2024 NBA Draft Thread

[Hal14]

Oh good, back to @Hal14 getting all up in arms when people dare urging caution when it comes to players they like. Exciting!

edit:

And it's particularly funny in this case when this was literally a comment 12 days ago:

He plays smooth. Intrigued to see how he looks vs some tough teams..

But somehow @Duke is crazy for pointing out how he looked versus tougher teams. Makes sense.

I watched some film, pulled some stats and commented on them in order to contribute some meaningful insight to the discussion. You should try it.

[MrTribbiani]

Tyler Smith from the G-League Ignite has been very impressive. He's been more consistent than dudes like Almansa and Holland, and he has an attractive skillset for the NBA.

As of right now, he's a top ten pick IMO. I would still have Holland ahead of him (but not by much); regarding Almansa, Smith is definitely better than him (Almansa is a late first rounder).

[Chi town]

Tyler Smith from the G-League Ignite has been very impressive. He's been more consistent than dudes like Almansa and Holland, and he has an attractive skillset for the NBA.

As of right now, he's a top ten pick IMO. I would still have Holland ahead of him (but not by much); regarding Almansa, Smith is definitely better than him (Almansa is a late first rounder).

https://youtu.be/Ti5F06HSFJA?si=XiJatoHRXGbwnAYJ

Kid has a ceiling. Like his interviews too.

Seems like a more athletic Jabari.

[EvanZ]

Malik Mack (Harvard) an early sleeper

[crows2]

What are people's thoughts on Ryan Dunn from Virginia? Averaging a ridiculous 3 steals and 3 blocks per game this year. He'll be the best defender in the draft, but does he have the ability to develop enough of an offensive game to be effective?

[HadAnEffectHere]

What are people's thoughts on Ryan Dunn from Virginia? Averaging a ridiculous 3 steals and 3 blocks per game this year. He'll be the best defender in the draft, but does he have the ability to develop enough of an offensive game to be effective?

He's a top 5 pick as long as he averages >35% from three this year.

OG Anunoby.

[EvanZ]

What are people's thoughts on Ryan Dunn from Virginia? Averaging a ridiculous 3 steals and 3 blocks per game this year. He'll be the best defender in the draft, but does he have the ability to develop enough of an offensive game to be effective?

He's killing it. But is he like a small 5?

[EvanZ]

PJ Hall is also killing it for Clemson.

[EvanZ]

What do you guys think about PJ Hall as a prospect? Basically stuffs the stat sheet entirely, would you spend a second round pick on him?

On my radar for sure.

[HadAnEffectHere]

What are people's thoughts on Ryan Dunn from Virginia? Averaging a ridiculous 3 steals and 3 blocks per game this year. He'll be the best defender in the draft, but does he have the ability to develop enough of an offensive game to be effective?

He's killing it. But is he like a small 5?

No, he's definitely a SF/PF, he plays nothing like a center.

He needs to shoot well, but his jumpshot looks good and he was a good shooter in HS. We'll see what his percentages are at the end of the year. If he's 35% or higher (along with good FT% numbers), I would definitely take him top 5.

[clyde21]

nice game by Cody tonight, if he can keep up the scoring production on good efficiency he might just be top 5 just by virtue of his archetype in this class at this point.

[HadAnEffectHere]

Dunn is an absolutely monster athlete and is just huge as well. Definitely see some Aaron Gordon similarities.

Watch on YouTube

[youtube]

Watch on YouTube

/youtube]

[FarBeyondDriven]

Holland, Castle, Walter, Collier, Buzelis, Bradshaw and Carrington would all be top 5 to end of lottery picks in every draft since 2020. Combined with an excellent international class it's far from a weak class. Of course, people wont' change their minds until the YT video they got their opinion from changes theirs first. For everyone like me sick of this narrative being pushed, just be patient

I mean you have to admit there is a big difference between top 5 and end of lotto picks. And that difference alone is enough for a draft to be considered a strong or weak draft. I dont think anyone here is claiming there is no talent at all in this draft.

Maybe its not that a lot of us just wait for a youtuber to tell us if its a strong class or not. But we follow this stuff and this class heading into this year was not strong and so far the top guys havent done anything yet to change our minds.

Holland has been horrible.
Walter cant pass and isnt a stand out athlete
Carrington has been known as an inconsistent and relative unknown player and so far the only time he has played against quality opponents he hasnt looked good.
Matas hasnt played and this is coming off a year of less then stellar improvement.
Bradshaw hasnt played and we see almost a Bradshaw type player every year and they're not top 10 picks.
Castle has potential but we've only seen him play 2 games and yet to see him play against actual competition.

