2024 NBA Draft Thread

[FarBeyondDriven]

This reminds me of 2013. We are probably not looking at a guy up top where it seems clear they are a franchise player, or all-NBA player. You are shooting for someone who can make a couple of all-star games if things break right. I don't think it is quite that bad, but in terms of the experience of desperately searching for someone that dramatically alters the trajectory of a franchise, that's what it feels like.

Sarr is essentially Mobley. I seem to remember everyone saying Mobley was elite and a potential franchise player. Yet the comparable Sarr, who has shown more at this stage, isn't?

Last year's class, which most claim was strong, had Wemby, Scoot, Miller, older twins that can't shoot, some decent wing depth and below average guards. This year has better guards, better bigs (outside of Wemby) overall, and comparable wings (slight edge to 2023 imo) yet this class is a weak class? Makes no sense.

Again, I think it just comes down to whether you're good at evaluating prospects or not. If you're saying 2024 is a weak class, you're just not. Full stop. Not saying it's elite, or even great. I just know it's not weak. No matter how many times the handful of you guys state this in all of your posts, it still isn't true. It was premature 12 months ago, when the places you get your opinions from, guys like Vecenie, or mock drafts off The Athletic or The Ringer said it, and it's now an old and stale take 12 months later after seeing these kids play in international tournaments, in college and the G-League.

There's overwhelming evidence now that it's not weak. If you're clinging to that take it's out of stubborness in refusing to admit you're wrong or you're simply bad at evaluating prospects. Hate to be harsh but we seem to have a lot of posters that fit that description in here. And just because you all agree with each other doesn't make it true.

This will be my last post defending against the onslaught of bad takes. Just know I'm laughing at all, each and every time I read "it's a weak class" that you purposely insert in most of your posts, almost as to troll. But I won't be enticed to bother responding anymore

[Hal14]

I don’t see anything special about Knecht. I think pelle Larson on Arizona is a similar player. Tennessee doesn’t really have anyone else and he has a green light every possession.

Call me when Pelle Larsson has back to back seasons scoring 20 PPG, with 3 FG% around 40% in both seasons on high volume. And call me when Larsson is the go-to scorer on a team that's arguably a top 10 squad in the country.

[EvanZ]

Most of the top Freshmen are combo guards, that tells you it's a weak class. The archetype itself is not the one NBA front offices "love". Not saying those guys can't be stars, of course, we have plenty of examples. But they are harder to build around than wings and large primary creators.

[WargamesX]

no, that's like literally what makes it a bad class. there are like 3 noteworthy freshmen right now.

i dont want to sound hyperbolic but I don't think ive been less enthused about a class since I've been following the draft closely.

Yeah but in a world with expanded overseas leagues, the G league ignite, and several sophomores/upper classmen who have become good and sometimes great NBA players why are you stuck on the Freshmen. I mean we can’t even gauge them fairly anymore because instead of trying to go somewhere to show off for the draft they group together at whatever schools can offer them the most NIL money.

Let’s see where these kids are by March and then even post draft before we call them a bust year. If the Covid drafts could produce some really good players I am sure scouts will find the best this year too.

1) no one is saying good players can't be found in this draft or any draft

2) relatively speaking, it's a weak draft by every measure, with the prior that it was also a historically weak HS recruiting class

3) one and dones are the lifeblood of any lottery...every draft has decent upperclassmen but what really differentiates drafts is the upper tier talent/lotto talent. who's the top prospect right now and how high does he go in the 23 draft? or the one before?

4) we'll see if things change by April but the information that we have now is that it's a bad class

---

right now Buzelis is my #1 in this draft and I'm not sure I'd take him top 5 in the 2023 draft, in the 2022 draft there is no way he goes higher than 4th. in the 2021 class he's most likely in the Franz Wagner range (8-10).

if you disagree fine but don't be surprised if a lot of people feel that it's a very weak class.

