2022 NBA Draft Part II

[buzzkilloton]

I am starting to really like this draft.

We don't have a Lebron, a Luka or even an Irving or Simmons, but the draft seems to be full of players who can reach all-star level all the way to end of the lottery.

The draft also has many plus defenders in the lotto, and many players with freakish measurables in terms of length.

I felt like the entire time its been a average draft. I think this class has gotten a bad wrap because last years class was so good. This draft will make a impact across the NBA no question with the talent thats coming up.

[SelfishPlayer]

Luka wasn't bust proof.

He absolutely was. A 6'8'' EuroLeague MVP was never going to bust, and most people also realized that at the time.

Okay. Jan Veselý...

[The-Power]

Luka wasn't bust proof.

He absolutely was. A 6'8'' EuroLeague MVP was never going to bust, and most people also realized that at the time.

Okay. Jan Veselý...

I must have missed the Jan Vesely who was a premium-sized wing that won the EuroLeague MVP before he was drafted as a teenager.

Not even Luka's detractors at the time claimed that he wouldn't at least be a serviceable NBA player, their argument revolved around upside. But if you want to be the sole exception, go ahead. There's just no point in having a discussion about it.

[SelfishPlayer]

He absolutely was. A 6'8'' EuroLeague MVP was never going to bust, and most people also realized that at the time.

Okay. Jan Veselý...

I must have missed the Jan Vesely who was a premium-sized wing that won the EuroLeague MVP before he was drafted as a teenager.

Not even Luka's detractors at the time claimed that he wouldn't at least be a serviceable NBA player, their argument revolved around upside. But if you want to be the sole exception, go ahead. There's just no point in having a discussion about it.

Serviceable can be a bust... Euro League has no relevance.

[bon]

The Kings have been taking "safe" picks for years and it hasn't done them much good.

They have? They did with Mitchell but beyond that I'm not so sure. Certainly with Bagley they tried to be cute and bet on wrongly perceived upside due to his explosive leaping ability when Luka clearly was the safe pick (ultimate bust-proof prospect even if we disregard his incredible upside that some people misjudged due to misplaced athleticism concerns). I wouldn't consider Fox a ‘safe’ pick either. Haliburton, on the other hand, was just an excellent and an obviously correct pick at #12. And that's their last four lottery selections.

I'd say so. The questions about Luka's speed/athleticism were legit. There were also question marks of how well overseas guards translated to the league considering two of the last four drafts saw them become busts (Exum/Hezonja namely). Granted I had Luka clearly over Bagley like most other people, this is just what the skepticism was at the time. Their most common comps were Harden and Bosh so I thought it was pretty clear that Luka was the higher upside pick and Bagley was less risky. Overall the Kings viewed rebounding and energy as being more translatable assets than slow iso scoring.

As for Fox, sure, and Haliburton was obvious because he fell in the draft.

Outside of those guys, my post was more referring to picks like Stauskas, Robinson, Cauley-Stein etc. and Mitchell like you mentioned. Specialists in college who never had great upside but were all supposed to be safe options

[eminence]

Anybody know if DIII guy Seth Stanley went to any invitational like things?

[HotelVitale]

Luka wasn't bust proof.

He absolutely was. A 6'8'' EuroLeague MVP was never going to bust, and most people also realized that at the time.

Best way to draft terribly is to do stuff like that. 'He has X characteristic, has Y experience, and can do Z thing exactly like this other all-star player.' Every single type of player has succeeded and failed, the laundry list of comparisons and facts doesn't tell you what a player's chances are. All comes down to these little margins of 'will this thing translate, will this red flag be real, will he be able to be good enough at X to compensate for Y,' etc. (Though without fail for every draft success or bust, half the internet and all of sports media will still say 'how could anyone fail to see how his talent/drive/skill/past experience would make him amazing?' or 'which idiot missed that he was too slow/skinny/passion-less/whatever to have a prayer of making it in the NBA?!?')

In this case, imagine Luka wasn't a true wizard at reading space and anticipating at the NBA level, is he a particularly good player? Probably not an outright bust but just another big ball-handler who's pretty solid at getting a bucket. Or even if he was like 15% worse as a shooter off the dribble and was just kinda good (and not a master) at using his body control to get to the line? He could still create but not very efficiently, so is he maybe a 6th man then?

[eminence]

Luka was as close to bust proof as players come in the one and done/hs to pros era.

[SelfishPlayer]

Luka was as close to bust proof as players come in the one and done/hs to pros era.

That can't be true being that he is still a flawed player right now. Bust proof or guaranteed to not disappoint is reserved for Lebron James.

[eminence]

Luka was as close to bust proof as players come in the one and done/hs to pros era.

That can't be true being that he is still a flawed player right now. Bust proof or guaranteed to not disappoint is reserved for Lebron James.

If the point is that nobody is 100% bust proof, sure.

But nah, Luka came in with a higher floor than LeBron. As evidenced by him being better than LeBron as a rookie.