Right now I dont see any domestic player let alone multiple players that is making the top end of this lotto look solid. Now if the international players are the ones this year that will fill that void, cool. I have no clue, I dont follow international players. But as of right now, I see a big void of top end domestic talent. I thought that going in, havent seen anything yet to have changed that. Could it happen? Ya, hopefully it does.

not sure why you care about statistics from 18/19 year old kids playing inconsistent minutes on poorly constructed teams against men. Holland just turned 18 in July. He's so young and he's improved so dramatically in the last 12 months. You seriously claiming Holland wouldn't go top 5 to end of lottery in every draft since 2020? Similar wings that went in or around the lottery since 2020:

Williams #4
Okoro #5
Kuminga #7
Thompson #4
Thompson #5
Murray #4
Coulibaly #7
Howard #11
Dick #13

Bradshaw doesn't need to play for anyone to know he's a lottery talent. He's 7 feet, runs like a deer and has touch. There's a reason why he's a 5 star Kentucky recruit. Similar center prospects that went in or around the lottery since 2020:

Holmgren #2
Wiseman #2
Mobley #3
Smith #10
Lively #12
Duren #13
Williams #15

Walter doesn't need to pass (not that he can't like you claim) when he's an elite scorer. Similar Shooting guards prospects that went in or around the lottery since 2020:

Mathurin #6
Sharpe #7
Daniels #8
Hawkins #14
Davis #10
Williams #12
Agbaji #14
Green #2
Bouknight #11
Duarte #13
Moody #14
Vassell #11
Edwards #1

Buzelis has long been thought of as a poor man's Cooper Flagg who is a generational prospect which means Buzelis has long been considered an elite prospect even going #1 on some mocks. 6'10" athletes that can put the ball on the floor and shoot aren't a dime a dozen. There's plenty of tape on him to know this. Hopefully people behind can catch up and figure this out once/if he plays. Similar long SF/PF prospects that went in or around the lottery since 2020:

Avdija #9
Barnes #4
Wagner #8
Banchero #1
Smith #3
Sochan #9
Walker #8
Dieng #11
Miller #2
Williams #10

Castle and Carrington have great size for the position and are in control, can pass, shoot high IQ and are all around good players up there with most any of the PGs that have come out since 2020:

Scoot #2
Black #6
Wallace #10
Ivey #5
Mitchell #9
Suggs #5
Cade #1
Hayes #7
Haliburton #12
Lewis #13

There's no Wemby and there's no Flagg. Must be weak

but once you incorporate the great international class it leaves no doubt. Sarr would be a top 5 pick in every draft since 2020:

2020 - #4 at latest
2021 - #4 at latest
2022 - #4
2023 - #4

I'll readily admit there isn't a domestic kid that would be a top 3 pick in any draft since 2020 but if this class would dominate #4-14 in most of those drafts it doesn't matter. I THOUGHT you followed this stuff but you just admitted you don't pay much attention to international players which means you're basically judging this class based on there not being a top 3 domestic freshman which is absurd. I'll keep defending this draft class as long as you and the other keep injecting "it's a weak class" in every other post as you desperately try to keep that a thing

[FarBeyondDriven]

Holland, Castle, Walter, Collier, Buzelis, Bradshaw and Carrington would all be top 5 to end of lottery picks in every draft since 2020. Combined with an excellent international class it's far from a weak class. Of course, people wont' change their minds until the YT video they got their opinion from changes theirs first. For everyone like me sick of this narrative being pushed, just be patient

you're exaggerating for the sake of exaggerating.

Bradshaw hasn't even played a single minute...how are you even going to say he'd be top 5 in most drafts? based on what? Carrington also was a relatively unknown guy up until a couple of weeks ago...doubt he was even on your radar at that point...now all the sudden he's a top 5 or 10 guy in every draft?

also people keep talking about this "excellent international class" still have yet to see proof of this. Mara was supposed to be the lynchpin of the international group but he's been a disaster so far at UCLA. Almansa has been OK in GLI but we'll see. Risacher had a terrible summer even tho he's playing a bit better recently. Sarr is intriguing from a profile standpoint but so far in the NBL he himself hasn't been productive at all. what are we talking about here?

weird, I don't remember making that claim. I said he'd be anywhere from #5 to end of lottery in every draft since 2020. I guess when you watch as much film as I do you don't need college tape for certain prospects though it certainly helps. Bradshaw is 7' runs like a deer, very athletic and active defensively and has nice touch. How is it possible we were sure of Embiid and MPJ despite them not playing? Are you saying he wouldn't go in the lottery of these past several drafts? So guys like Duren, Lively, Smith are so much better? If true, now who's exaggerating?

