Isiah Reed Sheppard, #1 pick for 2024

[crows2]

He doesn't get to the rim.

Is that backed up by the stats? In the footage I’ve seen he seems to be able to.

[The Moose]

He doesn't get to the rim.

Is that backed up by the stats? In the footage I’ve seen he seems to be able to.

recent Kentucky guards unassisted rim makes:

1. De'Aaron Fox - 106
2. John Wall - 84
3. Tyrese Maxey - 57
4. Jamal Murray - 55
t5. Brandon Knight - 47
t5. Cason Wallace - 47
7. Malik Monk - 37
8. Reed Sheppard - 36
9. Tyler Herro - 33
10. TyTy Washington - 22
t11. Devin Booker - 18
t11. Immanuel Quickley - 18

Definitely not elite, but not terrible at all

It's mediocre but in line with recent top 20 picks like:

Hali : 30 uAST rim makes
DDV: 40 uAST rim makes
Keyonte George: 23 uAST rim makes

Worth noting that Kentucky guards make up almost 1/5 of all lottery picks in the last 15 years with under 60 rim makes

[JMAC3]

He doesn't get to the rim.

Is that backed up by the stats? In the footage I’ve seen he seems to be able to.

Shots at the Rim for each
Collier 154 (in 27 games)
Castle 149 (34 games)
Topic 121 (in 12 games)
Dillingham 113 (in 34 games)
Sheppard 60 (in 33 games)

Sheppard had 65 free throws vs
Collier 156
Castle 110
Dillingham 98
Topic 55 (AGAIN in 12 games)

[pad300]

He doesn't get to the rim.

Is that backed up by the stats? In the footage I’ve seen he seems to be able to.

recent Kentucky guards unassisted rim makes:

1. De'Aaron Fox - 106
2. John Wall - 84
3. Tyrese Maxey - 57
4. Jamal Murray - 55
t5. Brandon Knight - 47
t5. Cason Wallace - 47
7. Malik Monk - 37
8. Reed Sheppard - 36
9. Tyler Herro - 33
10. TyTy Washington - 22
t11. Devin Booker - 18
t11. Immanuel Quickley - 18

Definitely not elite, but not terrible at all

It's mediocre but in line with recent top 20 picks like:

Hali : 30 uAST rim makes
DDV: 40 uAST rim makes
Keyonte George: 23 uAST rim makes

Worth noting that Kentucky guards make up almost 1/5 of all lottery picks in the last 15 years with under 60 rim makes

I don't see Dillingham on your list. Does he have less than 18 unassisted rim makes? That would be a surprising data point...

Edit: Especially with what JMac3 just put up about attempts at the rim. That would be either a really low make rate, or a really high % assisted at the rim...

[The Moose]

Is that backed up by the stats? In the footage I’ve seen he seems to be able to.

recent Kentucky guards unassisted rim makes:

1. De'Aaron Fox - 106
2. John Wall - 84
3. Tyrese Maxey - 57
4. Jamal Murray - 55
t5. Brandon Knight - 47
t5. Cason Wallace - 47
7. Malik Monk - 37
8. Reed Sheppard - 36
9. Tyler Herro - 33
10. TyTy Washington - 22
t11. Devin Booker - 18
t11. Immanuel Quickley - 18

Definitely not elite, but not terrible at all

It's mediocre but in line with recent top 20 picks like:

Hali : 30 uAST rim makes
DDV: 40 uAST rim makes
Keyonte George: 23 uAST rim makes

Worth noting that Kentucky guards make up almost 1/5 of all lottery picks in the last 15 years with under 60 rim makes

I don't see Dillingham on your list. Does he have less than 18 unassisted rim makes? That would be a surprising data point...

Edit: Especially with what JMac3 just put up about attempts at the rim. That would be either a really low make rate, or a really high % assisted at the rim...

Dillingham had 44 uAST makes at the rim

[JMAC3]

He doesn't get to the rim.

Is that backed up by the stats? In the footage I’ve seen he seems to be able to.

