Acuff vs Fleming vs Brown vs Philon

[Upperclass]

Fleming will live at the rim in the league.. He is a blur when he wants to be. Wagler is a smaller Franz Wagner which isnt a very useful player in the nba. He wont have the strength to do anything on offense or defense except make hustle plays. That archetype doesnt work well in the league. Philon is a crafty, high scoring lead guard.. where teams take him is up to them but he will score 20+ and hand out plenty of assists for whomever does.

[THEJOHN_IV]

Im not sure how you can say Fleming will live at the rim in the league if he cant even finish well in college?

[JMAC3]

Fleming will live at the rim in the league.. He is a blur when he wants to be. Wagler is a smaller Franz Wagner which isnt a very useful player in the nba. He wont have the strength to do anything on offense or defense except make hustle plays. That archetype doesnt work well in the league. Philon is a crafty, high scoring lead guard.. where teams take him is up to them but he will score 20+ and hand out plenty of assists for whomever does.

I feel like his archetype doesn't always just live at the rim because they are fast. The NBA is a lot more complex than that ask Dennis Smith Jr, Exum, Dillingham, Ivey, Mudiay... you have to be able to do it all in order to have the respect to get angles to the rim in the NBA. Curry and Dame get to the rim because people have to overplay their shot, not because of their elite speed or quickness.

[King Ken]

If Wagler is in this mix I think he's got super high upside for where he's projected. Elite feel for the game, very high spatial awareness, and hypnotic handle with a solid (unusual looking) outside shot. Last time I got that vibe it was watching Tyrese Haliburton's draft tape.

Fleming reminds me of Tyrese Maxey in Ja Morant's wirey frame. I saw some Carson Wallace highlights and the passing style was similar. His handle is bad though with a high/pounding style dribble. Will be turnover prone and probably struggle with distance shooting for a while, will have to rely on dribble/pull up mid-rangers. Don't see a superstar but he's got good upside since he's a willing passer in an quick/springy athletic body. De'Aaron Fox tier imo.

Acuff reminds me of a Norman Powell-type player. Short but plays 2-3" bigger & stronger, finds ways to score. Plays fearless and takes advantage of gaps in the defense. I feel like his NBA ceiling is capped-- he looks small against college players and I didn't see a lot of variety outside of on-ball scoring for him.

Philon looks identical to Immanuel Quickley to me. Didn't watch a ton of tape. Seems low upside but solid floor.

Only player mentioned I haven't seen yet is Brown.

I think Flemings is much better than this. He's tier 2 for a reason. He's a modern Kevin Johnson. He's going to be elite in this league. He's a tier better than Fox was as a prospect

I love Wagler but I am at the point, I have no clue who to compare him to. I've accepted the fact that his finishing will not be great but it won't be bad either. His play strength is simply a lot better than it looks so that's not an issue.

I've said names in the past like Jarrett Culver, shades of Curry, and just a lot of names but no one really plays like him. He has an absolutely elite feel for the game. He can shoot it with ease. His balance is superb. His passing is elite even though his pass volume is low. You have to get the ball out of his hands constantly. The ball rarely sticks. He has an elite shooting IQ where you just never see bad shots. He's an elite player but he's not a stat but he kinda is. I don't know what the hell Wagler is. He simply never existed before. No prototype before him. He's like Boozer, he is his prototype.

Wagler was tier 1 for nearly a month because he broke all of my charts but dropped as Big Ten teams adjusted to him and made him the key of the gameplan and he struggled for it. Now he's really understanding the game as the lead guard. It looks different. I don't think he's going back to tier 1 but I would draft him over Acuff for sure.

Acuff is world class. He did a lot better offensively than I expected against Arizona. He wasn't guardable and honestly, everyone is guardable in college as a PG if you sell out to stop them. Arizona did at first in the 1st half but Arkansas was so bad outside of Acuff that they just changed their gameplan and of course, Arkansas lost.

Acuff is just impossible to guard. That's only going to get worse in the NBA. He definitely is a top 6-7 pick. Just can't see him in the top 5 though is this class.

