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Colbinii wrote:

JMAC3 wrote:

Colbinii wrote:
Yeah, Trey Murphy is excellent. Ranks 45th in BPM, 39th in OBPM, 19% USG [FVV, Buddy Hield, Derreck White level of Usage] and scoring right at league efficient.

That's a very good starting caliber wing, an absurd 4.0 TOV% with Massive On-Court +/- and On/Off +/-

I would be surprised if anyone from this draft is as good as Trey Murphy III is in year 3. He ranks 4th in BPM & VORP from his draft class is the best shooter from his draft class.

Do you consider anyone from this draft class, 2024, to be the same level prospects as Cade/Mobley/Barnes or as good in the NBA by year 3 as Sengun/Wagner? I don't think I would for either of these questions. Trey Murphy III is right behind this group of 5 from the 2021 Draft class as an NBA Product.

I would fully expect 3 of the first 5 picks to be better than Trey Murphy is right now by their 3rd year yes.

I would bet than 3 of the first 5 picks will not be eclipsing Murphy's metrics in BPM, +/-, On/Off or even Usage Rate [19%, alluded to earlier].

You are expecting 3/5 players to basically be Top 100 players by year 3. That's incredibly rare for a draft, especially one without a Zion/Wemby level prospect to almost assuredly produce 1 Top 100 player.

So you are trading #1 pick for Murphy if you could?

JMAC3 wrote:

Colbinii wrote:

JMAC3 wrote:
I would fully expect 3 of the first 5 picks to be better than Trey Murphy is right now by their 3rd year yes.

I would bet than 3 of the first 5 picks will not be eclipsing Murphy's metrics in BPM, +/-, On/Off or even Usage Rate [19%, alluded to earlier].

You are expecting 3/5 players to basically be Top 100 players by year 3. That's incredibly rare for a draft, especially one without a Zion/Wemby level prospect to almost assuredly produce 1 Top 100 player.

So you are trading #1 pick for Murphy if you could?

No, contract and cost control matters, as does some potential high-end outcomes occurring with prospects which could exceed anything we have seen from Murphy III.

Murphy III is plug-and-play. He doesn't require a heavy offensive-load to produce offensive at an efficient clip. He does, however, require additional playmaker(s) on the court as he isn't a good pick and roll ball-handler and is pedestrian, at best, as a playmaker. He has found himself on a roster with better playmaker(s) like McCollum, Ingram and Zion--all of whom are supporting > 20% AST%.

Murphy III is never going to be able to strattle higher usage rates like a Cade Cunningham or Anthony Edwards which propels them to having significantly higher ceilings as a basketball player. Right now, however, Murphy is in a setting where his skill-set is thriving and he is thriving in his role. However, in a draft, I want to take a player who has more juice early in the draft as that is where the higher-end outcomes can happen [and exceed someone like Murphy III]. I just don't see 3/5 of the Top 5--no matter who the 5 are--as being players who are clearly better on the court than Murphy III.

JMAC3 wrote:

Colbinii wrote:

JMAC3 wrote:
I would fully expect 3 of the first 5 picks to be better than Trey Murphy is right now by their 3rd year yes.

I would bet than 3 of the first 5 picks will not be eclipsing Murphy's metrics in BPM, +/-, On/Off or even Usage Rate [19%, alluded to earlier].

You are expecting 3/5 players to basically be Top 100 players by year 3. That's incredibly rare for a draft, especially one without a Zion/Wemby level prospect to almost assuredly produce 1 Top 100 player.

So you are trading #1 pick for Murphy if you could?

Not sure about him, but I absolutely would. Murphy has all-star potential in a bigger role. No disrespect but he's playing with 3 all-star caliber players on his team and he's still showing you signs of all-star potential.

This draft doesn't have a all-star caliber talent at least from what I have seen. If we got the #1 pick I would easily trade it for Murphy and not think twice about it.

JustBuzzin wrote:

JMAC3 wrote:

Colbinii wrote:
I would bet than 3 of the first 5 picks will not be eclipsing Murphy's metrics in BPM, +/-, On/Off or even Usage Rate [19%, alluded to earlier].

You are expecting 3/5 players to basically be Top 100 players by year 3. That's incredibly rare for a draft, especially one without a Zion/Wemby level prospect to almost assuredly produce 1 Top 100 player.

So you are trading #1 pick for Murphy if you could?

Not sure about him, but I absolutely would. Murphy has all-star potential in a bigger role. No disrespect but he's playing with 3 all-star caliber players on his team and he's still showing you signs of all-star potential.