I think you're over hyping one-and-done players because, traditionally, that was the lifeblood of the lottery, but the importance of the lottery a few years later ceases.

Three of the best players in the league are Euro products. There are multiple teams right now whose best players were not freshmen when they were drafted, and as I said, the NIL has messed up college ball because the best players all go to the best school for guaranteed NIL money, so we're not seeing their best games because of the glut on those teams. I think this will be one of those years where some really good players get taken late because this isn't an easy scouted draft.

[EvanZ]

Again, I think it just comes down to whether you're good at evaluating prospects or not. If you're saying 2024 is a weak class, you're just not. Full stop. Not saying it's elite, or even great. I just know it's not weak. No matter how many times the handful of you guys state this in all of your posts, it still isn't true. It was premature 12 months ago, when the places you get your opinions from, guys like Vecenie, or mock drafts off The Athletic or The Ringer said it, and it's now an old and stale take 12 months later after seeing these kids play in international tournaments, in college and the G-League.

Not only are you just objectively wrong, you are making bad assumptions. I can't speak for everyone, but in my case, I literally don't read or visit any of the sources you are mentioning so I have no idea what their takes on this class are. I am not on Twitter. I don't look at mock drafts. My opinions are 100% my own based on what I watch and the stats that I compile.

AND IN MY OPINION this is an extremely weak college class. The GLI prospects seem fairly weak from what I've seen. I can't speak as much to the Intls yet, haven't dug into those. If you want to believe this class is "good" or every class has exactly the same amount of talent or some new age bull like that, it's your prerogrative. Good luck.

[EvanZ]

I should note that it is possible for people to actually be negatively biased by what they read. It sounds like someone is so anti-Vecenie that he has developed a severe contrarian bias against whatever the man says LMAO.


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[crows2]

It was a weak high school class (partly because there were no superstar prospects), and it seems to be trending towards a weak freshman class, which makes sense.

Castle is the one that might strengthen that a bit; he hasn't played enough to know whether he has top 3 potential, but it's possible. Of the others who were regarded as top draft prospects, Walter has been good, Collier, Williams and Wagner have been okay, and Edwards and Jackson have been poor. Bradshaw's only just come back from injury, so he'll be an interesting watch. I haven't seen McCain enough, but he certainly hasn't shone. Dillingham, Sheppard and Carrington have been pleasant surprises. As I said, the draft probably needs one college player to absolutely pop, and Castle seems like the most likely, with maybe Williams the other.

The multiyear college prospects always seem to be a crapshoot (which makes sense given the majority of them simply weren't good enough to be drafted highly as a freshman). Proctor and Clingan were the exception to this but I'm not sure they've done enough so far this season to improve their standing any further. Ware and Bona have probably moved up the order, although I'd be surprised if either of them are NBA starters. Dunn is probably the most interesting one to watch, as he looks like the best defender in the draft and could be a lottery talent if he can demonstrate an offensive game.

The G-League prospects have also been underwhelming (again, maybe not overly surprising given the weak HS class), although that may change. Holland desperately needs to improve, and I at least think he's more likely to do that than someone like Edwards. Buzelis, like Castle, is the draft's other wildcard. If he pops now that he's back from injury, the draft looks much stronger. His floor is probably around the 10 range but his ceiling is top 3. I loved Almansa prior to his G-League stint but I'm not as convinced about him now. He's still a 1st rounder but he may not be a lottery pick. I personally don't think Smith is a top of the draft kind of prospect, but he's been a pleasant surprise.

Where this draft shines is clearly the international prospects. Topic and Sarr both look like potential top 3 prospects. If they can continue their ascent, together with Castle and/or Buzelis popping, then the draft will at least have some elite talent. I guess the issue with this draft is that none of these guys are sure things, and the only one I really trust at the moment is Topic, who still has his weaknesses.

The depth of international prospects is extremely good, with Risacher looking like a top 10 prospect now and Salaun a probable 1st rounder and maybe even a lottery pick. Klintman and Mara (counting him as an International) may also be 1st rounders, although I'm not convinced about Mara's NBA ability.