Shots at the Rim for each
Collier 154 (in 27 games)
Castle 149 (34 games)
Topic 121 (in 12 games)
Dillingham 113 (in 34 games)
Sheppard 60 (in 33 games)

Sheppard had 65 free throws vs
Collier 156
Castle 110
Dillingham 98
Topic 55 (AGAIN in 12 games)

Sheppard shoots a good percentage at the rim, so not shocked his makes is wayyyy off... but it is kind of like shooting the ball. If a guy is only taking 2 threes per game you have to imagine he is taking the wideeeee open ones and not really able to either create/shoot the semi-contested ones. That is my thesis here with Reed, yes he can get to the rim for the easy ones, but he isn't putting that downhill pressure on the rim that you really need to be a good lead guard in the NBA.

I think he actually profiles as a Lonzo Ball type of PG, just without the elite defense. Moves ball, can run some PnR, but mainly just a ball mover and spot up shooter.

[SelfishPlayer]

Players are attempting more floaters than ever.

[One_and_Done]

I haven't done much scouting this year, but I'd be worried if my team was going to take the guys projected top 2 right now. They're so meh and risky that I'm not sure guys below them shouldn't be taken first. I feel like if Reed was 2 inches taller, or if Castle could hit 3s right now, then they'd be way ahead of Sarr and ZR.

[FarBeyondDriven]

If I knew a team was going to let him be their point guard and work through the kinks but stick with him there then I think his comp is Mark Price and he'd jump into the top 5-10. If he's what I think he is, a combo guard, mostly off-ball 2, than his comp is Steve Kerr and he deserves to go in the 20s.

[Catchall]

If I knew a team was going to let him be their point guard and work through the kinks but stick with him there then I think his comp is Mark Price and he'd jump into the top 5-10. If he's what I think he is, a combo guard, mostly off-ball 2, than his comp is Steve Kerr and he deserves to go in the 20s.

I like the Mark Price comp for shooting and defensive instincts/reactions. However, I'd need to know that Sheppard's off-the-dribble game is going to expand enough, making him a bonafide triple-threat, before I could really project that comp.

One thing to keep in mind is that Steph Curry's game didn't really open up until he tightened his handle and improved his on-ball creation. I think Sheppard is in a similar situation.

[RyugaFan]

Reed's handle is a legit weakness. He can't manipulate the ball and pass off live dribble like other PGs, although that hasn't stopped Haliburton from being a star player.

[JMAC3]

The Reed argument is just how much do you trust the numbers? People can post all the BPM, steal rate, historic 3pt% all they want, but the film tells a different story... which is why the Reed supporters hardly ever post clips of him disproving the narratives.

In 33 games he shot 34 pull up 3s and made 17. Good percentage but that is not elite shooter numbers in terms of attempts.
For Example Nikola Topic shot 37 pull up threes in half the number of games and he made 15.

No argument that Reed is the better shooter, especially on catch and shoots but the shot creation is a clear weaknesses, getting to rim is a clear weakness, drawing fouls is a clear weakness. Add in the size concerns and that is a lot of Red Flags to ignore for someone poeple are pumping as a #3 or #1 prospect.

[Hal14]

He doesn't get to the rim.

Is that backed up by the stats? In the footage I’ve seen he seems to be able to.

Shots at the Rim for each
Collier 154 (in 27 games)
Castle 149 (34 games)
Topic 121 (in 12 games)
Dillingham 113 (in 34 games)
Sheppard 60 (in 33 games)

Sheppard had 65 free throws vs
Collier 156
Castle 110
Dillingham 98
Topic 55 (AGAIN in 12 games)

Topic played 23 games..not 12..

[JMAC3]

Is that backed up by the stats? In the footage I’ve seen he seems to be able to.

Shots at the Rim for each
Collier 154 (in 27 games)
Castle 149 (34 games)
Topic 121 (in 12 games)
Dillingham 113 (in 34 games)
Sheppard 60 (in 33 games)

Sheppard had 65 free throws vs
Collier 156
Castle 110
Dillingham 98
Topic 55 (AGAIN in 12 games)

Topic played 23 games..not 12..

That is fine, this is just his numbers for KK

Read on Twitter

[OriAr]

The Reed argument is just how much do you trust the numbers? People can post all the BPM, steal rate, historic 3pt% all they want, but the film tells a different story... which is why the Reed supporters hardly ever post clips of him disproving the narratives.

In 33 games he shot 34 pull up 3s and made 17. Good percentage but that is not elite shooter numbers in terms of attempts.
For Example Nikola Topic shot 37 pull up threes in half the number of games and he made 15.

No argument that Reed is the better shooter, especially on catch and shoots but the shot creation is a clear weaknesses, getting to rim is a clear weakness, drawing fouls is a clear weakness. Add in the size concerns and that is a lot of Red Flags to ignore for someone poeple are pumping as a #3 or #1 prospect.

