but he does not have this type of profile.

That guy has had it in for Cade since Day 1 so not surprised that he's throwing him in this comparison no matter how misguided.
Cade was quite clearly much more of a scorer, lead scoring option, than Black is currently.

Black is a better defender and looks to facilitate more than Cade did in college but isn't near the same scorer. Different players, like you said. Some see big PG with big hair that play cerebral and make that connection but it doesn't make the comparison valid. Giddey is the better comparable, at least stylistically.

Cade is still trash for a #1 pick. Note Cade is a good player, just trash tier for a #1 pick. Quote me in 2 years.

Black is basically as good as Cade.

[JMAC3]

His closest comps are (in order)

Dyson Daniels
Josh Giddey
Scottie Barnes

That's an 8th pick, a 6th pick and a 4th pick. I've got him ranked 11th right now, mainly because it's a strong class and I just like the other 10 guys I have ahead of him a little more (Dyson Daniels probably goes closer to 11th, rather than 8th in this draft).

Yeah, hard for me to place him because what is his role at the next level? Scottie literally plays center offensively a decent amount of the time, don't like him as a comp for Black. Dyson hasn't played any real minutes. So that leaves Giddey, who is a unicorn of an NBA player stylistically.

Black really feels like a secondary ball handler who struggles shooting the ball. Does he play the 2? I don't really think anyone should be drafting him to be a primary ball handler or play the point full time. I like his intangibles, so I think he figures it out to some degree hence why I still have at the backend of my first ten players, but he doesn't scream building block to me.

None of the bolded part is relevant. We should be comparing Black to these other guys *as prospects*. Not using hindsight to look at what these guys have done during the 1st year or 2 of their careers at age 19 or 20.

Barnes had a near 7-3 wingspan and was 225 lbs and profiled more as a mini Giannis than a combo guard.
Black is 198 lbs. Is that prospect talk enough to squash that?

My whole point is there are not tons of rotation players in the league that fit Black's mold. Daniels skillset hasn't proven to be valuable and that is who Black profiles best to? Hence my concern.

[Hal14]

Yeah, hard for me to place him because what is his role at the next level? Scottie literally plays center offensively a decent amount of the time, don't like him as a comp for Black. Dyson hasn't played any real minutes. So that leaves Giddey, who is a unicorn of an NBA player stylistically.

Black really feels like a secondary ball handler who struggles shooting the ball. Does he play the 2? I don't really think anyone should be drafting him to be a primary ball handler or play the point full time. I like his intangibles, so I think he figures it out to some degree hence why I still have at the backend of my first ten players, but he doesn't scream building block to me.

None of the bolded part is relevant. We should be comparing Black to these other guys *as prospects*. Not using hindsight to look at what these guys have done during the 1st year or 2 of their careers at age 19 or 20.

Barnes had a near 7-3 wingspan and was 225 lbs and profiled more as a mini Giannis than a combo guard.
Black is 198 lbs. Is that prospect talk enough to squash that?

My whole point is there are not tons of rotation players in the league that fit Black's mold. Daniels skillset hasn't proven to be valuable and that is who Black profiles best to? Hence my concern.

I'm breaking down their games. and putting more emphasis on their skill sets, strengths/weaknesses as players, rather than weight and wingspan.

Looking at their games as prospects, Barnes had a 31% assist rate in college, compared to 20% for anthony black. There was lots of talk before the draft about whether Barnes was gonna play PG once he got to the league..Barnes acted as a "point forward" most of the time in college. FSU didn't really have a true PG. Barnes was often the one out on the perimeter initiating the team's offense. And he was a non-big man with a 31% assist rate. I think he fits the "jumbo playmaker" archetype.

If we want to get more broad with the "jumbo playmaker" archetype (guys who are 6'7" or taller, questionable shooting but elite passer/playmaker who can handle the ball well for a dude that size, can see over the top of a defense, 19 on draft night, consensus lottery pick), we can also add lonzo ball, lamelo ball and ben simmons. So that gives us:

Lamelo Ball
Lonzo ball
ben simmons
scottie barnes
josh giddey
dyson daniels

I'd say the success rate on this archetype is pretty high. Way too soon to judge daniels (btw, weird to say he hasn't played any real minutes when he averaged 18 MPG in 59 games, started 11 games) but everyone else has either been an all-star, ROY, borderline all-star or likely on their way to all-star. And from this class, we're adding black and amen to this archetype. You could even make a case for ausar. we're seeing more and more of these types of guys and they pretty much always turn into good NBA players.

Lastly, you said you have Black towards the end of your top 10. That's actually higher than i have him (I have him ranked 11 at the moment) so what are we doing here?

[clyde21]

yea, very tough to project a 6-7 elite lead guard with high BBIQ with and + athleticism who can defend 1-3.

[JMAC3]

yea, very tough to project a 6-7 elite lead guard with high BBIQ with and + athleticism who can defend 1-3.

Really just tossed the word elite in there, I really don't see him elite at any one thing. I think he a solid all-around player that needs to improve his shooting. His size is probably his best attribute, but that becomes less appealing if he plays on the wing instead of a full time point guard.

[Upperclass]

He has no discernable NBA skills except ok defense.. He's like a Carter-Williams or Lonzo Ball without the J imo

[JMAC3]

I won't limit his upside to this guy, but he probably ends up a lot closer to Caris Levert than worth the #3 pick.

if someone told me in 5 years he was playing a Troy Brown Jr type of role for someone I wouldn't be in shock.

[Big J]

They're just so far apart from a shooting AND scoring perspective, not worth making the comparison.

Cade: 20 PPG, 40% from 3 on 5.7 attempts per game, 84% FT, OBPM of 5.1, 18% turnover rate on a 29% usage rate
Black: 12.8 PPG, 30% from 3 on 2.6 attempts per game, 70% FT, OBPM of 2.8, 20% turnover rate on a 20% usage rate

Just very different players.

Cade was only like 4 months older than Black on draft night. That's nothing - not even worth pointing out. The difference in competition between the SEC and the Big 12 is also so small that it's not worth pointing out. The fact that you including BOTH of these as part of your argument, really makes it seem like you're reaching.

Do you realize how rare it is for a freshman in a conference like the Big 12 to average 20 PPG? Let alone shoot 40% from 3 on 6 attempts a game and 85% FT? Doing all of that with a weak supporting cast that had no other NBA prospects on the team - and still putting up a BPM over 8. Doing all of that at 6'7", after being a consensus top 2 draft pick coming out of HS after being the best player on the best HS team we have seen in recent memory. That's the profile of a franchise player, with a case to go #1 overall in the draft. Anthony black is a good player, a good prospect - but he does not have this type of profile.

That guy has had it in for Cade since Day 1 so not surprised that he's throwing him in this comparison no matter how misguided.
Cade was quite clearly much more of a scorer, lead scoring option, than Black is currently.

Black is a better defender and looks to facilitate more than Cade did in college but isn't near the same scorer. Different players, like you said. Some see big PG with big hair that play cerebral and make that connection but it doesn't make the comparison valid. Giddey is the better comparable, at least stylistically.

Cade is still trash for a #1 pick. Note Cade is a good player, just trash tier for a #1 pick. Quote me in 2 years.

Black is basically as good as Cade.

I was hammering this back when he was drafted. He’s not a winning player as your franchise guy, and now he has Sam Bowie shin issues.

[azcatz11]

I think he's going to be out of the league within a few years. I don't understand the hype with him. He is so passive on offense. I don't know what he does well. I wouldn't draft him in the 1st round