This draft doesn't have a all-star caliber talent at least from what I have seen. If we got the #1 pick I would easily trade it for Murphy and not think twice about it.

I get not feeling confident in certain guys having allstar potential, but we are probably getting at least 3 allstars in the lottery regardless.
Just a quick look but every draft from 2007-2020 have at least 3-4 allstars in the lottery except 2013.

That is 93% chance in that 14 year period.

JMAC3 wrote:

JustBuzzin wrote:

JMAC3 wrote:
So you are trading #1 pick for Murphy if you could?

Not sure about him, but I absolutely would. Murphy has all-star potential in a bigger role. No disrespect but he's playing with 3 all-star caliber players on his team and he's still showing you signs of all-star potential.

This draft doesn't have a all-star caliber talent at least from what I have seen. If we got the #1 pick I would easily trade it for Murphy and not think twice about it.

I get not feeling confident in certain guys having allstar potential, but we are probably getting at least 3 allstars in the lottery regardless.
Just a quick look but every draft from 2007-2020 have at least 3-4 allstars in the lottery except 2013.

That is 93% chance in that 14 year period.

In the 1st 3 years they had 3-4 all-stars?

Colbinii wrote:

JMAC3 wrote:

JustBuzzin wrote:Not sure about him, but I absolutely would. Murphy has all-star potential in a bigger role. No disrespect but he's playing with 3 all-star caliber players on his team and he's still showing you signs of all-star potential.

This draft doesn't have a all-star caliber talent at least from what I have seen. If we got the #1 pick I would easily trade it for Murphy and not think twice about it.

I get not feeling confident in certain guys having allstar potential, but we are probably getting at least 3 allstars in the lottery regardless.
Just a quick look but every draft from 2007-2020 have at least 3-4 allstars in the lottery except 2013.

That is 93% chance in that 14 year period.

In the 1st 3 years they had 3-4 all-stars?

No, but Murphy isn't close to an allstar either right now.
But yes most likely all those guys were allstars during their first 8 years (rookie deal+ RFA extension).
More than likely if they end up allstars, they will be productive young players in years 1-3.

The big thing is that this is maybe the worst draft of all time so expecting the #1 pick to be a good bit worse than Trey Murphy III is something you can reasonably think.

Risacher just has no upside whatsoever on offense and very little on defense.

HadAnEffectHere wrote:The big thing is that this is maybe the worst draft of all time so expecting the #1 pick to be a good bit worse than Trey Murphy III is something you can reasonably think.

Risacher just has no upside whatsoever on offense and very little on defense.

Just some players I would consider trading the #1 pick for Trey Murphy, Jalen Suggs, Austin Reaves.

Hal14 wrote:

Mr Peanut wrote:For what it's worth he is the new number 1 prospect on the ESPN draft rankings.

That is worth basically nothing.

Mr Peanut wrote:His play has been really strong over the past month

It has? his last 2 games he's only averaging 4.5 PPG, 1.5 RPG and 0 APG.

Mr Peanut wrote:continuing to shoot over 45% from 3 on a good volume.

He's 0/5 from 3 over his last 2 games. 26% over his last 7 games. 25% from 3 over his last 10 games.

He's at 3.3 3PA/game on the season which is decent volume but not great.

And he's only at 70% FT on the season.

Was at just 2 3PA/game last season, shooting 30% from 3 last season and 70% FT.

Also, this season he has more turnovers than assists.

Mr Peanut wrote: and being a strong and versatile defender.

Idk about that. His defense has looked ok to me. Not terrible but not great.

In terms of defensive versatility, he gets abused fairly often when he has to switch onto a big and the big will get the ball inside and score pretty easily..and they don't seem to switch him onto quick guards very often but when they do, I've seen mixed results and that's being generous.

I don't know if you've realized, so I'll spell it out plainly for you, but you've quoted a post I've made six weeks ago.

And the bulk of your replies where you've painstakingly dissected my post are based on more recent games which clearly had not happened when I commented.

Maybe look a bit closer before you hit that submit button next time.

HadAnEffectHere wrote:The big thing is that this is maybe the worst draft of all time so expecting the #1 pick to be a good bit worse than Trey Murphy III is something you can reasonably think.

Risacher just has no upside whatsoever on offense and very little on defense.

He is 6-9, with a 6-10 wingspan that is a good enough shooter and athlete to play the 2 guard in the NBA, hard to say that has no upside at age 19.

JMAC3 wrote:

HadAnEffectHere wrote:The big thing is that this is maybe the worst draft of all time so expecting the #1 pick to be a good bit worse than Trey Murphy III is something you can reasonably think.