Essentially, if by the end of this season we have 3 or 4 solid top prospects (potentially Topic, Sarr, Castle and Buzelis), then the draft at least looks respectable, as it will inevitably end up having around the same level of depth as every other draft. IF, however, Castle and Buzelis both struggle, Holland and Edwards don't improve, and Collier and Wagner can't convince scouts that they'll be efficient NBA PGs (all very possible scenarios), then it might be a rough draft at the top.

[EvanZ]

I mean just look at Collier. He's projected as the #1 pick? He's so much worse than Ant was as a prospect. He is on pace to have 4-5 dunks this entire season. Ant had 27! Collier is way less explosive than Ant. Just a completely different ballpark. If he's #1 that's the worst #1 pick in a long time, maybe going back to Bennet.

[clyde21]

any time you have to rely on internationals or older college players instead of OADs you know you're talking about a bad class, that's just the fact.

im not really sure why this triggers some people so much

[babyjax13]

This reminds me of 2013. We are probably not looking at a guy up top where it seems clear they are a franchise player, or all-NBA player. You are shooting for someone who can make a couple of all-star games if things break right. I don't think it is quite that bad, but in terms of the experience of desperately searching for someone that dramatically alters the trajectory of a franchise, that's what it feels like.

Sarr is essentially Mobley. I seem to remember everyone saying Mobley was elite and a potential franchise player. Yet the comparable Sarr, who has shown more at this stage, isn't?

Last year's class, which most claim was strong, had Wemby, Scoot, Miller, older twins that can't shoot, some decent wing depth and below average guards. This year has better guards, better bigs (outside of Wemby) overall, and comparable wings (slight edge to 2023 imo) yet this class is a weak class? Makes no sense.

Again, I think it just comes down to whether you're good at evaluating prospects or not. If you're saying 2024 is a weak class, you're just not. Full stop. Not saying it's elite, or even great. I just know it's not weak. No matter how many times the handful of you guys state this in all of your posts, it still isn't true. It was premature 12 months ago, when the places you get your opinions from, guys like Vecenie, or mock drafts off The Athletic or The Ringer said it, and it's now an old and stale take 12 months later after seeing these kids play in international tournaments, in college and the G-League.

There's overwhelming evidence now that it's not weak. If you're clinging to that take it's out of stubborness in refusing to admit you're wrong or you're simply bad at evaluating prospects. Hate to be harsh but we seem to have a lot of posters that fit that description in here. And just because you all agree with each other doesn't make it true.

This will be my last post defending against the onslaught of bad takes. Just know I'm laughing at all, each and every time I read "it's a weak class" that you purposely insert in most of your posts, almost as to troll. But I won't be enticed to bother responding anymore

Sarr is the player I've watched the most and the player I like the most at this point. I see something like Myles Turner, who is an excellent player, but he's not the caliber of player you want to pick at 1. The one guy who might be toward the top I've not watched is Topic, and he's going to have to blow me away to not be underwhelmed by this draft class. Kind of odd to call everyone who disagrees with you stupid, too. I don't get everything right, but I enjoy evaluating prospects and I think I'm okay at it. There 100 percent are more knowledgeable people on the board, but from what I can see, they mostly agree that it is a worse class at the top than normal. Perhaps you'll be right that it is much better than anticipated, and if so, stars for you. But so far, I do not see it at all. It is a bad freshman class that has to be offset by an amazing international class (and it is pretty good, but I am not seeing amazing right now), and/or amazing Ignite players (and tbh, I'm highest on Buzelis and Smith on Gleague Ignite, we'll see how they develop - I have felt for a while that Holland is pretty low skill, has worse measurables and athleticism than people thing, and has something functionally weird about his biomechanics that adversely affects his game b/c he's very rigid all the time).