[WargamesX]

The Kings have been taking "safe" picks for years and it hasn't done them much good.

They have? They did with Mitchell but beyond that I'm not so sure. Certainly with Bagley they tried to be cute and bet on wrongly perceived upside due to his explosive leaping ability when Luka clearly was the safe pick (ultimate bust-proof prospect even if we disregard his incredible upside that some people misjudged due to misplaced athleticism concerns). I wouldn't consider Fox a ‘safe’ pick either. Haliburton, on the other hand, was just an excellent and an obviously correct pick at #12. And that's their last four lottery selections.

I'd say so. The questions about Luka's speed/athleticism were legit. There were also question marks of how well overseas guards translated to the league considering two of the last four drafts saw them become busts (Exum/Hezonja namely). Granted I had Luka clearly over Bagley like most other people, this is just what the skepticism was at the time. Their most common comps were Harden and Bosh so I thought it was pretty clear that Luka was the higher upside pick and Bagley was less risky. Overall the Kings viewed rebounding and energy as being more translatable assets than slow iso scoring.

As for Fox, sure, and Haliburton was obvious because he fell in the draft.

Outside of those guys, my post was more referring to picks like Stauskas, Robinson, Cauley-Stein etc. and Mitchell like you mentioned. Specialists in college who never had great upside but were all supposed to be safe options

Exactly, 20/20 hindsight about Luka being the safe pick. European players being taken high and ending up busts was the norm. Plus he had conditioning issues that mitigated his perceived upside. It’s wasn’t considered a guarantee he would be so good offensively that they build a offense where they could “hide” him defensively.

[The-Power]

Exactly, 20/20 hindsight about Luka being the safe pick. European players being taken high and ending up busts was the norm. Plus he had conditioning issues that mitigated his perceived upside. It’s wasn’t considered a guarantee he would be so good offensively that they build a offense where they could “hide” him defensively.

It's not hindsight when everyone was talking about it at that time. You can't compare Luka to any other highly drafted European player because he was at a completely different level compared to any of them, even if you thought some of them had higher ceilings than Luka. Also, Luka didn't need to become as good as he has to not be considered a bust. Luka was at least a low-level starting player the moment he stepped onto an NBA court. Even if he had never improved he would not have busted, and that is the entire point.

But this discussion is leading nowhere and neither of us can present conclusive evidence to prove a counterfactual, so I'll just leave it at that. Still, to insinuate that Bagley was somehow a ‘safer’ pick than Luka is pretty indefensible to me and also does not match the prevalent discussions around these two prospects at the time (with Luka's detractors mostly calling his ceiling into question, and Bagley's mostly fans marveling about his upside due to his impressive athletic ability).

Just to point out some actual opinions around that time that all paint the same picture, which was honestly very easy to see (and with that, I'm out).

Spoiler:

Why Luka Doncic might be the safest pick in the NBA draft

https://sports.yahoo.com/luka-doncic-might-safest-pick-nba-draft-144228512.html

Doncic has the chance to be special, but even if he never blows up, no prospect in the draft has a higher floor.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2778816-luka-doncic-2018-nba-draft-scouting-report-for-dallas-mavericks-pick

Certainly a high NBA-floor as a point forward type and if his skills and decision making continue to improve true superstar ceiling. One of the best international prospects the NBA has ever seen.

https://www.thestepien.com/luka-doncic/

Doncic obviously doesn't have anywhere near the same physical tools as Giannis, but I really don't think there's a single player in this draft class (or 2017 for that matter) who could step on the court and make the type of impact he has in FIBA, Euroleague or ACB play at that age. Now that we've been able to see him do it against legitimate NBA players in their prime, like Kristaps Porzingis, Marc Gasol, Evan Fournier, Pau Gasol, Rubio and others, it really eliminates a lot of the "mystery" involved in translating his production from Europe to the NBA.

https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/20757282/should-luka-doncic-early-favorite-no-1-pick-2018-nba-draft

Luka Doncic a low risk in NBA Draft, though ceiling leaves questions

https://arizonasports.com/story/1549706/luka-doncic-low-risk-nba-draft-ceiling-leaves-questions/

[SelfishPlayer]

Luka was as close to bust proof as players come in the one and done/hs to pros era.

That can't be true being that he is still a flawed player right now. Bust proof or guaranteed to not disappoint is reserved for Lebron James.

If the point is that nobody is 100% bust proof, sure.

But nah, Luka came in with a higher floor than LeBron. As evidenced by him being better than LeBron as a rookie.

He has never been better than a healthy Lebron. The game has changed so its continuously easier for perimeter players to produce.

[Goldbum]

What are your thoughts on Dalen Terry? I think he can ay some SF and is intriguing on the wing...

[CptCrunch]

I want to make a post on the #4.

There is a little too much smoke/emphasis in the media on making that #4 appear in tier 1.

Being the best of the worst (in terms of being a guard) because the top 3 are all PF/C doesn't make Ivey all of a sudden a tier 1 prospect.