For me, Flemings will kill his workouts and interviews which is why I think he's a likely lock for the top 5. Teams are going to have problems going against him as Wagler is definitely more of a game player and Acuff defense is extremely suspect.

Wagler and Acuff will battle it out for 6 and 7. Some teams may have Lopez and Ament in the mix as well just due to position needs or lack of needs. Lopez who is tier 3.5 is the player along with Quaintance who will skyrocket up the boards due to workouts. They will have the size and ability teams covet. Almost forgot, Mikel Brown Jr is an elite traits guy. He's going to have some teams who covet him more than Acuff and Wagler as well. So that's the three who can break the top 6-7 range outside of the two obvious guys.

For my Fox comparison I meant him in the NBA, not just as a prospect. Flemings has more upside, but it's not a knock on him at all when I'm putting him at that level. I don't see the "IT" factor that screams All-Star every year. Could be wrong as he does have the physical tools to be dominant.

I'm just imagining what if you could take Acuff's style of play/scoring mentality in Flemings' body-- now that's an easy top #3 pick.

Just watched some Mikel Brown Jr tape and thought he looked OK. I see a role player/6th man type.

Brown Jr got all of the tools like LaMelo. He just sucks right now like Ant did coming out. I actually think his tools are better than Melo for a PG.

[King Ken]

Fleming will live at the rim in the league.. He is a blur when he wants to be. Wagler is a smaller Franz Wagner which isnt a very useful player in the nba. He wont have the strength to do anything on offense or defense except make hustle plays. That archetype doesnt work well in the league. Philon is a crafty, high scoring lead guard.. where teams take him is up to them but he will score 20+ and hand out plenty of assists for whomever does.

I feel like his archetype doesn't always just live at the rim because they are fast. The NBA is a lot more complex than that ask Dennis Smith Jr, Exum, Dillingham, Ivey, Mudiay... you have to be able to do it all in order to have the respect to get angles to the rim in the NBA. Curry and Dame get to the rim because people have to overplay their shot, not because of their elite speed or quickness.

Smith Jr. Lost a step in HS.
Exum always lacked explosiveness
Dillingham is small and can't defend
Ivey had injuries that ruined him.
Mudiay just wasn't a good player. Talented but not good.

Whereas Flemings has already proven he's elite as a college PG as a true freshman playing for Kelvin Sampson. Let's just compare basic stats. Flemings DBPM is nearly as good as Rob and Smith Jr overall BPM. His offensive BPM is higher than both BPM. Come on man, really.

https://tankathon.com/players/compare?players=kingston-flemings--rob-dillingham--dennis-smith--emmanuel-mudiay--dante-exum

[SkyHook]

Flemings

Philon

Wagler
Acuff
Brown

[Chi town]

Flemings
Acuff
Wagler

Burries
Philon
Mikel

[tontoz]

I moved Burries to 9 a few weeks ago. I will probably move him up again after the season is over.

It's been awhile since Flemings had an impressive game. Wagler has slowed down ever since Boswell came back. Not sure if that is the reason or the scouting report catching up to him.

Acuff is locked in at 5 as pg1.

[King Ken]

Philon plays like a rich man's Brandon Jennings

[Upperclass]

Fleming will live at the rim in the league.. He is a blur when he wants to be. Wagler is a smaller Franz Wagner which isnt a very useful player in the nba. He wont have the strength to do anything on offense or defense except make hustle plays. That archetype doesnt work well in the league. Philon is a crafty, high scoring lead guard.. where teams take him is up to them but he will score 20+ and hand out plenty of assists for whomever does.

I feel like his archetype doesn't always just live at the rim because they are fast. The NBA is a lot more complex than that ask Dennis Smith Jr, Exum, Dillingham, Ivey, Mudiay... you have to be able to do it all in order to have the respect to get angles to the rim in the NBA. Curry and Dame get to the rim because people have to overplay their shot, not because of their elite speed or quickness.

Smith Jr. Lost a step in HS.
Exum always lacked explosiveness
Dillingham is small and can't defend
Ivey had injuries that ruined him.
Mudiay just wasn't a good player. Talented but not good.