His shot creation is fine even if not elite, he can hit the pull up 3 out of the PnR (Arguably the most important shot for PGs in the NBA these days) and he's shown ability to get to the hoop even in half court when he sees the opening and finish at acceptable rate there, drawing fouls and finishing through contact. He's also shown the ability to stop and hit up the pull up mid-range jumper which is an important tool to punish defenses for playing the 3/driving lane too aggressively. He's also shown flashes of the step back 3 which if he can use consistently in the NBA will be very beneficial for him. He also has a sweet floater which unfortunately he didn't get to use much in Kentucky, it should help him a lot in the NBA.
There is no denying he'd benefit hugely from having Steph level handles (Who wouldn't really?) but even Steph wasn't Steph when he was a rookie, Reed can still very much improve his handles even after he's getting drafted. (Even if they probably won't be as good as Steph's). And even if his handles don't improve one bit (doubtful), They are already perfectly functional, with Reed very rarely turning the ball over due lousy handles and he can become a very good player in the NBA even if he never improves his handles.
Reed might not be the type of player who goes #1 in the draft usually but this class' weaknesses is well documented so you can't go wrong with Reed, even at #1.
And just because you asked, here is over an hour of film of Sheppard.

Watch on YouTube

Watch on YouTube

[CptCrunch]

Added his first name to this thread title.

Isiah Reed Sheppard is the #1 pick. Reed is mid. Isiah is near goated.

[clyde21]

thankfully someone posted YouTube mixtapes of Reed, otherwise none of us would've seen them or him play

[SelfishPlayer]

Added his first name to this thread title.

Isiah Reed Sheppard is the #1 pick. Reed is mid. Isiah is near goated.

Does anyone remember José Calderón? That's a path for success for IRS to tax the league. IRS is more explosive than Calderon and more willing to shoot at high volume so he could be much better. Calderon is an example of not having elite wiggle and still being highly productive at PG.

[RollingWave]

Added his first name to this thread title.

Isiah Reed Sheppard is the #1 pick. Reed is mid. Isiah is near goated.

Does anyone remember José Calderón? That's a path for success for IRS to tax the league. IRS is more explosive than Calderon and more willing to shoot at high volume so he could be much better. Calderon is an example of not having elite wiggle and still being highly productive at PG.

No two-player are exactly the same, but yes Calderon is a good comp offensively at least. not high volume, but uber efficient and great assist-to-turnover ratio. Calderon's prime was also juuuust before teams started to value volume threes. If we have younger Jose today teams would most likely try to get him to take more than 2-3 3PA per 36 min, (he had one season with 6 3PA but was already 32 by then.)

Calderon with better defense and hopefully a bit more volume would be like a 85% outcome for Sheppard. (I'm not totally sure he can get there as a point guard, but it's not impossible.) Calderon was among the worst guys on defense, I'm fairly confident Sheppard will easily beat that. and even then, Calderon had a 20 PER season as a low volume guard that didn't get many rebound / steals / blocks.

[JRoy]

Added his first name to this thread title.

Isiah Reed Sheppard is the #1 pick. Reed is mid. Isiah is near goated.

Does anyone remember José Calderón? That's a path for success for IRS to tax the league. IRS is more explosive than Calderon and more willing to shoot at high volume so he could be much better. Calderon is an example of not having elite wiggle and still being highly productive at PG.

No two-player are exactly the same, but yes Calderon is a good comp offensively at least. not high volume, but uber efficient and great assist-to-turnover ratio. Calderon's prime was also juuuust before teams started to value volume threes. If we have younger Jose today teams would most likely try to get him to take more than 2-3 3PA per 36 min, (he had one season with 6 3PA but was already 32 by then.)

Calderon with better defense and hopefully a bit more volume would be like a 85% outcome for Sheppard. (I'm not totally sure he can get there as a point guard, but it's not impossible.) Calderon was among the worst guys on defense, I'm fairly confident Sheppard will easily beat that. and even then, Calderon had a 20 PER season as a low volume guard that didn't get many rebound / steals / blocks.

Calderon was a solid ball handler and set up man. How is that like Sheppard?

Wouldn’t Anfernee Simons be a better comp than Calderon? Athletic, excellent outside shooter but poor playmaker and ball handler.