Carrington has seemingly come out of nowhere as far as being a top guy but he's not "unknown" as a prospect. Anybody who watches H.S. games has seen him when other highly touted guys went up against him and he showed out then he just wasn't given a 5 star rating. If he had gone to Duke or Kentucky he'd likely be buried and still "unknown" but he wisely chose somewhere he would play.

I wish people would stop putting so much emphasis on statistics. It's so unimportant when it comes to evaluating prospects. We're seeing inconsistent usage, systems that don't cater to their strengths, poorly constructed rosters, playing against older competition, etc. All we should be concerned with is whether they have translatable physical and athletic traits and if they flash occasional in the aspects of the games that work in the NBA.

There's a reason why the French and Spanish teams have done so well in tournaments these recent years. They're loaded with NBA talent. Top international guys collectively are probably better than US top guys. I'm sure you attribute this to the US being weak but it's because internationals have raised their game. We definitely have better guards but they have better wings and bigs. It's a close call and my guess it'll be a 60/40 or 50/50 freshmen to international ratio in either direction in the lottery. The guys I mentioned are lottery locks imo with Sarr, Almansa, Risarcher, Sane, Topic, Ajinca and maybe Mara interspersed.

International

Topic
Ajinca
Risarcher-Sane
Almansa
Sarr-Mara

US

Collier-Castle
Walter
Holland-Edwards
Buzelis-Williams
Bradshaw

Mara chose his school poorly, likely for NIL money. But he was always the biggest project of anyone in this draft class but that doesn't mean he's not a great prospect. Giannis and Jokic were projects and taken in the late lottery and 2nd round respectively and took years to develop and that's likely what Mara will have to do. I think he's about the same project as Giannis and he needs a lot more than Jokic did coming out. In international play and in his few opportunities at UCLA I've seen enough of Mara to warrant taking him in the late lottery at this point. I think mock drafts that had him at the top were too optimistic as his body needs more development and he needs to be in better shape. But he's extremely skilled, can shoot, pass and defend around the basket. If he was getting 30 mpg like he should he'd have Chet numbers and impact. His PER 36 overseas and with UCLA is 16-10-2 with 3 blocks which is essentially what Chet did as a freshmen.

[HadAnEffectHere]

Mara is playing 5 minutes a game and plays the worst archetype in the NBA (the non-shooting center who can't move).

He is uhhhhh

Probably never being drafted into the NBA.

[The-Power]

All we should be concerned with is whether they have translatable physical and athletic traits and if they flash occasional in the aspects of the games that work in the NBA.

Looking at athletes who occasionally flash some aspects that might work in the NBA is how you end up drafting terrible basketball players that never amount to anything. While there may be some rare exceptions, there is a reason why the vast majority of NBA stars had elite production in college or overseas already. Production is not the be-all and end-all, but it's certainly important.

[Hal14]

Mara is playing 5 minutes a game and plays the worst archetype in the NBA (the non-shooting center who can't move).

He is uhhhhh

Probably never being drafted into the NBA.

Yeah that archetype is just the worst! lol

Jokic (31% from 3 the season prior to being drafted)
Sengun (30% from 3 the season prior to being drafted)
Domantas Sabonis (barely took any 3's at all the season before being drafted)
Zubac
Mason Plumlee
Mitchell Robinson
Steven Adams
I could go on...

[Hal14]

Holland just turned 18 in July. He's so young and he's improved so dramatically in the last 12 months. You seriously claiming Holland wouldn't go top 5 to end of lottery in every draft since 2020? Similar wings that went in or around the lottery since 2020:

Williams #4
Okoro #5
Kuminga #7
Thompson #4
Thompson #5
Murray #4
Coulibaly #7
Howard #11
Dick #13

C'mon now, most of these guys are nothing like Ron Holland. Gradey Dick? Are you kidding me? The best shooter in the draft, why would you compare him to Holland who can't shoot?

Same with Jett Howard. Knock down shooter - nothing like Holland. Sane with Keegan Murray - knock down shooter who had some of the best production we've seen from a high major player in the past decade - nothing like Holland.

It's a stretch to say Holland is similar to the Thompson twins. Both of the twins proved time and time again they could run the point, be a floor general, facilitator, they were arguably the 2 best passers in their draft class, with some of the best ball handling in their class too. Holland isn't any of that.