Whereas Flemings has already proven he's elite as a college PG as a true freshman playing for Kelvin Sampson. Let's just compare basic stats. Flemings DBPM is nearly as good as Rob and Smith Jr overall BPM. His offensive BPM is higher than both BPM. Come on man, really.

https://tankathon.com/players/compare?players=kingston-flemings--rob-dillingham--dennis-smith--emmanuel-mudiay--dante-exum

The only one of those players i thought would work out in the league was Smith Jr. PRE-ACL. His game and body type changed completely afterwards. I told the draft forum all year that dillingham sucked.

Exum:
viewtopic.php?p=40612617#p40612617

Rob:
viewtopic.php?p=111259321#p111259321
viewtopic.php?p=109604059#p109604059

Smith Jr:
viewtopic.php?p=51750466#p51750466
viewtopic.php?p=53322823#p53322823

[King Ken]

I feel like his archetype doesn't always just live at the rim because they are fast. The NBA is a lot more complex than that ask Dennis Smith Jr, Exum, Dillingham, Ivey, Mudiay... you have to be able to do it all in order to have the respect to get angles to the rim in the NBA. Curry and Dame get to the rim because people have to overplay their shot, not because of their elite speed or quickness.

Smith Jr. Lost a step in HS.
Exum always lacked explosiveness
Dillingham is small and can't defend
Ivey had injuries that ruined him.
Mudiay just wasn't a good player. Talented but not good.

Whereas Flemings has already proven he's elite as a college PG as a true freshman playing for Kelvin Sampson. Let's just compare basic stats. Flemings DBPM is nearly as good as Rob and Smith Jr overall BPM. His offensive BPM is higher than both BPM. Come on man, really.

https://tankathon.com/players/compare?players=kingston-flemings--rob-dillingham--dennis-smith--emmanuel-mudiay--dante-exum

The only one of those players i thought would work out in the league was Smith Jr. PRE-ACL. His game and body type changed completely afterwards. I told the draft forum all year that dillingham sucked.

Exum:
viewtopic.php?p=40612617#p40612617

Rob:
viewtopic.php?p=111259321#p111259321
viewtopic.php?p=109604059#p109604059

Smith Jr:
viewtopic.php?p=51750466#p51750466
viewtopic.php?p=53322823#p53322823

HS Smith Jr would have been in that Francis tier. Even after that, you can see he just wasn't the same guy

[NO-KG-AI]

Some dudes have the explosiveness to get to the rim, but just don’t know how to change speed, directions, and just aren’t fluid.

Jeremiah Fears is a great example. He has a ton to work on, and he’s obviously fast as hell to, but the dude could just get where he wants to go from day one, and some guys never figure that out. It’s hard to say sometimes until we see how they manage NBA defenses.

[JMAC3]

Fleming will live at the rim in the league.. He is a blur when he wants to be. Wagler is a smaller Franz Wagner which isnt a very useful player in the nba. He wont have the strength to do anything on offense or defense except make hustle plays. That archetype doesnt work well in the league. Philon is a crafty, high scoring lead guard.. where teams take him is up to them but he will score 20+ and hand out plenty of assists for whomever does.

I feel like his archetype doesn't always just live at the rim because they are fast. The NBA is a lot more complex than that ask Dennis Smith Jr, Exum, Dillingham, Ivey, Mudiay... you have to be able to do it all in order to have the respect to get angles to the rim in the NBA. Curry and Dame get to the rim because people have to overplay their shot, not because of their elite speed or quickness.

Smith Jr. Lost a step in HS.
Exum always lacked explosiveness
Dillingham is small and can't defend
Ivey had injuries that ruined him.
Mudiay just wasn't a good player. Talented but not good.

Whereas Flemings has already proven he's elite as a college PG as a true freshman playing for Kelvin Sampson. Let's just compare basic stats. Flemings DBPM is nearly as good as Rob and Smith Jr overall BPM. His offensive BPM is higher than both BPM. Come on man, really.

https://tankathon.com/players/compare?players=kingston-flemings--rob-dillingham--dennis-smith--emmanuel-mudiay--dante-exum

Right yet they were all top 10 picks... but zero percent chance that we look back on Flemings like that because as of now through rose colored lense he is a random Tier x player.