Risacher just has no upside whatsoever on offense and very little on defense.

He is 6-9, with a 6-10 wingspan that is a good enough shooter and athlete to play the 2 guard in the NBA, hard to say that has no upside at age 19.

He's not athletic enough to play the 2.

His shooting is OK, but not great at all.

HadAnEffectHere wrote:

JMAC3 wrote:

HadAnEffectHere wrote:The big thing is that this is maybe the worst draft of all time so expecting the #1 pick to be a good bit worse than Trey Murphy III is something you can reasonably think.

Risacher just has no upside whatsoever on offense and very little on defense.

He is 6-9, with a 6-10 wingspan that is a good enough shooter and athlete to play the 2 guard in the NBA, hard to say that has no upside at age 19.

He's not athletic enough to play the 2.

His shooting is OK, but not great at all.

His shooting is more than OK, I get if you want to say it isn't elite but he has a case that he is still a top 3 shooter in this draft.
He 100% has the athleticism to play the 2, especially with his length.

I hope he doesnt go 1st ! I doubt he could live up the hype of being 1st pick, too much pressure. I'd love to see him 3rd going to Washington or Spurs ! I dont want any french players going to Detroit for the next century

remi_222 wrote:I hope he doesnt go 1st ! I doubt he could live up the hype of being 1st pick, too much pressure. I'd love to see him 3rd going to Washington or Spurs ! I dont want any french players going to Detroit for the next century

There’d be less pressure at the Spurs even if he went 1st because he’d never be expected to be the first option. Going 1st to a team like Washington or Detroit would be tough pressure-wise.

Is Michael Porter Jr a good comp for him?

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genius- wrote:Is Michael Porter Jr a good comp for him?

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No, Porter Jr is a much better shooter (more accurate, much higher release point, much better off the dribble).

Risacher's only major pros are his motor and his BBIQ, which makes him very different from MPJ who is one of the 10 dumbest players in the NBA.

Risacher is kind of like a taller, but less explosive Royce O'Neale.

genius- wrote:Is Michael Porter Jr a good comp for him?

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No, MPJ has more size and is in a different tier as an athlete and finishing around the rim. MPJ also had better shot creation because of his superior tools. Risacher is better defensively than MPJ was when he was the same age.

He's more comparable to Otto Porter Jr.

JMAC3 wrote:

HadAnEffectHere wrote:The big thing is that this is maybe the worst draft of all time so expecting the #1 pick to be a good bit worse than Trey Murphy III is something you can reasonably think.

Risacher just has no upside whatsoever on offense and very little on defense.

He is 6-9, with a 6-10 wingspan that is a good enough shooter and athlete to play the 2 guard in the NBA, hard to say that has no upside at age 19.

2-guard?

He's 6'9.5". Nobody at that size plays guard unless they're Magic Johnson or Ben Simmons. And Risacher isn't anywhere remotely closely to either of those guys in terms of quickness, ball handling, driving the ball, getting to their spots or playmaking.

Risacher is a wing. He's a wing who appears to be a pretty good shooter but we only have 1 season of him as a good shooter (30% from 3 last season) and during his 1 season as a good shooter he's only at 70% from the FT line. The defense looks decent..decent connective passing flashes. But low assist %, low steals %, low blocks %, low rebound %, athleticism is average at best. Limited as a shot creator. More turnovers than assists..

I could see maybe taking him at 5, but only because this is a weak class in the top 5-10 picks..

Hal14 wrote:

JMAC3 wrote:

HadAnEffectHere wrote:The big thing is that this is maybe the worst draft of all time so expecting the #1 pick to be a good bit worse than Trey Murphy III is something you can reasonably think.

Risacher just has no upside whatsoever on offense and very little on defense.

He is 6-9, with a 6-10 wingspan that is a good enough shooter and athlete to play the 2 guard in the NBA, hard to say that has no upside at age 19.

2-guard?

Why can't he play both the 2 and the 3 at the next level? Is this some height ordeal that he is too tall?

Young Paul George did, Brandon Miller is, Middleton did..

What position do you think he plays?

HadAnEffectHere wrote:

genius- wrote:Is Michael Porter Jr a good comp for him?

Sent from my SM-S918W using RealGM mobile app

No, Porter Jr is a much better shooter (more accurate, much higher release point, much better off the dribble).

Risacher's only major pros are his motor and his BBIQ, which makes him very different from MPJ who is one of the 10 dumbest players in the NBA.

Risacher is kind of like a taller, but less explosive Royce O'Neale.

MPJ's brother being caught for betting unders on himself right after this post... MPJ now can claim top 9, lol.