[TheDraftGuy]

This reminds me of 2013. We are probably not looking at a guy up top where it seems clear they are a franchise player, or all-NBA player. You are shooting for someone who can make a couple of all-star games if things break right. I don't think it is quite that bad, but in terms of the experience of desperately searching for someone that dramatically alters the trajectory of a franchise, that's what it feels like.

I think it's a mix of 2013 and 2014.

2013 is no projected superstar MVPs and 2014, where there are All-Stars and quality starters are spread throughout the draft but almost no one truly special.

More 'average' than not but with no standouts

As a caveat, the thing about the modern NBA is that international talent has reached a level on par with the 60s NBA.

You drop Embiid, Jokic, SGA, Giannis, Wemby, Wagner, Lauri, Gobert, etc into that era to replace Wilt/Oscar/Russell/etc.......and you probably get the same historic impact.

So, imagine that you take the late 90s/2000s NBA, filled with Americans, and drop in the 60s NBA on top. Suddenly, just about every draft class since the drafts that Giannis/Embiid/Jokic came in has produced one international player with perennial All-Star talent.

Makes the overall talent less bad than it was previously.

[HadAnEffectHere]

Almansa shouldn't be on any draft boards, what's his upside? Any energy garbage man? Does that have any value in the NBA these days?

The Ignite are getting absolutely killed on defense in every game.

[clyde21]

Almansa got way overrated after a couple of nice games in FIBA..he has some nice tools and maybe elite rim running potential but haven't seen anything yet that screams I should be taking this guy lotto, let alone top 5 like some were saying

[clyde21]

i will say again, the two guys that have the most potential to actually change that top of this class are Buzelis and Darlan if it comes together for them, they are the only ones with the raw talent, ceiling and archetype that could potentially warrant #1 and #2 picks (which is where I have them ranked now as placeholders)...other than that we'll see.

[babyjax13]

i will say again, the two guys that have the most potential to actually change that top of this class are Buzelis and Darlan if it comes together for them, they are the only ones with the raw talent, ceiling and archetype that could potentially warrant #1 and #2 picks (which is where I have them ranked now as placeholders)...other than that we'll see.

I like them too. I think those two, Sarr and Castle are the players that excite me most. Topic is the other guy I think could crack that top group that I just have not seen much of.

[tester551]

i will say again, the two guys that have the most potential to actually change that top of this class are Buzelis and Darlan if it comes together for them, they are the only ones with the raw talent, ceiling and archetype that could potentially warrant #1 and #2 picks (which is where I have them ranked now as placeholders)...other than that we'll see.

Who is Darlan? I dont see any name that even resembles that on Tankathon.

[babyjax13]

i will say again, the two guys that have the most potential to actually change that top of this class are Buzelis and Darlan if it comes together for them, they are the only ones with the raw talent, ceiling and archetype that could potentially warrant #1 and #2 picks (which is where I have them ranked now as placeholders)...other than that we'll see.

Who is Darlan? I dont see any name that even resembles that on Tankathon.

Thierry Darlan. Really interesting player but looks terrible on the ignite so far, unfortunately.

[clyde21]

i will say again, the two guys that have the most potential to actually change that top of this class are Buzelis and Darlan if it comes together for them, they are the only ones with the raw talent, ceiling and archetype that could potentially warrant #1 and #2 picks (which is where I have them ranked now as placeholders)...other than that we'll see.

Who is Darlan? I dont see any name that even resembles that on Tankathon.

French cat on the GLI, originally from Central African Republic, has some really nice tools, jumbo PG potential who can shoot, but very raw and still a work in progress. he along with Buz are my only hopes for this class.

Read on Twitter

[Coeur]

I been calling Anton Watson a 1st round pick for 3-4 years. Off the whole time or way too early?


I think Anton Watson should be 15-25 in this draft. Big combo forward is exactly what the nba wants in F’s rn

[crows2]

Bradshaw with 17 pts, 11 rbds and 3 blks in his first meaningful minutes (against Penn).