Flemings lives at the rim and is too fast for NBA guards to keep him out of the paint. That is why he just put 11 pts vs Illinois in a loss and ended his season and 8 pts vs Arizona in the Big12 championship game loss.

[brackdan70]

Based on my analytical model's regularized strength weighed boxed plus minus metric (sBPM); Flemings is clearly in a tier of his own. This metric takes into account production against competition, discounting high stats against poor competition.

Mikel is a bit underrated by this metric as he is fairly inefficient and high variance.



Flemings is a tier 1 player for me this year. Acuff is top of tier 2, Mikel at very bottom of tier 2. LaBaron is a lot worse than Mikel as a freshman (I've added Baron's freshman season).

Nice model. Do you have data on past players and how this has correlated with NBA success?

[Upperclass]

Based on my analytical model's regularized strength weighed boxed plus minus metric (sBPM); Flemings is clearly in a tier of his own. This metric takes into account production against competition, discounting high stats against poor competition.

Mikel is a bit underrated by this metric as he is fairly inefficient and high variance.



Flemings is a tier 1 player for me this year. Acuff is top of tier 2, Mikel at very bottom of tier 2. LaBaron is a lot worse than Mikel as a freshman (I've added Baron's freshman season).

Nice model. Do you have data on past players and how this has correlated with NBA success?

College numbers dont correlate to league success. Watch the player and how they actually play. It will tell you everything you need to know.

[CptCrunch]

Based on my analytical model's regularized strength weighed boxed plus minus metric (sBPM); Flemings is clearly in a tier of his own. This metric takes into account production against competition, discounting high stats against poor competition.

Mikel is a bit underrated by this metric as he is fairly inefficient and high variance.



Flemings is a tier 1 player for me this year. Acuff is top of tier 2, Mikel at very bottom of tier 2. LaBaron is a lot worse than Mikel as a freshman (I've added Baron's freshman season).

Nice model. Do you have data on past players and how this has correlated with NBA success?

Yes. It's all on the site. And poster above is right. Single dimensional data does not correlate with NBA success. There is too much noise and the percentage of variance explained by any singular stat is too small.

But this SPM (now SPM instead of SBPM) metric has around 9% better log loss than BPM when it comes to college games forecasting.

[Chi town]

Philon plays like a rich man's Brandon Jennings

Yeah I don’t like how slight his frame is. Just don’t trust he can be a starter. Feels more 6th man.

[The-Power]

College numbers dont correlate to league success.

Any actual data to back this claim up?

Watch the player and how they actually play. It will tell you everything you need to know.

If that were the case, then I suppose you have never been wrong about a prospect?

[ReggiesKnicks]

Based on my analytical model's regularized strength weighed boxed plus minus metric (sBPM); Flemings is clearly in a tier of his own. This metric takes into account production against competition, discounting high stats against poor competition.

Mikel is a bit underrated by this metric as he is fairly inefficient and high variance.



Flemings is a tier 1 player for me this year. Acuff is top of tier 2, Mikel at very bottom of tier 2. LaBaron is a lot worse than Mikel as a freshman (I've added Baron's freshman season).

Nice model. Do you have data on past players and how this has correlated with NBA success?

College numbers dont correlate to league success. Watch the player and how they actually play. It will tell you everything you need to know.

Are you saying you have done a statistical analysis and found the correlation between college stats and NBA success to have a corelation co-efficient of 0.0?

Are you saying this is just your opinion?

Most freshman who get drafted highly are productive and produce a strong statistical profile in college. Statistics are correlated to goodness at basketball in both the NCAA and NBA, so it is weird to me, and doubtful, frankly, that there is no correlation between college stats and NBA success.

I am under the belief that 3 things have a positive correlation:

1) Age
2) College Production
3) NBA Success

[Upperclass]

College numbers dont correlate to league success.

Any actual data to back this claim up?

Watch the player and how they actually play. It will tell you everything you need to know.

If that were the case, then I suppose you have never been wrong about a prospect?

Perhaps? Players dont workout for various reasons.. However, i trust my ability to understand player skillsets and tendencies. If you would like a brief overview on the accuracy of these evaluations based on prior assessment.. just ask.