[WargamesX]

Exactly, 20/20 hindsight about Luka being the safe pick. European players being taken high and ending up busts was the norm. Plus he had conditioning issues that mitigated his perceived upside. It’s wasn’t considered a guarantee he would be so good offensively that they build a offense where they could “hide” him defensively.

It's not hindsight when everyone was talking about it at that time. You can't compare Luka to any other highly drafted European player because he was at a completely different level compared to any of them, even if you thought some of them had higher ceilings than Luka. Also, Luka didn't need to become as good as he has to not be considered a bust. Luka was at least a low-level starting player the moment he stepped onto an NBA court. Even if he had never improved he would not have busted, and that is the entire point.

But this discussion is leading nowhere and neither of us can present conclusive evidence to prove a counterfactual, so I'll just leave it at that. Still, to insinuate that Bagley was somehow a ‘safer’ pick than Luka is pretty indefensible to me and also does not match the prevalent discussions around these two prospects at the time (with Luka's detractors mostly calling his ceiling into question, and Bagley's mostly fans marveling about his upside due to his impressive athletic ability).

Just to point out some actual opinions around that time that all paint the same picture, which was honestly very easy to see (and with that, I'm out).

Spoiler:

Why Luka Doncic might be the safest pick in the NBA draft

https://sports.yahoo.com/luka-doncic-might-safest-pick-nba-draft-144228512.html

Doncic has the chance to be special, but even if he never blows up, no prospect in the draft has a higher floor.

https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2778816-luka-doncic-2018-nba-draft-scouting-report-for-dallas-mavericks-pick

Certainly a high NBA-floor as a point forward type and if his skills and decision making continue to improve true superstar ceiling. One of the best international prospects the NBA has ever seen.

https://www.thestepien.com/luka-doncic/

Doncic obviously doesn't have anywhere near the same physical tools as Giannis, but I really don't think there's a single player in this draft class (or 2017 for that matter) who could step on the court and make the type of impact he has in FIBA, Euroleague or ACB play at that age. Now that we've been able to see him do it against legitimate NBA players in their prime, like Kristaps Porzingis, Marc Gasol, Evan Fournier, Pau Gasol, Rubio and others, it really eliminates a lot of the "mystery" involved in translating his production from Europe to the NBA.

https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/20757282/should-luka-doncic-early-favorite-no-1-pick-2018-nba-draft

Luka Doncic a low risk in NBA Draft, though ceiling leaves questions

https://arizonasports.com/story/1549706/luka-doncic-low-risk-nba-draft-ceiling-leaves-questions/

We could just bump the thread from that year….. if we did we would see a lot of post talking about his high ceiling and his low floor. Keep in mind I remember very acutely being pro Luka, but I also remember being on boards like this debating him too. We don’t talk about it now as fans because he is so great at the end of the season, but Luka’s summer conditioning is trash and that was another reason why he was debatable. Now did everyone think the Kings messed up taking Bagley… yeah but there was a logic for it at the time that Luka wasn’t going to translate and he was already fat.

[SelfishPlayer]

Let's get this back on track talking about 2022 prospects rather than NBA players that will not be winning a championship this year. Kendall Brown is a can't miss prospect. What's a can't miss prospect to me? Lebron James? No that's too easy. Can't miss prospects for me were guys like Andrew Wiggins, Klay Thompson, Zach Lavine, and now Kendell Brown. He is guaranteed to earn his 10 year NBA full pension after a successful career as a high level starting NBA player. He may be an All Star, but he certainly will be a high level starter for many many seasons.

[SelfishPlayer]

The prospect that I question the most is Keegan Murray. He's an older under average height PF prospect with only a year of serious production. People call him a wing. What ever happened to stretch fours? He doesn't play or move like a wing to me. He looks like your typical Tobias Harris, Obi Toppin, James Johnson, Derrick Williams, etc.

[MemphisX]

The prospect that I question the most is Keegan Murray. He's an older under average height PF prospect with only a year of serious production. People call him a wing. What ever happened to stretch fours? He doesn't play or move like a wing to me. He looks like your typical Tobias Harris, Obi Toppin, James Johnson, Derrick Williams, etc.

It is the reason why I never saw it with him. His movement does not scream high level player. Doubt he makes my final top 10.

[SelfishPlayer]

The prospect that I question the most is Keegan Murray. He's an older under average height PF prospect with only a year of serious production. People call him a wing. What ever happened to stretch fours? He doesn't play or move like a wing to me. He looks like your typical Tobias Harris, Obi Toppin, James Johnson, Derrick Williams, etc.

It is the reason why I never saw it with him. His movement does not scream high level player. Doubt he makes my final top 10.

Yeah, I would go with several younger guys in the lottery over him. I like Ochai Agbaji as an older prospect over Keegan Murray. He is a superior athlete and shooter. They both are alike in not having great feels for the game unlike a Kendell Brown. Jalen Williams is a guy that I favor over Keegan Murray.