Patrick Williams is much bigger than Holland.

The only guys on your list who are remotely similar to Holland are Okoro, Coulibaliy and *maybe* Kuminga. Kuminga though is bigger and so far has kind of been a bust - not really a guy you want to take in the top 5 since he has been such a project, so raw.

Holland is most similar to Okoro and Coulibaly. But Coulibaly was not considered a lottery pick until later in the season, once he was showing some solid production in the LNB league. Let's see if Holland can match that type of production, if he can show better decision making and get his 3 pt % up (like Coulibaly did)..

Okoro has pretty much been a bust, considering how high he was drafted..

These are some other guys who Holland kind of reminds me of when looking at each player's physical attributes and skills prior to being drafted:
Josh Minott
Matthew Cleveland (looking at his freshman/sophomore year)
Kendall Brown
Peyton Watson
Jordan Walsh
Rayan Rupert
Julian Phillips

[FarBeyondDriven]

Holland just turned 18 in July. He's so young and he's improved so dramatically in the last 12 months. You seriously claiming Holland wouldn't go top 5 to end of lottery in every draft since 2020? Similar wings that went in or around the lottery since 2020:

Williams #4
Okoro #5
Kuminga #7
Thompson #4
Thompson #5
Murray #4
Coulibaly #7
Howard #11
Dick #13

C'mon now, most of these guys are nothing like Ron Holland. Gradey Dick? Are you kidding me? The best shooter in the draft, why would you compare him to Holland who can't shoot?

Same with Jett Howard. Knock down shooter - nothing like Holland. Sane with Keegan Murray - knock down shooter who had some of the best production we've seen from a high major player in the past decade - nothing like Holland.

It's a stretch to say Holland is similar to the Thompson twins. Both of the twins proved time and time again they could run the point, be a floor general, facilitator, they were arguably the 2 beast passers in their draft class, with some of the best ball handling in their class too. Holland isn't any of that.

Patrick Williams is much bigger than Holland.

The only guys on your list who are remotely similar to Holland are Okoro, Coulibaliy and *maybe* Kuminga. Kuminga though is bigger and so far has kind of been a bust - not really a guy you want to take in the top 5 since he has been such a project, so raw.

Holland is most similar to Okoro and Coulibaly. But Coulibaly was not considered a lottery pick until later in the season, once he was showing some solid production in the LNB league. Let's see if Holland can match that type of production, if he can show better decision making and get his 3 pt % up (like Coulibaly did)..

Okoro has pretty much been a bust, considering how high he was drafted..

These are some other guys who Holland kind of reminds me of when looking at each player's physical attributes and skills prior to being drafted:
Josh Minott
Matthew Cleveland (looking at his freshman/sophomore year)
Kendall Brown
Peyton Watson
Jordan Walsh
Rayan Rupert
Julian Phillips

similar tier of prospect in that they're clearly SF with similar (6'6" to 6'8") size and projectable traits not necessarily in the way they play. Each has their strengths and weaknesses but at the end of the day how are they rated as prospects? They were just provided to show that similarly rated wings (better or worse) are routinely drafted in the lottery these past several drafts meaning Holland clearly belongs as a lottery pick as well.

Holland isn't the shooter Dick was in college but he is a better athlete, defender and finisher and clearly a better prospect since he's also a year younger than Dick was last season and will actually play in the NBA. Dick can't even get on the floor due to defense which was the obvious outcome considering how bad he is on that end. He's shooting 24% from three. So what exactly did all that great college shooting against bad defenses do for him? He can't put in on the floor either. He's essentially unplayable like I figured he'd be. None of those players you mentioned are remotely close to Holland as prospects. You just took random SF out of thin air. None of them were considered lottery talents or anywhere close to that, at least by anyone serious.

Gun to my head Coulibaly and Holland are in the same tier but I have Coulibaly slightly higher and I am/was higher on him than most. I was praying he'd somehow magically fall to the Kings at one point but the scouts caught on late and he went where he belonged. Okoro didn't have the handle or smarts and despite his present shooting showing otherwise, Holland has the much better stroke. Holland is definitely a better prospect and the chances of him busting like Okoro are very slim.

[SeattleJazzFan]

ESPN now following my lead on Isaiah Collier - i had him #1 when nobody else did. not saying i'm right, but it never sucks to have ESPN hop on the bandwagon. He's been ridiculously turnover prone - like embarrassingly bad - but taking care of the ball is something that can be learned and tends to fix itself with experience.